toucana

Trump world always feels to me rather like the nested reality simulations in this film:

Erstwhile Trump fanboi and accomplice Roger Stone on X just a week ago - some hope 😕

This line from the list of federal programs with expired authorizations which Vivek Ramaswamy is threatening to axe refers to the Federal Aviation Administration, a subsection of the Department of Transport. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration It’s only responsible for air-traffic control throughout the whole of US airspace, and the safety certification of all civilian aircraft flown there, as well as issuing, suspending and revoking pilot certificates - nothing important…

According to a recent post on X, Vivek Ramaswamy who will be running the new DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) in tandem with Elon Musk, now wants to defund all federal programs with expired authorizations. Brian Riedl, an economic policy expert and senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute (a highly conservative think-tank) has posted a list of some of the largest expired programs that would be squarely in the crosshairs of any such cuts. The list includes the Veterans Health Care Eligibility, NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, America’s Water Infrastructure Act - and many more. Meidas Touch - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26mYtMsNX6Q

Matt Gaetz had his iPhone seized three years ago by the FBI on a probable cause warrant, and was under criminal investigation for alleged Federal sex trafficking offences involving a 17 y/o girl. https://www.businessinsider.com/matt-gaetz-iphone-seized-fbi-sex-trafficking-probe-2021-4 He was widely expected to face criminal charges under the Mann act which bars the transportation of “any woman or girl for the purpose of prostitution or debauchery, or for any other immoral purpose” across state lines. But the criminal investigation ran into problems with the courtroom credibility of two key accomplice witnesses involved: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/justice-departments-sex-trafficking-investigation-rep-matt-gaetz-seems-rcna49229 The case was formally closed in February 2023 https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-11-14/what-are-the-investigations-into-matt-gaetz-trumps-pick-for-attorney-general If confirmed, Gaetz would become the first Attorney General in US history to have previously been under Federal investigation for sexual trafficking and statutory rape. He was previously arrested for a felony DUI offence in Florida in 2008 but the charges were dropped, and the arresting officer fired after the intervention of his father - who was a Florida state senator.

So, Matt Gaetz resigns from Congress on the back of his AG pick by Trump just two days before a *Republican* controlled Congressional House Ethics Committee was due to vote on releasing a highly damaging report on its investigation into accusations of sex-trafficking and drug abuse against him on Friday. Funny that ..

A ventriloquist’s dummy and полезные дураки or ‘Useful idiot’ for Vladimir Putin, who was outed in 2018 by Hillary Clinton as someone the Kremlin was thought to be grooming as a third-party candidate and proxy. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/18/politics/hillary-clinton-tulsi-gabbard/index.html

Trump has nominated Matt Gaetz - yes that Matt Gaetz - as his pick for Attorney General. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/13/politics/matt-gaetz-attorney-general/index.html A guy who was recently under both criminal and Congressional Ethics Committee investigations for Mann Act offences involving the sexual trafficking of minors across state borders, and a 'legislator' who wants to abolish both the DOJ and the FBI.

According to Sky news, Trump has now confirmed the appointment of Elon Musk to his cabinet to co-lead a new 'Department of Government Efficiency' (DOGE for short) with Vivek Ramaswamy. https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-confirms-elon-musk-in-his-cabinet-13253406

Inamullah Samangani, head of the information and culture department of the Taliban in Kandahar has formally congratulated Americans for “Not handing leadership of their great country to a woman” - in a post on X. https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/taliban-congratulate-americans-for-not-handing-leadership-of-their-great-country-to-a-woman-385406/

MAGA supporters misunderstand how trade tariffs work so badly that many of them think tariffs are a tax paid by China. This Meidas Touch video includes a clip by YT comedian and activist Walter Masterton in which he explains to a young Trump supporter that trade tariffs are in fact a tax paid by US importers which they will then pass on to US consumers in the form of raised retail prices - which was apparently a Damascene revelation to that young entrepreneur. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xI_3aZxvrEk In another clip, a US importer points out there is practically nothing you can buy on shop shelves that doesn’t contain (or rely on) raw materials and precursors imported from abroad. Everything will be affected, everything will cost more. Some of Trump’s most enthusiastic supporters are said to be Gen-Z gamers who will shortly find out that gaming consoles like their beloved PS5 or Nintendo Switches will cost up to 40% more. Mark Cuban (of Shark Tank fame) has some sobering words for those who think that the economic consequences of trade tariffs won’t be happening for some time. In reality they are already happening - right now ! Quite a few business employees will shortly discover that they won’t be receiving any Xmas bonuses this December, as US importers adopt defensive positions:

A BBC News article notes that Trump benefited from a massive 14% bump in support from Latino voters according to exit polls. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo Trump garnered almost 42% of the Latino vote in Pennsylvania - almost 5% of the total vote - compared to 27% when he ran against Joe Biden in 2020. When asked to explain why the Latino vote had shifted so decisively towards Trump, members of that community cited principally the economy and inflation. It will be interesting to see if they still feel the same way in about six months time, once the economy starts to crater and inflation rockets after Trump commences a trade Tariff war with the rest of the world.

Were you asleep during president Trump’s first term in 2017 when he attempted to block all muslims from entering USA, and began ranting to his aides about migrants coming from ‘sh&ithole’ countries’, and demanding to know why America wasn’t prioritising the arrival of blue-eyed blond haired people from Scandinavian countries like Norway ? Were you under a rock on another planet on January 6th 2021 when Trump incited a violent lynch mob to attack the Capitol in an attempt to hang his own VP, after Mike Pence refused to subvert the constitution and throw out the results of the 2020 presidential election ? Did you have your fingers firmly in your ears during the recent final Trump rallies this year when he referred to Kamela Harris as a ‘b*tch’ - or were you perhaps watching another channel when Trump’s rally at the Madison Square Garden NY on October 27 was being broadcast - appropriately enough on the 85th anniversary of the infamous swastika bedecked Nazi mass rally organised by the German American Bund at the same venue in 1939 ? Did you perhaps miss seeing Trump and his allies smirking and clapping along as ‘comedians’ and other surrogates told viciously anti-semitic jokes, made racist comments about Latino-Americans, and referred to Kamala Harris as the ’antichrist’, and characterised her as a “whore “ with ‘pimp handlers’ ? Just curious…

First impressions on the 2024 election result - (As a Brit living over the pond): i. Many Americans pay little attention, and give even less critical thought to the finer details of daily politics and current affairs. They tend to receive and form opinions based on what they hear on hyper-partisan cable media, and are likely to believe whatever they are told about prices, employment and migration. If some shock-jock assures them that jars of Goober cost twice what they did four years ago because Puerto Rican migrants are eating their pets, they are inclined to take that as gospel, and go off and vote for whoever they think is likely to solve the problem ( N.B. Brits are no better - It’s how we wound up with Brexit and a leader like Bojo). ii. Ambrose Bierce once said “War is God’s way of teaching Americans Geography”. You might add that nowadays a US presidential election seems to be God’s way of teaching Americans History, and unfortunately many Americans who have no real first-hand experience of what mainstream fascism really entails seem to be determined to find out the hard way. iii. When Speaker Tip O’Neill said “All politics is local”, he was actually quoting a piece of proverbial wisdom dating back to 1932. But it’s frighteningly true if you ever travel as a Brit to America and live in California or Colorado for a month or two. The USA is huge ! It’s a continent, not a country. Down in Chula Vista on the California-Mexico border, Washington DC and its media political bubble seem as remote as the Vatican in Rome must have seemed to a Roman Catholic monk living in Finland in the Middle Ages. Many Americans are simply not interested in that political world, and their concerns are purely local ones. iv. I do fear that the Kamala Harris campaign was hobbled from the outset by its emollient and inclusive sentiments and instincts. Unfortunately America presidential elections are not often exercises in statesmanship and decorous civility. They have frequently tended to be bloody handed knock-down bar-room brawls, well into living memory - for those who can recall the virulent anti-Catholic rhetoric levelled at JFK in 1960, or the teargas mayhem outside the Democratic Convention in Chicago in 1968. America has now demonstrated for the second time that it is simply not ready or capable of accepting a female leader - and for the foreseeable future, it probably never will be.

As it seems to be upsetting MAGA Republicans, Fox TV Hosts, and Russian Troll-bots alike - it's probably worth flagging up this mischievous and wittily written 'Go Vote' advert from the 'Vote Harris/Walz' campaign.

Recent polling analysis by the Harvard Institute of Politics suggests that Kamala Harris is leading by up to 30% amongst younger voters - especially women. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4953612-harvard-institute-poll-gender-gap-harris-trump/ Amidst reports of half-empty Trump rallies with audience members leaving after just 5 minutes, the inescapable conclusion seems to be that momentum has shifted towards Kamala Harris in the crucial final week before the election on Tuesday. Critics can point to various factors such as the negative optics of Trump’s October 27 event in Madison Square Gardens which was unpleasantly redolent of the infamous ‘German American Bund’ Nazi rally held there in 1939 - complete with racist insults and overt threats of violence towards their ‘enemies’. Subsequent MAGA attempts to exploit the ‘Garbage’ meme backfired spectacularly when Trump appeared like a senile dustman aboard a garbage truck, and his supporters began dressing in garbage sacks - which prompted one prominent conservative influencer and former ally Nick Fuentes to denounce MAGA as a cult. https://www.newsweek.com/nick-fuentes-slams-donald-trump-supporters-it-cult-1979186 But one thing in particular that stands out, was the profound unwisdom of the Trump campaign in allowing some of his most unsavoury affiliates and surrogates to start spitballing in public about what jobs they would take up in a new Trump administration, and which radical agendas they proposed to ‘follow from day one’. There had already been a certain amount of cautious and reasoned speculation about whom Trump might appoint to his cabinet if he wins - e.g. this well researched article in Politico. https://www.politico.com/interactives/2024/potential-cabinets/trump-second-term-cabinet/ All of this however was completely eclipsed by the following garish media events: - Robert Kennedy Jr announcing that he had been promised control of the Public Health Services, and would begin pulling ‘ineffective’ vaccines from the market. --> https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rfk-jr-trump-promised-control-public-health-agencies/story?id=115303649 - Elon Musk announcing that he would be put in charge of a ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ - aka DOGE (*wink-wink*), and start firing staff and tearing down Federal Government, just like he did at Twitter.--> https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/22/tech/elon-musk-government-efficiency/index.html - Aileen Cannon, the Florida district judge being touted by Trump as future Attorney General as a quid pro quo for (temporarily) dismissing the Mar-a-Lago Espionage Act charges against him.--> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-aileen-cannon-attorney-general-b2634284.html As US comedian Joey Adams once said - “With friends like these, who needs enemies ?” You could hardly think of anything more likely to focus the minds of voters on the implications and possible consequences of the choices they will make on Tuesday.

The gem here was that the real driver of that garbage truck happened to be a dead-ringer for Terhune - full face, balding head, and a flowing ginger/red beard. Brent said in another podcast that all he had to do was buy a cheap yellow HiViz jacket from a costume store, jam a black WCW forage cap on his head - and then turn the camera on ! I first saw one of Terhune’s videos back in September 2020, when he pretended to be one of the MAGA boat owners who had sunk on Lake Travis in Texas during a Trump boat parade. I had to watch that one twice to be quite sure it was a parody https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayCLE_ctpYg

Garbage-Force One incoming ! ICYMI - Conservative activist and podcaster Charlie Kirk first posted, then rapidly deleted this video on his X account after discovering it was a complete hoax made by Brent Terhune, a standup comedian who specialises in impersonating southern state MAGA cult members. Watch Brent Terhune on —> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6IzHU849i4

A pair of Australian mathematicians Stephen Woodcock and Jay Falletta have published a new paper called A numerical evaluation of the Finite Monkeys Theorem which demonstrates that the estimated lifespan of our universe renders it impossible for an infinite number of monkeys to type out the complete works of Shakespeare. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186324001014 As a BBC news article explains:

According to the 12th Amendment to the United States Constitution (passed in 1803) there is no constitutional requirement upon states to even hold a popular vote at all. US Presidents were to be chosen on the basis of votes cast by nominated state electors, or by contingent elections in Congress if such votes were tied. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution The popular vote wasn’t formally recorded until 1824, and didn’t become the customary basis for selecting electors in all states until the presidential election of 1880. In one of the most contentious presidential elections of US history in 1876, the Democratic party contender Samuel J. Tilden lost to his Republican opponent Rutherford B. Hayes - in spite of the fact that Tilden had won both a plurality of the popular vote (50.9%), *and* a majority of the Electoral College votes (184-165). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1876_United_States_presidential_election Q. So how on earth did he lose ? A. Twenty of the Electoral College votes were disputed and passed to an Electoral Commission who voted along party lines to award the disputed Electoral votes and the presidency to the Republican candidate Rutherford B. Hayes who became the 19th President serving from 1877-1881. This incidentally was the last US Presidential election in which both candidates were sitting governors.

Duolingo the popular foreign language learning app is famous for offering quite bizarre sentences as exercises. This one turned up at an early stage in the Duolingo Scottish Gaelic course when I was trying to improve my grasp of an ancestral language. I'm still struggling to imagine an appropriate social context for this remark.

An article published yesterday by The New Republic (TNR) discusses at some length the malign influence of so called ‘polls’ released by right leaning US firms in the last few weeks, which in a number of cases appear to be openly partisan attempts to shift the aggregate polls in favour of Trump, and to create a false illusion of momentum trending in favour of MAGA https://newrepublic.com/article/187425/gop-polls-rigging-averages-trump What is happening is that the psephological marketplace is being flooded with new polls from right-wing fly-by-night operators, and this data is then being included into national polling averages by such aggregators as FiveThirtyEight and The New York Times - among others. The latter adamantly deny that GOP polls are seriously harming their averages and forecasts - but a better question would be - Why is this garbage being included by aggregators in the first place ? The aggregators say that they apply negative weightings to polls which are thought to be systematically biased to ensure they have less influence than high-quality polls with better standards of empirical accuracy and more methodological transparency. Critics are sceptical about this - and with reason.They point out that while many of the distortions introduced into the averages by these skewed MAGA leaning polls may be statistically insignificant - e.g. a ‘lead’ of 0.4% - they are being actively exploited for psychological propaganda effect by social media entities such as X/Twitter who will claim that Trump is “Winning the state”, and then even more irresponsibly assign electoral college votes based on such narrow leads to ramp up partisan claims that ’Trump is now winning’ - not just even leading, but winning the election - when the underlying data says nothing of the sort. Earlier today I read a report on Sky News whose headline uncritically claimed that “Trump is now the bookies favourite” https://news.sky.com/story/us-election-donald-trump-kamala-harris-democrat-republican-polls-skynews-live-latest-13209921 The reality (as previously noted) is that these claims derive entirely from online betting markets like Betfair and Polymarket which are being heavily manipulated by conservative MAGA investors who are sinking up to $14 million dollars a time into these forums - precisely to generate headlines of this sort.