Johnny Electriglide

I see "Tim the Troll" is here. It has been backed at skeptical science.com that the trajectory humanity and the biosphere is on will result in a worse than Permian extinction and worse than the 30 million year recovery and after effects of PETM. The temperature and CO2 rise is 10 to 40 times that of PETM 55 mya. There is also a substantial amount more sequestered CH4. The main problem is human inertia and ignorance to what is happening and the needed 90+% emissions reduction by 2024. There is the possibility of an early population crash fostered by economic meltdown, if not brought on by stupid financial practices, one of the three due geologic disasters could hit (Cascadia, La Palma, or Katla). The only solution to save the biosphere from possible Venus Effect is by forcing a super volcanic eruption, after the tipping point of Arctic Tundra methane self release is totally passed in the late 2020s. When the point of hitting the beginning of the tipping point was reached in 2009, the Arctic Methane Emergency Group was formed. It is on facebook and youtube. What triggered this methane turnover effect in the past was Arctic warming of 5*C, and last April in Siberia we had 2 to 9*C higher than the 1989 record temperatures. 16 methane blowholes formed and spiked the CH4 measurements briefly. Most only know of 3. The rate of change and the added ocean acidification are beyond anything seen on Earth in geologic time after the cyanobacteria explosion with oxygen atmosphere formed and stabilized. That was the last time a single species changed the biosphere. Now, it is the human species, far into overshoot and pollution at thousands of times the absorption rate. Nothing is changing for the better, unfortunately. The denialists have effectively used human selfishness and ignorance to thwart efforts to go green on a planetary scale in time to stop the worst (unless you think this 90+% reduction will really come by Jan2024). Extinction of us, and millions of other species, our friends. If for some reason, CAGW does not proceed to 80%+ CH4 release, perhaps the extremophobes at oceanic thermal vents could seed new life, so that in around 50 million years it could be similar to what it was like at the beginning of this interglacial epoch, but no 'intelligent' life.

Scroll through the many links, graphs, diagrams, pictures, and cartoons!!! Good luck! https://www.skepticalscience.com/

This place has many answers if you scroll around https://www.skepticalscience.com/ It does not have everything, like the Arctic Methane Emergency. The IPCC is politically motivated to be overly conservative with their projections, and they do not figure in geometric methane release, or over-population's realities.

The last video blames HAARP for some of the effects, but it is all HGHGs from overpopulation over time. Geometric temperature gain in most of our lives, along with the effects of the only cure---blowing a super volcano by a nuclear pattern blast at the perimeter and bottom edge of magma chambers. I am really glad that old denialist Tim is gone. Most people have no clue that we only have 8 years to lower emissions 90% or the tipping point of the Arctic tundra methane self release will be passed, and the only solution to save ourselves and the biosphere is to use technology to force a long volcanic winter with the inevitable human die off. Overpopulation was driven by fossil fuels and has led to this methane emergency. http://www.ameg.me/index.php/2-ameg/53-urgent-message-to-governments-from-the-arctic-methane-emergency-group-ameg

There are many who are looking after the biosphere's future well being. The sad fact of the matter is that it is too few. Most likely, the needed emissions reductions will not happen in time. Then there are only two choices; let the biosphere go to like Venus, or blow Yellowstone, and possibly Toba, too. Population bottleneck with less than a total of 50% extinction, or extinction of all life on Earth forever. Those that have a couple decades or more of supplies can make it until the effects of the long volcanic winter are over, in underground fortresses. The escape to a new planet in a multi-generational spaceship has less of a chance of success. http://www.ameg.me/index.php/2-ameg/53-urgent-message-to-governments-from-the-arctic-methane-emergency-group-ameg Urgent Message to Governments from the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, AMEG AMEG’s Declaration "Governments must get a grip on a situation which IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has ignored. A strategy of mitigation and adaptation is doomed to fail. It will be impossible to adapt to the worst consequences of global warming, as IPCC suggests. The Arctic must be cooled, ASAP, to prevent the sea ice disappearing with disastrous global consequences. Rapid warming in the Arctic, as sea ice retreats, has already disrupted the jet stream. The resulting escalation in weather extremes is causing a food crisis which must be addressed before the existing conflicts in Asia and Africa spread more widely. Dangerous global warming and ocean acidification must be prevented by reducing the level of CO2 in the atmosphere, especially by improved agricultural practice, thereby addressing the food crisis at the same time. This is an unprecedented opportunity for international collaboration for common purpose." http://www.ameg.me/index.php/2-ameg/53-urgent-message-to-governments-from-the-arctic-methane-emergency-group-ameg

Methane Apocalypse, Everything Else Is A Distraction. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FnfygE5Lhw Here is the latest June, 2014 interview with Dr.Natalia Shakhova, on the current state of the methane from the Arctic, with links to the other two parts and other related video presentations. The temperature graph does not show the even higher near vertical line on the right. No matter what other mechanisms are in play, human greenhouse gas emissions are the by far largest forcing to climate and heat to CH4 Turnover and an ELE worse than the Permian. Unless at least Yellowstone is forced to erupt. Then we will really see geologic climate forcing. A "Toba type" bottleneck, and return to the ice age cycle. Some survivors is better than none.

Here is the latest June, 2014 interview with Dr.Natalia Shakhova, on the current state of the methane from the Arctic, with links to the other two parts and other related video presentations.

It is amazing denialists are here. The Arctic Atmospheric 'Methane Global Warming Veil'. Its Origin in the Arctic Subsea and Mantle and the Timing of the Global Terminal Extinction Events by 2040 to 2050 Arctic News By Malcolm P.R. Light, Harold Hensel and Sam Carana June 8th, 2014 (Excerpts) "If only a few percent of the subsea methane hydrate reserves in the Arctic Ocean (some 1000 billion tons of Carbon) is dissociated and the methane is released into the atmosphere, it will cause total deglaciation and a major extinction event (Light and Solana 2002). The energy necessary to produce these Arctic methane release rates is relatively small; it requires only about one thousandth of the heat energy input from the Gulf Stream to dissociate the methane hydrates (Figure 30). Furthermore, the energy necessary to produce these Arctic methane release rates represents less than one millionth of the global warming heat energy being added to the oceans, ice, land and atmosphere by human fossil fuel burning (Figure 30). Unfortunately for us, global warming has heated up the oceanic currents fed by the Gulf Stream flowing into the Arctic, causing massive destabilization of the subsea methane hydrates and fault seals and releasing increasing volumes of methane directly into the atmosphere. The total human induced global warming is equivalent to 4 Hiroshima atomic bombs detonating every second (Nuccitelli et al. 2012). Humanity has signed its death warrant and our final extinction will be carried out by Mother Earth within the next 30 to 40 years unless we immediately take extremely drastic action to entirely curb our carbon dioxide pollution, eliminate large quantities of methane from the subsea Arctic Ocean, seawater and atmosphere (down to ca 673 - 700 ppm) and revert completely to renewable energy..... The volume transport of the Gulf Stream has increased by three times since the 1940s due to the rising atmospheric pressure difference set up between the polluted, greenhouse gas rich air above North America and the marine Atlantic air. The increasingly heated Gulf Stream, with its associated high winds and energy-rich weather systems, flows NE to Europe where it recently pummelled Great Britain and Europe with catastrophic storms. Other branches of the Gulf Stream then enter the Arctic and heat up the Arctic methane hydrate seals on subsea and deep high-pressure mantle methane reservoirs below the Eurasian Basin-Laptev Sea transition. This is releasing increasing amounts of methane into the atmosphere producing anomalous temperatures, greater than 20°C above average. Over very short time periods of a few days to a few months the atmospheric methane has a global warming potential from 1000 to 100 times that of carbon dioxide (Light 2012 - 2014; Carana 2012 - 2014). The whole northern hemisphere is now covered by a thickening atmospheric methane veil that is spreading southwards at about 1 km a day and it already totally envelopes the United States. A giant hole in the equatorial ozone layer has also been discovered in the west Pacific, which acts like an elevator transferring methane from lower altitudes to the stratosphere, where it already forms a dense equatorial global warming stratospheric band that is spreading into the Polar regions. The spreading atmospheric methane global warming veil is raising the temperature of the lower atmosphere many times faster than carbon dioxide does, causing the extreme summer temperatures in Australia and the United States. The front of the expanding 1850 ppb Arctic Atmospheric Mantle Methane Global Warming Veil has passed the northern border of the Gulf Coast and is moving south at about 1 km a day and it should totally envelope the Earth by 2048 (Light 2014). Much of this methane is coming from the subsea extreme methane emission zone (Enrico Anomaly) at the transition from the Eurasian Basin to the Laptev Sea which is sourced at an estimated depth of some 112 km in the upper asthenosphere in the Earths mantle (Light 2014). The United States and Canada must cut their global emissions of carbon dioxide by 80% to 90% in the next 10 to 15 years, otherwise they will be become an instrument of mass destruction of the Earth and its entire human population. Recovery of the United States economy from the financial crisis has been very stupidly based by the present administration on an extremely hazardous "all of the above" energy policy that has allowed continent wide gas fracking, coal and oil sand mining and the return of widespread oil drilling to the Gulf Coast. This large amount of fossil fuel has to be transported and sold which has caused extensive spills, explosions and confrontations with United States citizens over fracking and the Keystone XL pipeline. The United States and Canada must now cease all their fossil fuel extraction and go entirely onto renewable energy in the next 10 to 15 years otherwise they will be guilty of planetary ecocide - genocide by the 2050s" There are numerous charts and graphs as you scroll down, in the link on top. Arctic Methane Emergency Group - AMEG - Urgent Message to Governments from the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, AMEG Arctic Sea Ice - Methane Release - Planetary Emergency Urgent Message to Governments from the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, AMEG AMEG’s Declaration (Excerpt) Governments must get a grip on a situation which IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has ignored. A strategy of mitigation and adaptation is doomed to fail. It will be impossible to adapt to the worst consequences of global warming, as IPCC suggests. The Arctic must be cooled, ASAP, to prevent the sea ice disappearing with disastrous global consequences. Rapid warming in the Arctic, as sea ice retreats, has already disrupted the jet stream. The resulting escalation in weather extremes is causing a food crisis which must be addressed before the existing conflicts in Asia and Africa spread more widely." "Current situation and gross omissions from IPCC The IPCC WG1, WG2 and WG3 assessment reports (AR5) make no mention of the downward trend in sea ice volume, and rely on models which fail to properly capture the processes of warming and melting. Furthermore they fail to mention the strong evidence that Arctic warming is already a driver of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere, compounding the effects of global warming. Arctic warming and sea ice retreat is already having a serious impact on climate change across the Northern Hemisphere, which is affecting food production, food prices and food security. The latest WG2 report claims that the Arctic sea ice will be subject to ‘very high risks with an additional warming of 2 degrees C’. In fact, the September sea ice volume is already down 75% with a trend to zero by September 2016, suggests that the Arctic is heading for complete meltdown, which would be a planetary catastrophe. The loss of Arctic ecosystems and the climate implications of ice disappearance are in fact acute risks NOW as both ice and ice-dependent species are set to disappear within a matter of years. These are catastrophic omissions. AR5 is supposed to provide the best analysis of the state of the planet and its future climate, on which governments can base policy for protection of citizens. These omissions are leading governments into a false sense of security about the future of our planet. The only clear policy deduction from AR5 concerns the reduction of CO2 emissions by keeping within a carbon budget. Reductions alone have no chance of preventing catastrophes arising from Arctic meltdown. Intervention to cool the Arctic is an absolute requirement to prevent such catastrophes. There is no realistic alternative. The concept of a carbon budget, espoused in AR5, hides the short-term consequences of various powerful feedback processes which get zero or scant attention in AR5. In particular, snow and sea ice albedo feedback seems to be totally ignored in the budget. And the mounting concentration of methane in the atmosphere is ignored. The real truth is that the carbon budget has already been spent. WG3’s limit of 450 ppm for CO2 equivalent has already been passed, even without taking into account albedo loss. Governments must also address ocean acidification, whose threat has also been ignored in AR5. There is no alternative but to start a major campaign for CO2 removal (CDR). The latest WG3 assessment report suggests CDR as a possibility for offsetting emissions, but only in so far as for keeping within their carbon budgets of 450ppm CO2e and above, which would have catastrophic consequences for humanity, even without all the other overlooked positive feedbacks described above. CDR must be adopted, being the only possibility in order to stop the existing contribution to global warming of CO2 and ocean acidification. Meanwhile there is the threat of Arctic methane emissions to burst above the gigaton level, totally ignored in AR5. And the AR5 projections of sea level rise are hopelessly optimistic if the sea ice disappears as rapidly as the trend indicates." "This is an unprecedented opportunity for international collaboration for common purpose. 1. The Arctic is rapidly heading for meltdown. As snow and sea ice retreat, exposing land and sea with lower albedo (i.e. less reflectiveness), more solar energy is absorbed, thus leading to further melting and retreat in a vicious cycle. This cycle has been self-sustaining for many years – we are well past the tipping point. There is no sign of any natural process to break the cycle. 2. As the extent of snow and sea ice has been plummeting, even while global warming has stalled, Arctic albedo loss has rapidly overtaken CO2 as the main driver of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere, as witness the escalation of weather extremes. The Arctic has warmed well above global average, resulting in a reduction of the temperature gradient between tropics and pole, this in turn reducing the strength of the polar jet stream, with increased meandering and a tendency to get stuck in blocking patterns. This explains the recent escalation of weather extremes in the form of long periods of weather of one kind such as the months of high rain the UK has experienced this past winter 2013-14, and the protracted extreme cold in the US over the same period, crop failures and an upward trend in the world food price index. 3. While land and subsea permafrost thaws ever faster, methane could become the dominant climate forcing agent. Emissions threaten to break through the gigaton-per-year level within twenty years. AMEG has been continuing its research into the situation. A recent paper, co-authored by Peter Wadhams, a founder member of AMEG, has used the Stern Review economic model to show that the economic cost of a 50 megaton release of methane from the Arctic Ocean seabed will cost $60 trillion. Research in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf has suggested that such a vast release of methane was possible, and continued exponential increase of methane could, within 20 years, reach a level where methane dominated over CO2 in global warming. Some researchers warn of a 50 gigaton burst being possible “at any time”. 4. Therefore, urgent and strenuous efforts are needed ASAP to cool the Arctic, halt snow and sea ice decline, and suppress methane. 5. Techniques exist for cooling on the necessary scale. Both the brightening of low-level clouds and the production of a reflective haze in the stratosphere are techniques based on natural phenomena which have been studied extensively. Various methane suppression techniques have been proposed. However, all these techniques require technology development and testing before deployment. 6. Existing cooling effects must be maintained, especially the cooling effect of SO2. SO2 from burning fossil fuels has negated between 2/3 and 3/4 CO2 global warming over the past 20-30 years; its global cooling effect must be allowed to continue until an alternative means of cooling can be deployed. This should be achieved while improving air quality in centres of population. 7. Ocean acidification threatens to devastate the marine food chain. Atmospheric CO2 must be reduced to a safe level within twenty years or less. 8. Therefore, CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere faster than it is put in. The rate of removal should be increased until it is around double the rate of emissions and the CO2 level has fallen sufficiently to avoid dangerous ocean acidification. Funds could be raised by having a levy on carbon taken out of the ground, specifically to fund the return of carbon to the ground. 9. CO2 can be removed from the atmosphere utilising the photosynthesis of plants and certain algae to produce biomass. The carbon of this biomass must then be kept from returning to the atmosphere, e.g. by pyrolytic conversion to biochar. This process of capture and sequestration has to be massively scaled in order for the CO2 removal rate to exceed CO2 emission rate. 10. The profound economic, social, security and political impacts of the abrupt climate change, being witnessed as an escalation of climate extremes and crop failures, must be addressed. The underlying price of food as indicated by the food price index is already above the crisis level, leading to the food riots we have observed in several countries where income is insufficient to buy daily needs. These are unprecedented opportunities for international collaboration in the interests of every country, every section of the community, rich and poor alike. The necessary actions of cooling the Arctic, suppressing methane and CO2 removal present enormous engineering and logistical challenges. The objectives should be achievable without any revolution or radical change in the way we live. In fact the solutions to the challenges are not only affordable but can be of great economic benefit in the long run. There is no excuse for procrastination. We must see action now" actually, we should have seen action 20 years ago!

NOVA Magnetic Pole Flip 530,000 Years Overdue & Happening Strength is down 15% in the past 10 years. I wonder why in past reversals, that a CME never sterilized the surface, or a cosmic ray burst. From what I read, the reversals usually took 50 to 250 years to complete, with up to a 90% weakening of the magnetosphere. It shows that Earth has been lucky, with that at least, but not with humans destroying the biosphere in a GTEE unless they stop polluting now and fall 50% in numbers, or Katla has a big one, or Yellowstone blows.

I had one child at 39 years old, when there was still hope, in 1988. I went totally solar in 1998. Now we are headed toward a Global Terminal Extinction Event or series of events. Even worse than a population crash. Back in the sixties, that aspect was not really well known yet, that we would kill our biosphere by HGHGs. It never would have happened if population was controlled world wide by the 1970s. Overpopulation to overpollution far beyond absorption rates and depletion of resources at thousands of times replenishment rates, led to buildup of HGHGs to CAGW and methane turnover, which leads to a worse than Permian Extinction and possible runaway to the "Venus Effect". Unless the population crashes from a natural or man-induced "natural" geologic catastrophic event, with enough emissions reductions in time, or volcanic winter to crash and cool, with the biosphere saved and 80% of species left. We really need something like Toba to stop the process.

Dr. Natalia Shakhova will be interviewed again this month on a more recent status report on Siberian Artic Tundra methane releases which have Siberia 2-9*C over the 1989 record in April of this year. Even 2*C is too high(world average temperature)...........while +1.5C was not. Seems like 1.8*C is the magic number of positive feedback loop completion, IMEO. There is a good chance even the 90% HGHG reduction by 2023, may be too late already.(50-50?) Some said the magic number was +5*C for the Arctic to go into the methane turnover mode. So, most of Siberia is above that mark right now. The meaning is clear, and ends in a Permian type extinction, some time within 3-500 years, after the human population crash before mid century. Too bad, SOME of us could have lived here sustainably for eons.

In my opinion (not "retaliatory") overpopulation effects started hitting the USA really bad by 1980. Since 1970, with immigration and their kids, we have gone up another 100+ million, un-needed people who escaped the self made effects of overpopulation in their own country. The 1965 change from the 1924 Act was not thought out and not needed or wanted. The major reform needed is just enforcement of laws which if the fines were paid, would eliminate the National Debt and more. Overpopulation is the root cause of over-pollution and its CAGW. Itself is caused by the over-breeding tendency of mammals, general stupidity and lack of foresight of our species in general, with greed and selfishness, The lack of ecological education has been atrocious.

Methane Apocalypse, Everything Else Is A Distraction. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FnfygE5Lhw Arctic Death Spiral and the Methane Time Bomb Tim the plumber has always been a denialist, and has contributed to insufficient emissions reduction, which leads to the above scenario. AETM ELE.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/ Similar argumants have been cropping up a long time and been debunked.

Human population passed the point at which forced one child families would prevent the population crash not later than mid century, was the end of the last century, unfortunately. It is now at a TBR of near zero to stop it, which is logistically impossible, and psychologically impossible. It is a cascading event area to area, region to region, continent to continent. Nigeria, India, then China leading, perhaps as early as 2030. The graph refered to above is not accurate, like so many others, in that it does not take in increasing death rates along with decreasing birth rates from increasing abject poverty. I used actual mammal population figures and found humans are on the same stimulated mammal population crash curve in 1967. This gave 6 billion 2000AD and mid-century rapid die off. I redid it in 1995 using completely different methodology, data from numerous sources and in multiple disciplines, to very near the same curve, with a slight shift forward in time. The sustainabilty figure for no depletion of soil and water, or other resources, and no pollution of any kind over the natural or forced absorption rates, varies with standard of living. In the end, standard of living boils down to average calories per person per day. Poor is 1500 and below, "Euro" is 2500, and "American" is 3500. Of course there are many other factors fudging it around, like obesity rates, the high fructose corn syrup conspiracy, radioactivity, mercury, oil and coal depletion, or and plastics. Footprints are magnified by TBR, and the sad reality is Earth is at least 7 times max population at "Euro" levels. Sustainable level itself is going down and accelerating, with depletion and pollution effects on the biosphere. There are possible geologic solutions, that could not only prevent the crash, but maybe even prevent the eventual AETM ELE. Katla, Cascadia, LaPalma--all due, if large enough, could trigger mass die off before the tundra positive feedback loop is completely formed. If people go to one child families, it could delay the crash to a point of almost no resources left on a planet disrupted for 3 to 10 million years or, if the "Venus Effect" is initiated, until solar nova. There is also the possibility of nuclear war, which would be very difficult to keep below nuclear winter threshold, or toxic planetary irradiation.