Lottery Calculating Trouble

[Delta1212]

 

It depends on the game. While cards are probability based, the issue is that cards get eliminated and the shuffle isn't perfect. The roulette is a great example of what you're talking about. It's basically a coin flip with more sides but there are still people who are convinced that the wheel is rigged.

 

 

 

But doesn't this indicate that they didn't love counting, rather than they did? The profits were going up because they were eliminating those who counted cards. Smaller number of people who count cards = lower chance of them winning = higher profit for the casino.

 

I guess the point about people thinking they had a similar system stands, but I think they would have tried to use it regardless of whether they knew about card counting.

I think the point is that they love card counting for the publicity, rather than the card counters themselves. They ejected card counters, thereby demonstrating to the world that card counting is effective and convincing the gamblers who are all convinced of their own systems in other games that the house can be beaten, even though the things they are trying themselves don't actually work.

[Lord Antares]

Yes, I understood, but see the last sentence.

 

Esentially, I don't think people are dull enough to think that there are other untested systems like that? Couldn't that be inferred from the results anyway?

 

I mean, maybe the publicity about card counting was good to start them thinking about a system, but couldn't they very quickly figure out if it worked based on the results?

[Delta1212]

Yes, I understood, but see the last sentence.

 

Esentially, I don't think people are dull enough to think that there are other untested systems like that? Couldn't that be inferred from the results anyway?

 

I mean, maybe the publicity about card counting was good to start them thinking about a system, but couldn't they very quickly figure out if it worked based on the results?

I'm going to go out on a limb and bet that you have not had very much extended contact with hardcore gamblers.

 

Also see: The entire thread leading up to this discussion

[Lord Antares]

Also see: The entire thread leading up to this discussion

 

Haha good point. I've been replying to it from the beginning, but at least the OP had a lot of luck. Another person trying to use a system would not be as lucky. Or, more accurately, there is a discintly small chance that someone would use a system that doesn't work and get consistently positive results such that they make it seem like the system works.

[imatfaal]

 

Haha good point. I've been replying to it from the beginning, but at least the OP had a lot of luck. Another person trying to use a system would not be as lucky. Or, more accurately, there is a discintly small chance that someone would use a system that doesn't work and get consistently positive results such that they make it seem like the system works.

 

I know someone with Doctoral level qualifications whose salary is paid into his life-partner's account as otherwise he would end up just trying one last time to show his system must work.

 

The Gambler's Fallacy is regularly trotted out here and other online fora.

 

The UK gaming industry took in nearly 13billion GBP more than they paid out last year!

[Lord Antares]

I understand that gambling is more like a disease of irrationality, but I just can't fathom how someone (with doctorate level qualifications) would think they have a system with self-evident statistics against it.

[imatfaal]

I understand that gambling is more like a disease of irrationality, but I just can't fathom how someone (with doctorate level qualifications) would think they have a system with self-evident statistics against it.

 

...irrationality...

 

versus

 

... self-evident statistics...

 

In some of us one side is dominant , in others the flip side is more important. And it is not just gambling - it is everything.

Btw - "disease of irrationality" - perfect summation

[Pugdaddy]

Is it not possible for the gaming people to rig the system? Like the OP said. Looking at the numbers that are picked the most and set up the computer generated picks to pick them less often to increase profit? Could a casino see what are the most popular number bet on in say roulette and tinker with the wheel to make them less likely to come up. Maybe by doing something with the wheel's bearings that make some numbers/colour less like to be stopped on? Is there any agency doing oversight on the gaming commissions practices? I know there is a dial in the slot machines that can adjust how much is paid out, but I am pretty sure that is advertised in each casino what the pay out is. Like 4% or 4.2% or whatever. Is anyone/agency checking?

[Lord Antares]

It would be readily noticeable to anyone who frequents the casino. Especially for people who look into these statistics and try to work out a system. A system could never be worked out only if the numbers are truly random, which is what they are in a true casino. It would only detriment the casino.

2 people have done a statistical analysis in this thread and it seems that nothing is out of the ordinary - about what you would expect from randomness.

 

Also, as someone else has mentioned, casinos make a constant profit as is. There is mostly no trouble and the beauty is that the profit is steady since they work on the fact that the odds are ever so slightly in their favor. They gain profit with steady mathematics. It's one of the safest types of business which is ironic, considering that it's all about gambling.

[Strange]

Is it not possible for the gaming people to rig the system? Like the OP said. Looking at the numbers that are picked the most and set up the computer generated picks to pick them less often to increase profit? Could a casino see what are the most popular number bet on in say roulette and tinker with the wheel to make them less likely to come up. Maybe by doing something with the wheel's bearings that make some numbers/colour less like to be stopped on? Is there any agency doing oversight on the gaming commissions practices?

 

 

There are, in most places, checks to prevent this sort of thing. With, I believe, penalties such that it shouldn't be worth risking it.

 

However, the first book on probability theory I read listed a number of potentially winning strategies. One was to bet against the largest bets on the table. If the house is crooked, they will let you win rather than the big bet. (It also pointed out that this is potentially dangerous if they (a) are crooked and (b) notice what you are doing.)

Edited April 11, 2017 by Strange