dedo

Charon said that my answer was dichotomous, when I believe I mentioned ~5 possible futures for current events (there are probably more). This whole thread is about "something is wrong" with this current administration, meaning psychopathology. You mentioned issues in Europe. So if someone wants to explore it somewhere else, that could be interesting. Personally think the pathology is an external influence on behavior (in social norms), more than primary mental illness. Something in society is moving people to follow their autocrat of choice. Whatever that is, it threatens our survival. Artists often hint at it first, Elvis Costello (Two Little Hitlers) about relationships but it hints at autocracy & conflict which intersects a political theory of preventing conflict called "Democratic Peace Theory" meaning democracies rarely fight one another. However, something in society can turn a democracy into an autocracy which is what this thread is about. (Intersection of art or other disciplines with science could be another interesting thread.)

Maybe you didn't read all my posts as I outlined several possibilities from "DT fulfills hopes of voters" to "Civil war" with other possible scenarios including agreeing with possible JFK'd scenario, since two attempts made already, false flag, huge losses for Rep in midterms from shifting voter sentiment, to SHTF that a false flag could trigger, to impeachment. Dichotomous thinking implies two choices which is often just one choice since the alternative to the affected person's belief is often intentionally unrealistic. I did not assign probabilities but if it makes you happy to have a wild guess, I would say impeachment from shocking voters, vs false flag are near the top of the list, but that is just a guess. Human behavior is not easy to predict. A post on Quora I saw reviewed multiple Soviet Union leaders from "prediction" to what actually happened & the record was almost perfect that the predictions were wrong. So in reality, I just don't know. If you want to explore the psychopathology of what is going on consider a new thread to deal with that. Don't know if there are any mental health professionals here but my input would be from significant sporadic study of "what's wrong", a long history of working with psychiatrists including 2k+ consults from them, 30-40k consults regarding external influences on behavior (drugs), & 3 months of training in inpatient & outpatient psychosis, professional practice & solving problems using an airline model of a wide net of opinions, including subordinates, with great success which is the opposite of dichotomous thinking. I have seen subordinates solve problems their supervisors missed & once they came up with a superior solution to the academics I polled to solve a problem resulting in scores of near misses becoming near zero, all from casting a wide net for solutions. So my belief system & practice is anything but dichotomous. You may have an agenda that I don't meet, & so search for or make up issues from your own attachment to your agenda. So if you want to explore psychopathology in a new thread, I may add something but prefer to hear others as my technique is not so much to push an agenda, but to mine for ideas like a prospector for gold as the best ideas often come from unexpected places. On any given day, anyone can be an Alan Turing, at least for a short period.

Exactly. I try to consciously look at situations like a camera with telephoto lenses needed sometimes to focus, but wide angle lenses to take in the "big picture" required just as often to combat tunnel vision. I also try to look at more than one field to see if similar problems have been solved elsewhere. I think that "widening the perspective" to both history and other fields may be part of the solution to the OP's original question & may be a vital path to improving scientific progress.

I am alarmed as well. Did not know about Poland & glad they turned away from far right. Clearly there is psychopathology that is more widespread than one country. Authoritarianism is rising just as in the early 20th C. That might be an interesting thread in politics or medicine categories to discuss what is the psychopathology, how it works, & possible solutions.

Yes, & I commended someone on another thread for coming up with an idea for organized resistance. It can take time for organized resistance to work as in civil rights or women's suffrage, so the sooner it begins, the better. Also, being alert for "sudden emergencies" is prudent as that is a known technique for autocrats to consolidate power. Putin is accused of doing that. Nevertheless, although my ideology is more conservative than liberal, I believe my assessment of risk is higher than even most liberals, not from ideology, but from research of the problem behind It, which may be from cumulative factors in social norms discussed more in other threads. Currently, I put the estimated risk of SHTF at up to 90% in the 21st C., most likely to occur before 2050. That is unfortunate, because similar systems have been solved, but only with intentional action & that discussion has not even begun. PS: I was also an "exchemist" as I majored in chemistry undergraduate thinking that it would be easy before being proven wrong by physical chemistry that was anything but easy.

Did not want to stray too far off the OP's original ? as some of the "evidence" was outlined in other posts. A brief summary of evidence that the Fermi paradox is a filter to protect the galaxy from aggression includes: 1. There is a vast difference in ages between star systems. On Earth, even a 20 y difference in technology can produce a major military advantage. If alien intelligent life followed Earth evolution, then you would expect either endless war (Star Wars) or tyranny but there is no evidence for that. If aliens have visited, at least so far they are not aggressive. 2. There is evidence of a cumulative process behind group violence. The evidence is called the power law data discovered by Lewis Richardson in 1949, unfortunately mostly ignored in international relations literature & not even included in most textbooks solely devoted to theories about the "cause of war" which is unknown. Power law means there is a relationship between frequency & intensity for war, such that wars are small & frequent or rare and huge. Forest fires follow the same distribution as do earthquakes. So do other models, but these types of systems are often modeled with a computer sandpile model. Sand pours onto a sandpile and avalanches (wars) are measured that follow a power law. This implies that there may be an input process. If you look at the last two periods of global war, lumping WWI / WWII into one period of intense conflict, then the interval between "avalanches", onset to onset is 109 years with an intensity increase of about a factor of 20. If the pattern repeats, then the rough estimation of onset for WWIII is 2023 with an estimated casualty level of about 2 billion. If you model "end to beginning", or 1815 to 1914, then that puts onset for WWIII at 2044. Of course if the onset is later, intensity should be worse. Either way, it puts onset for WWIII in the 21st Century, likely sometime before 2050 meaning the "nuclear age". 3. We know FTL technology (if it exists) is much more difficult than nuclear technology. Thus, since nature often has "elegant design", it is logical that there may be a filter to protect the galaxy from aggression. Hope this is not too much detail & evidence is not proof, but it is evidence. Would prefer to be wrong & see evidence to the contrary that so far has eluded me. Also, some people just can't deal with it from denial. I have seen people used to dealing with life & death emergencies become agitated if conversation ventures in that direction, so I try to be sensitive to that as not everyone wants to discuss the "fate of the world" etc.

Since on another thread I pointed out that this admin. may have already met 2 of the 3 criteria for "dangerous leader disorder" in less than a month in office I don't think I am "blissfully unaware". However, I do always try to avoid dichotomous (black & white) thinking that can be seen in groups under pressure that some call "group think". If you watched the movie about the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy was pressured to attack Cuba by hawks who saw that as the "only alternative". Kennedy resisted & found another way. In contrast, in the run up to the 2nd Gulf War, the same dichotomous rhetoric was noted (by me) in US officials who said things like "attacking Iraq is better than doing nothing", as if those were their only choices. Thus, I always look for more possibilities without discounting evidence (not proof) of the worst possible scenario that should be prepared for. The defenses in the US currently is more than the judiciary. The Congress is heavily influenced by public opinion & the Rep could get massacred in the midterms & even the perception of that can swing the Congress if they sense losses on the way. Scotus also does not always rubber stamp DT & will also respond to changes in public opinion or even to their own sense of morality. There may be other safeguards. Hopefully, we won't be heading for the scenario acted out in last year's movie "Civil War", but even then the tyrant lost in the end. Of course, Hollywood needs a positive emotional outcome to sell movies.

All of this could be true, & the US could be on the brink of fascism -- or not. There are many possible futures at any moment in time. Someone else noted the possibility of "JFK'd". This is a possibility & could even be a false flag if someone wanted to trick the US into attacking another country that the event could be pinned on. Or DT could do what many of his voters hoped & voted for, & just clean up waste, solve problems, & eliminate perceived Dem extremism. Unfortunately, human nature often replaces unpopular policies with even worse. The Nazis replaced the Weimar. In support of the "hoped for" category is the observation that sometimes DT backs off in response to feedback. This is a good sign & points to the possibility of reversibility. For example, the airlines developed training for controlling authoritarian captains to prevent accidents & the training worked. This suggests that authoritarianism could be reversible. If not, and popularity falls like a rock, there is a chance of impeachment. So there are many possible futures & all we can do is make educated guesses & try to contribute something positive if the opportunity arises.

I would say that science is progressing, but not in a straight line and likely not in the best way forward. This means that critical areas of science may be getting neglected because other areas are easier to generate $. A neglected area may be the soft science of human behavior. Personally, I believe the answer to the Fermi paradox is that a lot of intelligent life destroys itself before advancing to FTL because technology advances faster than the science of understanding and preventing group violence. This likely occurs in the nuclear age and protects the galaxy from aggressive cultures. Defense companies make money selling weapons, not by selling harmony. So, because we race ahead with technology with little comparative effort to understand and prevent aggression, this flaw in human pursuit of science places humanity at high risk of getting "filtered".

Saw a recipe on line that emphasized putting the eggs in already boiling water is key to ez peeling. Found this works although still add baking soda to the water that may not be needed. Found that gently lowering eggs into water with a spoon keeps them from cracking instead of just dropping the egg. Cool the eggs with tap water when they reach your desired level of "doneness", unless you want to eat a couple hot, right after cooking. Since adopting this method, eggs peel fine.

A practical example that may apply about how both the "object" and the "interaction" matter could be organizational science from the safety literature. Many organizations only focus on qualifications of "the object" and they vet people as best they can, but give little regard to the "interaction". However, the safety literature has shown that improving the "interaction" is vital to reduce error and to make the "interaction" work, both training and infrastructure of the interaction is helpful. High hazard systems like commercial aviation developed specific infrastructure and training to improve the "interaction" as a response to near misses and plane crashes especially an event that occurred in the late 1970's where a veteran captain flew his airliner into the ground when a flight engineer on the plane who knew how to save the plane could not speak up enough even to save his own life. Then the airlines trained crew to speak up and officers to listen with training called "CRM" or "Crew Resource Management". The airlines also have multiple reporting systems to enable "interaction". Personally not a pilot, but I asked the question on an airline forum which of the feedback loops in commercial aviation was the most important & the pilot responded "CRM". So your philosophy has merit in that it can encourage focus on both the object, and the interaction, as important in producing favorable outcomes.

Not sure what your question is. If it is: "Is there evidence that a major political storm is coming?" I would say yes, there are multiple lines of evidence that a storm is coming, including what is going on in the US, and other countries. What you noted in DODGE amounts to political extremism and suppression of dissent which is interesting coming from someone who tried to trumpet "freedom of speech" as his rational for making Twitter into a right wing platform that gave free reign to those that support genocide. To quote myself: "The infected are capable of any moral abomination, accusing others of what the infected does, lying about it every step of the way." There is evidence of an infection in social norms, as evidenced by statistical data that shows that wars follow the same statistical distribution as forest fires. Thus, "brush" builds up in social norms until, boom, the world burns -- unless the "infection" is treated. I believe that extreme tribalism & a form of bullying or obsession with oppression of those perceived as vulnerable are the hallmarks, which explains in part going after USAID first. There is the diagnosis given to Hitler of "DLD" or "dangerous leader disorder" marked by: suppression of dissent, grandiosity, and extreme violence (internal or external). It has been noted on another thread that this administration has met 2 of those. Putin has met all three. There is the Doomsday Clock, set at the closest setting to MN in history backed by an organization with their own journal and Nobel Laureates if that means anything. There are nuclear threats pouring out of Russia although they have toned it down recently. If you want to stray away from evidence that can be considered "science" to pseudoscience, then there is a new book about Nostradamus & Trump recently released that I only mention as it seems to suggest the Senate eventually removes him which may comfort someone a little. However, even if a prophecy was true, which most here would deride, prophecies only show "possible futures" that could be changed with effort or self awareness. I read somewhere that Hitler read about himself in Nostradamus but it did not change him unfortunately. So, in response to what I think is your question, yes there is evidence of a storm brewing. We can hope that the institutions of the US will hold, and if there is a positive outcome, then whatever occurs will stimulate high level multidisciplinary problem solving to address the cause, before it is too late.

Only had a year of college physics, but my understanding is that matter has mass which bends space time from two effects, the mass of the matter also called gravity, and the spin of the matter called frame dragging.

This is a good idea. Healthy systems change from the bottom up including democracy (that still functions), civil rights, suffragettes, & high hazard industry. Unresisted, autocratic trending actors generally get worse. So starting early is a good idea to both mitigate extreme behavior, and to get the institutions prepared to act if looks like the executive branch becomes out of control

Yes, there was an initial claim that seemed to be alarming. However, simply saying "God saved me" is not a problem as it is reasonable to say any good thing comes from God. But when it crosses into "God saved me so I can do X, Y, Z, then I believe that qualifies for the DLD diagnosis. So what was said is right on the line & it is important to watch for more of that kind of rhetoric. Would also include for the final tier (internal or external violence), "preparation for internal violence", meaning forming a new secret police or gestapo. If that begins, or is hinted at, then those tasked with protecting the country should take notice.