Moontanman

Not what I meant, the rarity of phosphorus in the universe is what I was referring to. We have an unusually high amount of phosphorus in our neck of the space woods.

The idea of Clark Tech, FTL is chief among them, suggests that we already know enough about how the universe works to be able to limit what aliens can do. I tend to agree with this, the idea of magical tech and or super beings doesn't sit well with me of course not more than a century or so ago we thought a great many things were impossible or simply unknown to us. Known unknowns and unknown unknowns, sometimes referred to as black swan events. Looking outside the box shouldn't mean we know enough to flatly know where the box begins and ends or even if there is a box. I'm not sure that is justified, sometimes serendipity plays a big part in science. I don't think anyone was expecting photographic plates to result in the finding of radioactivity. There are ?? stars within 100 light years of Earth, with a google search I seem to be getting a wide array of answers from 76 to 5900, I'm not sure which is accurate. You are assuming a Star Trek type pattern of exploring/colonising the galaxy. A more rational method would be either sending out intelligent machines to do the job or sending out colonizers who get to a new star system, colonise with artificial habitats and then send out their own colonizers to new star systems. Habitable planets are not required and maybe even ignored completely except for a few specialists looking to study life and or aliens. It might take several million years but that is a blink of the eye in deep time. Good question but it's also possible that to them our weapons are no more dangerous than thrown rocks to one of our own weapons systems.

My point exactly, we need to step up our game on detecting small faint IR targets. Are any of them really meant to detect tiny faint objects inside our solar system? Not a new direction for me, this is something I've been suggesting for many years off and on. Are you assuming that Aliens would need to detect "us" to be here? A galaxy wide civilization (not really possible IMHO) might just be slowly colonising the galaxy via artificial space habitats. This could be done in a few million years, planets in general of inhabited planets specifically might be ignored except for individuals or groups having an interest in rising primitives. The Earth a been detectable for billions of years via spectrographic studies of our atmosphere via telescopes. Clark Tech.

Again I would suggest checking out these papers/reports from 1968 very suggestive of something highly unusual happening at Minot Air Force Base in 1968. It has to start someplace if it's going to start at all. All we can know is that under the laws of physics we know an object that uses energy has to give off waste heat. A spacecraft powered by nuclear energy would be difficult to really hide due to it giving off waste heat as part of it's operation of homeostasis if not direct propulsion. I am sure it might give off other sources of energy such as neutrinos but I don't think we have the capability to detect those from a distance and at such low levels as even controlled fusion might release them. I see no reason why infrared should be impossible, difficult possibly but not impossible.

Yeah, it would be more difficult that you might think, most of our infrared telescopes are looking for planetary sized bodies not tiny low level sources. I'm sure there are other ways, this one is just my own dog and pony show. Yes but the ability to actually pinpoint a source varies greatly. A planet is much easier to see than a tiny object in terms of raw power output. Just like seeing Jupiter is easier than seeing one of Jupiter's tiny moons in visible light.

I spent most of the night trying to find out where I got the debunking and how or why i inserted it into the Science Channel video. I couldn't find it, I am truly sorry, but I stand behind the rest of what I posted in this thread including the Minot Base papers about the UFO seen from a 52 bomber and tracked on radar. I also stand behind my contention that we will not credible evidence by passively waiting. I am assuming that a civilization capable of star travel will be beyond us technologically a similar amount as we are beyond a stone age culture isolated on a island. We are a couple thousand years beyond the island culture and just as isolated from the greater galaxy as the islanders are from us. A galaxy spanning culture would be by necessity as much as a million years beyond us and have motivations and capabilities we can not conceive of any more than the islanders can conceive of our motivations and or capabilities. Their knowledge of us is dictated almost completely by us as our knowledge of an advanced civilization would be dictated by them.

I have to admit I didn't know what the video showed, I had seen the full episode about a year ago and I swear I thought it showed the idea of the object being sensationalized and then debunked. This is a common theme for these videos NASA's Unexplained Videos. Either I am simply misremembering or they intentionally edited this to advertise their channel and try and get people to buy the entire episode. I am sorry, I do not know what to say, I distinctly remember the build up and then the admission of how it was all hype and they explained in some detail why it was hype but this short video only shows the build up. I am genuinely at a loss, I watched parts of this video and even remember the way they slowly debunked the entire thing going into great detail about the rotation rates not being as fast as claimed and how the communications disruption was due to a software glitch and how this had resulted in the entire alien claims. I hope I am just remembering the entire video and mistakenly inserted bit of the whole video into this one accidentally from memory... either that or I have slipped a cog. I am embarrassed, I do not blame you guys for doubting my credibility, hell I doubt my credibility, I see no way forward on this at this time.

The phosphorus problem has been suggested as a resolution to the Fermi Paradox.

I saw a car yesterday here in my home state of NC covered by various right wing stickers verifying the the subhuman intelligence of the driver and most prevalent was "Desantis 2024" stickers... it was a small compact car and I drive a large 4X4... deliver me from temptation o lord.

How do we know this to be the case? I will not continue to defend that which i wasn't defending to begin with, the earth is held together mainly by gravity, a small body like arawn is not held together by it's gravity alone any more than a glacier is held together by its own gravity. I really wish you would actually read what I am posting instead of reading what you want to see into my posts. Have you realized i never suggest the Arawan story was true but that it resembled what we might expect to find if aliens were currently present in our solar system? The reason so many tried to suggest it was alien is the assumed oddness of it but it wasn't enough to make that assertion. Only hype by people who had an agenda made those claims. I said this, several times now, please adjust your jets to the reality of the situation. And yet we have many tens of thousands of sightings/reports, many hundreds if not thousands at least are completely inexplicable. If you go by standards released by the US Air force this number should be in the 10% range, you would have to extrapolate from the numbers of sightings investigated just by the US gov and apply those percentages to the world wide reports. The raw numbers are impressive, I doubt the true number of unknown unknowns is that high but it still has to be significant. Even one real alien sighting is world changing. I stand by my assertion that just passively collecting data will never result in sufficient evidence to conclude anything. The concept is much further outside our experience/ability for us to ever obtain the indisputable evidence required to accept the idea unless the evidence is granted to us by the "aliens" themselves if we manage to step up our own collection game and obtain evidence outside the current possible parameters of data collection being employed. ie Just waiting for the evidence to come to us will not work.

You are assuming the "islanders" have the capability to investigate their anomalies in some reasonable manner. Remember the outside "world" is far ahead of the islanders nad in total control of what the islanders can investegate, barring some sort of accident the islanders never get to see anything the world doesn't want them to see. I do not accept these stories uncritically, I try to approach them without prejudgment, that means not assuming they are false from the beginning and the only thing left is to show they are false. Each one has no connection to the veracity of the next. Each one by definition stands alone, at least at first blush this is the only honest way to investigate honestly. After investigation the stories can be linked together if there is sufficient reason to do so but not before. You cannot do a fair assessment if you assume they are false to begin with. My mindset is to approach was sighting/report as though it is the only one I ever saw or heard of, of course I cannot do this completely but if I do not try then bias slips into the investigation from the last report. If you were collecting data from a crime you wouldn't let data from other crimes influence your current data set. To do so would contaminate the crime scene. Once you have that data you can begin to compare aspects of the crime to see if there are connections but there not being connections cannot be used to show there was no crime. BTW, compared to aliens who can weld technologies allowing them to travel in some manner between the stars we are primitives. We might have wooden canoes but the others have boats made of fiberglass composites using technologies we cannot even fathom like internal combustion engines and GPS navigation... we have to look at this from the standpoint of being primitives. Expecting an advanced technology to simply fall into our laps from the sky is unreasonable even if it is being paraded just beyond our reach. We will never passively obtain evidence of such technology we must do our best to obtain it by the most advanced means we have available... at the very least we must be able to study what little is revealed to us even if it is nothing but scraps being presented by accident. We must do our best to avoid this trap but we must also avoid the trap of it can't be extraterrestrial as well. I don't know if we really can say that with any real confidence, even assuming no "Clark Tech" it would only take a few million years or so for an alien civilization to pretty much explore the entire galaxy

I think we are in the situation of a large island of primitives, we are isolated from the rest of the world and only see glimpses of the outside world. We occasionally see objects over head flying trailing clouds smoke. The tribal elders say these are just illusions, or some might say they are angels, gods or even dragons but there is no way to really know. We occasionally see boats way offshore on the horizon, we can see them as boats because we have boats that float and can conceive of such things but they are so far away we cannot see them clearly and there is a lot of debate about who or what they represent but no clear cut way to really know. These "boats" are too fast and too far away for us to catch them. Very rarely we see things flying in the dark that light up the sky and the ground and even land. The people shoot arrows at them and throw spears but nothing comes of it. They make a huge amount of noise and some even claim that there are men on board. A few say that they have been abducted and brought back after being examined by these flying things but most people do not have this experience and discount it completely even though many clear pictures have been drawn by the people involved and some of the pictures are similar. The tribal leaders say that these things cannot be real because there is no physical evidence of any of them, only people seeing things in the sky or in the distance. Sometimes people who insist they are real are ostracised from the tribe. But life goes on and the things people claim to have seen seldom if ever make any real difference in the lives of the island people so no one thinks the sightings should be investigated because they cannot be important to the lives of the people.

So I guess that scientific papers written by real well known and well accredited scientists are no better than photos and the other link to a large file of info about a military sightings with radar data and isn't even enough to be looked at. I think some of you get it, others are just stuck in the debunk at all costs phase, and some just can't help thinking it's all silly to begin with. The real point of this is that no amount of evidence is ever going to be good enough, no evidence is without doubt no perfect photo, sighting, encounter will ever happen. So do we just ignore this phenomena, no real evidence exists, no research can be done, no reason to step up looking for the improbable? Most everyone is so quick with the need to debunk they forget that the idea of evidence is not black and white, it is very seldom absolute, and there is no need to make sure all the evidence is false anymore than someone who is a believer needs to make sure all evidence points to something extraordinary. We are talking about evidence, in a court of law it would be easy to generate a probability of truth but this is science. I know science has a higher standard of evidence but this is not math, no absolutes here, no proofs will be forthcoming. All we have to work with is data collected by laymen, some in good conscience some not, we have definite data, radar returns, photos, physical traces but we also have eyewitnesses, interactions with aircraft, civilian and military. Some data is better than others to be sure but none perfect, all we have is what we have, even in science the quality of data varies and the surety of the results vary. What is the sigma value before science considers something to be probably true? Is anything ever proven absolutely? Back away from the need to be right and try to see what is most likely, did the person lie? How likely is it that they lied? Are they known for deception? Do they have any reason to have hoaxed the data? It all boils down to a few possibilities, was something seen or did the person lie? Were they mistaken about what they saw? Were they delusional about what they saw? Even radar and other instruments results can be interpreted. It was asked where do we go from here, I've given it some thought, either we continue to debate the evidence we have collected by accident from flawed observers, or we step up our game and try and collect data on our terms, with sophisticated instruments, trained observers collecting the data from our instruments. Or we just conclude it's impossible to collect meaningful data and dismiss the entire thing as silly and go on ignoring the tens of thousands of reports that have come in over the years and still come in daily from people like the homeless guy down the street, to just regular people, to police, to military personal, pilots, and even scientists. What do we do, try to beat each other down until we agree or bleed out, or do we act like real reasonable humans and at least try to figure out why our fellow men continue to report these anomalous "things" on such a large scale? We may never find aliens but we might find something else important about how the human mind works when it is faced with something unknown.. or it might just be bullshit. Until we really try we'll never even have a chance to actually know. Personally I've love to see the data we have, all of it, even what the military has and hides, subjected to statistical analysis, stop treating each and every incident as though it is some sort of unique situation and see if there are similarities and correlations and that can be studied, charted, graphed. I think such an analysis just might reveal some interesting possibilities. I've read reports from all over the world, no doubt hundreds if not thousands over the years, some of them are so outrageous that even if not true you have to salute the persons who made them up. This is not a USA phenomena, it's not a western world problem, it's not something confined to advanced societies, it's not even confined to our planet but it does seem to be confined to human beings, possibly we should start by being human beings.

Loeb has more than one article about Omuamua. https://avi-loeb.medium.com/is-oumuamua-a-hydrogen-water-iceberg-a5d815f61c86

Ok, Arawn is large part of 1% of the asteroids in size, it's rotation was suggested by the article/video I posted to be at the limit of being able to hold together for an asteroid it's size made of rock and ice. I have to admit I was going only on the video for this information. I wasn't rating my examples from best to worst, I wasn't just accepting the video's information but I do admit that the idea of NASA and the science channel being responsible for this video, it was part of the NASA mysteries series and included NASA scientists and officials. Most of the time these particular set of videos are quite accurate if somewhat disappointing usually being a bit of sensationalist headlines with much less sensational bottom lines. It was my mistake to not be more credulous and my fault that I wasn't more forthcoming with the reason for using this video, it was easier than looking up papers and I really didn't think anyone would mistake this for an actual spacecraft since the end of the video states it wasn't. It was just my attempt to show the aspects of an alien spacecraft/base/colony if we were to see one by accident. I honestly wasn't trying to convince anyone this was an alien artifact, I saw through it easily, there wasn't even close to enough evidence shown to suggest this was an alien spacecraft. I think the closest approach was 66 million miles ( I could be wrong) and the most that could be said, IMHO, is that this asteroid might be worthy of another look if a spacecraft was going it's way in the future or if more info was obtained... like if it was shown to be warmer than it should be this distance from the sun. No, I do not see what I want, there is no reason to think the "drive" of an alien probe would spread out in a fan shape like a helicopter might. In fact other sightings have been claimed to have the opposite effect seeming to attract the ground in some manner. The cause of the effect is more important than the way the effect manifests itself. As for the size, keep in mind this is the early to mid 1960s, no drones as we know them today were in existence. The size might indicate it was a drone of some sort instead of a manned craft I know that this photo has been debated ad nauseum over the years with both sides not being able to really conclusively show it is or is not what is seems to be. The only real thing we can say is the man who took it was considered to be of good character and to suggest he hoaxed it is inflammatory in the face of no reason to suspect him of such an act. The photo is what he took, if it was a hoax in someway there is no reason to suggest he was part of it and more than one photo was taken. Now... does it prove an alien spacecraft/drone passed with a few yards of this man? No it does not, it does indicate something unknown happened and that unknown was real enough to be photographed. It bears the stigma of all photographs, there is no way to know what it was, only that it was. This thread has become a place to post links to sightings, mostly my fault I am sure, it wasn't intended to be that, only a discussion of what is currently being investigated by well established scientists and whether what is being done is sufficient. I would really like the groups thoughts on this sighting, quite a bit of data is available and described in this link. https://minotb52ufo.com/introduction.php

No, I was asking about the photo that Mrmack was referring to. This one, which I do not see any grass or weeds or a barrel, i see dust stirred up directly under the object. And I do not see why its size would matter.

The significance of the rotation depends on the size of the object. Those pictures were not taken with modern phones. I am curious, what does the size of the object have to do with anything? I guess this one has dropped through the cracks, anyone care to comment on this sighting? https://minotb52ufo.com/introduction.php

I wasn't making a prediction, I was just trying to show how a rotating base or colony might look. In the video they go into detail about how is is rotating too fast to stay together for it's size https://inf.news/en/science/61f2e43c267cae2d5a6057e1979788c7.html I understand that, I wasn't trying to prove anything other than an object rotating faster than expected would be something to look into. See the link above and again I wasn't actually suggesting this was a sapce ship just that it has properties that would be expected for a technological object rotating to produce artificial gravity inside. Obviously so, that is why I didn't suggest this was an alien spacecraft.

Your opinion on the photo, my fav, is not shared by everyone and those who disagree have made a pretty good case for it being real and not a hoax. This is one of the problems with photos, debunkers never accept them as anything but false and believers always accept almost anything. Both side ignore the other when in fact the doubt is often cast in both directions. The photo I said was one of my favs is such a photo, both sides have good arguments but not conclusive. Do you have a link to the McMinnville photos being thoroughly debunked? How about the first pic from Scotland I think it was.

No, real scientists are debating on what the evidence points to, this is not some layman bigfoot researcher trying to sow seeds of doubt. Possibly this one will provide better evidence for something extraordinary? https://minotb52ufo.com/introduction.php

There is still a debate going on about Oumuamua and the likelihood it is natural vs artificial https://avi-loeb.medium.com/is-oumuamua-a-hydrogen-water-iceberg-a5d815f61c86

I think this might be a conspiracy with a little more meat than most.

No, SETI only does radio telescope surveys of the sky looking for signals from ET Civilizations around other stars. .