Airbrush

Suppose he had a 50% probability in one year. For 9 years: 50% to the power of 9 = A very tiny probability his model is random.

Could you quote that from his published paper of Oct 2016? I can't find it. What octopus did you mention? I searched above and could not find it. Is there an octopus that correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections? No octopus lives 40 years. They live between 1 year and up to 5 years in captivity. You have not studied the model enough to know registrations do not matter. Lichtman never mentions that. I can tell you have not studied it. Anyhow, last night Lichtman pulled the trigger, before the debate, and said Harris would win. Let's see if he was wrong. He reminds me of the character Hari Seldon in the Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" series of scifi stories "The premise of the stories is that in the waning days of a future Galactic Empire, the mathematician Hari Seldon devises the theory of psychohistory, a new and effective mathematics of sociology. Using statistical laws of mass action, it can predict the future of large populations." Foundation (book series) - Wikipedia Now it looks like the Dems may lose the Senate because John Tester's polls don't look good. Allen Lichtman has addressed your concerns and believes his model is not yet outdated.

Lichtman is firm that he did NOT predict the 2016 election on popular vote. He predicted it by his 13 Keys. His only mistake in predicting elections was 2000, when he predicted Gore would win. So, he correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections. 90% seems like a robust model. Voting registration is not a Key. That is why I lumped it under "Major Policy Changes" because it seems to me that young people registering in great numbers would do so based on their perception of Trump policies VS Biden policies, and they fear what may happen under Trump. His final prediction comes this week, earliest by today, and by Sunday at the latest. We will revisit this after the election!

You are correct, but that is not the point. In 2000, the electoral college diverged from the popular vote for the first time. "As a national system, the 13 Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes. However, only once in the last 125 years has the Electoral College vote diverged from the popular vote. That was in the disputed election of 2000, when Bush defeated Al Gore. Despite narrowly losing the popular vote, Bush won in the Electoral College by holding a 537-vote margin over Gore in Florida when the Supreme Court halted the recounting of ballots." Biden won the key "Major Policy Changes" as did Harris. You know that policies differ between Dems and GOP....MAJORLY. That is an easy Key for the Dems to win. So I don't understand your point.

I think the surge in voter registration would fall under Key #7 - Major Policy Changes. You see YOUTHS registering to vote because of their concern about "Major policy changes" (ban abortion, defund Ukraine, corp tax cuts, daily clown shows, etc, under TFG) which is a key in FAVOR of Harris winning the election. Lichtman has complained about a false entry in Wikipedia that he hasn't been able to remove, that makes it look like he did not predict the 2016 election, but he did predict a Trump victory. In the interview he said NOTHING about the popular vote. He also predicted that Trump would be impeached. Trump sent Lichtman a thank you note for predicting his win in 2016. He also predicted Gore won 2000, and Gore did win the popular vote by 540,000 votes, but the demographic changed at that time, so popular vote differed from the electoral college. At this moment Lichtman believes a lot would have to go wrong for Harris, for Harris to lose. Another key fell when Harris replaced Biden, and they lost the Incumbency Key. One more key would need to fall for Harris to lose. His final prediction will be next week! Here is his most recent post:

Lichtman has correctly predicted the results of ten consecutive elections, from 1984 to 2020. The 2020 election was special because Gore won the popular vote, but the election was decided by SCOTUS, electing Bush. In 2016 Lichtman switched from predicting popular vote to the electoral college vote. "Using the system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the popular vote outcomes of each presidential election from 1984 to 2012. Though Lichtman claims he called the 2016 election correctly based on the 13 keys, his 2016 book and paper stated that the keys only referred to the popular vote, which Donald Trump lost.[4][5][6][7] He switched to just predicting the winner across all publications after the 2016 election, stating recent demographics changes give Democrats an advantage in the popular vote in close elections, and correctly called the outcome of the 2020 election.[8][9] "Lichtman argues that the checklist's content and its track record of reliability prove that American voters select the next president according to how well the country was governed in the preceding four years and that election campaigns have little, if any, meaningful effect on American voters. If American voters are satisfied with the governance of the country, they will re-elect the president or elect their party's nominee, but if they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party." The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia

"Eternal inflation" suggests that our universe is just one of many "bubble universes" that form in an ever-expanding multiverse. These bubbles can be thought of as branching off from the inflating space-time of a previous universe, leading to a potentially infinite number of universes within the multiverse. The multiverse is the entire collection of these bubble universes. The multiverse could contain universes with different physical laws, different dimensions, and varying properties." Have you seen those Youtube animations showing bubble universes branching off from a previous universe? It seems like bubbles have centers and edges. When you get to the edge of one of these bubbles, your most powerful telescopes won't see any galaxies beyond the edge, because that region is still inflating out of range and is well beyond your visual horizon.

Here is the last update of the 13 Keys. It is borderline now, Dems are down by 5. IF Dems lose one more key, they lose. Final prediction by Lichtman is a week away! What key could fall?

Good question. Anyone know this? My guess is: what you would see depends on what is further from you, the observable edge of the bubble OR the actual edge of the bubble.

With eternal inflation, cosmic inflation continues indefinitely in some regions, creating a "multiverse" of bubble universes. In this framework, each "bubble" universe could have its own center and edges, but the entire multiverse doesn’t have a center or edges.

Trump is a Bible salesman and should try reading his favorite book. Seven deadly sins - Wikipedia "The seven deadly sins are: pride, greed, wrath, envy, lust, gluttony, and sloth. These sins are considered deadly because they are believed to lead to other sins and immoral behavior." PRIDE: Pride is considered the original and most serious of the seven deadly sins. It represents an excessive belief in one's own abilities, superiority, and worth, often leading to contempt and disrespect for others. Pride is viewed as the sin from which all others arise. [does this sound like Biden, Harris, Obama, Clinton, Putin, Kim Jong Un, or somebody else?] "In today's context, pride can manifest as arrogance, vanity, and an inflated sense of self-importance. It may lead individuals to overlook their faults, refuse constructive criticism, and prioritize their desires over the well-being of others. However, it's important to distinguish unhealthy pride from self-respect and confidence, which are considered positive traits." [WHO does this sound like? Biden?] GREED: Greed involves an excessive and selfish desire for wealth, power, or material possessions beyond what is needed. It is marked by a pursuit of gain at the expense of others. In the modern world, greed is evident in consumerism, corporate exploitation, and unethical practices aimed at accumulating wealth and resources. It can lead to economic disparities and social injustices. Engaging in corrupt business practices for personal gain. Hoarding resources without regard for others' needs. Pursuing wealth relentlessly while neglecting other aspects of life. WRATH: Wrath refers to uncontrolled feelings of anger, rage, and hatred. It can manifest as a desire for vengeance and can lead to violence, aggression, and self-destructive behavior. [The way he went after Rosie O'Donnell in 2006 showed this. Trump said "I am your retribution!" Trump is a man of hatred, often assuming other people hate as easily as he does, for petty reasons.] ENVY: Envy involves desiring what others have, whether it be possessions, status, abilities, or relationships. It is characterized by feelings of resentment and dissatisfaction caused by another's success or advantages [Obama, Biden, Harris]. LUST: Lust is an intense and uncontrolled desire, usually of a sexual nature. It focuses on self-gratification and often disregards the well-being and consent of others. GLUTTONY: Gluttony is the overindulgence and overconsumption of food, drink, or wealth items to the point of waste. It represents a lack of self-control and moderation. SLOTH: Sloth is characterized by laziness, idleness, and a reluctance to act or make decisions. It represents a failure to utilize one's talents and fulfill duties and responsibilities [as Trump did during the Covid pandemic making it worse than it had to be. Also, Trump famously complained after entering office that he had thought being president would be EASIER than being CEO of a private company! Trump complained that Obama played so much golf (306 times in 8 years), when Trump played golf 298 times in FOUR years, twice as often as Obama did.] Seven deadly sins - Wikipedia I think I have made a case for Trump being the "man of sin" as described in 2 Thessalonians 2 KJV. In other versions it is called the "man of lawlessness" which can be validated by the many legal cases Trump has acquired in his lifetime.

That is interesting, especially the suggestion of restarting the Mars dynamo and generate a magnetic field. That sounds very difficult. How does anyone restart the Mars dynamo? That sounds as difficult as terraforming Mars. In the Scifi movie "The Core" they restart Earth's dynamo using a series of nuclear explosions.

Lichtman has addressed the perception of the economy vs economy as measured by traditional economic means. Perception does not count with the 2 economic keys. Only objective measures determine this, economic growth, inflation, unemployment, stock market, etc.

Since Trump sells Bibles, and he calls it his favorite book, why don't his Christian followers face these verses? He has overwhelming support from the Evangelicals and other Christian groups, so why don't they ever face the Antichrist verses from their favorite book? Trump said his favorite Bible verse was "Where the Spirit of the Lord is, there is liberty." Of course, liberty for him to escape justice and be the dictator he has fantasized about for so long. THE ANTICHRIST The word "trump" is an abbreviation of "trumpet" associated with the last days, "God's Trumpet" appears in two verses in the King James Version (KJV) of the Bible, published in 1611, long before the name Trump became known: 1 Corinthians 15:52 - "In a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trump: for the trumpet shall sound, and the dead shall be raised incorruptible, and we shall be changed." 1 Thessalonians 4:16 - "For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first:" 1 The Antichrist is called “the little horn.” – Daniel 7:8 The word “trump” (abbreviation of “trumpet”) appears twice in the KJV bible, trumpet is the “little horn.” The little horn has “the eyes of a man and boasts great things.” 2 The Antichrist has the mouth of a lion – Rev. 13:2 – Trump contorts his mouth as he speaks, so you can read his lips from 100 yards, and a voice that roars like a lion, "the voice of a dragon", and the "feet of a bear" 3 The Antichrist is arrogant, shall exalt himself above others – Daniel 8:25 - Check 4 The Antichrist will “throw truth to the ground.” – Daniel 8:12 - Trump’s 30,000 false or misleading statements while in office. 5 The Antichrist will be a vile person – Daniel 11:21 – Check! 6 The Antichrist does as he pleases – Daniel 11:36 “Then the king will do as he pleases, and he will exalt himself and boast against every god, and will speak dreadful things… and he will be successful until the indignation is finished” – Daniel 11:36 NASB - Trump: “I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss, I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the pxxxx. You can do anything.” 7 The Antichrist will love money as it is the love of money, not money itself, that is the “root of all kinds of evil.” – 1 Timothy 6:10 Trump said “My whole life I’ve been greedy, greedy, greedy for money. I grabbed all the money I can get. I’m so greedy.” 8 The Antichrist will honor the “god of forces” Apollo (Apollyon), the sun god. “In his estate he shall honor the God of Forces, a god his father knew not, he shall honor with gold, silver, precious stones, and other pleasant things.” – Daniel 11:38 – In 1985 Trump had a reproduction of Guido Reni’s “Aurora Fresco” (aka “The Triumph of Apollo Led by the Aurora”) painted on the ceiling of his penthouse in Trump Tower. This decorative choice is part of the luxurious and opulent design that characterizes his residence. The fresco, originally painted in the early 17th century in the Palazzo Pallavicini-Rospigliosi in Rome, depicts the goddess Aurora leading Apollo’s chariot across the sky. 9 The Antichrist will disguise himself as an “angel of light” – 2 Corinthians 11:15 - He will masquerade as a force for good, and defender of Christian values, but really defending HIMSELF 10 The Antichrist is revealed as “man of lawlessness” and by the “falling away” or “rebellion” (insurrection) from Christ to the Antichrist (Jan 6 Capitol Riot) - 2 Thessalonians 2: 3 11 The Antichrist sows discord - Proverbs 6:14 - “Perversity is in his heart, He devises evil continually. He sows discord.” He intentionally divides groups of people AGAINST each other for his own benefit. He uses a divide and conquer strategy to weed out those who would oppose him. Anyone who criticizes him is evil 12 The Antichrist works deceitfully – Daniel 11:23 - “He shall work deceitfully: for he shall come up and shall become strong with a small people” [MAGA and the electoral college]. “Through his cunning He shall cause deceit to prosper under his rule.” Trump’s deceptiveness was so pervasive that his own attorneys would only meet with him in pairs to prevent 2 different versions of the same story. 13 The Antichrist understands dark sentences or sinister schemes – Daniel 8:23 - “A king of fierce countenance, and understanding dark sentences, shall standup” - He is a master of intrigue and machination, which is scheming or crafty action, to accomplish an evil end. 14 The Antichrist attains the kingdom by flattery – Daniel 11:21 - “And in His estate shall stand up a vile person, to whom they shall not give the honor of the kingdom: but He shall come in peaceably, and obtain the kingdom by flatteries or smoothness, slipperiness, or fine promises (e.g. Mexico will pay for the wall) scheming with a small group of people. American Christian Nationalism serves Trump in his quest to regain power to use as retribution upon his enemies. 15 The Antichrist will amaze the world – Rev. 13:3 - He steals headlines daily, by one outrageous comment after another 16 The Antichrist will come in his own name and be accepted - John 5:43 - "I came in my Father's name, and you received me not: if another shall come [Trump] in his own name, you will receive." 17 The Antichrist will deny the Father and the Son. He said he does not seek God’s forgiveness, thus denying the need for a savior – 1 John 2:22 18 The Antichrist is connected to gold – Rev. 13:18 King Solomon became obsessed with gold and pagan gods during his later years. Trump’s obsession with gold and “pleasant things” is like King Solomon. "666" refers to the weight in gold given to Solomon. 18 The Antichrist will have a “covenant with many for one week” – Daniel 9:27 19 The Antichrist has the ultimate ego to call himself God [president] 2 Thessalonians 2:4 Trump called himself the “Chosen One” as he looked up into the sky. He is not battling evil, as QAnon and MAGA would have you believe, he is battle those who oppose HIM. He is not about doing anything for anyone, but about elevating himself and destroying his enemies, like a WWE pro wrestler. He perfectly aligns with the biblical descriptions of an antichrist. Nobody else on the world stage even comes close. Bible Verses Identifying Donald Trump as the Antichrist (youtube.com) 12 More Bible Verses Identifying Trump as the Antichrist (youtube.com) 20 The Antichrist is named “the Man of Sin” – 2 Thessalonians 2:3 KJV “Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come, except there comes a falling away first, and that Man of Sin be revealed, the Son of Perdition” Vanity, pride, boasting, dishonesty, lust, adultery, fornication, gluttony, sloth, greed, envy, wrath, desire for vengeance and retribution, and inability to forgive. He views his character flaws as badges of honor, as if each sin of the bible was on his bucket list. Trump, in his personal and business life, has lived a VERY sinful life by biblical standards, but has even bragged about his lust, even advocated sexual assault “When you’re a star they let you do it. You can do ANYTHING!” Stars are entitled to sexual assault, either “unfortunately or fortunately.” He even boasted on Wendy Williams show that his favorite thing was having sex with his daughter! Then Ivanka could only laugh. Wendy: “Donald, what are the favorite things you have in common with your daughter?” Trump: “Well…I was going to say SEX, but I can’t….” Donald Trump Tell Wendy Williams That He Has S.e.x In Common With Ivanka (youtube.com) 21 The Antichrist is named “the Lawless One” – 2 Thessalonians 2:8 Trump considers himself to be above the law or a law unto himself. There are many examples of him skirting the law and able to avoid repercussions. “Article 2 I have the right to do anything I want as president, but I don’t even talk about that.’ HE JUST DID TALK ABOUT THAT! 22 The Antichrist will succeed in all that he does – Daniel 8:24 “His power will be great, but it will not be His own. He will cause terrible destruction (Covid mismanagement] and succeed in whatever He does [The Apprentice]. He will destroy the mighty men along with the holy people.” Trump has attained everything he wanted through devious means. The world considers him a great success. He will never stop until he attains power and takes revenge on his enemies. 23 The Antichrist will look more stout than his fellows – Daniel 7:20 He will look heavyset. Stout defined as haughty, full of oneself, and heavyset. He is scornfully and condescendingly proud, arrogant, and overbearing. 24 The Antichrist is a unique, unstoppable force that can’t be fought against – Rev. 13:4 “And they worshipped the dragon which gave power to the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying “Who is like unto the beast? Whom can make war with Him?” Trump values loyalty above all else, being disloyal to him is treason. He has perfected the art of flattery to get what he wants, and has succeeded at all he does. He has a stout look, he sows discord purposely to divide and conquer, to elevate himself while destroying his enemies. He is that unstoppable force that no one can fight against. Nobody else on the world stage comes even close to matching ALL the biblical descriptions of the Antichrist. That “Man of Lawlessness” is Donald Trump. 12 More Bible Verses Identifying Trump as the Antichrist (youtube.com)

Ok there. You got me with a concept new to me "unitarity" which sounds very cool! So, I asked ChatGPT what it was and here is what I got: "Unitarity is a fundamental concept in quantum mechanics that ensures the conservation of probability. It is related to the time evolution of quantum states, Conservation of Probability: In quantum mechanics, the total probability of all possible outcomes of a measurement must always sum to one. Unitarity guarantees this by ensuring that the quantum state's evolution preserves the norm (or length) of the state vector. Unitary Operators: The time evolution of a quantum system is described by a unitary operator U(t)U(t) Unitarity ensures that quantum mechanics is a consistent and physically meaningful theory. It prevents probabilities from becoming negative or exceeding one, and it ensures that the evolution of quantum states is reversible." I don't understand any of that. Can you translate that into English? Why would anything remain after a black hole explodes near the end of its' evaporation? All that remains is photons, right?

Another point for life on Mars: Signs of liquid water discovered under the planet's surface (msn.com) "Scientists discovered evidence of a reservoir of liquid water seven to 13 miles below the Martian surface, lingering in the pores of the planet's crust. They believe there's enough to cover the entire planet with an ocean about one mile deep. The water, if it exists, is too deep to access in the foreseeable future. Still, it's another promising sign that Mars could one day yield the most disruptive discovery in human history — that of life beyond Earth." How difficult would it be to drill for that water "7 to 13 miles" below the Martian surface? How long will it be before we have the technology to drill that deep for water? Russia drilled the Kola Superdeep Borehole which is over 7 miles deep. Or will the water ice found at the poles be the main source of water for people on Mars for a very long time?

"As a black hole evaporates, it loses mass and eventually disappears in a final burst of energy, leaving behind no singularity, just dispersed radiation and particles." "Theoretical models suggest that when the black hole reaches a critical size, it might release a final, intense burst of radiation, possibly equivalent to the energy of several megatons of TNT. This burst would signify the complete evaporation of the black hole. After this burst, the black hole would effectively disappear, leaving behind only the radiation and particles it emitted during its evaporation. There would be no remaining singularity or event horizon—just the energy and particles dispersed into space."

For Biden to commit such a crime is totally out of character. For Trump, not so. The SCOTUS majority are counting on Biden's decency and hoping Trump will win and take full advantage of extreme immunity. If the shooter was successful there would likely have been social unrest or even a minor civil war.

Excellent reply, thanks for the info! Another thing the climate skeptics were arguing was that hotter climate is better, as the temperature peaks were literally "optimums" meaning it was great for plants to have hotter climate and more co2. I figure climate change alters normal weather patterns, so the "bread baskets" become dried deserts, and the deserts get flooded and become lush tropical forests. People are all mixed up because it will require all new infrastructure to move agriculture to new areas, as coastal areas flood more with rising sea level. So coastal people are forced to move inland, causing wars, etc.

Remember this "Ton 618" at 40 BILLION solar masses. I just learned that the theoretical upper limit for SBH mass is about 270 BILLION solar masses! But probably not much bigger than 50 BILLION solar masses. "The limit is only 5×1010 M☉ for black holes with typical properties, but can reach 2.7×1011 M☉ at maximal prograde spin (a = 1).[7][8][9][10] List of most massive black holes - Wikipedia

I saw a debate where the climate skeptic showed a graph of world co2 compared to temperatures and it looks like first temperature rises, then co2 rises later, so it doesn't look like rising co2 CAUSES warming of the GLOBAL AVERAGE. The "climate alarmist" in the debate had no response to that. I searched for another graph of co2 with temperature and I found this which shows co2 going up and down over 800,000 years, and temperature peaks seem to COINCIDE with high co2. One does not seem to lead the other. Was someone fooling around with these graphs?

I need a good short debate that is very convincing to climate skeptics. I have come to believe that humans are making the Earth worst, by making it hotter. There are some who argue that warmer is better. The high CO2 is good for plants. How do you counter that argument? There are studies that show sea levels are not rising among Pacific Islanders. The islands seem to float above the sea level rise by accretion. Coral reef islands can accrete vertically in response to sea level rise | Science Advances Another climate skeptic claim is that when you compare the graphs of historic, and prehistoric, CO2 levels in the atmosphere, to the graph of average temperature, it seems that the spikes in temperature come BEFORE the spikes in CO2. They claim that means high CO2 does not CAUSE high temperatures. Anyone agree? "In a vote of 7-0, The most prolific climate revisionist editor ever at Wikipedia, with over 5400 article revisions has been banned from making any edits about climate related articles for six months." Any opinions about this? Thanks for any ideas, but I've seen a lot of climate skepticism lately.

You can't "run down" thousands of people fighting for their country, IF they are armed. If they are not armed, maybe you can do anything you want with them. Russian tanks are getting worse and worse. Putin is now sending in his oldest, least capable, tanks. 😉