swansont

You missed the point. It’s not the result, as such, it’s the admission that the model has not been updated i.e. the bit I quoted, and that there’s a rather large shift when it’s corrected.

From a Michigan pollsterThat now has Harris leading https://mirs-uploads.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/5931-MI STATEWIDE MITCHELL POLL -FIELD COPY - EXEC SUMMARY - CROSSTABS OF MI 106PM 11-3-24.pdf “Before polling began, we looked at what we thought would be the likely turnout in 2024. Every poll we conducted --- including this one --- was weighted exactly the same. We weighted party affiliation, gender, age, race, area, and education. It seems clear now that we are under sampling women, African Americans, and the City of Detroit based on absentee ballot returns and early voting.”

“not anybody else's business” doesn’t mean that some won’t try and poke their nose into it, but where people have agency to decide, they tend to keep those intruders out.

All clocks have errors. Mechanical clocks aren’t that great. You might think not gaining or losing a second per day is good, but that’s a fractional frequency stability of about 10^-5. A decent quartz watch is slightly better. If you temperature-stabilize it you’ll do better. Atomic clocks range from around 10^-11 to 10^-16. Cutting-edge frequency standards these days are around 10^-18 Gravitational time dilation near the earth is about 10^-16 per meter of height change. You need atomic clocks to notice.

Meaningless numbers without citing an actual error margin for the polls, and how this aggregate was determined, since polls vary in quality. A final margin of 3.4 when the prediction is e.g. 3 +/- 1 is utterly unsurprising

It’s your thread, so how about you provide the definition for discussion. Even if it’s copying the one provided in the other thread, since one might reasonably assume Night FM was using it?

Plutonium is chemically nasty, like most heavy metals. So ingestion would poison you, in addition to nuclear effects. Pu-239 decays by alpha emission, and alphas aren’t a problem externally - they would be stopped by the dead layer of skin. If inhaled or ingested, though, that would be bad. So don’t eat it, and a bare chunk might have some dust you could inhale. Alpha decays usually don’t have an associated gamma. But further down the decay chain you might have some beta decays, which do. Encasing it will attenuate them somewhat. The dose rate will depend on the number and half-life; Pu-239 has a ~24k year half life, and the daughter, U-235, is over 700 million years, so there wouldn’t be many isotopes from further down the decay chain. Pu-244 has an 80 million year half-life. It alpha decays and occasionally spontaneously fissions, where you would get gammas and products that beta decay. Not sure if the 244 on that one cube indicates the isotope or the average atomic weight. Probably the latter Bigger chunk has more surface area, so more of a problem. Alphas would not tend to make it out of the interior

As opposed to some other kind of clock? What’s the expected precision of this clock? Why does adding gravitational influence make it more precise, when there are gravitational effects other than (and much biggerthan) relativity?

Probably not the best example when you can point to actual data, like not being able to name a single newspaper that she reads, or a SCOTUS decision she disagreed with, other than Roe v Wade, or her retelling of how Paul Revere warned the British. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-irrefutable-stupidity_b_382213 There are plenty of women politicians on the right who are not attacked regarding their intellect. Palin was, because relative to the job she was seeking, she was not smart.

So you only have to show that Biden wouldn’t have named someone else had a clearly better candidate been available.

You should quote the relevant passage. The link discusses making drugs with fewer side effects and fewer conflicts with other medications. Is that it? It’s not that it’s second generation, per se, it’s that you’re adding constraints to the task. Constraints that weren't considered in the effort to get something available because people were dying, and the process takes time.

Who should have children? People who want them, and make the decision to do so. It’s really not anybody else's business whether someone decides to have children or not.

No, it doesn’t. DEI means “consider these candidates, too.” It expands the candidate pool, rather than constricting it. Unless you think organizations with DEI simply do not hire white guys.

I seem to recall having this discussion before (though it may have been SCOTUS rather than VP). Can you say with certainty that the statement of intent happened before the choice/shortlist was determined? He announced that four black women were on the shortlist in July 2020 https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/21/politics/joe-biden-four-black-women-vice-president/index.html When did he definitively say it would be a black woman? This belies what DEI actually, and feeds the incorrect GOP narrative, that DEI means choosing a less-qualified minority/woman (because nobody can be as qualified as a white man) rather than the actual mandate of making sure you consider them, since they are often overlooked, and recognizing that diversity has value The GOP people calling her a DEI hire are not using the latter. But was the consideration that maybe a VP that can represent the perspective of more than half of the constituency might have value, and should be one of the criteria to consider? Yeah, I think that’s actually a smart thing to do.

! Moderator Note If you don’t have a model or evidence to discuss then this doesn’t meet the requirements for speculations

Post that, then or shut up. Assertions without anything to back it up is trolling. Because bitcoin bros say so? You have nothing. Can’t point to inflation, since it didn’t show up, so just where is this tax hiding? Can I? Yes. Will I? No. You haven’t made any case for it being worth my time. You admit not understanding the material, so there’s no reason to think a video you watched has merit. A music video even less so. Forum rules say the discussion happens here. That’s to minimize folks having to wade through spam. We want to hear your arguments, not someone else’s.

I don’t think you can speak for all atheists beyond the commonality of lacking belief in a supreme being.

Characterizing this as a “hoax” is much too forgiving to Kirk. Terhune has been doing this kind of satire for years. Charlie’s just mad that he can’t recognize that form of humor.

As far as SFN goes, for as long as we’ve expected good-faith discussion and outlawed thread hijacking. If you want to change the parameters you open a new thread.

Two snippets from social media, about what many pundits and pollsters are doing wrong by downplaying Dobbs. They haven’t acknowledged/adjusted for how skewed their predictions have been since that decision came down. (paraphrasing) - Imagine a dozen or so states just outright banned guns. Do you think that wouldn’t continually be at the center of discussion? - Women are furious

Did you not understand what is meant by pure democracy, which has already been defined? edit: xpost with iNow

If you have a constitution you don’t have the pure democracy anymore (except for the trivial case of it guaranteeing a pure democracy)

In a very narrow way; you could cause a nuclear excitation, and the excited state could possibly have a shorter half-life (probably only for an isomeric state), which happens in K-38. (~8 min vs ~1 sec, IIRC) You might also cause a nucleon to be ejected, and end up with a shorter half-life, but that’s also unlikely. Hand-wavy assertions, though, are not a substitute for actual physics

Interesting that you mention gravitational potential energy below but ignore it here. The requirement from the uncertainty principle is a return to zero energy (or ground state energy), not nothingness. So if the positive energy of the fluctuation is balanced by the negative gravitational potential energy, there is no violation. What if expansion of space is not limited by c? (which it isn’t)

Probably not by any on the right —- “In 2012 and 2016, early votes were about 36% of all votes. … Fourteen states have already accounted for half of their 2020 vote count with their 2024 early vote tally.” (article date 31 Oct) https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/2024-early-vote-data-map-rcna177666 As they note, 2020 was an outlier for early/absentee voting owing to the pandemic