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Everything posted by J.C.MacSwell
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Anyone else hoping to breath a sigh of relief on the morning of Jan 21st?
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As per Janus's post, maybe keep the options ready and hopefully Trump manages to limp across the finish line without creating any more havoc. OTOH Pelosi and company may be looking at impeaching him as early as Monday...I guess they believe he will be on his best behavior over the weekend. https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/washington-dc-riots-trump-news-friday/index.html?tab=Impeachment Push
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Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling
J.C.MacSwell replied to MigL's topic in Politics
From Fox News https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-wont-attend-biden-inauguration ""To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th," the president tweeted. The president’s tweet comes after he spoke at a rally Wednesday, telling supporters that he would "never concede" and repeated unsubstantiated claims that the election was "stolen" from him and that he won in a "landslide."" Seems Trump, while unwilling to concede, is at least acknowledging that Biden will be inaugurated. -
Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling
J.C.MacSwell replied to MigL's topic in Politics
You are correct. Just not consistently by everyone. Carry on with plan A. I might be overrating civil discourse. -
Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling
J.C.MacSwell replied to MigL's topic in Politics
I'm sure if the best of the BLM movement, the emphatic but peaceful protesting, had been acknowledged to have acceptable limits, and the violence consistently condemned, there may have been at least a few less wingnuts unloosing themselves on your Capitol yesterday...not that that makes those wingnut's any less responsible for their actions...but it might say something toward civil discourse. Also note that I'm not equating the two, the BLM riots (in fairness rioting, as most weren't there to riot) and yesterdays attack on the Capitol. But while the second is potentially far more dangerous, both are to be condemned. How many Democrats and Republicans consistently condemned both? -
Make the Confederacy Great Again!
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Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling
J.C.MacSwell replied to MigL's topic in Politics
Emergency measures this could be reasonably done, probably through some judicial body and the court system longer term, but it's a slippery slope if platforms are left to decide this on their own. Unless they want to be responsible for all of their content. As far as yesterday's events being a blow to democracy; one could hope it could be a cathartic event that could enhance it. Any hopes of Trump running in 2024 should surely have taken a hit, have they not? -
Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling
J.C.MacSwell replied to MigL's topic in Politics
You're trying to tell me Trump's victory wasn't by a landslide? Now I don't know who to believe...you or Trump. -
Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling
J.C.MacSwell replied to MigL's topic in Politics
I know everyone insists I'm equally hard on each side...but I'll just point out that I saw some Democ"rats" one's as well.😛 In Trump's defence though...it seems he was actually robbed of a landslide victory: "These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long," Trump tweeted. "Go home with love & peace." We all would be a little upset if that happened to us... Sure, but I'm going to vote for the party that insists the US will foot the bill.😉 -
Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling
J.C.MacSwell replied to MigL's topic in Politics
I looked for a rats off ship image and came upon this...it's about a year and a half old but might fit better today. -
Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling
J.C.MacSwell replied to MigL's topic in Politics
Right on time... I know McConnell had already congratulated Biden, but I doubt he would have made this speech yesterday https://abc7.com/mitch-mcconnell-speech-donald-trump-senate-joint-session-congress/9410912/ "Mitch McConnell breaks from Trump in blistering speech McConnell: 'If this election were overturned by mere allegations from the losing side, our democracy would enter a death spiral.'" -
Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling
J.C.MacSwell replied to MigL's topic in Politics
Just an opinion, but I think there will be less Republicans supporting and/or condoning Trumps "efforts" now that the polls have closed in Georgia. -
What might be the alternative? You quoted and wrote both, and they're in the order you did so. Maybe you were simply being disingenuous and forgot what you had posted?
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Just stating it for a little clarity. But apparently not enough for everyone. Then he should share it with the courts, because he’s lost or had dismissed all of the 60-odd legal challenges he and his team have made But I think he's got it now. Exactly
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There he is, voting in honour of his recently deceased family members...and the Dems still complain about it.
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But on topic "I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have. Because we won the state.” is asking to counter election fraud with election fraud if his challenges are only due to suspect illegal Democrat votes, and don't include at least a claim of 11780 or more GOP votes being illegally discounted. Even if he believes the "we won the state" part, I would think that would be illegal, but at the same time I wouldn't bet money that Trump would realize it.
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As per CY's post above, the question is how accurate they are at predicting outcomes. They can get that wrong even when being generally or largely accurate. The fact remains that they tend to slightly underestimate GOP support, for some reason/s.
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It's fairly trivial to find anecdotal examples, real examples, of election fraud in any sizable election. This would be for either side. The judges who, correctly, dismissed Trump's legal challenges would not have just taken that into consideration, they generally would have even pointed it out when providing their decision. Not that they shouldn't, or don't, follow up where the fraud occurs, and would go further if it had a reasonable chance of affecting the election. Trump can huff and puff, but your judiciary is more solid brick than straw or sticks. (If he has any real proof of substantial fraud he has a chance for same reason...but it's extremely unlikely he has) All that notwithstanding, there are serious concerns going forward with ensuring online voting remains secure. Anyone else suspect that part of the GOP support for Trump's challenges is simply to keep his support for the Georgia Senate election and that part may diminish slowly afterward regardless of outcome?
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I'm sure he has some. Just no where near enough to change the outcome. Where there's smoke...there's not necessarily full blown forest fires...
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It's a small percentage effect, so even if the tendency is a slight one this can play a part.
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Without actually listening to the links I suspect you pretty much nailed it.
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As I've suggested, it's not just people who lie. You have to include the one's who are simply unwilling to participate in the polls. They too skew the results. I don't know what explanation you have offered. Is there more than just this?: Why would you think that would lead to a consistent Democrat bias in polling results? (not to be interpreted as intentional bias)
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One more day and Trump will no longer be a useful idiot of the GOP, as far as current elections go, when the balloting closes in Georgia. Current polling puts both Democrat candidates leading marginally. The results could reflect on the discussion, but I'm not sure in what way.
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Mach 8 is going to be above the terminal velocity, so assuming it's no longer is powered, it will be slowing down regardless of angle of descent.
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“We live in a country where people will lie to their accountant, they’ll lie to their doctor, they’ll lie to their priest,” says Cahaly. “And we’re supposed to believe they shed all of that when they get on the telephone with a stranger?” Clearly then, not the homogenous group you seem to be implying the Trump voters are. Though surely you would have known any "shy" Trump voters would be underrepresented in any photos of mobs yielding Trump signs. The polls vs actual results have some reason or reasons. That's my opinion (as well as others as per the link) The further point I was making in addition to SNostalgia's is that they, the "shy" Trump voting group, don't even have to lie...they'll skew the results simply by refusing to be polled due to their dislike of Trump (or simple embarrassment to admit they actually like him) Let me know what you think of the article, and whether you agree or not with the gist of it. It was written late October before the election.