Alan Watson

Indeed, the underlying common cause is of most interest as the main aim of the research is to identify recognizable behaviour patterns which may be indicative of an increased risk of earthquakes before they occur. Your quake followed by freak weather followed by increased / decreased riot activity sequence does not lend itself to the advance warning of an increased risk of quake. The hypotheses I tested were : ‘There is a significantly higher incidence of riots and disorder in the 14 days immediately before earthquakes of 2.5ML or greater [in England and Wales 1980 to 2012] than would be expected by chance.’ and conversely ‘There is a significantly lower incidence of riots and disorder after more than 140 days has passed since the last most recent earthquake and when more than 14 days remain before the following earthquake of 2.5ML or greater [in England and Wales 1980 to 2012], than would be expected by chance.’ The probabilities of the hypotheses being wrong have been shown to be substantially less than 1% in both cases.

Thank you for your interest Studiot As you mentioned the weather, one aspect of my research was to look at the distribution of riots as they occurred in months of the year. There was a clear correlation showing a higher incidence of riots in the summer months. A Plot published in my work is attached which is % riots by month plotted against average hours of sunshine by month for the majority of the study period in England & Wales. Very many disparate influences contribute to the onset of rioting, including sociological, economic, racial, religious, sporting, confinement & weather. This shows that when there are so many influences, the possibility of further contributory factors not previously considered may indeed play a part in the onset of violence, including, in the case of my study, the effects of tectonic stress. Chart 3-1 for Science Forum.pdf

I would hope that this may be an appropriate Forum for consideration of a Cross-Disciplinary Theory. Having published a summary of my research into the Theory of a Human Response to Tectonic Stress there was very little response from the Geoscientific Community. This may be because work has only recently developed on the interactions between the lithosphere and the biosphere. This is not a 'pure' Geological theory and neither does it fit comfortably in the Humanities. Can I urge this Forum to consider the possibility that the effects of tectonic stress may influence human behaviour. A summary of my research can be found on the Geological Society of London's website at the following link : http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/Geoscientist/Archive/November-2013/Gravity-and-mind Briefly, having undertaken a comparative study of the timing of riots and civil disturbance relative to the timing of earthquakes in England and Wales between 1980 and 2012, my research has found a compelling statistical significance in a higher than expected number of riots in the 14 days prior to earthquakes of 2.5ML or greater. The probability of the tested hypotheses being wrong have been shown to be less than 1%. This is not just a new theory; it may even be a New Science! Alan Watson UK Ground Investigation Specialist and Civil Engineer