Lottery Calculating Trouble

[Raider5678]

Hey, I know I said I'd be gone but I need help.

 

How serious can the charges be if I may have made a method and screwed the state lottery over for a few grand? Like seriously, do I need to get a lawyer and is that actually a legal charge?

I can't find anything that says I can't do it and I get in legal trouble for it, so what law would I have broken in doing so?

I didn't win millions or anything, it's pretty small in comparison to the money they make. Didn't even think they'd notice.

Any advice on this? I'm assuming at least one person here had to have done this before, I mean this place is filled with geniuses. What should I do?

 

Can I somehow plea the case I'm one really lucky guy? And if I have to go before a jury, they won't convict me right?

Can I go to jail??

 

I've never been in any legal trouble at all.

Please help. Or advise. Something please.

Edited April 6, 2017 by Raider5678

[Strange]

Assuming your method involves choosing numbers, buying tickets and winning more than you spend (rather than fraud, bribery, hacking into their computers, or something), I don't see how it could be a problem. Do the rules say "if you find a flaw in the system you must notify us"?

 

If your method works, then it can only be because of a flaw in their system. In which case you should (a) keep quiet about it and (b) use it occasionally and buy the tickets from different places - I'm sure they will be monitoring the patterns of wins to identify possible fraud and ... flaws in the system.

But why is this under "Politics"?

[Prometheus]

What kind of lottery system is it?

 

In terms of getting in trouble, if you have found an optimal strategy that maximises your chances of a prize then perhaps it is something like counting cards in blackjack where you have broken no laws/rules but they can stop you from playing in the future?

[Raider5678]

1.Assuming your method involves choosing numbers, buying tickets and winning more than you spend (rather than fraud, bribery, hacking into their computers, or something), I don't see how it could be a problem. Do the rules say "if you find a flaw in the system you must notify us"?

 

2.If your method works, then it can only be because of a flaw in their system. In which case you should (a) keep quiet about it and (b) use it occasionally and buy the tickets from different places - I'm sure they will be monitoring the patterns of wins to identify possible fraud and ... flaws in the system.

3.But why is this under "Politics"?

1. Yes, it's simply a method. For example, in the last 93 numbers that have been picked, a entire collection of numbers ending in "5" are: 45-15-15-55-05-55-15-05

Which if it was random, wouldn't be the clustered. AND since ever number set is like that, it's not just a random chance with one of them.

And I don't see how there would be a problem either. Which is why i'm asking what the problem is.

 

2. Fourteen year old boy with the option to turn $25 to $250 twice a day. How likely do you think it is that I'd have the wisdom to do it "occasionally" and to buy it at different places?

Wish I did though.

I followed A. Until now. But it was already a little late.

 

3. Is there a legal sub thread?

What kind of lottery system is it?

 

In terms of getting in trouble, if you have found an optimal strategy that maximises your chances of a prize then perhaps it is something like counting cards in blackjack where you have broken no laws/rules but they can stop you from playing in the future?

PA lottery pick 2.

Pay $1 for a ticket and win $50.

99 different choices.

1/4 chance of winning if you buy 25 tickets.

Some basic calculations, get the chance that you win up to 95%, narrowing it so you buy 25 tickets spread over 5 numbers.

 

 

It might be.

I'm hoping.

 

So neither think I would need a lawyer right?

Edited April 6, 2017 by Raider5678

[Lord Antares]

No, you don't need a lawyer. I don't even see how you would think you do.

 

First of all, the fault is theirs if there is a flaw in their system. Secondly, and more importantly, how on earth would they know it wasn't just luck?

 

You say:

 

 

Can I somehow plea the case I'm one really lucky guy?

 

 

This was a small lottery with a possible win of thousands. It's not even really lucky.

Do the people who win ~200 million on the eurojackpot need to plea the case that they are just lucky? Of course they don't, it's considered to be the default case. How on earth would they even prove that it wasn't just luck?

 

Don't worry and enjoy your money. It's 100% safe.

[Raider5678]

No, you don't need a lawyer. I don't even see how you would think you do.

 

First of all, the fault is theirs if there is a flaw in their system. Secondly, and more importantly, how on earth would they know it wasn't just luck?

 

You say:

 

 

This was a small lottery with a possible win of thousands. It's not even really lucky.

Do the people who win ~200 million on the eurojackpot need to plea the case that they are just lucky? Of course they don't, it's considered to be the default case. How on earth would they even prove that it wasn't just luck?

 

Don't worry and enjoy your money. It's 100% safe.

Well, more like winning a whole ton of little $50 lotteries.

About 120 of them.

[Lord Antares]

Aha, ok. So they might be convinced that you are using a system, but this is still not illegal. They cannot do anything legal against you as you are doing nothing against the rules.

 

Furthermore, if they are having a constant deviaton from randomness, it suggests that THEY are cheating for some reason or another, which is another reason why they can't do anything against you.

I think it's unlikely (like lottery odds unlikely ) that they wouldn't spot such an obvious flaw in their system, which leads me to think it's intentional.

[Raider5678]

Aha, ok. So they might be convinced that you are using a system, but this is still not illegal. They cannot do anything legal against you as you are doing nothing against the rules.

 

Furthermore, if they are having a constant deviaton from randomness, it suggests that THEY are cheating for some reason or another, which is another reason why they can't do anything against you.

I think it's unlikely (like lottery odds unlikely ) that they wouldn't spot such an obvious flaw in their system, which leads me to think it's intentional.

I assumed it off of a pattern that they are choosing the lottery numbers based off of what would make them have to pay out the least amount of money.

Which is why numbers like 22,33,44,55,66,77,88,99,00 show up a lot. People are less likely to choose double numbers.

At least that's one portion of my method.

 

But you guys are totally sure they can't actually do anything against me?

[Lord Antares]

Yes.

[Raider5678]

Yes.

I hope you're right.

[Lord Antares]

There is no hoping, there is a 100% chance that I'm right.

 

You have done something legal. Therefore, they cannot sue you, right?

Since lotteries are supposed to be completely random, a system is impossible. Therefore, anyone who wins is attributed to have done so by pure luck. If they are deviating from randomness by introducing patterns, it's their own fault. The worst thing they can do is remove their pattern and start being sensible by making their numbers random.

[Strange]

So neither think I would need a lawyer right?

 

 

No. But a textbook on probability theory might be a good investment!

If you have found a flaw in the system that you can exploit, the worst they can do is spot it and fix it.

[Raider5678]

There is no hoping, there is a 100% chance that I'm right.

 

You have done something legal. Therefore, they cannot sue you, right?

Since lotteries are supposed to be completely random, a system is impossible. Therefore, anyone who wins is attributed to have done so by pure luck. If they are deviating from randomness by introducing patterns, it's their own fault. The worst thing they can do is remove their pattern and start being sensible by making their numbers random.

Even if it was completely random, I can still find the most probable right?

If 99 hasn't been picked for the last 3000 times, it has a large chance of being picked then 1 if it had been picked 150 times in a row before that.

Extreme examples, but the same concept right?

Or am I wrong?

 

 

No. But a textbook on probability theory might be a good investment!

Why so?

[Strange]

Why so?

 

 

Because:

 

 

Even if it was completely random, I can still find the most probable right?

If 99 hasn't been picked for the last 3000 times, it has a large chance of being picked then 1 if it had been picked 150 times in a row before that.

 

 

 

 

 

Or am I wrong?

 

Yes.

[Raider5678]

 

 

Because:

 

 

 

 

 

Yes.

Fair enough.

[Strange]

For example, imagine you roll 10 sixes in a row (with fair dice).

What is the probability of the next roll being a six?

[Prometheus]

Even if it was completely random, I can still find the most probable right?

If 99 hasn't been picked for the last 3000 times, it has a large chance of being picked then 1 if it had been picked 150 times in a row before that.

Extreme examples, but the same concept right?

Or am I wrong?

Why so?

 

Be careful. This sounds very much like the gamblers fallacy. I'm not sure of the exact set-up of this lottery but if it's anything like European ones then the outcomes of previous lotteries have no influence on the next lottery. If 99 hasn't been picked the last 3000 lotteries, it has the same probability of being drawn in the next lottery as if it had just been picked last lottery. Unless this lottery has some weird dependence set-up.

 

I've seen methods to maximise winnings from lotteries based on empirical data of peoples' number selection habits (you then avoid picking similar numbers to the majority so you don't have to share the prize with as many people - but you're chance of actually winning at all is not influenced by this).

[Raider5678]

For example, imagine you roll 10 sixes in a row (with fair dice).

What is the probability of the next roll being a six?

Oh. 1/ 6.

Got it.

What's the chances or rolling a 6 11 times in a row?

1/362,797,056

And if the order of the numbers picked doesn't matter, then for numbers 1-5 you have a

1/60,466,176

So I'd still not go with 6.

[Lord Antares]

Even if it was completely random, I can still find the most probable right?

If 99 hasn't been picked for the last 3000 times, it has a large chance of being picked then 1 if it had been picked 150 times in a row before that.

Extreme examples, but the same concept right?

Or am I wrong?

 

 

Yes, you are wrong.

 

If some numbers consistently get picked or avoided leading to a very disproportionately low probability, their numbers are most likely not random, which is a flaw.

 

In a fair (i.e. random) game, this does not make sense.

If you flip heads 4000 times in a row with a coin, it still does not make more sense to bet on heads than tails, provided that the flip is not being manipulated.

Your conclusion might have been lucky because they are being biased with their numbers, but it this were actual mathematics, you wouldn't be right one bit.

[Raider5678]

 

Yes, you are wrong.

 

If some numbers consistently get picked or avoided leading to a very disproportionately low probability, their numbers are most likely not random, which is a flaw.

 

In a fair (i.e. random) game, this does not make sense.

If you flip heads 4000 times in a row with a coin, it still does not make more sense to bet on heads than tails, provided that the flip is not being manipulated.

Your conclusion might have been lucky because they are being biased with their numbers, but it this were actual mathematics, you wouldn't be right one bit.

Well mine is more on percentages.

If such and such number hasn't been picked for N amount of draws, it's probability to be picked is P.

For example, numbers in the 40s have a 21% chance to be picked 4 draws after the last 4 has been picked. If it isn't picked then, then the probability goes down to 6% chance to be picked. But once you get 11 draws after a 40s number has been picked, the chances of a 40s number being picked is 85%.

The whole system is based off of stuff like this, and it works.

So the lottery isn't random.

[Lord Antares]

No, probability doesn't work that way.

It only works if their system is biased. It appears that it is. Therefore, your system can be applied.

 

But I want you to understand (maybe you do) that this doesn't apply to mathematical probability or any kind of unbiased system. It doesn't work for actual, legitimate big lotteries either.

[Raider5678]

No, probability doesn't work that way.

It only works if their system is biased. It appears that it is. Therefore, your system can be applied.

 

But I want you to understand (maybe you do) that this doesn't apply to mathematical probability or any kind of unbiased system. It doesn't work for actual, legitimate big lotteries either.

Yeah, I understand.

 

In mathematics, the probabilities are never dependent upon the previous draw unless the previous draw reduces the number of possible outcomes.

Edited April 6, 2017 by Raider5678

[Lord Antares]

Yes, IF the draws are unbiased.

That's why we are saying that by them having (what appear to be) biased draws, they are creating a possible system of prediciton. You should be patted on the back for realizing how to abuse this system, rather than being scolded.

 

The fault is theirs, so you may abuse the system until they realize something is wrong with it.

 

Also, I think you are lucky. Not because you are lucking out with the draws, but because there is such a flawed lottery in your viccinity

[Raider5678]

Yes, IF the draws are unbiased.

That's why we are saying that by them having (what appear to be) biased draws, they are creating a possible system of prediciton. You should be patted on the back for realizing how to abuse this system, rather than being scolded.

 

The fault is theirs, so you may abuse the system until they realize something is wrong with it.

 

Also, I think you are lucky. Not because you are lucking out with the draws, but because there is such a flawed lottery in your viccinity

Yeah well when two police officers and someone from the pa lottery knocks on your door inquiring about how often you win the lottery and saying you may have to pay back the money, your parents don't pat you on the back.

[DrP]

If they come round asking for your money then tell them to take a hike. You won it fair and square according to the terms and conditions on the tickets right?