Stock Market, Post Trump

[DoYouEvenScienceBro]

I saw James Woods posted this on Twitter (sorry, I can't figure out how to embed tweets):

 

 

We've seen a meteoric rise in the stock market, post-Trump election win.

 

What do you think is that cause of this?

 

Is it a case of correlation, but not causation, or did Trump's win directly led to the rise?

 

How did some many prognosticators get it so wrong? They all predicted doom and gloom on election night and the days after, yet the opposite has happened. What does this suggest about uncritically accepting so-called authority opinion?

Edited May 30, 2017 by DoYouEvenScienceBro

[Lord Antares]

Because they thought since Trump eats children and burns villages in his spare time, he must therefore throw away all the money in the US just for the sake of being evil.

 

It's just blinding hate and lack of objectivity, really. Any sane person understood that he wouldn't crash the stock market. I checked other sources just in case, and they support this statistic.

[swansont]

 

How did some many prognosticators get it so wrong?

 

 

If you pay attention to financial pundits you will find (like political ones) that they are often wrong.

 

Trump's effect on the economy has scarcely had time to be felt and be reflected in the stock market. No real economic policies have been passed. The one known area of effect has been a drop in tourism.

[iNow]

Much of this is due to the overall health of the economy, something that found traction under Obama thanks to two terms with a steady hand on the wheel.

 

Keep in mind that Trump hasn't implemented any policies yet that would affect the economy, especially not this soon.

 

The affect we're seeing is from General sentiment, emotion and gut feelings... specifically that businesses feel Trump will cut their taxes and eliminate regulations, be damned with the environment and health of our kids.

 

Latest reports suggest, however, those levels of excitement are quickly diminishing now they folks are more consistently seeing what a huckster he really is.

[Lord Antares]

 

Trump's effect on the economy has scarcely had time to be felt and be reflected in the stock market.

 

 

Keep in mind that Trump hasn't implemented any policies yet that would affect the economy, especially not this soon.

 

Then why are there such things as statistics this early on? They have existed since 1923.

 

 

[iNow]

The policies being enforced now were enacted under previous presidents. Is this really so challenging to understand?

[Lord Antares]

So ALL of these statistic changes are a coincidence?

[iNow]

See my previous post

[KipIngram]

Responding to the OP. The one thing I had no doubt about expecting from a Trump Presidency would be a bending over backwards to grease the skids for corporate America. Many people seem to think that is the essence of being "pro-capitalism," but I think the corporation dominated economy we have today is far, far from healthy. What we should be doing making it easier to start new small businesses and harder to become huge, so that we truly have some close approximation of the "perfect competition" described in the economics books.

 

So I have no doubt it's a direct result of his election - corporate big shots no doubt did a Snoopy Happy Dance when the election results came in. Well, maybe except for the ones who consider him an enemy.

[MigL]

I would think the economic indicators relate more closely with the periods/times of those hundred days, and the historical circumstances.

Probably not ( solely ) related to the President in office at the time, Lord Antares.

You would probably find not too dissimilar indicators for Canada during the same periods

[swansont]

So ALL of these statistic changes are a coincidence?

 

 

Actual economic statistics: non-government jobs, inflation, etc. — that was largely inertia from Obama's policies, but declining over time.

 

The stock market moves in anticipation of further changes. Part of that rise, at least, is due to people thinking Trump's policies will be positive. Lower taxes on businesses, for example, is something being expected. But that's all short-term. If Trump doesn't follow through, or enacts bad policies, it will drop if companies see a shrinking of profits.

 

Obama oversaw a 140% rise in the stock market, despite inheriting an economic crash that hit at the end of Bush's term.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/10/investing/obama-stock-market-trump/

 

 

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” - Benjamin Graham

[Delta1212]

The real test of the effect a president has on the economy is not what the market is doing in his first year but in his last year.*

 

 

 

*Offer not valid if they happen to be the same year

[dimreepr]

I saw James Woods posted this on Twitter (sorry, I can't figure out how to embed tweets):

 

 

We've seen a meteoric rise in the stock market, post-Trump election win.

 

What do you think is that cause of this?

 

Is it a case of correlation, but not causation, or did Trump's win directly led to the rise?

 

How did some many prognosticators get it so wrong? They all predicted doom and gloom on election night and the days after, yet the opposite has happened. What does this suggest about uncritically accepting so-called authority opinion?

 

Never gamble with more than you can afford to loose...

[Ten oz]

Our govts Budget runs Sept - Aug. 2017's budget was signed by Obama in Aug of 2016. Trump's first budget doesn't exist yet and his policies are not yet in place. The stock market is up on anticipation of tax cuts and deregulation. After Trump's first budget is passed we will have a clearer idea of where things might be headed. Currently it is just speculation. We really don't know if Trump will be able to get the tax cuts and defense spending he wants through congress. We really don't know what will happen with healthcare.

[swansont]

Our govts Budget runs Sept - Aug. 2017's budget was signed by Obama in Aug of 2016. Trump's first budget doesn't exist yet and his policies are not yet in place. The stock market is up on anticipation of tax cuts and deregulation. After Trump's first budget is passed we will have a clearer idea of where things might be headed. Currently it is just speculation. We really don't know if Trump will be able to get the tax cuts and defense spending he wants through congress. We really don't know what will happen with healthcare.

 

 

The formal budget is not the only way to impact the economy. Remember that Obama signed the stimulus package (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009) into law in Feb of his first year — supplemental appropriations can be passed at any time.

 

And while we don't have a Trump budget in place, he did sign the latest CRA. However, one should note that congress added in quite a few things that he wanted to cut into that agreement.

 

Further, even though he has signed no major legislation, he has signed several executive orders that can and will have an impact on the economy. Like the Obama stimulus, though, it takes time for the effects to appear in the economy.

[Phi for All]

I'm going to predict a sharp rise in internet crimes (with lots of for-profit solutions on the market), if only for the fact that one of Trump's first EOs removed laws requiring ISPs to take reasonable measures to protect client information like social security and credit card numbers. He did that even before he removed Dodd-Frank, which was a lot like tearing down the shark screen you put up to make it safe for people to get back in the water.