Airbrush

"Who should have children?" People living in North Korea, Russia, Europe, and China, for starters. There are dwindling workers, in those countries, to support the elderly retired. The USA will have to recon with this eventually. "Countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) below 2 children per woman are generally considered to have fertility levels below the replacement rate, which is roughly 2.1 children per woman in most developed countries. This threshold is necessary for a population to replace itself without migration. As of recent data, many countries fall into this category, particularly in Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Most European countries have fertility rates below 2, including: Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Hungary, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland. Many Asian countries also have low fertility rates, including: South Korea (among the lowest globally), Japan, China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam. Iran and Sri Lanka. Several countries in North and South America have TFRs below 2: United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. Australia and New Zealand have fertility rates below 2. While most African nations have fertility rates above 2, a few exceptions exist: North African countries like Tunisia and Libya. "Factors Contributing to Low Fertility Rates: Urbanization: Urban lifestyles tend to reduce fertility rates. Education and Employment: Higher levels of education and workforce participation among women are associated with lower fertility. Economic Factors: High costs of living, child-rearing, and housing can deter larger families. Cultural Shifts: Changing attitudes toward marriage, family size, and gender roles. Access to Contraception: Widespread availability and use of contraceptives reduce unplanned pregnancies. "Low fertility rates are often linked to aging populations and concerns about labor shortages, leading some countries to adopt policies to encourage higher birth rates, such as paid parental leave, subsidies, and housing benefits." Birth Rate by Country 2024

I never said Musk posted these sh!t. Of course, Musk MAY NOT have anything to do with these bogus Youtubes about his warp drive and anti-gravity, but Musk never disagrees with them. The videos could be posted by ANYBODY, by Musk or Trump supporters, or even Russia. He never debunks them, why would he? This is research into WHAT is being posted to the general public. You are obviously too intelligent to be considered general public. You are even a MODERATOR on the science discussion site! That is above my pay grade. Musk never says the bogus videos are false.

Besides pretending to be making progress on a "warp drive" Elon is also claiming A "Revolutionary Anti-Gravity Fighter Jet." Let me save you from watching this 20-minute Youtube about Musk's "anti-gravity." I watched this Youtube and there is NOTHING about anti-gravity in it. That is how easily Elon lies. He has many Youtubes that say Elon is working on "anti-gravity" or "warp drive," but there is nothing about anti-gravity or warp drive in any of those Youtubes. Try searching Youtube for "Elon Musk Warp Drive" and I found at least EIGHT videos about his non-existent "warp drive."

In big wave surfing the wave heights are estimated based on how tall the surfer riding the wave is. The surfer is the unit of measure. IS THERE A WAY to use radar, lasers, GPS, or whatever electronic devices, to exactly measure the height of a breaking wave, from the shore in real time? For example, this is how a wave's height is currently estimated: Mike Parsons at Cortes Bank on Jan 6, 2008. 13 times overhead. 13 x 6 = 78 feet. The actual estimate was 77 feet. Here is a recent wave at Mavericks, on Dec 23, 2024, that some are calling 100 feet tall. But how tall is it really?

Recently I saw an interview of Musk and he was sounding very normal, reasonable, and intelligent and was also answering questions seriously. Then he interjected "See you on Mars you suckers!" and burst out laughing.

Excellent observation. I hadn't thought of that. Elections are not purely random. In your estimation, how many of the past 11 elections were "easy" to predict? I should consult with some Historians. Here is a list of the major candidates for U.S. President from the two leading parties over the past 11 elections, spanning from 1984 to 2024: Election Year Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2024 Kamala Harris Donald Trump 2020 Joe Biden Donald Trump 2016 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump 2012 Barack Obama Mitt Romney 2008 Barack Obama John McCain 2004 John Kerry George W. Bush 2000 Al Gore George W. Bush 1996 Bill Clinton Bob Dole 1992 Bill Clinton George H. W. Bush 1988 Michael Dukakis George H. W. Bush 1984 Walter Mondale Ronald Reagan Wikipedia Interesting to note that. I should post your reply below several of Lichtman's Youtubes. ☺️

I think his insane obsession with Mars and Spacex will distract from the job of running the House. Elon doesn't really care that much about Tesla, because he already acquired the power and wealth he was looking for all his life. He already thinks he is "The Elon" of the North America continent. That is fine with Trump in his quest for control of North America.

What is the probability that someone could correctly GUESS 9 out of the past 11 elections? Lichtman is now 82% accurate.

Do you think it would be a good idea voting Elon Musk into power as Speaker of the House? Senators Rand Paul and Mike Lee, and Margie Green have suggested Elon be voted into Speaker of the House. Elon has admitted to being depressed even before becoming wealthy. He treats his depression using Ketamine and psychedelic drugs. Elon Musk has undue influence over the president through his $270 million in support of the Trump campaign and has spent 55 days ($2000/day) staying in a cottage at Mar-A-Lago, sleeping only a few hundred feet from Trump. Trump bragging to friends Musk renting cottage from him at $2K a night: report - Raw Story Magic Mushrooms. LSD. Ketamine. The Drugs That Power Silicon Valley. - WSJ "The biographer of Elon Musk...has raised concerns over the mental health of the Tesla boss after his unhinged comments on his social media platform X. Seth Abramson has warned that Musk might be "going mad" and could "endanger us all" due to his increasingly erratic behavior." Elon Musk is going mad, claims his Harvard-educated biographer "Elon Musk has spoken openly about his struggles with depression, even before he became a billionaire. He has said that he has been diagnosed with clinical depression and that he has had suicidal thoughts. He has also said that he uses ketamine to help manage his depression." Why does Elon Musk suffer from depression with all the massive money? Why is he taking ketamine to help him? Perhaps he needs to change his life style, being depression is likely a psychological condition, not a disease? - Quora "Musk has suggested building a fleet of 1,000 Starships, with each capable of carrying 100+ passengers per trip. These 1,000 spacecrafts would be launched three times a day, making frequent trips to Mars during launch windows (approximately every 26 months when Earth and Mars align favorably). SpaceX is ramping up production of Starships to facilitate this goal. Musk envisions producing 100 Starships per year, accumulating 1,000 over a decade. Musk has proposed reducing the cost of a ticket to Mars to $100,000 or less, making it accessible to many people. He has suggested that people could sell their homes or take loans to fund their journey, and job opportunities on Mars could help pay off the debt. The ultimate goal is not just to send people to Mars, but to create a self-sustaining city with everything needed for survival: food production, housing, and industrial infrastructure. While Musk's goal of putting a million people on Mars by 2050 is ambitious and inspiring, it faces significant challenges. "Starship needs further testing and proven reliability for long-distance human space travel. The sheer scale of this endeavor will require substantial investment. Life support systems, radiation shielding, and infrastructure must be perfected to sustain large populations. Coordinating the transportation and resupply of millions of people is an unprecedented challenge. Critics have raised concerns about the risks to human life and the environmental impact on Mars. Despite these obstacles, Musk’s vision has sparked widespread interest in Mars exploration and may accelerate advancements in space technology, even if the 2050 timeline proves overly optimistic." Elon Musk Says He'll Put A Million People on Mars By 2050

Elon Musk will be happy to be the shadow president. Trump has been aging rapidly recently, due to the immense stresses on him. Trump looks more depressed than ever. I think Trump may have some kind of nervous breakdown before his term ends, but Elon will be pulling his puppet strings. Elon is the false prophet. His T-shirt says "OCCUPY MARS." He wants people to take loans or sell their homes to afford a one-way ticket to Mars, and a SELF-SUSTAINING colony on Mars is so far away, according to all the scientists I've heard from, hundreds of years away, if ever. (Let's spend those billions fixing earth!) So ignorant people will throw their money at Elon for his projects. But that is ok since Trump will cut taxes even more, especially for the wealthy, giving more benefits to the billionaires, and collect TARIFFS instead, a tax on the middle class. Werner Von Braun came to America after WW2 and worked on the US rocket program. He wrote a novel about a colony on Mars with a dictator called "The Elon." The colony is ruled by a technocracy of scientists and engineers. I did a little brainstorming session with ChatGPT and this is what I found. I suspect Elon has much influence on AI these days, and maybe on ChatGPT also, because it sounds like Elon tampered with it. Besides AI, there were a number of Youtubes that had titles sounding critical of Elon, but they were commercials in favor of him. Elon is messing around with AI. Try searching "Elon Musk warp drive" on Youtube. There are a number of Youtubes claiming he is working on warp drive, even testing it in orbit! ALL LIES! That's what you get from the false prophet. Elon's father was a fan of science fiction and read Von Braun's techno-novel, The Mars Project. In the book the dictator of Mars is called "The Elon." Why did he name his son "Elon"? "Wernher von Braun's The Mars Project (translated into English in 1952) is a visionary work that merges science fiction with engineering and scientific principles. It is considered one of the earliest and most detailed technical outlines for human colonization of Mars. The Mars Project is not a conventional narrative-driven science fiction novel but a speculative engineering manifesto. It lays out a plan for a crewed expedition to Mars, detailing the spacecraft, mission logistics, and planetary science based on von Braun’s expertise in rocketry. The text includes both technical analysis and some narrative elements to imagine the societal and organizational structure of a Martian colony. Although the book is primarily focused on the technical aspects of a Mars mission, von Braun does touch upon the governance and societal organization of the Martian settlement. The leader of the Martian government is referred to as “The Elon.” This is not a proper name but a title, suggesting a position of leadership or authority [DICTATOR], much like a governor or president. The society on Mars appears to be governed by a centralized and hierarchical structure, a benevolent autocracy. Von Braun’s description implies that the governance would be efficient and technocratic, led by scientific and engineering elites. The colony would rely heavily on collaboration and communal effort, prioritizing survival and the common good over individualism. Scientific and technological advancement would be central to the colony’s success. The Martian colony would be a "utilitarian pragmatic society" likely have strict resource management, given the challenges of survival in a harsh environment. Economic activities and societal roles would be geared toward supporting life and expanding the settlement. Von Braun envisioned Mars colonization as a unifying project for humanity, with a multinational crew and global cooperation. The book reflects von Braun’s post-World War II optimism about space exploration and its potential to unite nations and inspire progress. His use of “The Elon” as a title for a Martian leader has drawn modern attention due to Elon Musk’s Mars ambitions, though this is purely coincidental. The Mars Project had a profound impact on the development of space exploration. Von Braun's ideas influenced NASA's mission planning during the Apollo era and later inspired modern discussions about Mars colonization. It remains a fascinating blend of technical feasibility and speculative futurism, showcasing von Braun’s [ELON MUSK'S] genius and his dreams for humanity’s future in space.

It's similar to calling a supermassive black hole a star, as in "Sagittarius A Star." Anyone with a brain would say "Sagittarius A ASTERISK" for "Sagittarius A*," so people don't confuse the printed asterisk for a star.

We know that the Earth is protected by a magnetic field that channels dangerous solar wind to the poles, causing the Aurora Borealis. But what about the magnetic poles where this solar wind is impacting the Earth? Is it dangerous for people or animals to spend an extended period of time at the poles, because of the channeled radiation? I asked ChatGPT this question, and here is the answer. Is ChatGPT wrong? "The Earth's magnetic field does channel the solar wind — a stream of charged particles emitted by the Sun — toward the polar regions, leading to phenomena like the auroras (Aurora Borealis and Aurora Australis). However, this does not make life at the poles significantly more dangerous due to the following reasons: Atmospheric Protection: Even at the poles, the Earth's atmosphere provides substantial protection against solar and cosmic radiation. The charged particles lose energy as they interact with the upper atmosphere, causing the stunning light displays of the auroras, but these interactions occur high above the surface. Magnetic Field Deflection: While the magnetic field funnels charged particles toward the poles, it still deflects much of the solar wind away from Earth entirely. Only a small fraction of particles penetrate far enough to interact with the upper atmosphere. Limited Surface Penetration: The solar wind particles interacting with the atmosphere rarely reach the surface of the Earth. Life at the poles is not directly exposed to harmful levels of solar radiation due to these interactions. Natural Shielding: The magnetic field's ability to channel and diffuse the solar wind minimizes its concentration at ground level, even at the poles. Most harmful effects of the solar wind, like high radiation levels, are mitigated well before reaching the Earth's surface. Comparison to Space: The dangers posed by the solar wind are far greater in space or on celestial bodies without a significant atmosphere or magnetic field, such as the Moon or Mars. The poles are challenging environments for life primarily due to extreme cold, high winds, and seasonal darkness, not because of increased solar wind danger. However, astronauts and high-altitude pilots in polar regions might experience slightly increased radiation exposure during solar storms, but this is a rare and temporary risk."

When you examine Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys, the keys were correct, and Allan simply interpreted them slightly off. I agree with Allan’s analysis of the first 4 keys, but for short-term and long-term economy, those were perceived as FALSE by the public because of massive disinformation. I agree with Allan on keys 7, 8, and 9, but I disagree on 10 and 11. Allan believed that Biden got the benefit of uniting countries against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the public did not perceive that. I agree with Allan on key 12, but I differ on key 13, because although you cannot call Trump “charismatic” he gets partial credit for having cult leader popularity, like rarely seen, except for truly charismatic candidates. So, when I count the keys that fall against the Whitehouse party, I get 6 and a half strikes against the Whitehouse party. Which indicates a Trump victory. Here is how I analyze the 13 keys. (1) Biden loses the 2 economy keys, (2) loses another Foreign/Military success key, and (3) gets half credit for challenger being “semi-charismatic.” Here is my analysis: 1 Party Mandate – FALSE 2 No Primary Contest – TRUE 3 Incumbent seeking re-election – FALSE 4 No Third Party – TRUE 5 Strong Short-Term Economy – FALSE (PERCEIVED AS FALSE BECAUSE OF MASSIVE DISINFORMATION 6 Strong Long-Term Economy – FALSE (PERCEIVED AS FALSE BECAUSE OF MASSIVE DISINFORMATION 7 Major Policy Changes – TRUE 8 No Social Unrest – TRUE 9 No Scandal – TRUE 10 No Foreign or Military Failure – FALSE (PERCEIVED AS FALSE) 11 Major Foreign or Military Success – FALSE (PERCEIVED AS FALSE) 12 Charismatic Incumbent – FALSE 13 Uncharismatic Challenger – PARTIALLY FALSE BECAUSE TRUMP WITH HIS CULT FOLLOWING GETS PARTIAL CREDIT FOR CHARISMA

Higher prices because of new trade wars and tariffs. Higher prices due to deportations of working illegals from agriculture, construction, domestic, services, etc. Trump would not deport very many, undocumented, but he would make a big show of it. Magnifying and exaggerating it. More borrowing (than the $7.8trillion he borrowed in 4 years) because of a wealth-weighted tax cut, so wealthy people at the top save even more.

Trump seems to be descending rapidly into dementia and madness. Most likely he gets removed within a year or two and JD Vance becomes president, who pardons Trump of all crimes. Hopefully Europe will get together and support Ukraine when Trump cuts off aid to Ukraine.

"In a cutting-edge development, that has sent shockwaves through the scientific community, researchers at University College London (UCL) have unveiled a radical theory that seeks to reconcile two pillars of modern physics – quantum mechanics and Einstein's general theory of relativity." Most of this is beyond me, but does anyone think this is a "cutting-edge development"? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/revolutionary-new-theory-finally-unites-quantum-mechanics-and-einstein-s-theory-of-general-relativity/ar-AA1sKLme?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8f705b996d7b40b5b2e77ece1cfecc61&ei=35#

Thanks for the advice. After a few days, ChatGPT is now allowing me to ask questions again. It is FREE, and I can ask it any question that has a generally accepted answer. Which version of AI do you consult with? How much does it charge you? How much does it charge?

Here is my question about polling. When pollsters call a phone number in households that are dominated by a male, does the subservient woman, who can also vote, in the house hand the phone to the man, because the man is in charge, so HE can answer the poll? The woman may be for Harris, but would not tell her husband that, out of fear, and plans to vote secretly for Harris, but she promises her domineering husband that she voted for Trump? Many of us thought Hillary Clinton was going to win, based on the polls, and were shocked that she didn't win.

I love Neil and have seen many episodes of "Startalk." Have you seen any of those? I also thought his Cosmos series was FANTASTIC and I was also a big fan of Carl Sagan's series.

After I discovered ChatGPT, I asked it a lot of questions, maybe 100, and it was interesting to see the answers, often in great detail, and most of it seems true. It's not perfect but can answer any simple question that has a generally accepted answer. Recently, ChatGPT stopped answering my questions. I know it cost to have unlimited access. I had a limit to how many questions I could ask in one day. But now days have gone by and ChatGPT continues to ignore me. Anyone know about ChatGPT?

Allan Lichtman still predicts a Harris victory. He is the only one who can describe a rational, fact-based, scientific method of predicting the US presidential election. He was correct in 9 of the last 10 elections.

I know you don't generally accept answers from ChatGPT, but how about this? I also asked ChatGPT what was the source of this information? "The estimated mass of the Milky Way’s CGM is roughly 10 billion to 100 billion solar masses (M☉). This estimate includes both ionized and neutral gas, as well as metals, which are heavier elements expelled from stars. A significant portion of the mass is in the form of hot, ionized gas that extends several hundred thousand light-years from the galaxy's center. The source of this information comes primarily from observations using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), specifically from the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS), and X-ray telescopes like Chandra and XMM-Newton. These instruments allow astronomers to detect the presence of highly ionized gas in the CGM, by observing the absorption lines of elements like oxygen (O VI) in the spectra of background quasars and other bright objects. The mass estimates can vary due to uncertainties in modeling the distribution, temperature, and density of the gas, but the consensus places the CGM’s mass in this broad range. A 2020 study by the Hubble COS Halos program refined these estimates, indicating that the CGM could account for a significant fraction of the baryonic matter "missing" from earlier galaxy models." Does this help? Do you ever consult with AI?

Yes, that's the one! CGM "The Milky Way's CGM is a massive, extended halo of gas with a total mass of about 10 to 60 billion solar masses and extends up to 200,000 to 300,000 light-years from the galactic center." "The mass of stars in the Milky Way is roughly 60 billion to 100 billion solar masses. This includes all the stars in the Milky Way's disk, bulge, and stellar halo." "The Milky Way contains a significant amount of gas (both in the disk and in the circumgalactic medium), but this only contributes around 10 billion solar masses." These quotes I found are not consistent with "70% of the mass of a galaxy" is CGM. The Milky Way has far less mass in its' CGM, even less than the mass of the stars in our galaxy.

It's amazing and that is interesting because I never heard that 70% of matter that is not dark matter, is the CMG. That is all new to me. Why is the CMG never mentioned in discussions about dark matter? Neil de Grasse Tyson never mentioned it? It says that the CMG extends out 300,000 LY for a galaxy the size of the Milky Way. I guess 300,000 is a radial distance, compared to the edge of the Milky Way out to a radius of only about 50,000 LY? The CMG extends out 6 times as far and is 70% of the mass of the galaxy!

Suppose he had a 50% probability in one year. For 9 years: 50% to the power of 9 = A very tiny probability his model is random.