Trump Slump

[EdEarl]

 

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Donald Trump’s rhetoric and policies have scared foreign tourists away from the U.S., costing $4.6 billion and 40,000 jobs in the process, NBC News is reporting.

Ever since Trump was inaugurated in January 2017, the so-called “Trump Slump” has hurt the U.S. tourism industry. A year later, the numbers are in: a 3.3 percent drop in foreign tourism spending, a 4 percent drop in inbound travel, and $4.6 billion in lost spending, which translates to a loss of 40,000 American jobs.

What’s more, the U.S., once the second-most popular country for foreign tourism (France has held the No. 1 spot for years), is now third, behind Spain.

Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics, said that Donald Trump is essentially scaring away foreign tourists.

It's hard to get an accurate estimate of job creation and demise. Does anyone know of a good source for [math] \Delta [/math]jobs.

[iNow]

EPI does good work: https://www.epi.org/

[StringJunky]

Here's a piece of data in Reuters today:

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Hung out to dry twice, Tennessee city stumped by Trump's washer tariffs

The move threatens to stunt the launch of a new LG Electronics (066570.KS) washing machine factory under construction in Clarksville, just four years after the U.S.-China trade fight over solar panels scuttled a nearby $1.2 billion Hemlock Semiconductor polysilicon plant.

“It’s like déjà vu for Clarksville, to say ‘how can this be happening twice to us,'” the city’s mayor, Kim McMillan, told Reuters.

She said that the city government was scrambling to help the South Korean manufacturer accelerate its production launch by ensuring that utilities and infrastructure are quickly put in place at the factory site and expediting approvals.

“We’ve got to do whatever we can to make sure that LG is able to still open their facility and hire people,” McMillan added. “We don’t want to see a repeat of what happened with Hemlock where they can’t open the plant.”

At stake is an appliance manufacturing complex that could eventually employ thousands of workers and which the state of Tennessee and the local community supported with some $23 million in grants. The 310-acre (1.25 square kilometer) site an hour north of Nashville has room for three additional buildings identical to the plant’s $250 million, 600-job first phase.

Trump’s decision to impose 20 percent to 50 percent tariffs on washer imports and parts has local officials asking what his “America First” stands for: supporting all U.S. manufacturing jobs or just favoring traditional American brands over foreign rivals. Labor statistics show that foreign companies have been the source of the majority of new manufacturing jobs since the 2009 recession.

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And in a region where support for Trump runs deep, they are wondering why he would use tariffs to favor Whirlpool and GE Appliances, now owned by China’s Haier Electronics Group (1165.HK), over a competitor moving production to Tennessee.

“I think it goes against what (Trump) has talked about doing and that’s bringing jobs back to America,” said Durrett, the county mayor and a Republican.

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[Ten oz]

Trump hasn't even passed a Budget yet and the tax cuts haven't been law long enough to to have impacted anything either way. The strength of the U.S. Dollar was down 10% in 2017, GDP for the final quarter of the year fell short of the 2.9% expectations and well short of Trump's goal of 4%, less jobs were created in 2017 than in 2016, but the stock market just keeps climbing. 

One major change is the way the economy is being discussed. To prevent Obama from getting credit Republicans insisted the economy was terrible throughout his time in office. Now that Trump is in office they applaud the economy. So without a major party complaining around the clock about the economy it is seems everyone finally agrees the economy is okay. That along with the tax cuts, changes to military retirement, and the promise of deregulation has the stock market soaring. Typically bad news like failing to meet GDP expectations cause the market to dip yet it just raced right along past that information.  I am not sure what it all means. With the tax cuts in effect and a budget in place (maybe) 2018 should provide better insight regarding what impacts Trump is or is not having on our economy. 

 

- U.S.Dollar is down  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/us-dollar-slammed-as-mnuchin-abandons-strong-dollar-mantra.html

-GDP for the 4th quarter  https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/26/business/economy/gdp-economy.html

-Job creation by year https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth