Curious523

I mean, even if you don't know what the odds are the odds don't go away, they still affect the likelihood of one team winning (I.e., your prediction being right or wrong). So even if I were to make my prediction based off a coin toss, my ultimately being right or wrong is in the hands of odds which are not 50/50, correct?

Buy the odds of one team winning over another? Doesn't that play into his choice being right or wrong whether anyone knows it or not

So I did a little experiment. I looked up the schedule for the day's baseball games and randomly chose someone to win for 14 games (and I know baseball like I know the mating habits of unicorns so no bias). If you randomly guess on a coin toss each toss, you should be right 50% of the time and wrong the other 50% (or close to that) because it is 50/50. I flipped a coin 98 times with 7 trials of 14 flips as a control; six of the trials ended in 6 heads/tails to 8 and the other was exactly 7 to 7. Now, when I got the results of the baseball games, this distribution did not occur. For this, it was 10 to 4. So, statistically it seems even guessing isn't 50/50. Also, I'm doing another trial today with the day's football games.

But if you guess randomly, since one team WILL win (and the other lose) and your pick is 50% of the total number of possible outcomes, isn't it 50/50 in that way?

But isn't it that the odds of whatever team you pick has of winning are your odds of you being correct? You may pick a team randomly/guess, but the odds are still not 50/50. And, what if it's "who will win the match between say, the Eagles and the Raiders?"

So my friend was correct to say it was still 50/50?

A friend of mine correctly predicted who would win a football game (college I think so no tie) the other day. He was congratulated by my other friend but another dismissed his prediction as 50/50. An argument ensued as obviously football games themselves are not (necessarily) 50/50 like heads vs tails on a balanced coin is 50/50. My question is: Does my friend who dismissed my other friend's prediction have a point in any way? He did acknowledge that there were odds in play but insisted that "it's still 50/50." Not sure what "it" is then. Also, I know that if you guess on a multiple choice test (4 choices to a question), you have a 25/75 of getting it right. Is that like what's going on here? Since there are only 2 answers to who will win the game, it's 50/50 of being correct, right?