67 Democrat Senators

[Airbrush]

The impeachment process requires a simple majority of House members to vote for impeachment of a president.  That is not too difficult to attain in the next midterm elections.  The hard part is getting 67 senators to vote against the president and that can only happen if there are at least that many democrat senators after the midterm elections.  That means flipping about 20 senate seats from republican to democrat.  Not an easy task, but is it possible?   Looks like we are stuck with Trump until the 2020 elections.

"At the federal level, the impeachment process is a two-step procedure. The House of Representatives must first pass, by a simple majority of those present and voting, articles of impeachment, which constitute the formal allegation or allegations. Upon passage, the defendant has been "impeached". Next, the Senate tries the accused.

"To convict the accused, "the concurrence of two thirds of the [senate] members present" is required.^[35] Conviction removes the defendant from office. Following conviction, the Senate may vote to further punish the individual by barring him or her from holding future federal office, elected or appointed."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment#Process

[Ten oz]

Is this thread about how to impeach Trump or about how many seats Democrats can realistically gain in the 2018 midterms? The 2 issues are not the same. Even is Democrats had  the majority in the House and all 100 Senate seats there is no guarantee Trump would be impeached. 

[Airbrush]

18 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Is this thread about how to impeach Trump or about how many seats Democrats can realistically gain in the 2018 midterms? The 2 issues are not the same. Even is Democrats had  the majority in the House and all 100 Senate seats there is no guarantee Trump would be impeached. 

Because of party loyalty, it seems obvious that republicans will never vote to impeach Trump.  This has nothing to do with guarantees, only a higher probability is more accurate.  Impeachment seems impossible unless Dems have at least a 2/3 majority in the Senate.  A simple majority of Dems in the House after the midterms is likely.  But to flip 20% of Senate seats from GOP to Democrat looks like a tall order, so get used to another 3 years of Trump, unless there is some miracle.

What would it take for a Republican to vote for impeachment?  Trump shooting someone on 5th Avenue?  Maybe not.

[Ten oz]

13 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

Because of party loyalty, it seems obvious that republicans will never vote to impeach Trump.  This has nothing to do with guarantees, only a higher probability is more accurate.  Impeachment seems impossible unless Dems have at least a 2/3 majority in the Senate.  A simple majority of Dems in the House after the midterms is likely.  But to flip 20% of Senate seats from GOP to Democrat looks like a tall order, so get used to another 3 years of Trump, unless there is some miracle.

What would it take for a Republican to vote for impeachment?  Trump shooting someone on 5th Avenue?  Maybe not.

It really all depends on what the precipice is that begins serious impeachment discussion. Republican Senators like Corker, Graham, McCain, Rubio, Cruz, Collins, Paul, and etc have all pushed back against Trump when it suited them. In the House Ryan and the Tea Party Caucus has as well. If it was in the best interest of certain Republicans to vote to impeach Trump I believe they would. Key words being that it must be in their best interests and not necessarily the best interest of the nation.  

The Mueller investigation has not been riddled with leaks. The public has limited insight regarding the evidence Mueller has collected or the charges which will be coming. Trump's supporters (the Republican base) have already come to peace with Obstruction of Justice and Russian Collusion; they're over them and don't care. So Trump being indicted for either probably would not move a single Republican to vote impeachment. However we do not know if that is the limit of what Mueller has found. Mueller has looked into Trump's financials among other things and there could end up being indictments related to any number of other crimes. Crimes which partisans have not already exhausted themselves debating. New revaluations have the potential to cause many Republicans to abandon ship. The Mueller investigation is a huge X factor.

To the second part of your topic; I do not believe Democrats will win enough seats to control either the House or Senate. Following the midterms Democrats will remain the minority party in the House and Senate. On the Senate side Democrats have 24 Senate seats up for election to just 8 Republican seats. Even if Democrats ran the table and won every race they would only have 57 seats which still isn't even enough to break a filibuster.  Obviously they will not win every race. AZ and NV are the only 2 Republican Senate seats Democrats have a strong chance to flip. Meanwhile Republicans have a good shot at flipping Democratic seats in WV, IN, and MO. In Senate races Democrats will need lots  to go right just for them to avoid losses.As for House races districts are so heavily gerrymandered I don't expect nearly enough to flip one way or the other to impact the balance of power.

 

 

[Airbrush]

On ‎2‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 10:19 AM, Ten oz said:

It really all depends on what the precipice is that begins serious impeachment discussion. Republican Senators like Corker, Graham, McCain, Rubio, Cruz, Collins, Paul, and etc have all pushed back against Trump when it suited them. In the House Ryan and the Tea Party Caucus has as well. If it was in the best interest of certain Republicans to vote to impeach Trump I believe they would. Key words being that it must be in their best interests and not necessarily the best interest of the nation.

Yes, it may be that Trump is the wrecking ball of the GOP.  They are now careful to not criticize Trump, but only up to a tipping point.  Maybe the tax cut is what they were mostly looking for, mission accomplished, and now ANY other GOP candidate can take the baton.  Trump was a convenient idiot who they could manipulate by flattery, but he may have already served his purpose and may be disposed of.  We don't know what Mueller knows and it may be that well in advance of the midterms Mueller will release enough to cripple Trump.  Even though the Dems never get a majority in the House, nor a 2/3 majority in the Senate, there may be enough Republicans in congress that would vote to remove Trump from office after the midterms.

[Ten oz]

My guess is Trump is not impeached but is indicted for crimes by Mueller.  Then in 2020 he stands as good a chance of being re-elected as he stood to be elected in the first place. 

[Airbrush]

Don't you think the anti-Trump forces will have more voter turnout in 2020 than in 2016?  When you add in "MeToo" and four, long, eventful years of Trump-created crises, it will exhaust more voters than in 2016.  Trump will have done his job, to tear everything apart and reverse Obama.  Then the GOP will choose someone inspiring who can govern.

[Ten oz]

14 hours ago, Airbrush said:

Don't you think the anti-Trump forces will have more voter turnout in 2020 than in 2016?  When you add in "MeToo" and four, long, eventful years of Trump-created crises, it will exhaust more voters than in 2016.  Trump will have done his job, to tear everything apart and reverse Obama.  Then the GOP will choose someone inspiring who can govern.

Trump gets caught bold face lying a couple times a week. Below are a couple examples from this week alone. Meanwhile his approval rating is 41%. That might seem low but he only won 46% of the popular vote in the first place. That means 90% of those who initially supported him still approve. That is actually a very high number when one considers the narrative that many voted Trump simply to vote against Hillary Clinton. If that were true I would suspect he'd lost at least a third of his support by now with all the revaluations we have had regarding Russia, lack of qualified staff, lies, and etc yet that isn't the case. His support remains very strong among his base. They support him unequivocally and were not merely voting against Clinton. 

The MeToo movement like the BLM movement before it is already drawing backlash. The words "witch hunt " are starting to be tossed around. I think among certain conservative groups the MeToo movement will rally them to turn out and vote Trump just as BLM was for many rural conservative bigots. As for the GOP choosing someone who can govern; that isn't a goal of theirs. Republicans don't believe people should be governed. At least not rich people. They believe in a wild west styled free for all where one can do as they please. If you are poor, oh well, work harder to get rich. If you are rich, applause, you earned it. So to answer your question I do not think anything has happened yet which will beneficially increase voter opposition against Trump. 

A couple of this weeks exposed lies:

"A personal lawyer for President Donald Trump told NBC News on Tuesday night that he paid $130,000 to pornographic film star Stormy Daniels, who has in the past said she had an affair with Trump. In a statement late Tuesday, the lawyer, Michael Cohen, confirmed a report in The New York Times that he made the payment to Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, a month before the 2016 presidential election."Neither the Trump Organization nor the Trump campaign was a party to the transaction with Ms. Clifford, and neither reimbursed me for the payment, either directly or indirectly," Cohen said."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-s-lawyer-michael-cohen-says-he-paid-stormy-daniels-n847866

 

"FBI Director Christopher A. Wray testified Tuesday that a background check on former White House staff secretary Rob Porter was completed months before he resigned over domestic abuse accusations — contradicting accounts given by the White House in recent days. Mr. Wray told the Senate Intelligence Committee that the FBI submitted a partial report on Mr. Porter in March 2017, and a completed background investigation in late July. He said the White House requested follow-ups, and the FBI finished that inquiry in November. “We administratively closed the file in January,” Mr. Wray said, although he added that the FBI gave “additional information” this month to the White House. He didn’t elaborate. His testimony seems to conflict with the White House, which said the background check into Mr. Porter was still ongoing as late as last week, when two of his ex-wives publicly accused him of abuse. As White House staff secretary, "

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/feb/13/christopher-wray-contradicts-white-house-timing-ba/

[Raider5678]

31 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Trump gets caught bold face lying a couple times a week. Below are a couple examples from this week alone. Meanwhile, his approval rating is 41%. That might seem low but he only won 46% of the popular vote in the first place. That means 90% of those who initially supported him still approve. That is actually a very high number when one considers the narrative that many voted Trump simply to vote against Hillary Clinton. If that were true I would suspect he'd lost at least a third of his support by now with all the evaluations we have had regarding Russia, lack of qualified staff, lies, and etc yet that isn't the case. His support remains very strong among his base. They support him unequivocally and were not merely voting against Clinton. 

 

Have you ever heard the term "Figures don't lie, but liars figure?"

 

Those are often anonymous online polls.

Not sure how accurately you can rely on that.

 

 

[Ten oz]

23 minutes ago, Raider5678 said:

Have you ever heard the term "Figures don't lie, but liars figure?"

 

Those are often anonymous online polls.

Not sure how accurately you can rely on that.

 

 

The average of all polling on election day had Trump at 43.6 and Clinton at 46.8 (Clinton +3.2). The election ended up 48.2 Clinton to 46.1 Trump (Clinton +2.1). Polls were basically accurate within their margin of error. Currently Trump's approval is 41%. It is fair to assume, based on the long term performance of polls, 41% is accurate give or take a point. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html