Trump Effects

[Raider5678]

1 minute ago, Ten oz said:

Post 9/11 people rallied around the President. Bush had overwhelming support for about a year. 

Ah, alright.

 

It just seems that in my valley, more and more people dislike Trump.

In fact, my pastor even talked about voting for independents rather than Republicans.

Edited December 20, 2017 by Raider5678

[rangerx]

10 minutes ago, Raider5678 said:

It just seems that in my valley, more and more people dislike Trump.

In fact, my pastor even talked about voting for independents rather than Republicans.

It's because Trump is not leading from the people, he's blathering from the lunatic fringe of the right winged base.

While that may work around election time or in totalitarian regimes, it does not work for the people at large in a democracy.

 

 

Buried in the tax bill:

http://www.newsweek.com/tax-bill-approved-arctic-drilling-will-plunder-10-billion-barrels-oil-and-753670
 

What did America get for handing over it's parks to big oil? Pennies at the pump?

Regulations put in place after the Exxon Valdez are gone.

 

Not great.

 

 

[Ten oz]

3 hours ago, Raider5678 said:

Ah, alright.

 

It just seems that in my valley, more and more people dislike Trump.

In fact, my pastor even talked about voting for independents rather than Republicans.

It seems like more people dislike him but the polling doesn't show it. Also Trump was never well liked in the first place. He lost the popular vote and held high unfavorable ratings all Election season. So I think there is a certain amount of confirmation bias at play when people saying "more" people dislike him.

[Raider5678]

7 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

It seems like more people dislike him but the polling doesn't show it. Also Trump was never well liked in the first place. He lost the popular vote and held high unfavorable ratings all Election season. So I think there is a certain amount of confirmation bias at play when people saying "more" people dislike him.

Possibly.

 

[Ten oz]

It isn't just Republican vs Democrat. The current administration takes an angrily divisive approach with leaders around the world threatening to hurt then whether through economic or purely violent means. 

"President Trump suggested on Wednesday that the United States could withhold foreign aid for countries that vote in favor of a United Nations (U.N.) resolution calling on the U.S. to withdraw its recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, Trump echoed a comment made by U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley a day earlier, saying that the U.S. would take stock of the countries that voted for the resolution, which is set to go before the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday"

[rangerx]

23 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

It isn't just Republican vs Democrat. The current administration takes an angrily divisive approach with leaders around the world threatening to hurt then whether through economic or purely violent means.

Pretty much all of my life, the words socialist or communist rolled off the tongues of republicans in an era of McCarthyism as a means to an end of a discussion on any matter. Now that Republicans jumped into bed with the Russians, not so much.

I can image the bloody murder being screamed from neocons if the shoe were on the other foot.

[iNow]

5 hours ago, Raider5678 said:

Actually, many of the people that originally supported Trump no longer support him.

Then, by definition, they no longer belong in the category “Trump supporters” to which Ten Oz specifically referred. 

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

It seems like more people dislike him but the polling doesn't show it.

His polling, in fact, is likely to see a spike these next few weeks given his massive handout to big banks, donors, and corporations ... open looting of government, lining of his family coffers, feathering of his own nest .... reverse Robin Hood... pending signature of the debt exploding tax bill. 

[interested]

23 hours ago, Ten oz said:

He appears to have malignant narcissism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malignant_narcissism and a series of other mental issues that are not deemed good in a political leader of any country. I guess he and his supporters may consider being called a moron a complement compared with what some professional shrinks are saying about him. 

Does this not concern any one that Trump might not be a balanced individual. His supporters seem to like him. What do the Majority of Americans who did not vote for him think of their new representative for America in the world. Do any of the majority of Americans recognize that the Trump effect may affect Americas reputation globally, perhaps in a bad way.

14 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Post 9/11 people rallied around the President. Bush had overwhelming support for about a year. 

People have a habit of supporting political leaders who appear to defend their own country, its normal human behavior, and repeats throughout history. Politicians like to appear strong in the face of external pressure. Hitler had wide spread support from Germans prior to WW2, and was considered by many to be a little unstable.

[Ten oz]

12 hours ago, rangerx said:

Pretty much all of my life, the words socialist or communist rolled off the tongues of republicans in an era of McCarthyism as a means to an end of a discussion on any matter. Now that Republicans jumped into bed with the Russians, not so much.

I can image the bloody murder being screamed from neocons if the shoe were on the other foot.

Do on to others as you'd have them do unto you is a comically simply standard of behavior everyone over the age of 5 understands. The way the President is treating world leaders, media, and anyone who doesn't kiss his @ss is in a manner no one wants done unto them. The presidents even abuses his own staff via twitter: challenging Sec of State Tillerson to an IQ test, saying he should fire Attorney General Sessions, trashing FBI Deputy Director Mcabe, and etc. The behavior is terrible. It goes beyond any degree of partisan grandstanding. The President is actually, not just rhetorically, a sick person.  The threat having leaders who exhibit the behaviors Trump exhibits is dangerous. History has proven it again and again and again. This will not end well for the United States and everyone who cares about the United States more so than the Republican Party should be outraged. 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Ten oz
typos

[DrP]

6 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

 The threat having leaders who exhibit the behaviors Trump exhibits is dangerous. History has proven it again and again and again.

What are the odds on a nuke being fired before he's finished? I said before he was even voted in that it was written all over him.  But the majority of voting Americans seem to back him (according to the vote count) - they surely weren't so blind or stupid to now be surprised by how he is acting - he is pretty much as advertised in his campaign.  You got exactly what you voted for.  Hey - maybe all out world nuclear war is what the world needs right now to clear the air and brush off the cobwebs. :rollseyes:

 

I'm going to stop criticising him...  if we go to war I want to win and will have to back him. I don't blame him for anything he has done  -  I blame those that voted him into power knowing exactly what they were getting - all of this was totally obvious when he started running.   

[Ten oz]

3 minutes ago, DrP said:

What are the odds on a nuke being fired before he's finished?

While the odds of this President using Nuclear Weapons is far greater than that of his predecessor it isn't the only risk. Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan saw hundreds of thousands die and no Nuclear Weapons were used. It doesn't take the worst case scenario to achieve terrible results. 

 

7 minutes ago, DrP said:

But the majority of voting Americans seem to back him (according to the vote count) -

He lost the popular vote by 3 million.

 

8 minutes ago, DrP said:

You got exactly what you voted for.

Not exactly. The U.S. doesn't have a direct representation system for President. 

 

11 minutes ago, DrP said:

I'm going to stop criticising him... if we go to war I want to win and will have to back him.

I rather see my fellow citizens rise up and remove him or at the very least take control of Congress and contain him before we get to that point.

[dimreepr]

30 minutes ago, DrP said:

I'm going to stop criticising him...  if we go to war I want to win and will have to back him. 

 

What price victory?

[rangerx]

4 hours ago, DrP said:

if we go to war I want to win and will have to back him.

Canada will help the United States during any righteous war.  We are STILL in Afghanistan.

That's why we told America to pound salt over Iraq.

By the way, America lost that war. Vietnam too. Late for WW1, late for WW2.

Churchill said it best. "We can always count on America to do the right thing after all other alternatives are exhausted."

Edited December 21, 2017 by rangerx

[dimreepr]

22 minutes ago, rangerx said:

Canada will help the United States during any righteous war. 

 

Righteous indignation is a pre-requisite of any war, the army is strong and few rally against it...

[zapatos]

19 hours ago, Ten oz said:

It seems like more people dislike him but the polling doesn't show it. Also Trump was never well liked in the first place. He lost the popular vote and held high unfavorable ratings all Election season. So I think there is a certain amount of confirmation bias at play when people saying "more" people dislike him.

Unless you are looking at very short time frames it looks as if the polling does show that more people dislike him.

In January 2017, roughly 45% of those polled approved of Trump and 42% disapproved.

In December 2017, roughly 37% of those polled approved of Trump, while 57% disapproved.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[interested]

6 hours ago, DrP said:

But the majority of voting Americans seem to back him (according to the vote count)

I was under the impression that Hillary Clinton according to the BBC had 2 million more votes than Trump. Trump won more states but had less votes. A huge number of Americans never exercised their right to vote, perhaps because they couldnt be bothered or considered neither candidate from either party worth voting for.

Edited December 21, 2017 by interested

[Phi for All]

35 minutes ago, interested said:

I was under the impression that Hillary Clinton according to the BBC had 2 million more votes than Trump.

2.9 million.

[Ten oz]

49 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Unless you are looking at very short time frames it looks as if the polling does show that more people dislike him.

In January 2017, roughly 45% of those polled approved of Trump and 42% disapproved.

In December 2017, roughly 37% of those polled approved of Trump, while 57% disapproved.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Trump's favorable/unfavorable is better today than it was on election day. https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

We can play around with which dates to look at but ultimately Trump have more favorable polling or at least as good today than he did at any point leading up to election day. 

[swansont]

15 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Trump's favorable/unfavorable is better today than it was on election day. https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

We can play around with which dates to look at but ultimately Trump have more favorable polling or at least as good today than he did at any point leading up to election day. 

It peaked in December of 2016, and has been trending down ever since. His "honeymoon" period had an approval rating ~10 points or more lower than other presidents in the last half-century.

It's probably not going to drop below ~35, because there is a base that will never abandon the GOP, because for them it is tribal, not rational. So in that context, it's almost as low as it can possible get.

[Ten oz]

44 minutes ago, swansont said:

It peaked in December of 2016, and has been trending down ever since. His "honeymoon" period had an approval rating ~10 points or more lower than other presidents in the last half-century.

It's probably not going to drop below ~35, because there is a base that will never abandon the GOP, because for them it is tribal, not rational. So in that context, it's almost as low as it can possible get.

Raider5678's comment was that many of those who "originally supported Trump" no longer do. That references Election day support? Trump is as favorable today or more so than he was at any point leading up to election day or on election day itself. None of his "original" support seems to have changed. In context to what I'm responding to I think I am being accurate? 

On 12/20/2017 at 2:12 PM, Raider5678 said:

There is another thread called "How does Trump annoy you?"

I believe replies like this are better suited for that.

There is a saying that given enough time, a democracy will sell it's right's to the highest bidder.

Actually, many of the people that originally supported Trump no longer support him.

Leading me to believe that in all actuality you don't really look into what the other side believes, only that you know they won.

 

 

[swansont]

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

Raider5678's comment was that many of those who "originally supported Trump" no longer do. That references Election day support? Trump is as favorable today or more so than he was at any point leading up to election day or on election day itself.

"Originally" is ambiguous. People who didn't support him during the primary supported him after the nomination. Same for before/after the election. I think approval bumps up after the election (happened for Obama)

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

None of his "original" support seems to have changed. In context to what I'm responding to I think I am being accurate? 

I wasn't disagreeing. Like I said, the base will not abandon him. I just think that's the wrong metric to use. His popularity has waned among the people who gave him provisional approval, before he had done anything but make promises, but before he had a chance to break them.

 

[Ten oz]

16 minutes ago, swansont said:

Like I said, the base will not abandon him. I just think that's the wrong metric to use. His popularity has waned among the people who gave him provisional approval, before he had done anything but make promises, but before he had a chance to break them.

True, however those who gave him higher approval post Election in December didn't necessarily vote for him. Approval for every President initially rises post Election day as people both search for catharsis and don't want to be sore losers; the later being something Trump supporters often play up. In my opinion the question is whether or not those who voted for him in 2016 wouldn't today if they had the choice again and it doesn't seem like a significant amount of them would vote any different which means his support (real voting support)  is nearly unchanged. Hopefully I am wrong.

Edited December 22, 2017 by Ten oz
Correct typo

[swansont]

5 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

True, however those who gave him higher approval post Election in December didn't necessarily vote for him. Approval for every President initially rises post Election day as people both search for catharsis and don't want to be sore losers; the later being something Trump supporters often play up. In my opinion the question is whether or not anyone who voted for him in 2016 wouldn't of they had the choice again and it doesn't seem like a significant amount of them would vote any difference which means his support (real voting support)  is unchanged. Hopefully I am wrong.

We've seen proxies of this support in other elections in the past year. It's not as strong. Tighter races in GOP strongholds and flipped seats when the GOP advantage was smaller 

[Ten oz]

16 minutes ago, swansont said:

We've seen proxies of this support in other elections in the past year. It's not as strong. Tighter races in GOP strongholds and flipped seats when the GOP advantage was smaller 

Dems lost over a thousand seats nationally during Obama's tenure. That didn't mean Obama lost any of his supporters.

[swansont]

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

Dems lost over a thousand seats nationally during Obama's tenure. That didn't mean Obama lost any of his supporters.

But he did. 2 million votes down in 2012 vs 2008. (Some of the contribution to lost seats was gerrymandering and some was voter suppression, so there's not going to be a perfect correlation)