I've been thinking about Nick Bostrom's simulation argument, which basically argues that we are living inside a computer simulated universe created by our descendants. I began to wonder just how plausible this argument is, and after thinking about it for a I came up with the following idea:
Assuming the first two possibilities that Bostrom proposes, which are 1) that we go extinct before becoming technologically capable of creating simulated universes and 2) That we do become capable of creating simulated universes but do not create any, are incorrect, Bostrom says that we are almost guaranteed to be living in a simulated universe inside a supercomputer, because the number of simulated universes would far outnumber the single real universe.
Bostrom says it is likely that there are simulated universes inside simulated universes, ad infinitium. Now, I was thinking about this, and assuming there are simulated universes inside simulated universes, always creating new simulated universes, wouldn't statistics say that our universe would most likely be created when the amount of simulated universes is at it's highest? And wouldn't the moment when the amount of simulated universes be highest right before the end of the one real universe? And if the real universe ended, wouldnt it cause the simulated universes to end as well? So therefore, if our simulated universe has the highest likelyhood of being created just before the end of the real universe, wouldn't that mean that if our universe was a simulation, statistically, it would have most likely ended already?
So doesn't that mean that it is highly unlikely that we are living in a simulated universe instead of a real one?
I've only been thinking about this theory for a short while, so I'm assuming I must have missed something somewhere, and I might be wrong. So am I?
Also sorry for any typos or anything, I'm on a phone and it's hard to proof read.
