We had this exact problem as a Problem of the Week in 8th grade math. Many people have repeated what I'm about to say, but I'll try to clarify. On your first guess, you have 3 choices: door 1, 2, or 3. You have an equal probability of picking each door, so the chances of getting the car on your first guess are 1/3. On your second guess, you are given the option to switch or stay. If you originally picked the car, you should stay. If you originally picked a goat, you should switch. Since there is a 1/3 chance that you originally picked the car and a 2/3 chance that you originally picked a goat, the probabiliy of winning the car is greater if you switch.