jackson33
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Everything posted by jackson33
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The "Budget Freezes" are the results of S&D, as students are having trouble getting financing. If it were to continue, cost would decline. Hundreds of Banks or financial institutions have dropped or scaled back 'Student Loans', Wells Fargo the largest and Sallie Mae (major go between on Gov backing) is near bankruptcy. The probability then is the cut backs are for lack of students (financing the School) and the cut classes are as in any other year, where participation determines activation. Further those lab's, lecturers and all facilities are set up for -x- number of active students, while an artificial (subsidized) base increase. Again, most higher educational institutions are non profit (There are for profit, such as the University of Phoenix) where donations are part of income and they are declining. However like any business, when the demand (students) declines the supply must decline or change their model. This is hardly off topic and much of which the reason Obama wants a take over of the funding, in the first place...If I explained the comparison of this issue to that the proposed Universal Medical Service (I could), then that would be off topic....
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Technically, the 4th quarter drop entered the US into a recession, the second quarter with any contraction....(-.2 and -6.2%). For the year 2008, the GDP actually increased 1.28%. Further the 6.4% total reflects previous quarters, not a contraction of 6.4% off the 15Trillion GDP. It's my understanding the suggested 10% figure is based on a period of time and with a result of a 10% drop in actual GDP. A combination where the GDP drops to a pre determined or established figure. In this case that would be somewhere around a GDP of 13.5T GDP... No, under any scenario, we are not now in a depression, but most certainly could enter the technical definition in the next couple years. Frankly the folks trying to provide for themselves or a family, it makes no difference.
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Yes, but it's a wild guess and the reason GDP has been used in recent years to evaluate an economy. Estimated GNP/GNI were used and still are where accurate record keeping is a problem... A couple for instances; Inheritance Money (not earned income), Underground economy, usually associated with illegals (not earned income) and so on, sale of property (farm/home business) or any Capital Gains (not earned income) and of course refinanceing a home, borrowing or use of credit cards (Are not earned incomes. If you argue and some do, that it was at some point a wage to someone, that would be fine, but you cannot determine an annual evaluation of an economy with so many variable. What is sold or bought (goods/service) and in one year, has been the determining factor for some time...Think you'll find the arguments for a National Sales or any Fair Tax, opposed to graduated income taxes, employs the same reasoning.
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It's the simple 'Supply vs Demand' principle. Then with added income and the idea most higher education is 'Non profit' the money must be spent. That is the higher paid personel follow, not lead the cost. If Government didn't back student loans, allowing X number of people who couldn't afford the education, the demand drops followed by the cost. To the thread; During the 2005/6 year, of the 85.9 Billion borrowed for higher education, 68.6 was Federally back and 17.3 was purely private. Estimates are for 86 Billion to be backed in 2009/10, but this could add a few extra billion and prices WILL go up...
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According to Ed.gov, 5.1% defaulted in 2006, with the worst year being 1989 when 22.4% defaulted. If your looking for profit; To start with those that would apply directly to the Government, would be those not eligible through the private sector, not really a good business plan.
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Now that scares me....and should you. You surprise me, for one who supports rights. States have rights as well, much having to do with separation of the Federal authority. We are already getting close (if not passed) just what authority the Federal has over States in the name of 'Emergancy'... In reality, what can be a result of accountability to the Fed and actual, has already been explianed...
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Since the program seems to effect only those loans that would require 'Federal Guarantee' in the first place, its simply a minor intrusion into banking policy. Additionally questionable loans (credit rating), for most any reason have pretty well dried up... Scholarships/Partial Scholarships and Corporate/Private Industry Investment or participation in funding education, directly or through some organization should not be harmed, or those families that have planned ahead, should not be harmed. Along these lines, most all 'Low Interest' emergency loans given through FEMA or some Federal Agency, go through Banks as well and guaranteed by the Fed...That is the idea is a common practice... Keep in mind also, for each 50k students that hit on the Federal, not through a Bank, for 15k$, your talking about an initial outlay of another 750 million. That could add up...
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Actually, Incomes have nothing to do with GDP. GDP, whether based on per capita or the total is simply the value of goods and services produced and sold (factory inventories, another topic do not count). Disposable incomes, what your talking about, can be increased by borrowing (from bank/credit cards) and another problem. Under GNP (Gross National Product) a different and rarely used measure for an economy, is based on income/per capita...
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Not only that, but they could write any result required today for this and the next three years, the time expected for many of the programs. Your talking about 780B, granted to 50 States over four years. I realize States do NOT all receive the same assistance, but that averages out to 3.9B per State per year, chicken feed by all standards. This would be like an average family having to account for a car payment. I mentioned the 15 Billion (12 my error) being sent yesterday to all States. That on average is 300M (.3B) to each State, while the mandated annual budget alone is 632 Billion (12.7 Billion), does not include discretionary funding or special Department Funding or the Taxes each State collects for the same purpose and will be no less in each of the next three years.
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Basically, your trying to say 'Recovery.org' will give a full accounting of where/how the stimulus money is spent. What I am saying is whatever the reports say, are convoluted and or no real accountability is possible. States receive Grants, almost daily from the Federal Government; From mandated budget items; Programs, by law the Federal must assist based on populations of districts and/or States. Discretionary budget spending; This is currently being discussed, the House has passed and the normal process for Congress to return Taxes to the various States. Its based on the US Budget, in this case for the remainder of the year and based on expectation of revenues. The odd ball in this cycle is the 'Stimulus Bill' which is in effect nothing more than a unfunded 'Appropriation' Bill and designed for whatever purpose you like to think. There are other funding received by States, such as in the Farm Bill, High Way Programs that are periodical, not annual and has perceived needed, said to be funded by set aside receipts (gas taxes etc). Just as the Federal, every State basically throws all receipts, from the Federal, from their own Tax systems (quite extensive) into one pot, general funds. This will happen with the Stimulus Funds, just as well, really no choice. The combinations of receipts, in many cases are duplicated crating in this case massive increases in certain projects, including welfare, unemployment and yes construction projects. What is required to be spent from the 'SB', can very easily be obliged to, while excess funding can go anywhere, undetected by any conceivable oversight. I am not condemning 'Recovery.org' or it's intentions, just that its not practical, if said to be giving an accurate accounting of one relatively small portion of the total which will still not be accounted for...
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Happy you went to the doctor, what you should have done in the first place...Your story however still doesn't add up and RM follow up is extensive. Three of four cases also involve kid's 5-15, which you are/were in...so advancements in treatment have probably changed follow up... Normally I wouldn't even post on any medical problem, but having had RF, when I was 12, placed on penicillin for a year and aspirin for another year, have today both an enlarged and out of place heart, your post bothered me...It was the fact you DID spell (the complicated word) correctly, that made me think, you probably did have it, not any condemnation of your spelling. Strep, by the way is OFTEN followed by RF...For the record, now nearly five times your age, have never had heart problems since.
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Obama announced this morning (Governor's Conference), 12 Billion would be sent out to States this week to help with Medicare/Medicaid/SCHIP programs. According to your site, this money will be placed in a separate account and draws on these accounts accessible to anyone wanting access. YES, this is good... What your not considering is the 632 Billion (mandated funding), that the Federal Grants automatically goes to States (2009 Budget, Wikipedia, not including Grants funding taking from discretionary spending) that goes directly into general funds in all States. This near 53 Billion each month can easily be used on any item, making sure their little portion of the 12B is used according to mandates. Since it's my understanding the entire 780B is designed to spread out funding for years to come, any actual accounting can be easily be made, but the end result of what was actually achieved not possible. The normal problems usually found in projects (building roads etc), come from the contracting, sub contracting and locations of the project, although it's the best of the entire 'Stimulus Bill', for the intended purpose. Once this money is dedicated to a project, accountability will not be possible IMO...
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In essence, that is what arguments to you have been. Since no laws are being broken, what grounds are there for a test case. That is if a winning Candidate, an accepted Federal/State Employee or for that matter any Military person, refuses to say 'Under God', it is already perfectly acceptable to all laws. Many don't... Art. VI, section three is actually invoked, when a person insist on 'Under God' be part of an Oath... I would bet there are hundreds of items in any Constitution or Corporate By Laws, which can be understood as improper, more likely some issue not even mentioned, but so long as no 'HARM' is created, there is no reason/cause to rewrite or spend millions to correct.
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The entire plan is a misrepresentation of facts and double talk... Actual 2009 Budget and estimated incomes, based on GWB Budget, from last Oct. to Oct. 2009. Estimated; Revenue to Federal Government 2.7 Trillion Expenses, both mandated and discretionary 3.1 Trillion 2009 GDP 15.007 Trillion this means taxes are based on 18% of GDP NOW. He is basing figures on the remaining time from Jan. 20th 2009 to Oct., yet holding to an entire 2009 estimated GDP. No year in the past 60 years have tax collections been less than 18-19% of GDP...The main reason collections have held, in the first place is the increase in GDP of 50% from 2002 to 2008. GDP, cannot possibly hold at 15T in 2009 or in 2010 IMO. Revenues certainly are not going to increase, probably dropping 10% (or more) as most those that pay the majority of taxes including Income Taxes, Capital Gains, and Corporate Taxes,have been planning on this Administration since November and others (including business) since Obama overtook Ms. Clinton in in August 2008. Then SS/Medicare, which makes up a good share of revenue will be well down. Corporate profits have been tanking for two quarters and the big payers (oil related) will be well off their recent highs. I fully expect, based on this lack of revenue, between Congress and Obama 2009 Tax codes will be enacted and back to 1/1/2009 incomes. Keep in mind the Interest due on just the programs enacted from Oct. 2008 to date (at least 2T and growing) the Interest due will add to Mandatory spending. Boring stuff, but had to give my 2 cents....
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So all the Hindu, Muslims, Buddhist, Polygamist or no telling how many minorities segments of society, SHOULD feel like second class citizens. I am agnostic, feel their may be something other than 'time on earth', just not what is presented by todays religion. Frankly I consider myself a first class citizen, BUT understand the government and laws are going to follow the majority rule. Same in politics, not every election has turned out to my liking. Texas, is a State that happens to have one of the oldest Constitutions of all States. Many, if not most that could be older, have long been re-written, over a quarter have been, since WWII. Texas has amended 456 times, or clarified parts on their document, which tells me they are willing if that 'stupid majority' so desires. No State in the US has less than 70% that believe in some form of creation, many to degrees beyond science or in my opinion logic, but frankly sir, they do have RIGHTS and minorities are the villains in my mind. I suggest you read up some on minority rights in many societies around the worlds 6.6 Billion people, and realize just how good we have had it...
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Transparency, offered by the Administration!!! I mentioned a couple items, with a near 35B price tag, bascule (response to) didn't know and I doubt even you knew about. As for off topic; Politics by nature is complicated and issues tend to run together or are interconnected. ecoli; In fairness this 'Bill' and the one aiding the 'Financial System' are whats called emergency legislation. Under law, they can be legislated and placed into law, with out a discussion on 'how to pay'. Both parties will place anything they can into such a bill and have many times, for just this reason. As for the reality 'paying for the programs'; Congress can only disperse Grants/Money to the limits of the current legal deficit. First they need to increase the legal limits of this to a point, borrowing can be attempted or the Federal Reserve can print actual money to cover. That is no one has any idea just how anything is going to be paid...Appropriation Bill's, on the other hand are limited to projected revenues and have some means of increasing, if in fact above the budget, they are working with. This can include cuts from other yet used funding or from set aside funding and really gets complicated.
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Stephen; Don't get discouraged, you caught my attention with dispersion and their are a good many skeptics of BBT. You offered a good rebuttal in the site listed and are in 'Speculations'. I don't bother posting here on BBT, but you might want to check out NASA's light photons available to increased distances. In a 8-10 minute exposure, from the furthest objects, maybe one is observed/recieved, distance reflects that dispersion...
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*Legislative Reference Library of Texas* Shows no amendments offered to change Article 1, Section 4 of their constitution. The Texas Legislature has passed 632 amendments, of which 456 have been ratified by the voters. I would suggest, applications for employment or the placement on to any elected office on any ballot, has no mention of religious preference (is in their constitution) or if you acknowledge a superior being. I would further suggest, Taxes may have plenty of folks working or having been elected, that are in fact atheist. Having lived in the Austin Area, in Texas and doing business most of my life I could name a good many. I see no reason for condemnation of the US Legal System or that of any State, to justify personal preferences of any one person. If nit-picking gets to that point, we are in serious trouble. And by the way, you cannot carry a gun legally into any Arkansas Church and what on earth reason would an atheist want to be in one, in the first place.
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I would agree, anything offering transparency is a good thing, if the information is accurately and in total context. Omissions, things not said, can be deceiving and ultimately serve an agenda. I would ask you to google, *Stimulus Watch* a private think tank that has followed this from the beginning. stimulaswatch.org the site. PR is under most expensive projects. Government can tell you only what States get what grants, not what the States actually do with the money. Yes, if it goes on to what I think are your expectation, I'll be the first to acknowledge...
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DH, makes an interesting point. However no State Constitution trumps the Federal or law established by the Congress or the SC. Both by making law, establish the date, when no State can THEN make law or enforce any existing law on an issue. That is on the books or not, they cannot be enforced. Under *Strange/Silly/Dumb Laws*, there are hundreds, in constitutions or on the books, that have long been forgotten. I am sure many carry Sodomy, abortion or race laws, voting among others that are just assumed off the books...
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Transparency??? Do you think 1100+ pages of 100% questionable/arguable programs to CREATE JOBS, stimulate the consumer can be clarified in one short webb site... Did you know; Puerto Rico, will receive 23 Billion nearly the 24 Billion California will receive. Did you know PR is not even a State and has a total 74B GDP, compared to California's 1,700B (1.7T). Did you know PR has 4 M people, compared to 36M in California. Did you know these dollars were 15B, then cut but came back as 23B. Did you know Senator Reid's Las Vegas, will get a monorail from the LA area to LV, that was originally listed at 2B, cut and came back just before printing as an 8B$ project. I would bet, not one project with a said cost could be justified by any project manager and we have a couple, three on this site. Aside from that, no matter what Block Grants are given to any State, or what is said will be used for the suggested purpose. The probability is they will be thrown into general funds, used first to square State deficits, other needed projects or just used for future problems. In PR, some may go to promoting Statehood, in turn generate 7 Electoral votes, 5 House and 2 Senators, with a 99% probability voting Democrat. No State, that I know of list on the Webb every expense and certainly not going to start with this amount of extra cash. DrDNA; That 81B is extra, with a good share of mandated or discretionary funds allocated by Congress each year designed to cover those cost. Obama is now working on a program to finance housing, in part for the same people that 81B was intended to help. Think about another 80B. Whats really bad, is thousands of those trying to keep up with Taxes/Payments will now quit trying, with additional millions wondering just whats going on...while they have always tried to keep up with obligations, now having to pay toward others, who have not. It's going to get messy. IMO.
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John; Thank you for the input. Before posting, I read through the Wikipedia version of *Parliamentary Systems* and do realize there are many formats/models. There is/was no intent to undermine any of them, but establish that their is a difference, in particular what the US practices today. You will note the US Constitution, which outlines a system for governing is MUCH closer to Parliamentary than what we practice today. In practice however, the US has maintained two party platforms in governing the total most all its history, under separations. The Executive and Legislatures have rarely been the same party. We cannot oust a President for lack of confidence, where in most P systems, the PM can be, regardless of popularity. Frankly, during times like today and with the issues involved, it would be a full time job, just maintaining a coalition with a Congress. Pangloss; I can't over emphasize the founders concerns over an ignorant societies influence over matters that they would/could not by nature have interest in or understanding of the consequences. Of all the buffers or restrictions placed on who was then eligible have in large part been ignored or abolished over the years. Since we have this situation and it's not possible or desirable to change policy, something should be done, to educate/indoctrinate or explain to the electorate and from outside some party representatives understanding, as much of what that vote may mean to the Nations future opposed to their personal concerns. I am not going to pretend knowing the answer, but as it was suggested and IMO agreeing, SOMETHING MUST BE DONE, or get ready for a Hanna Montana Administration.
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I have been kind of hoping folks living under the 'Parliamentary System' would join in this conversation. If any one living in the US, thinks choice of the electorate is limited, Prime Ministers, come from their Parliament. In short the US has a system of Three Branches, with separation of powers. The hoped end result being a form of checks and balances. Parliamentary systems are designed for total power of the prevailing affiliation of the Parliament. An example in the US how a third party can influence an election, which in some degree has happened 13 times; If an idea (abolishing of Slavery 1860) or the or some articulate individual (Lincoln) they could join with another party (Whig) and win an election. Lincoln himself was not even on 8-9 State Ballets, but managed to win (important) with a majority. Although Jefferson ran as a 'Republican' opposed to Democratic-Republican, the party of Adams/Washington, Adams he defeated, the birth of the Republican Party was with his election, formed a few years earlier. Todays issues are not quite as important as Slavery or the later election decider Womens Suffrage , but many folks are concerned or becoming concerned with our Federal Judicial System, which for 50-60 years has been intruding into State Issues. More from the District Appeal/Civil/Criminal Courts than the Supreme Court, never the less effects State Rights. Abortion, gun rights to this forums Gay Rights and really on to many other topics, Federal Courts are making demands on States intolerable to the electorate to most States in some, although different subject. FYI; Today, in the event a third party were to win the electoral vote of say California or some larger State with a high count 'winner take all', causing no one party getting a majority, it goes to the Federal House of Representatives to choose the President. A tie, is the same, but am trying to explain 3rd Party potential. iNow; Ross Perot and Mitt Romney are not the only two wealthy folks to finance their own campaigns, buts it's said no one has ever won the final election on their own money. I'd argue this, but another topic. Skeptic; The folks that run on 'sure to lose' tickets are trying to voice some opinion or agenda. Some have conventions, get some air time and a good deal of attention. Many on those tickets are actually R/D, in local politics or even at the Federal level, actively voicing those opinions on a daily basis. Pangloss; Are you suggestion the electorate should be ignorant of issues ("why"), or that something possible to correct this problem not be done. HBO's production 'John Adams' was one of their highest rated show and I think the largest selling CD in history, certainly for a Historical Documentary. Their is a thirst IMO, by young folks and others too busy to follow politics, for capsuled information or education.
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The one word you spelled correctly was 'RHEUMATIC FEVER', tells me you may actually have had that. What your thinking led to what are not only wild guesses but logically not connected. RF, is a Heart (murmur) condition, generally involving the heart being out of place. Symptoms are sore ankles, usually not allowing the person to walk. You are either a hypochondriac, seeking Internet pals, or have a serious problem, NEEDING MEDICAL ATTENTION... You are 15, assume in school and that school has a Nurse. Go to him/her and tell your story. Aside from being FREE, the Nurse can direct you other FREE service (based on your scenario). I'll add with your medical history, you have a doctor, who would see you in an instant on any request, payment being the furthest thing from his/her mind. I realize, I am being a little tough on you. Your story doesn't add up, but in the event I am wrong, you need medical attention, psychiatric help if I am hitting a nerve...GOOD LUCK.
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Interesting; I found Huckabee and Kucinich the most honest two of the total, not only during but validated after the primary, followed by Ms. Clinton whom I may have voted for. It is a trait not often displayed... iNow; Washington would have agreed....He worried, party affiliation would trump 'National Interest' and was he so correct....