Collusion with Russia

[dimreepr]

18 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Trump will pardon those important to him and Republican's in Congress won't move against him. This is a political fight. No legal team will be swooping in and fixing anything. 

What makes you think Trump has the gun?

[iNow]

9 hours ago, Ten oz said:

We do not have to become them to defeat them. There are a million ways to stop a bad guy with intensity but none will work if none are tried. Many people want something done but assume someone else will do it. That the Mueller investigation will conclude with tangible legal action against Trump. It won't. Trump will pardon those important to him and Republican's in Congress won't move against him. This is a political fight. No legal team will be swooping in and fixing anything. 

I assume this was in addition to my point, not in opposition to it, correct?

Intensity is a barameter for voter turnout. Intensity is what drives people to wait in line at the ballot and to offer rides to their neighbors and help people register in the months prior.

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

I assume this was in addition to my point, not in opposition to it, correct?

Intensity is a barameter for voter turnout. Intensity is what drives people to wait in line at the ballot and to offer rides to their neighbors and help people register in the months prior.

Do you think the Democratic voters will be more fired up to vote than the Republican voters this time around?

[iNow]

37 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Do you think the Democratic voters will be more fired up to vote than the Republican voters this time around?

Trump seems to enjoy a fairly consistent base level support. No matter what he does, says, screws up, or lies about, he can reliably count on about 40-45% of the electorate to bolster him, many blindly and tribally. They WILL turn out.

It gets a bit uncertain with more moderate republicans, many of whom are disgusted and turned off by his antics. Many of them will simply choose to stay home, but I suspect many will also switch and vote Democrat to make a statement, especially in light of recent trade wars, tariffs, embarrassment in front of Putin in Helsinki, and policies separating children from families at iur border.

We can safely assume independent voters will largely fall into this same camp. Either don’t show up at all, or vote Democrat to make a statement. Few who didn’t previously support Trump will be converted into supporting him now. He’s not picking up new voters to expand his base. Quite the opposite. People are peeling off.

Regarding your question: Democratic intensity is certainly way up, at least relative to their past numbers. There’s a movement akin to what we saw from the right with the tea party in 2010. Young people who rarely voted in the last, and nearly never in the midterms, are registering in droves and coming out for special elections.

There is a palpable surge in anger, and anger drives people to the polls. It’s perhaps the single strongest animating factor in all of modern politics; anger. 

Where I’m most unsure is how passionate die hard Trump voters are feeling, what their intensity level is. Many are extremely amped and ready for war, seeing “their guy” as being “unfairly attacked” by the “fake news” and the “library’s” in the vast left wing conspiracy. They’re itching for a fight, and fight they will.

How that ultimately compares to democratic turnout and electoral wins very much remains to be seen, especially in light of the fact that Russian influence campaigns are already beginning to spike across social media like Facebook and Twitter. The wedge social issues are being intentionnaly dredged up to the surface to turn us all against each other.

But democrats are certainly seeing positive trends on the generic ballot (“would you rather vote for the republican or the Democrat to represent your district all other things being equal?”), so there's hope. That advantage on the generic ballot is somewhat consistently in the double digits lately, but we need to get our heads out of our asses and recall that the election is still 100 days away and that could easily change / that seeming advantage could quickly evaporate in this world where the news cycle seems flip every 100 seconds. 

Edited August 1, 2018 by iNow

[StringJunky]

5 minutes ago, iNow said:

Trump seems to enjoy a fairly consistent base level support. No matter what he does, says, screws up, or lies about, he can reliably count on about 40-45% of the electorate to bolster him, many blindly and tribally. They WILL turn out.

It gets a bit uncertain with more moderate republicans, many of whom are disgusted and turned off by his antics. Many of them will simply choose to stay home, but I suspect many will also switch and vote Democrat to make a statement, especially in light of recent trade wars, tariffs, and policies separating children from families at our borders.

We can safely assume independent voters will largely fall into this same camp. Either don’t show up at all, or vote Democrat to make a statement. Few who didn’t previously support Trump will be converted into supporting him now. He’s not picking up new voters to expand his base. Quite the opposite. People are peeling off.

Democratic intensity is certainly way up, at least relative to their past numbers. Young people who rarely voted in midterms are registering in droves. There is a surge in anger, and anger drives people to the polls. It’s perhaps the single strongest animating factor in modern politics; anger. 

Where I’m most unsure is how passionate die hard Trump voters are feeling, what their intensity level is. Many are extremely amped and ready for war, seeing “their guy” as being “unfairly attacked” by the “fake news” and vast left wing conspiracy. They’re itching for a fight, and fight they will.

How that ultimately compares to democratic turnout and electoral wins very much remains to be seen, especially in light of the fact that Russian influence is already spiking across social medial like Facebook and Twitter. 

But democrats are certainly seeing positive trends on the generic ballot (“would you rather vote for the republican or the Democrat to represent your district all other things being equal?”). That advantage is somewhat consistently in the double digits lately, but the election is still 100 days away and that could easily change / that seeming advantage could quickly evaporate in this world where the news cycle seems flip every 100 seconds. 

You know, I've been more interested in US politics than I have the UK's lately. It seems like it's more important atm. I do hope the Republicans lose their Senate majority in November.

[MigL]

Democrats ( and Republicans who don't support D Trump ) need a slogan...

"Make the World like America again"

[John Cuthber]

2 hours ago, MigL said:

"Make the World like America again"

Please don't: We don't want to be like America.

[Silvestru]

4 hours ago, MigL said:

"Make the World like America again"

When did the world ever like America?

Focus on Global average. But also check the only 2 countries on this list who do love America. Nigeria and Kenya. After all the racism, police brutality against black people and all the other stuff,  Nigeria and Kenya are the only countries on this list that appear to have a positive opinion about US. (according to this debatable poll) 

[Scott of the Antares]

As with most countries, the populace are individually nice and collectively productive, but the leaders are generally asshats.

Let’s not forget America has a great history of interfering with the leadership of countries all over the world; now the shoe is on the other foot, it’s the biggest crime in humanity.

In the interest of fairness I’ll say that us Brits haven’t had a great past when it comes to others sovereignty either!

Edited August 1, 2018 by Scott of the Antares

[swansont]

2 hours ago, Silvestru said:

When did the world ever like America?

A poll from 2017 does not match the question. How about one from 2013, or other non-Trump years? There have been many stories about how the US's standing has dropped since Trump took over.

 

Here is a conglomeration of past polls going back to 2002

http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/1/survey/all/

Almost every country saw a drop in US favorability after Trump was elected. Russia is a notable exception. But there are a lot of favorable opinions in there, at least during the Obama presidency (note how it tends to drop as Bush's time in office increased)

 

The overall favorability was close to 50% under Obama, with approval greater than disapproval, so there are a bunch of countries that liked the US

https://news.gallup.com/poll/225761/world-approval-leadership-drops-new-low.aspx

 

 

 

[Ten oz]

9 hours ago, iNow said:

I assume this was in addition to my point, not in opposition to it, correct?

Of course

9 hours ago, iNow said:

Intensity is a barameter for voter turnout. Intensity is what drives people to wait in line at the ballot and to offer rides to their neighbors and help people register in the months prior.

Democrats earn more votes yet win less seats. Standing around in line isn't enough. It is great to see a lot of people showing interest in politics for the first time but while many of them are carrying on about Medicare for all and BUI Republicans are moving polling stations, changing the registration laws, are in court fighting for illegal districting practices  , and etc. It isn't enough to show up. One needs to understand what specifically they are showing up for and thus far I don't see it on the left the way I do on the right. 

[Silvestru]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

A poll from 2017 does not match the question. How about one from 2013, or other non-Trump years? There have been many stories about how the US's standing has dropped since Trump took over.

Here is a conglomeration of past polls going back to 2002

http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/1/survey/all/

Almost every country saw a drop in US favorability after Trump was elected. Russia is a notable exception. But there are a lot of favorable opinions in there, at least during the Obama presidency (note how it tends to drop as Bush's time in office increased)

The overall favorability was close to 50% under Obama, with approval greater than disapproval, so there are a bunch of countries that liked the US

https://news.gallup.com/poll/225761/world-approval-leadership-drops-new-low.aspx

 

I agree, it was a cheap red herring on my part but just over 50% is still not "love". Let's hold a similar poll for a country that is less full of itself like Croatia, New Zealand, Canada.

I'm sure (just speculating ) that they will have better results.

[iNow]

21 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Democrats earn more votes yet win less seats. Standing around in line isn't enough. It is great to see a lot of people showing interest in politics for the first time but while many of them are carrying on about Medicare for all and BUI Republicans are moving polling stations, changing the registration laws, are in court fighting for illegal districting practices  , and etc. It isn't enough to show up. 

I have to agree. Stop taking knives to gun fights... Or, more accurately: Stop taking plastic butter knives to assault rifle and missile fights.

[Ten oz]

8 hours ago, StringJunky said:

You know, I've been more interested in US politics than I have the UK's lately. It seems like it's more important atm. I do hope the Republicans lose their Senate majority in November.

Republicans have have only won the popular once in the last 7 Presidential elections (2004). In 2012 Republicans won more congressional seats despite receiving less votes. In 2014 Republicans won a slim majority of votes but picked up 60% of available seats that year. They way our system is set up Democrats would need to beat Republicans by about 11% of the vote this year to win back the House. For the Senate the uphill climb is even  worse. Unfortunately Republicans do not need more votes than Democrats to maintain their majority. Rather they just need to avoid losing by a whole lot of votes. 

Edited August 1, 2018 by Ten oz

[iNow]

8 hours ago, StringJunky said:

You know, I've been more interested in US politics than I have the UK's lately. 

Some of this is surely because it’s been turned into a reality tv show by a reality tv star. Survivor and the Kardashians have always been more popular than C-Span and NPR and ratings drive news cycles

[swansont]

2 hours ago, Silvestru said:

I agree, it was a cheap red herring on my part but just over 50% is still not "love". Let's hold a similar poll for a country that is less full of itself like Croatia, New Zealand, Canada.

I'm sure (just speculating ) that they will have better results.

It was "like" and having your favorables beat out your unfavorables is a reasonable metric.

I have no doubt that these other countries would poll higher, just on the basis that such countries are less involved on the world stage.  

 

edit: that same BBC poll from back in 2012-2013

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22624104

(Sorry, Croatia and New Zealand are not included) 

 

and again from the BBC poll, the US numbers from Bush II's first term — much worse

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2008/0402/p01s13-woeu.html

[MigL]

I happen to like America, and what it stands for.

I can hate an Administration and its policies, but I think America will eventually come to its senses.
And although they may stick their nose where it doesn't belong, from time to time, I can't think of another country that has helped others as much as the US over the last century.

[Phi for All]

6 minutes ago, MigL said:

I can't think of another country that has helped others as much as the US over the last century.

This, THIS sentiment, which I hope is still held around the world others like you MigL, is what the Cheat-O can NEVER appreciate. It's numbers only to him, and the Russian oligarchs have lots of zeros for him to play with. 

[Ten oz]

Court filings yesterday (Dec. 7th 18') show that Trump's former personal Lawyer of 11yrs Michael Cohen was in contact with Russians offering to assist the Trump campaign starting early as November of 2015. These are not matters of speculation. Cohen has been a cooperative witness. Cohen has already entered guilty pleas. 

Quote

 

"A Russian national who claimed ties to the Kremlin told President Trump’s personal attorney, Michael Cohen, as early as November 2015 that he could use his Russian government connections to help Trump’s business and political prospects.

The new Russia contact was revealed Friday by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, as he outlined cooperation that Cohen has provided the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election."

"In a separate filing, however, Mueller said Cohen has “gone to significant lengths” to aid the investigation of Russian involvement in the 2016 election. Prosecutors said his information had helped explain his interactions with Russian interests, as well as information related to what they called “certain discrete Russia-related matters core” to the investigation that he learned through regular contact with executives of Trump’s business. They said he was also able to provide information about contacts with White House officials after Trump took office and the circumstances that surrounded the preparation of his false testimony to Congress."

Link

 

 

[Ten oz]

Now that the scale of Russian interference in both the U.S. 2016 election and Brexit Putin has jumped in complaining that the will of voted is being "disrespected". One really can't make this stuff up. 

Quote

 

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has accused the UK and US political classes of "disrespecting" the public by questioning the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump's election.

"They don't want to recognise [Mr Trump's] victory. That's disrespect of voters," he said. Link

 

 

[iNow]

There’s a key tenet in propaganda: Accuse the other of that which you are doing. 

[MigL]

And threatening nuclear war because the US is pulling out of treaties which the Russians have been ignoring for years.
Yet we have so much disdain for our leaders ( some undoubtedly justified ) that a lot of us tend to believe this aggressive bully.

[MonDie]

19 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Now that the scale of Russian interference in both the U.S. 2016 election and Brexit Putin has jumped in complaining that the will of voted is being "disrespected". One really can't make this stuff up. 

 

Russian elite influence.  Income as GDP per capita is increasing, but income inequality is increasing too.  Sadly, one proponent of  economic globalization, France's Macron, is still biased toward his elite pals.   Putin was among the many wealthy elites implicated in the Panama Papers, elites whose offshore "shell companies" were actually tax havens sometimes used for money laundering.  In contrast, RT America is a Russian, state-run, news outlet that still provides a critical portrait of other countries (e.g. the United States), which isn't necessarily propoganda.  Meanwhile, the mainstream american media has largely ignored the influence of the Koch brothers.  If this collusion is merely more elitist cahoots, the victims are the weak and powerless.  The consequences for the Yemeni people may be the most dire of all.

Credit to TYT, and moontanman, who posted TYT at some point.

and Al Jazeera, etc. etc.

Edited December 21, 2018 by MonDie

[Airbrush]

On ‎12‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 6:59 PM, iNow said:

There’s a key tenet in propaganda: Accuse the other of that which you are doing. 

That is similar to "projection" in psychology.  Trump always calls Hillary Clinton "Crooked Hillary" or just plain "Crooked" because he knows he is crooked so he denies that within himself and he feels compelled to constantly, publicly attribute it to someone else, especially his main opponent.

[Janus]

10 hours ago, Airbrush said:

That is similar to "projection" in psychology.  Trump always calls Hillary Clinton "Crooked Hillary" or just plain "Crooked" because he knows he is crooked so he denies that within himself and he feels compelled to constantly, publicly attribute it to someone else, especially his main opponent.

I had a boss that was the epitome of that.  Was so concerned with the prevention of theft that it was almost an obsession.  In the end, it turned out that he was misusing funds for personal use. 

Edited December 26, 2018 by Janus