solutions to overpopulation

[Itoero]

3 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

But you said (in essence) religious people are more fertile and religious belief is a social reason

NO. Religious people have on average a higher fertility rate...that doesn't mean they are more fertile. Religious belief is related to social behavior but that's very relative.

[DrP]

6 minutes ago, Itoero said:

I just base myself on Wikipedia. I don't understand why people deny the relationship religion-fertility rate.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

That suggests it has more to do with the advancement of each individual country over what religion it is no? Surly the religion is just happenstance.  This is also current I think (from brief glance)...  rates have changed  -  100 - 200 years ago in the UK it wasn't uncommon to have 12 kids. This is unheard of now  -  I don't think religion has had anything to do with the change (although there is less of it these days).

[Strange]

6 minutes ago, Itoero said:

I just base myself on Wikipedia. I don't understand why people deny the relationship religion-fertility rate.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

I am not denying there may be a correlation, what I am disputing is cause and effect.

But from your link:

Quote

For instance, at a global level, religion is correlated with increased fertility, but in the West less so: Scandinavian countries and France are among the least religious in the EU, but have the highest TFR, while the opposite is true about Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Poland and Spain

So there is no simple correlation between religion and fertility rate. Guess what: it is more complicated than that.

[StringJunky]

6 minutes ago, Itoero said:

NO. Religious people have on average a higher fertility rate...that doesn't mean they are more fertile. Religious belief is related to social behavior but that's very relative.

You've lost me.

[Itoero]

2 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

7 minutes ago, Itoero said:

rate

I think you would be on far better ground if you said "Religious people exhibit a higher birth rate", which doesn't have to be associated with fertility.

Ok.Religious folk have on a average a higher birth rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_population_growth  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_religion

[dimreepr]

11 minutes ago, Itoero said:

I don't understand why people deny the relationship religion-fertility rate.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

 

Because not everyone is so determined to blame all the woes of the world on religion.

You've yet to explain why a higher fertility rate is such a problem. 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=sH9YW8KnGoaL6ASX16Qo&q=why+is+low+fertility+rate+a+problem&oq=why+is+low+fer&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0l2j0i22i30k1l8.414814.426163.0.430394.16.12.0.3.3.0.179.1220.1j10.12.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..1.15.1419.6..35i39k1j0i131k1.87.cLCRh2mNBJg

 

[StringJunky]

6 minutes ago, Itoero said:

Ok.Religious folk have on a average a higher birth rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_population_growth  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_religion

You are on much sturdier ground with this. Forget about fertility.

Edited July 25, 2018 by StringJunky

[Itoero]

12 minutes ago, Strange said:

am not denying there may be a correlation, what I am disputing is cause and effect.

I can explain why it's cause and effect but you'll deny it.

And what does it even matter you deny causation?? The correlation is there, regardless if you think it's causation or not.

14 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

You've lost me.

I'll send a searchparty.

[Strange]

5 minutes ago, Itoero said:

I can explain why it's cause and effect but you'll deny it.

Not if you provide evidence.

6 minutes ago, Itoero said:

And what does it even matter you deny causation?? The correlation is there, regardless if you think it's causation or not.

Because, to the rational, there is a big difference between things being correlated and thing being causes. Did you look at the Spurious Correlations link? Some of them are even funnier than you.

[dimreepr]

4 minutes ago, Itoero said:

I know.

Since this, unproductive, tangent seems to have run its course, can we get back to the topic?

Eternal growth in a finite system provides its own solutions, whether we like it or not.

[Itoero]

13 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

Because not everyone is so determined to blame all the woes of the world on religion.

You've yet to explain why a higher fertility rate is such a problem. 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=sH9YW8KnGoaL6ASX16Qo&q=why+is+low+fertility+rate+a+problem&oq=why+is+low+fer&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0l2j0i22i30k1l8.414814.426163.0.430394.16.12.0.3.3.0.179.1220.1j10.12.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..1.15.1419.6..35i39k1j0i131k1.87.cLCRh2mNBJg

 

Because the higher birth rate of religion implies that most population growth is due to religion….population growth can lead to overpopulation. According to a religious forecast for 2050 by Pew Research Center the percentage of the world's population that unaffiliated or Nonreligious is expected to drop, from 16% of the world's total population in 2010 to 13% in 2050

[dimreepr]

1 minute ago, Itoero said:

Because the higher birth rate of religion implies that most population growth is due to religion….population growth can lead to overpopulation. According to a religious forecast for 2050 by Pew Research Center the percentage of the world's population that unaffiliated or Nonreligious is expected to drop, from 16% of the world's total population in 2010 to 13% in 2050

And the problem is?

[Itoero]

17 minutes ago, Strange said:

Not if you provide evidence.

Because, to the rational, there is a big difference between things being correlated and thing being causes. Did you look at the Spurious Correlations link? Some of them are even funnier than you.

It's imo common sense it's causation. I'll try to find the evidence.

1 minute ago, dimreepr said:

And the problem is?

More people that deny science, more terrorism, more sexual terrorism, overpopulation+global warming …..It depends  how you, define 'problem'.

[dimreepr]

9 minutes ago, Itoero said:

It's imo common sense it's causation.

You don't seem to understand that causation and correlation are different words with different meanings, your determination/agenda has little effect on either.

11 minutes ago, Itoero said:

More people that deny science, more terrorism, more sexual terrorism, overpopulation+global warming …..It depends  how you, define 'problem'.

 

Your agenda is the problem.

Edited July 25, 2018 by dimreepr

[Itoero]

3 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

You don't seem to understand that causation and correlation are different words with different meanings, your determination has little effect on either.

And you don't understand I do understand. I know why you deny causation.

Here is one paper:

"Using data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), we show that women who report that religion is “very important” in their everyday life have both higher fertility and higher intended fertility than those saying religion is “somewhat important” or “not important.”https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2723861/

[dimreepr]

2 minutes ago, Itoero said:

And you don't understand I do understand. I know why you deny causation.

Do you?  

Did I?

 

[Itoero]

15 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

Do you?  

Did I?

 

Not really no. I assumed you meant it was not causation. My apologies.

Edited July 25, 2018 by Itoero

[dimreepr]

4 minutes ago, Itoero said:

Not really no. I assumed you meant it was not causation.

Since you've yet to explain why it matters, I'm going to assume you have no idea and just want to advance your hate/agenda.

[Itoero]

3 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

Since you've yet to explain why it matters, I'm going to assume you have no idea and just want to advance your hate/agenda.

Huh? There are papers that show religion causes a high birth rate.

People thought there was no causation and people were wrong. I don't want to advance my hate , I just found data on Wikipedia which I presented.

You often make those silly assumptions. A while back you used to say  "you hate religion" if I said something about bad Muslim behavior.

The title "Religion poisons everything" is pretty valid. You pretend not to be religious yet your brain is messed up due to religion.

 

[dimreepr]

21 minutes ago, Itoero said:

Huh? There are papers that show religion causes a high birth rate.

People thought there was no causation and people were wrong. I don't want to advance my hate , I just found data on Wikipedia which I presented.

You often make those silly assumptions. A while back you used to say  "you hate religion" if I said something about bad Muslim behavior.

1

LOL, you're at it again, neg rep because you can't answer a simple question.

21 minutes ago, Itoero said:

The title "Religion poisons everything" is pretty valid. You pretend not to be religious yet your brain is messed up due to religion.

 

So, no agenda here, BTW the title of this thread is... Not that

Edited July 25, 2018 by dimreepr

[swansont]

1 hour ago, Itoero said:

It's imo common sense it's causation. 

Opinion and common sense. The hallmarks of solid science.

Not.

[Itoero]

46 minutes ago, swansont said:

Opinion and common sense. The hallmarks of solid science.

Not.

Read and learn https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2723861/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4875064/

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21469272

[swansont]

11 minutes ago, Itoero said:

Read and learn https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2723861/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4875064/

 

Those cite neither opinion nor common sense in drawing their conclusions.

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, Itoero said:

Huh? There are papers that show religion causes a high birth rate.

People thought there was no causation and people were wrong. I don't want to advance my hate , I just found data on Wikipedia which I presented.

You often make those silly assumptions. A while back you used to say  "you hate religion" if I said something about bad Muslim behavior.

The title "Religion poisons everything" is pretty valid. You pretend not to be religious yet your brain is messed up due to religion.

 

 

A few pages back you acknowledged that economics has a huge effect on birth rates. The former explains the rapid decline of births per mother in many Muslim countries in the last 1-2 decades. As noted, Iran went from one of the countries with the higest birth rates (6 per woman) to less than 1.7 today.  Similar trends are seen e.g. in the UAE. So there is an enormous spread from below or at Western levels (who, btw have also a significant religious population) to above. In almost all cases there are massive declines from ca. 60s onwards).

The problem is that you neglect that point and revert to an absolute "religion causes fertility" based on one data point (current fertility rates). The error in your reasoning is that you fail to understand that this data point is the accumulation of various effects. Rather, you used that one point in time to create a narrative (Islam specifically oppresses women, denies them education and therefore increases number of children). Yet it is entirely based on opinion and completely ignoring socioeconomic and political factors. This is not to say that there are no effects. However, whatever effects religiosity exerts has to be understood under the context of existing socioeconomic conditions. And of course, precisely the same argument can be made for traditional Catholics with conservative gender roles and prohibition of contraceptives. Yet that was never part of your original argument. While you have pruned it down to general religiosity, it kind of blows your own original argument (specifically the role of Islam) out of the water.

To provide an example. Religiousness (though typically only Christianity, specifically Catholicism and Islam, other religions tend not to show up that easily in statistics) is associated with a slight increase in fertility. E.g. in Western countries Christians as well as Muslims have slightly higher fertility rates than unaffiliated or other religions. However, there is again the strong impact of economic status. I.e. high education Christian ans Muslim women have slightly lower number of children than their peers with lower educational attainment. To complicate matters, there is an inverse correlation between educational attainment and religiosity. I.e. women with higher education tend to be less religious (though the matter here is also not quite straightforward).

Birth rates are also coupled with urbanization, a process that has happened in most Western countries quite a while ago but in some Muslim countries only started to increase massively in the last couple of decades.

Another important aspect is demographics. Some of the links you provided are not controlled for age. As Muslim countries had higher birth rates in recent times, they have a larger pool of women in child-bearing age. Essentially you can see the trend precisely as what happens to Europe but delayed, yet with a steeper slope (i.e. faster declining rate). 

Yet another key aspect are policies. In Indonesia the decline of birth rates from ~6 per woman before the 60s to ~2.5 were attributed largely to implementation of family planning whereas the decline in China is attributed to the one-child-policy. 

The issue here really is (as often) highly selective reading based on a pre-built, extremely simplified model of a complex situation, where relevant information is simply discarded if it does not fit.

[Itoero]

2 minutes ago, swansont said:

Those cite neither opinion nor common sense in drawing their conclusions.

so? People should know this, regardless of those papers.

Out of last paper:" A principal finding is that respondents ascribed to their husbands the responsibility for high parity; these women reported deliberately giving birth to many children in order to inhibit men's tendency to divorce or engage in plural marriage."

I pointed to this when I told of the messed up woman emancipation in Islam.