Catalan independence referendum

[Enthalpy]

The question on October 1 was:
"Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_referendum,_2017

The organization was highly disturbed as Spain's constitutional tribunal declared the referendum unconstitutional. Judges and the Madrid government ordered the police and guardia civil to prevent it take place. Much of the process was undercover and disrupted (some videos on bbc.co.uk). Consequently, the results are not verified independently, only announced by the separatist Catalan government:
5,313,564  registered voters
2,262,424 votes
2,196,709 valid votes
2,020,144 yes
176,565 no
770,000 estimated votes prevented: stations forcibly closed, boxes removed...

So the measured turnout was 42%, but if including the (estimated!) prevented votes it's 57%.

The "yes" makes 89,3% of all votes (including invalid ones). If extrapolating this proportion to the prevented votes, it makes 2,707,700 "yes". Even if supposing that all non-voters meant "no", the "yes" would be backed by 51% of the registered voters.

[tuco]

Since clear majority been positive in past on "whether a referendum should be held", it would be interesting to see how many of those who did not show up to vote were intimidated and how many respect and accept position of Spanish government. 

[MigL]

And I thought it was just the Basque region that wanted separation.
Is Spain going the way of Yugoslavia ?

And more importantly, will Barcelona and Real Madrid be in different leagues in the future ?

[tuco]

Seem more like Kosovo *coughs*. Independence movements are common, and I would say inevitable, phenomenon at the turn of the century, and international law and understanding regarding territorial integrity seems to be lacking behind it.

Not necessarily, just like NHL for example. 

[Enthalpy]

10 hours ago, MigL said:

And more importantly, will Barcelona and Real Madrid be in different leagues in the future ?

The importance of this question in Spain shouldn't be underestimated

I can cite the example of Monaco, whose team plays in the French league. So calm relations would make it possible - presently they aren't.

17 hours ago, tuco said:

Since clear majority been positive in past on "whether a referendum should be held", it would be interesting to see how many of those who did not show up to vote were intimidated and how many respect and accept position of Spanish government. 

It would be extremely interesting, but how to know that?

We may equally well suppose that the registered voters meaning "no" (the unionists) did not want to participate to a vote declared unconstitutional and dismissed by Madrid. So while some "yes" people didn't dare to vote, I find impossible to estimate any proportion.

I put the figures here above because even if we suppose that all non-voters favoured "no", just adding the cast ballots stolen by Madrid's forces, with an assumption (=same proportion of "yes" as in the counted ballots) that I find reasonable, already gives a clear answer.

----------

The present mess results from the vote on 1st of October being very far from perfect. But the ones that use this as an argument caused it themselves.

Independence itself is contrary to the Spanish constitution. But how important should it be as compared with the popular will? The French revolution was illegal too, and in France itself, the constitution was amended to make the independence of New-Caledonia possible.

Which doesn't prevent the newspapers of France, where Northern Catalunya lies, to put these days "this would be impossible in France"... Many governments in Europe have their eyes on Catalunya.

Edited October 6, 2017 by Enthalpy

[tuco]

Well, the only way to know is to hold referendum approved by Madrid, which was my point as I am pro-independence. I come from former Czechoslovakia so I have some experience.

IMO,  and in what I view as modern liberal democracy, if an independence movement is strong, its just a matter of time when it will achieve its objective and counter actions against it are just obstructions. While this is surely internal matter of Spain, thus other governments ought to be careful with their comments, I like to think that supporting independence in general is the decent thing to do. Its not possible to keep together those who do not want to be together,  at least not in free and just society.  

Edited October 6, 2017 by tuco

[Area54]

On 06/10/2017 at 5:13 PM, tuco said:

While this is surely internal matter of Spain, thus other governments ought to be careful with their comments, I like to think that supporting independence in general is the decent thing to do

The First Minister of the Scottish Parliament, unsurprisingly since she heads the Scottish Nationalist Party, spoke in support of the desire to hold the referendum, noting “It is of course entirely legitimate for Spain to oppose independence for Catalonia, but what I think is of concern anywhere is for a state to deny the right of a people to democratically express their will,”

There were public demonstrations in Scotland in support of the referendum.

 

 

[scherado]

I'm not following this subject, but I did listen to this portion of the John Batchelor show on the subject of the Catalonia referendum:

This was a kangaroo referendum. There is no other way to describe an exercise where voters could print ballots at home and vote at any polling booth in all of Catalonia without having to worry about their names appearing on an authenticated voters’ roll. If there were ever a Platonic ideal of a riggable, manipulable exercise in voting, it was this separatist simulacrum of democracy, designed to ensure the only result possible was a majority vote for secession.

[Enthalpy]

And who's to blame for that? Madrid's forces stole in advance the ballots, the boxes, and at that day blocked the voting rooms. The vote's organisation was the least bad adaptation to this pressure.

Among the imperfections of this vote, you could add the 770,000 expressed votes stolen by Madrid's forces.

And as well, the police and guardia civil beating the voters. Some could understandingly get influenced.

[scherado]

57 minutes ago, Enthalpy said:

Among the imperfections of this vote, you could add the 770,000 expressed votes stolen by Madrid's forces.

Any shenanigans during any election is bad for any polity. No? Yes.

[dimreepr]

On 05/10/2017 at 5:58 PM, Enthalpy said:

The question on October 1 was:
"Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_referendum,_2017

The organization was highly disturbed as Spain's constitutional tribunal declared the referendum unconstitutional. Judges and the Madrid government ordered the police and guardia civil to prevent it take place. Much of the process was undercover and disrupted (some videos on bbc.co.uk). Consequently, the results are not verified independently, only announced by the separatist Catalan government:
5,313,564  registered voters
2,262,424 votes
2,196,709 valid votes
2,020,144 yes
176,565 no
770,000 estimated votes prevented: stations forcibly closed, boxes removed...

So the measured turnout was 42%, but if including the (estimated!) prevented votes it's 57%.

The "yes" makes 89,3% of all votes (including invalid ones). If extrapolating this proportion to the prevented votes, it makes 2,707,700 "yes". Even if supposing that all non-voters meant "no", the "yes" would be backed by 51% of the registered voters.

The inevitable consequence of empire is contraction, the only question is how far does it go?

[tuco]

In short term, it can go to a group of states with synchronized economies and legislatures to benefit trade and born upon consensus after public debate. Kind of like in the motto of the EU: "United in diversity". To leave the empire, to join a democratic union.