Will a Second Civil War Happen in The US?

[theLegend37]

If Yes, what will it be fought over? If no, why not?

[Sensei]

It's plausible if some politician would like to become dictatorship.. e.g. some party would have to have enough seats in senate and congress to be able change constitution to e.g. indefinitely extend presidential term and/or give him/her supernatural privileges and powers. Minority opposition party would not allow for it, and start rebellion. This is what happened in the Roman Republic twenty centuries ago. One man with too large ego, with too large army and civil support can take entire power in some country, and destroy democracy.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Sensei

[Moontanman]

There is already talk of a third term for PPGOTUS in right wing circles...

[Ten oz]

If we look at History there is basically always a war everywhere at some point. So there is definitely a chance 2nd Civil War in the U.S. at some point, OP doesn't mention a time frame. I do not see one happening in the foreseeable future. The economics at not suitable for a Civil War at the moment. While it is true that there is a hard ideological divided between many of the States all of the most partisan States rely on larger more diverse States. While people in places like Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and etc might be staunchly opposed to the politics of California and Washington State they are also entirely economically dependent upon them. For example the 3 top employers in Idaho are Micron, HP, and Albertsons. Micron and HP are technology companies which operate via Silicon Valley in CA and there are more Albertsons Stores in CA than any other State. Same is true all over the Country. In the South TX and FL and the economic powerhouses. FL is a fairly evenly divided state politically and TX despite its reputation is as well. In the 2016 TX went 52-43 and FL went 48-47. Basically all the economic power housing in the Country CA, WA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA, etc would stay together. During the First Civil War the South had an economy of its own rooted n slavery and agricultural. The South also had strong ideological unity across a vast geographical area which include key logistical locations along the Gulf and Atlantic. Today the strongest ideological divide in terms of geography is in the interior of the Country. They have land by no economic strength of strategic logistical locations. States like the Nebraska, Montana, South Dakota, and etc simple would be able to sustain themselves. During the first world war the South could have sustained itself.  

[iNow]

Most war activity these days is cyber. Viewed through that lens, were already at war with each other, and generally not civilly. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

Yeah. The uncivil war has already begun.

What are the chances Trump does not get the GOP ticket in 2020?

[Kevin Mulisa Isaya]

Already begun since Trump elected to be President,

 

Civil war is now of whites in USA against blacks 

[Ten oz]

20 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Yeah. The uncivil war has already begun.

What are the chances Trump does not get the GOP ticket in 2020?

84% of Republican voters approve of the job Trump is doing which is in line with the normal approval percentage a President receives from their party, Here. Unless something significantly changes in the next year Trump will have no meaningful opposition from the right for the 2020 ticket. Some conservatives in the U.S. pontificate about Trump not being a true or standard conservative but the reality is Trump accurately represents modern conservatism in the U.S. today and his support among conservatives in the U.S. reflects that. Even as many anticipate Democratic wins around the country in the coming mid term elections those Republican candidates who are aggressively embrace Trump are competing better than those who are not. 

As that applies to a civil war; I do not believe we are on the precipice on one. They is a lot of anger and division but as mentioned in my previous post the most partisan states in the U.S. are among the weakest both logistically and economically. The most partisan states in the Nation like West VA where Trump enjoys a 63% approval rating (more than 20 points above the national average) is among the least populated and most poor. During the Civil War in 1861-1865 the North had a strength advantage (# of soldiers) of 2 to 1 and the South a total united geographical front which spanned from VA to TX. Today the strength advantage would be far worse than 2-1 and the only geographical are which might unite is in the interior of the country without any access to ports. A 2nd Civil War today,at least in terms of boots on the ground fighting, currently isn't practical for those most partisan states which might consider succession. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

Thanks Ten oz. So if he is given the boot in 2020 it is probably with his replacement coming from the Democrats?

[Ten oz]

24 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Thanks Ten oz. So if he is given the boot in 2020 it is probably with his replacement coming from the Democrats?

I think so. Not only does Trump have the support of the overwhelming majority of Republican voters but history is on his side. There is only one example of an incumbent U.S. President not getting their party nomination and that was in 1852, Here.

*Edit, more Presidents have been forced out by the threat of impeachment than failure to be re-nominated by their party. 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Ten oz

[zapatos]

On 09/10/2018 at 2:03 PM, Sensei said:

It's plausible if some politician would like to become dictatorship.. e.g. some party would have to have enough seats in senate and congress to be able change constitution to e.g. indefinitely extend presidential term and/or give him/her supernatural privileges and powers. Minority opposition party would not allow for it, and start rebellion. This is what happened in the Roman Republic twenty centuries ago. One man with too large ego, with too large army and civil support can take entire power in some country, and destroy democracy.

It will take more than that.

"The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate."

[Sensei]

@zapatos

Perhaps, zapatos. But dictators-to-be generally piss on laws, constitutions and legislation. As soon as such person would gain enough power (which does not necessarily mean ultimate power at first), would dismantle entire constitution (e.g. render it joke by intercepting court which shall to check whether some law is against it, introducing sockpuppets)..

We have enough examples from recent years. putin, erdogan, xi, to name a few..

I should not reveal how to do it in the case of USA, to not encourage some dictators-to-be..

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Sensei

[zapatos]

1 hour ago, Sensei said:

@zapatos

Perhaps, zapatos. But dictators-to-be generally piss on laws, constitutions and legislation. As soon as such person would gain enough power (which does not necessarily mean ultimate power at first), would dismantle entire constitution (e.g. render it joke by intercepting court which shall to check whether some law is against it, introducing sockpuppets)..

We have enough examples from recent years. putin, erdogan, xi, to name a few..

I should not reveal how to do it in the case of USA, to not encourage some dictators-to-be..

 

I don't see that happening in the US. The President cannot dismiss the courts to put in his own, cannot dismiss Congress, and cannot dismantle the Constitution. Putin, Erdogan, and Xi all had powers the the US President does not.

[Moontanman]

2 hours ago, zapatos said:

I don't see that happening in the US. The President cannot dismiss the courts to put in his own, cannot dismiss Congress, and cannot dismantle the Constitution. Putin, Erdogan, and Xi all had powers the the US President does not.

Powers Trump does not yet have, I'm not convinced those powers cannot be gained if the correct traitors in government have their way. 

I think there is a real possibility that Putin and the Russian government he controls want a civil war in the US. I think they are still pissed that their government failed at least partly due to the US shining them on about things like star wars at a time when they were struggling to keep up with the US militarily and keep their citizens alive. Putin hates us because they failed and wants us to fail as well. I think he is obsessed and a civil war would be as devastating as a foreign war. Putin is a step ahead of the US in cyber warfare and is using this advantage to  bring us down. Trump is a pawn, willing or unwilling, Trump and the conservatives who practically worship him are making it happen, slowly but surely and the rest of us still think it can't happen and probably will continue to think that  until it does and a fascist regime comes into power in the US.  Those "FEMA" camps might come to be after all... 

The real danger lies in the fundie Christians who think reversal of Roe vs Wade is worth any price, even coitus with the devil and have said as much. Movements like the Dominionists think they are commanded by God to take control and their long range plans appear to be coming to fruition. 

I for one am truly worried, this next election may very well be the deciding factor! Trump is already telling his base to vote republican so he cannot be impeached. 

If ever there was a time to vote now is it, I waited in line for two hours for ice, I'd wait in line as long this time as it takes to get my vote registered, Republicans are doing their best to disenfranchise everyone that might vote against them...  vote! the lives of our future children depend on it as sure they need oxygen... of it's hot where you live hand out water to the ones standing in line! Give people rides to the poles, this election will reflect who we really are, let's show the world the US is not a up and coming NAZI power... 

[StringJunky]

7 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

If ever there was a time to vote now is it, I waited in line for two hours for ice, I'd wait in line as long this time as it takes to get my vote registered, Republicans are doing their best to disenfranchise everyone that might vote against them...  vote! the lives of our future children depend on it as sure they need oxygen... of it's hot where you live hand out water to the ones standing in line! Give people rides to the poles, this election will reflect who we really are, let's show the world the US is not a up and coming NAZI power... 

It's even got Taylor Swift out telling people to  vote Democrat. Must be serious.

[MigL]

A civil war will not happen again in the US.
I have faith in my American brothers; They can be led astray, but they'll come to their senses eventually.

Civil wars are usually about the simplest reason, money and wealth.
The American Civil War was not about slavery, it was about a system that allowed the accumulation/retention  of wealth in the South.

I see the next civil war in China.
The most billionaires  of any nation, and over a billion people living on $5 per day.
Eventually those billion people are gonna demand their share of the pie.

[J.C.MacSwell]

14 hours ago, Ten oz said:

I think so. Not only does Trump have the support of the overwhelming majority of Republican voters but history is on his side. There is only one example of an incumbent U.S. President not getting their party nomination and that was in 1852, Here.

*Edit, more Presidents have been forced out by the threat of impeachment than failure to be re-nominated by their party. 

Is he likely to be challenged at all? What if someone like, say, Lindsey Graham ran against him, not challenging his politics so much as offering a more civil discourse? Trump would of course insult the heck out of him, but coming from Trump how much of it would stick? Graham could probably hold his own without replying in kind, even while praising Trump for any areas it is clear he did well (implying he would not change it). Some of the Republicans thinking they cannot win with Trump and those tired of Trumps vitriol, which I would suggest is the majority, would have another option.

If Graham did win, the Democrats might drop the extreme rhetoric also (I would suggest they would be in trouble if they didn't) and maybe things would cool down and become a more productive political debate...

...wishful thinking?

Edited October 12, 2018 by J.C.MacSwell

[iNow]

25 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

...wishful thinking?

Yes.

Graham got maybe 1% of the vote last time he ran. Trump well and truly crushed him, and looking at the way Trump’s been assimilating and consolidating power in the party, Graham wouid likely do even worse if trying to run again.

Even Ted Cruz is kissing Trumps ass despite Trump calling Cruz’ wife a dog and his dad a suspect in the JFK assassination. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

14 minutes ago, iNow said:

Yes.

Graham got maybe 1% of the vote last time he ran. Trump well and truly crushed him, and looking at the way Trump’s been assimilating and consolidating power in the party, Graham wouid likely do even worse if trying to run again.

Even Ted Cruz is kissing Trumps ass despite Trump calling Cruz’ wife a dog and his dad a suspect in the JFK assassination. 

So...will he simply go unchallenged?

How much of that is reluctant support? Ted Cruz et al can't be ecstatic about it.

Graham seems to be backing Trump, but willing to speak up against him when he crosses the line.

Graham: "I don't like what Trump said about Ford": https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/10/03/lindsey-graham-eleanor-holmes-norton-kavanaugh-trump-ath-vpx.cnn

Edited October 12, 2018 by J.C.MacSwell

[iNow]

18 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

So...will he simply go unchallenged?

My crystal ball is as uncloudy as yours. What do you think?

[J.C.MacSwell]

6 hours ago, iNow said:

My crystal ball is as uncloudy as yours. What do you think?

Mine has Trump winning in 2020 with Kanye West as his new running mate...so I thought it was broken...

[Ten oz]

8 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Is he likely to be challenged at all? What if someone like, say, Lindsey Graham ran against him, not challenging his politics so much as offering a more civil discourse?  Trump would of course insult the heck out of him, but coming from Trump how much of it would stick? Graham could probably hold his own without replying in kind, even while praising Trump for any areas it is clear he did well (implying he would not change it). Some of the Republicans thinking they cannot win with Trump and those tired of Trumps vitriol, which I would suggest is the majority, would have another option.

Graham has embraced Trump of late. Many suspect Graham will become a member of Trump's cabinet after the mid-terms. It is a well known secret that Trump intents to fire his Chief of Staff, Attorney General, and possibly the Sec. of Defense. Not only that but Graham has well known personal secret which would prevent him from being a serious challenger to Trump. A secret Trump wouldn't be above putting on blast if Graham were to challenge him. A challenge for the Republican nomination definitely won't being coming from Graham. 

Ford was the incumbent in 1976 and was challenged by Ronald Reagan for the Party nomination. Ford was an un-elected incumbent though. Ford became POTUS because Nixon resigned. Then in 1980 Ted Kennedy challenged incumbent Jimmy Carter  for the nomination. In both cases the incumbent won the nomination but went on to lose the election. What makes 2020 interesting for any potential Republican challengers is that fact that it's possible Trump won't be on the ballot in some states. States like CA, NJ, and MD are working on legislation making it mandatory for candidates to disclose their tax returns to be on the ballot. If that legislation succeeds it would open the door to a Republican challenger for the nomination to win a few states unopposed by the incumbent. The Republican most likely to challenge is Kasich.  

Does the Republican party, conservative voters, want a more civil discourse? They did vote for Trump in the first place after all and continue to approve of the job he is doing. 

9 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

If Graham did win, the Democrats might drop the extreme rhetoric also (I would suggest they would be in trouble if they didn't) and maybe things would cool down and become a more productive political debate...

Trump's former campaign manager and personal lawyer have already been convicted of criminal offense surrounding Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. Not only did Trump fail to win the popular support of the nation but it is a fact that his campaign broke the law to help him secure a victory. Let that sink in. We have a President who not only lost the popular vote but cheated and everyone is aware of it. Then there is the fact that everyone also know that Russian intelligence put money, man hours, and technology behind Trump's campaign. Trump was repeated made aware of Russian interference yet continued to publicly deny it because it was and continues to help him. Then there is also the questions surrounding the Emolument clause, here.  In my opinion the rhetoric from the Democrats isn't strong enough. I think Trump is a criminal who is literally working against the best interest of the United States. I don't think any amount of opposition to Trump could be too great. 

8 hours ago, iNow said:

Yes.

Graham got maybe 1% of the vote last time he ran. Trump well and truly crushed him, and looking at the way Trump’s been assimilating and consolidating power in the party, Graham wouid likely do even worse if trying to run again.

Even Ted Cruz is kissing Trumps ass despite Trump calling Cruz’ wife a dog and his dad a suspect in the JFK assassination. 

I think all of us who have been following U.S. politics for a minute know the sort of slurs Trump and his supporters would latch onto against Lindsey Graham and their definitely aren't pretty.  

[iNow]

3 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Mine has Trump winning in 2020 with Kanye West as his new running mate...so I thought it was broken...

Your crystal ball seems to be functioning correctly. It's our politics (and in some cases, our world) that is broken. It's time to get to work repairing it.

[Ten oz]

4 minutes ago, iNow said:

Your crystal ball seems to be functioning correctly. It's our politics (and in some cases, our world) that is broken. It's time to get to work repairing it.

Which is why I am hoping Oprah runs for President. In the current political environment attention matters more than policy. Even as a Cat 4 storm came ashore in FL and battered its way into GA it was Kanye West capturing headlines. The death toll from Michael is still rising. In years past Michael would be the only thing the media and President would be focused on yet here in 2018 Kenya West is receiving equal attention from both the media and POTUS. Trump held a campaign rally where supporters chanted "lock her up" aimed at Sen Feinstein as Michael came ashore. It is a goddamn circus! We are in an environment where candidates must be news worthy. FoxNews,CNN, MSNBC, nightly news on ABC, NBC, CBS, and even entertainment news segments like Daily Show, Real Time, Last Week Tonight, Colbert Show, Kimmel, and etc are basically all Trump (for or against) all the time 24/7. What use to be "the bubble" is now a total media blackout. Nuance, compromise, due diligence, and etc are qualities we might wish for in candidates but against Trump's total eclipse of  media coverage what is needed is fame. Oprah or Dwayne Johnson could probably do more for Democrats than Harris, Warren, Sanders, Biden, or etc at this point. Just look at the huge shot in the arm Taylor Swift gave Dems with a single Instagram post. Imagine that. One Instagram post from a pop star got more people to register to vote in a day than countless voting drives led by Sanders & Perez. It is a very sad state of affairs and it I feel a little ashamed and embarrassed by it but I really do hope someone like an Oprah chooses to run in 2020. If Someone as news worthy as Oprah doesn't challenge Trump whomever the Challenger is will just be footnote in the media coverage of Trump's 2020 campaign. If you thought 2016 was bad, Trump is POTUS now!

[iNow]

Would the election of Oprah make a civil war more likely or less likely? [/backontopic]