USA pulling out of Iran deal

[CharonY]

So, the US is unilaterally pulling out of the Iran deal that was designed to keep Iran from developing nuclear capabilities. As it stands, pretty much all the other signees (UK, Germany. France, China, Russia) are committed to continue. Although Iran has signaled that it would adhere to the terms, there are worries that the deal may be undercut. If the deal is falling apart, there is no reason for Iran to adhere to nuclear restrictions.

Also, so far the US has not indicated what they want to see in its place, nor what the actual consequences are going to be, once they are out. Theoretically, the US may sanction companies from other countries if they continue dealings with Iran under the existing deal. It is worrisome that the US decided to invoke a new crisis in the Middle East- seemingly without a coherent strategy (especially not long-term)

 

[iNow]

Saw this. So. Stupid. Talk about sacrificing the good in pursuit of the perfect.

[CharonY]

3 minutes ago, iNow said:

Saw this. So. Stupid. Talk about sacrificing the good in pursuit of the perfect.

Though it is not clear that a path to perfect exists, even in theory. The overall goal seemingly is to topple the Iranian regime. But I think by now folks should have realized that it is not that trivial. Even worse, it would lead to serious destabilization and we have seen what the results of that are...

[StringJunky]

14 minutes ago, CharonY said:

Though it is not clear that a path to perfect exists, even in theory. The overall goal seemingly is to topple the Iranian regime. But I think by now folks should have realized that it is not that trivial. Even worse, it would lead to serious destabilization and we have seen what the results of that are...

As we know from our own memories, attempts at regime change cause more problems than they solve. I would like see the rest of the signatories ameliorate US sanctions by filling in any trade gaps that they create, so that the sanctions don't have so much effect on Iran. I consider this deal as a matter of our collective honour and Trump has broken it.

[Sensei]

D.T. wants to be remembered as one of the greatest disruptors of current times...

 

[koti]

Gas 2 Euro per litre starting this fall.

[Phi for All]

And once again, the US leaves its seat at the leadership table like this is a real estate deal gone bad. 

To me, this is a showcase of Trump's biggest faults. It shows his hypocrisy in using fake news to promote his agenda while blaming others for it, his ignorance about foreign policy, his petty need to destroy everything Obama built, and his insistence on making snap decisions emotionally without considering counsel or context in order to gaslight everyone into thinking he knows what he's doing.

[StringJunky]

"“I believe that the decision to put the JCPOA at risk without any Iranian violation of the deal is a serious mistake,” Obama said in a statement." - Reuters

[CharonY]

42 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

As we know from our own memories, attempts at regime change cause more problems than they solve. I would like see the rest of the signatories ameliorate US sanctions by filling in any trade gaps that they create, so that the sanctions don't have so much effect on Iran. I consider this deal as a matter of our collective honour and Trump has broken it.

The thing is that theoretically the US could impose sanctions on international companies that continue to have dealings with Iran. If they do, it would deepen the rift between the US and its partners. If they don't, their withdrawal has no real bite.

Also, it sends the signal to everyone that any dealings with the US cannot be taken in good faith. 

Edited May 8, 2018 by CharonY

[Ten oz]

This hurts our (USA) credibility. Regimes will be more hesitant the make any concessions in the future due to our inner Political divisiveness rendering us undependable. 

[StringJunky]

7 minutes ago, CharonY said:

The thing is that theoretically the US could impose sanctions on international companies that continue to have dealings with Iran. If they do, it would deepen the rift between the US and its partners. If they don't, their withdrawal has no real bite.

Also, it sends the signal to everyone that any dealings with the US cannot be taken in good faith. 

I have a vague recollection reading recently that the US wasn't going to do that... it would be a unilateral action and everyone else could do as they wish. 

Yes, exactly. The best one can hope for is that everyone sees this presidency as an anomaly and will grit their teeth until he's gone... in the meantime exercising damage limitation.

[CharonY]

7 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

I have a vague recollection reading recently that the US wasn't going to do that... it would be a unilateral action and everyone else could do as they wish. 

My reading is a bit different, especially with regard to the secondary sanctions. From the New York Times:

Quote

By Monday, the White House began informing allies that Mr. Trump was going to withdraw from the deal and reimpose oil sanctions and secondary sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran.

Mr. Trump has also instructed the Treasury Department to develop additional sanctions against Iran, a process that could take several weeks. Under the financial sanctions, European companies will have between 90 days and 180 days to wind down their operations in Iran, or they will run afoul of the American banking system. The oil sanctions will require European and Asian countries to reduce their imports from Iran.

Though I suppose the specifics will come to light eventually.

Edited May 8, 2018 by CharonY

[StringJunky]

8 minutes ago, CharonY said:

My reading is a bit different, especially with regard to the secondary sanctions. From the New York Times:

Though I suppose the specifics will come to light eventually.

Right, hopefully Trump will be ignored by Europe on that because it would be  blatant bullying. My thoughts are more like a sailor's atm but I''ll keep it restrained.

Edited May 8, 2018 by StringJunky

[Phi for All]

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

This hurts our (USA) credibility. Regimes will be more hesitant the make any concessions in the future due to our inner Political divisiveness rendering us undependable. 

It's also going to hurt the very people Trump claims he cares for when gas prices rise at the pump due to half a million fewer barrels of oil per day from Iran (goodbye to any gains you made from the GOP tax cuts!). But raising gas prices will help him push more drilling, and make the extremists he really cares for happy.

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, Ten oz said:

This hurts our (USA) credibility. Regimes will be more hesitant the make any concessions in the future due to our inner Political divisiveness rendering us undependable. 

N.Korea will be sceptical now, It's clear the US can't be trusted. i know it's this administrations fault but a lot of outside people are just  going to see the US as one political entity and this is what it thinks. The Iranians, to their credit, are going to sit on it and see how it pans with the rest of us. This is subject to Rhouhani being able to keep his internal problems under control, of course.

Edited May 8, 2018 by StringJunky

[CharonY]

So the international response is interesting. The US ambassador to Germany has demanded that German companies should wind down operations, whereas the president of the German Industrial association called for a clear commitment by the EU, Russia and China. 

Saudi Arabia and Israel are quite happy about that decision, which is a novelty. Rouhani's position is now weakened, which, in the worst case, could open the way for hardliners. I mean, in the end it could be kind of a strategy.

By playing hardball, it forces everyone to negotiate because the US cannot be trusted to be a mediator anymore. I.e. it ultimately makes everyone else seem to be the rational actor. In the long run it is unlikely to improve the US' standing in the world though. 

[Ten oz]

12 hours ago, StringJunky said:

N.Korea will be sceptical now, It's clear the US can't be trusted. i know it's this administrations fault but a lot of outside people are just  going to see the US as one political entity and this is what it thinks. The Iranians, to their credit, are going to sit on it and see how it pans with the rest of us. This is subject to Rhouhani being able to keep his internal problems under control, of course.

One entity or several it shows that we (USA) cannot be trusted. Not just Trump but the U.S. as a whole has been exposed as vulnerable. Despite the majority of U.S. citizens wanting us to stay with the Iran Deal there will probably be little to no political price paid by Trump for pulling out. How can even our allies interpret this? It is my govt and my fellow citizens and I don't even understand the separation between what we claim to believe vs allow/choose to do. 

Quote

 

(CNN)Almost two-thirds of Americans -- 63% -- believe that the US should not withdraw from the agreement made with Iran to prevent the country from developing nuclear weapons. Only 29% believe the US should withdraw, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/08/politics/poll-iran-agreement/index.html

 

 

[StringJunky]

35 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

One entity or several it shows that we (USA) cannot be trusted. Not just Trump but the U.S. as a whole has been exposed as vulnerable. Despite the majority of U.S. citizens wanting us to stay with the Iran Deal there will probably be little to no political price paid by Trump for pulling out. How can even our allies interpret this? It is my govt and my fellow citizens and I don't even understand the separation between what we claim to believe vs allow/choose to do. 

 

I think everyone outside that is outside accepts that this is a Trump action and not supported by most sensible Americans. From the BBC:

Quote

There were furious scenes in the Iranian parliament, with members burning an American flag and the speaker reportedly saying Mr Trump lacked "mental capacity". 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44049532

At least they know he's thick. As far this goes:

Quote

US National Security Adviser John Bolton is reported as saying that European companies doing business in Iran will have to stop doing so within six months or face US sanctions.

I hope this will be ignored by all the signatories and we carry on as we have. 

[Ten oz]

19 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

I think everyone outside that is outside accepts that this is a Trump action and not supported by most sensible Americans. From the BBC:

If you are Kim Jung-un, Bashar Al-Assad, Hassan Rouhani, Xi Jinping, or etc can you afford to distinguish  between the two? 

[StringJunky]

7 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

If you are Kim Jung-un, Bashar Al-Assad, Hassan Rouhani, Xi Jinping, or etc can you afford to distinguish  between the two? 

No. This what the US is doing right now and they must respond.

[CharonY]

2 hours ago, StringJunky said:

I hope this will be ignored by all the signatories and we carry on as we have. 

So basically hours after the new ambassador to Germany started his position, he made the same demands (as mentioned above) and got rebuked by Germany (obviously). Way to start a relationship...

[StringJunky]

41 minutes ago, CharonY said:

So basically hours after the new ambassador to Germany started his position, he made the same demands (as mentioned above) and got rebuked by Germany (obviously). Way to start a relationship...

Well, Trump is picking the people that think like him or are spineless enough to do as he says.

[CharonY]

2 hours ago, StringJunky said:

Well, Trump is picking the people that think like him or are spineless enough to do as he says.

Well, competence does not seem to be high on that list of desirable traits. Looking at the new ambassador to Germany or perhaps even worse, the ambassador to the Netherlands, they pretty much fail on what they are supposed to do: diplomatic engagement. 

 

[John Cuthber]

There's a summary here

 

 

[Endy0816]

I hate to say it, but I'm kind of hoping rest of the world starts bucking our sanctions.