You can't, agreed, we can never with a 100% certainty. But again sometimes [analogous to an hypothesis advancing to theory stage] the evidence is such [as per re-offending with the same crime after parole] that we must consider it as "highly likely" that a re-offence will occur...Not trying to teach Granny to suck eggs, but most scientific theory, remain as that, we are always open to further observational and experimental evidence, modifying or changing that theory.
[1]which one is the greater danger? ANS: The obvious continued danger to society after throwing away a lifeline given to him.[previous parole]
[2]How do you confine them for life without violating their rights? ANS: After throwing away their previous lifeline,[parole] coupled with the brutality and violence of the crime, not to mention "caught in the act" do they really have any rights left?
Which incidently as I have mentioned, is why I am against the death penalty. That is reasonably final.😉