John Cuthber Posted April 9, 2017 Posted April 9, 2017 Geeze. Why don't you calculate this lottery and win a few grand? Seems like you'd be able to do it a lot more efficient then we did. Because we carefully checked it and found that you can't win.
Raider5678 Posted April 9, 2017 Author Posted April 9, 2017 Because we carefully checked it and found that you can't win. Huh. So no pattern?
John Cuthber Posted April 9, 2017 Posted April 9, 2017 Huh. So no pattern? No real evidence of one. And, with no evidence of a pattern, there's no way to "game" the system. The good news is that you aren't going to get into trouble. The bad news is that you aren't going to make money.
Prometheus Posted April 9, 2017 Posted April 9, 2017 It is not a sound method So, i simulated 3032 draws from a uniform distribution 1 - 100. I then calculated the p-value as in previous posts. I did this 10000 times. The simulation returned p-values of 0.05 or less with a ratio of 0.0491 of the simulations. Nearly exactly what we'd expect. The distribution of the p-values is also uniform[0,1] as we would expect under the null hypothesis. The chi-squared test is performing well under these conditions. Of course it's not perfect, but i think it provides sufficient evidence to explore Raider's lottery a little more closely. My code in R is below for anyone following. I forgot to set a seed so results will vary a bit. % Generate multiple samples of numbers drawn from a uniform distribution 1-100. d = 1:100 # The range of numbers from which to be selected n = 3032 # The number of draws N = 10000 # The number of replicates draw <- matrix(, nrow = N, ncol = n) p <- matrix(, nrow = N, ncol = 1) for(i in 1:N) { draw[i,] <- sample(d, n, replace = TRUE) } for(i in 1:N) { p <- chisq.test(table(draw[i,]), rescale.p=TRUE)$p.value } #Plot the observed p-values hist(p, main="Histogram of P-values", xlab="P-Value", border="blue", col="red", las=1, breaks=100) chisq.test(p, rescale.p=TRUE, simulate.p.value = TRUE) #Test the uniformity of the p-values # Check the proportion of p-values below standard significance level sig <- p[p<=0.05] length(sig)/length(p)
Raider5678 Posted April 10, 2017 Author Posted April 10, 2017 (edited) No real evidence of one. And, with no evidence of a pattern, there's no way to "game" the system. The good news is that you aren't going to get into trouble. The bad news is that you aren't going to make money. The other guy got 6 months in jail for theft by deception and some other law that I can't find. I'm so screwed. Edited April 10, 2017 by Raider5678
imatfaal Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 So, i simulated 3032 draws from a uniform distribution 1 - 100. I then calculated the p-value as in previous posts. I did this 10000 times. The simulation returned p-values of 0.05 or less with a ratio of 0.0491 of the simulations. Nearly exactly what we'd expect. The distribution of the p-values is also uniform[0,1] as we would expect under the null hypothesis. The chi-squared test is performing well under these conditions. Of course it's not perfect, but i think it provides sufficient evidence to explore Raider's lottery a little more closely. My code in R is below for anyone following. I forgot to set a seed so results will vary a bit. % Generate multiple samples of numbers drawn from a uniform distribution 1-100. d = 1:100 # The range of numbers from which to be selected n = 3032 # The number of draws N = 10000 # The number of replicates draw <- matrix(, nrow = N, ncol = n) p <- matrix(, nrow = N, ncol = 1) for(i in 1:N) { draw[i,] <- sample(d, n, replace = TRUE) } for(i in 1:N) { p <- chisq.test(table(draw[i,]), rescale.p=TRUE)$p.value } #Plot the observed p-values hist(p, main="Histogram of P-values", xlab="P-Value", border="blue", col="red", las=1, breaks=100) chisq.test(p, rescale.p=TRUE, simulate.p.value = TRUE) #Test the uniformity of the p-values # Check the proportion of p-values below standard significance level sig <- p[p<=0.05] length(sig)/length(p) There is something amiss. I am, or we are, introducing a methodological error somewhere and I don't know enough to be aware of it. Oh Capt My Capt - if you are around a little prod in the right direction would be great. The Beloved Leader (All Hail) is a Statisitics guru and could explain what I am doing wrong and why NIST don't list chi-squared in their testing suite for randomness; unfo he is spending far too much time writing books and theses about statistics
Prometheus Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 and why NIST don't list chi-squared in their testing suite for randomness; All the chi-square test can tell us is whether at least one of the numbers is not behaving as expected: it won't give us any clues as to how it is behaving, or the overall distribution or any correlations etc. I guess more powerful techniques are needed for that, which is probably what that website go straight for as they are pros. Would be good to get a professional opinion - are you referring to Cap'n Refsmmat? I'm so screwed. Sounds like a strange situation. Hope you're OK.
Delta1212 Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 I'm wondering if the friend might have been involved with more than just "calculating" the numbers to pick each week.
Lord Antares Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 I'm wondering if the friend might have been involved with more than just "calculating" the numbers to pick each week. Yes. It is simply impossible that he would get jail time for this. There is no law against this and there shouldn't be. You probably misunderstood the situation and he went to jail for something unrelated to th lottery.
Raider5678 Posted April 10, 2017 Author Posted April 10, 2017 I'm wondering if the friend might have been involved with more than just "calculating" the numbers to pick each week. They confiscated his computer, which scared both of us. You said he couldn't get in trouble, so we figured he'd get his computer back. Then they arrested him, took him to a court house, and found him guilty of theft by deception and some other law that I can't find. He got 6 months jail(well, juvenile detention), and Somebody help me find this law. Something to do with the lottery and it sounds like it's named after somebody. Yes. It is simply impossible that he would get jail time for this. There is no law against this and there shouldn't be. You probably misunderstood the situation and he went to jail for something unrelated to th lottery. We did the same thing. We both did the probability work together, and both bet the same numbers. I'm assuming you think he hacked it, and he didn't.
Lord Antares Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 No, I don't think he hacked it. I'm not a lawyer but I am 100% that this cannot get you into jail. If there is a method to ''game'' the system, then they have a faulty/gamed system and that's their fault. It cannot be illegal. There is no law stating that you can't calculate numbers in the lottery simply because lottery results are supposed to be random, i.e. uncalculable. Are you sure he went to jail because of this? How well do you know him?Also, imatfaal is a lawyer, I am sure he will confirm that there is nothing to go to jail for.
Raider5678 Posted April 10, 2017 Author Posted April 10, 2017 No, I don't think he hacked it. I'm not a lawyer but I am 100% that this cannot get you into jail. If there is a method to ''game'' the system, then they have a faulty/gamed system and that's their fault. It cannot be illegal. There is no law stating that you can't calculate numbers in the lottery simply because lottery results are supposed to be random, i.e. uncalculable. Are you sure he went to jail because of this? How well do you know him? Also, imatfaal is a lawyer, I am sure he will confirm that there is nothing to go to jail for. I know him fairly well, but I trust him that he didn't lie. Yes, it was because of the lottery. That's what he said. Imatfaal, is there any laws concerning the lottery/gambling? Like casinos can throw you out for counting cards. Is there something like a lottery version of that?
Lord Antares Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 Yes, they can throw you out on their decision, but you cannot get into trouble with the law - that's the point.
imatfaal Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 I know him fairly well, but I trust him that he didn't lie. Yes, it was because of the lottery. That's what he said. Imatfaal, is there any laws concerning the lottery/gambling? Like casinos can throw you out for counting cards. Is there something like a lottery version of that? nb Different jurisdictions different laws. This would - I think - be a state thing. All provisos regarding this not being advice just opinion, I am in England, you are not a client, I work in shipping not criminal law etc - I can see no way that understanding that a third party lottery system is flawed and leveraging that could be criminal; it goes against pretty much the entirity of the system that your nation runs upon. If one was involved in the lottery then different matter entirely, if there is more than spotting a weakness in the system different again, if you contravene other state laws in the process ... Casinos can refuse your custom, even send the boys out with you to encourage you not to return, put your name and photo on circulars etc - but I do not believe that counting cards is illegal anywhere (although carrying a computer to do so may be illegal) You are almost certainly playing illegally as there is a rule that you must be over 18.
Raider5678 Posted April 10, 2017 Author Posted April 10, 2017 nb Different jurisdictions different laws. This would - I think - be a state thing. All provisos regarding this not being advice just opinion, I am in England, you are not a client, I work in shipping not criminal law etc - I can see no way that understanding that a third party lottery system is flawed and leveraging that could be criminal; it goes against pretty much the entirity of the system that your nation runs upon. If one was involved in the lottery then different matter entirely, if there is more than spotting a weakness in the system different again, if you contravene other state laws in the process ... Casinos can refuse your custom, even send the boys out with you to encourage you not to return, put your name and photo on circulars etc - but I do not believe that counting cards is illegal anywhere (although carrying a computer to do so may be illegal) You are almost certainly playing illegally as there is a rule that you must be over 18. Wait. Would a computer program that predicts the numbers make it illegal?
Delta1212 Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 Wait. Would a computer program that predicts the numbers make it illegal? A properly dealt game of blackjack has a slight advantage to the house that switches to a slight advantage to the player if you can effectively count cards. A properly run lottery does not provide any advantage to someone with a machine that picks numbers for them.
StringJunky Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 A properly dealt game of blackjack has a slight advantage to the house that switches to a slight advantage to the player if you can effectively count cards. A properly run lottery does not provide any advantage to someone with a machine that picks numbers for them. Is card counting just remembering what cards have already been used?
Delta1212 Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 Is card counting just remembering what cards have already been used? More or less, although especially when multiple decks are in use, it can become unrealistic to remember all of the cards that have come up vs which ones are remaining, so most card counting systems are a bit simpler than just trying to remember the cards themselves. For example, you can keep a running score that different cards add to or subtract from as you see them so that you can tell when a deck is running "hot" based on the weighted value of the remaining cards even if you don't remember specifically which ones you have or haven't seen yet.
StringJunky Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 More or less, although especially when multiple decks are in use, it can become unrealistic to remember all of the cards that have come up vs which ones are remaining, so most card counting systems are a bit simpler than just trying to remember the cards themselves. For example, you can keep a running score that different cards add to or subtract from as you see them so that you can tell when a deck is running "hot" based on the weighted value of the remaining cards even if you don't remember specifically which ones you have or haven't seen yet. How do they know you are counting? Because you are winning more than expected?
Delta1212 Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 How do they know you are counting? Because you are winning more than expected? If you're doing it in your head, pretty much. Although it takes more than a one-night winning streak to get banned. Generally, the people get caught after going back to the same casino continuously. Casinos invest a lot of their security budget in tracking people on the floor in order to detect abnormally large win rates over time.
imatfaal Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 If you're doing it in your head, pretty much. Although it takes more than a one-night winning streak to get banned. Generally, the people get caught after going back to the same casino continuously. Casinos invest a lot of their security budget in tracking people on the floor in order to detect abnormally large win rates over time. It is not so much the win rates over time - nor is it a long process; a well trained pit boss can spot a counter very quickly, definitely before they make a decent amount of cash. After a substantial but not huge number of hands the betting and playing technique of a counter is recognizable - it no longer follows best practice nor most common practice.
Delta1212 Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 It is not so much the win rates over time - nor is it a long process; a well trained pit boss can spot a counter very quickly, definitely before they make a decent amount of cash. After a substantial but not huge number of hands the betting and playing technique of a counter is recognizable - it no longer follows best practice nor most common practice. Yes, actually I guess you're right. I would imagine the abnormal betting rhythm would become fairly obvious to someone who knew what they were looking for.
StringJunky Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 (edited) Yes, actually I guess you're right. I would imagine the abnormal betting rhythm would become fairly obvious to someone who knew what they were looking for. Basically, they want crap card players that don't know it inside out. Casinos are a scam. Edited April 10, 2017 by StringJunky
imatfaal Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 Basically, they want crap card players that don't know it inside out. Casinos are a scam. Not entirely; they want people who think they have a system - many of whom know the game backwards but do not understand probability and statistics. The casinos loved card-counting; once they learned how to eject counters they found that profits were going up. It was proof that systems do exist and a huge fillip to the inveterate gambler who is the lifeblood of the casino; all the poor saps with systems were able to kid themselves that they had found a similar idea to counting and they just needed to keep it up for a bit longer for the money to start rolling in... Casinos are a scam though
Lord Antares Posted April 10, 2017 Posted April 10, 2017 It was proof that systems do exist It depends on the game. While cards are probability based, the issue is that cards get eliminated and the shuffle isn't perfect. The roulette is a great example of what you're talking about. It's basically a coin flip with more sides but there are still people who are convinced that the wheel is rigged. The casinos loved card-counting; once they learned how to eject counters they found that profits were going up. But doesn't this indicate that they didn't love counting, rather than they did? The profits were going up because they were eliminating those who counted cards. Smaller number of people who count cards = lower chance of them winning = higher profit for the casino. I guess the point about people thinking they had a similar system stands, but I think they would have tried to use it regardless of whether they knew about card counting.
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