I think that there’s going to be a lot of noise and not much action for a while. It’s not so easy to fire federal employees. I think the first attempts will result in some lawsuits and probably an injunction and blaming of the “deep state” because baby didn’t get his binky.
Eventually various organizations will be able to re-do their org charts to reduce billets, but I’ve seen efforts to do this take more than a year before implementation. And other than the political appointees, few are going to be willing to reduce headcount unless there’s also a reduction in expected results, but that’s not an improvement in efficiency.
Budget cuts will also affect this, but that, too will take time to bubble through. And representatives won’t like losing money coming into their districts. People don’t always realize that a lot of federal employees work outside of DC.
Another tactic might be to shift even more work to contractors, even though that doesn’t really make anything cheaper or more efficient. They’ve been doing this for years. (the number of federal employees hasn’t changed all that much for the last ~50 years, even though the population has almost doubled) But it does give money to businesses.
My bet is he’s going to try and fire any Biden administration holdovers before any of his own people.