Predicting Evolution..

[blike]

I watched an interesting show on discovery recently which showed what the earth would possibly be like in the future. They were showing all sorts of creatures. But they weren't just showing creatures, they were giving all kinds of detailed info: size, weight, date (i.e. 100 million years from now), food, location...most of the information you would give for modern animals. It got to the point where I determined that they were guessing...on just about everything.

 

Is there a science to predicting evolutionary patterns? Obviously none of it can be tested, but is there a degree in this sort of stuff or something..

[matthew]

I'm not sure, but i would assume that a notable attempt at figuring it out would be that they use current/past environment conditions and the creatures around during them, and anticipate how current species will adapt to future predicted conditions in the environment. That seems logical to me, but they may have used some other method... although i'm fairly sure its the same, or at least derived from the same concept, someone may choose to go into the intricate details (most likely to be faf with some sort of sound figures on adaptation/evolution/mutation rates) because i did not do so.

[daisy]

They probably did use some kind of computer modelling system but what they can't surely predict is the type of natural event that will result in a major "evolutionary upheaval". My understanding of punctuated equilibrium is that big evolutionary changes occur during big natural events, such as meteorites hitting the earth (extinction of dinosaurs etc). Now I know that to some extent these events can be predicted but what you can't really predict is the response of particular species unless you know every complex interaction of genes that might allow an organism to survive - including transcriptional events that occur under stress. I suppose they used educated guesses -but they aren't always correct!! Beauty of this type of programme is that they can present it as fact and it's already out there before anyone can argue about it. And anyway...isn't "interesting programme on the Discovery channel" an oxymoron?

[cHIs-]

Did it say when in the future? like 100 years 200?

[blike]

Originally posted by daisy

And anyway...isn't "interesting programme on the Discovery channel" an oxymoron?

 

 

 

lol. I watch discovery more than any other channel (except TLC, some MTV ), and I'll admit, a good deal of their shows are BORING.

 

Did it say when in the future? like 100 years 200?

 

I can't remember exactly, but it was millions of years.

[matthew]

At least you don't watch the Hitler channel incessantly like myself... i mean history channel. I must concur though, TLC is a great channel - i'm just not a fan of the breast augmentations and such... nipples should stay intact with the breast. Argh.

[daisy]

Eh? What?

[Giles]

I imagine they were combining guesswork with climate predictions. For example, the nature of a food supply can predict the mating system of a population quite closely (taking into account the reproductive biology of the organism in question, which changes quite slowly.) This works particularly well in birds.

[NSX]

Originally posted by matthew

At least you don't watch the Hitler channel incessantly like myself... i mean history channel. I must concur though, TLC is a great channel - i'm just not a fan of the breast augmentations and such... nipples should stay intact with the breast. Argh.

 

TLC?!!!

ugh; I dislike it...too much trading spaces & associated propoganda