Democrats Get CRUSHED in 2018 Midterms!

[Raider5678]

18 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Ultimately there isn't an acceptable degree so you can stop attempting to frame it in more palatable light.  

Well if providing more accurate statistics on a SCIENCE FORUM simply earns me a downvote and an accusation of "attempting to frame it in more palatable light." then I'm done with this thread. 

18 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

More ugly behavior. 

No. It's called not taking the thread further off topic. My apologies if it disgusts you @Ten oz and @CharonY

Edited November 6, 2018 by Raider5678

[Ten oz]

10 minutes ago, Raider5678 said:

No. It's called not taking the thread further off topic. My apologies if it disgusts you @Ten oz and @CharonY

I down voted you for refusing to summarize your video (a rule violation) and being flippant about the plight of North Koreans.   

[iNow]

It’s early, but the democrats have to be disappointed in the current results. 

It appears Trumps strategy to combat the blue wave may be working. 

Lots of races Dems should’ve won? They didn’t. 

[Raider5678]

34 minutes ago, iNow said:

Lots of races Dems should’ve won? They didn’t. 

Yeah.

They also lost a Senate seat.

 

The one race I do care about though is the Senate Race for Maine, and it's looking great in my opinion.

[J.C.MacSwell]

36 minutes ago, iNow said:

It’s early, but the democrats have to be disappointed in the current results. 

It appears Trumps strategy to combat the blue wave may be working. 

Lots of races Dems should’ve won? They didn’t. 

That or the blue wave got a little off course and flattened out on a shoal before getting to the shore...

[Raider5678]

5 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

That or the blue wave got a little off course and flattened out on a shoal before getting to the shore...

This seems like the more likely option.

 

[iNow]

2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

That or the blue wave got a little off course and flattened out on a shoal before getting to the shore...

Maybe, but will you elaborate on how? There’s Kavenaugh, but what else?

[J.C.MacSwell]

3 hours ago, iNow said:

Maybe, but will you elaborate on how? There’s Kavenaugh, but what else?

You can't just assume the Trump's strategy worked. How the Democrats chose to campaign could have been as significant or more so.

I think the different strategies played out differently in the different races, but this was an election where the Democrats had an expected advantage in not being aligned with Trump.

You could say the votes were just cast on typical party lines, but I think the campaigns effected how people voted as well as turnout.

[Ten oz]

Things appear to have gone as most analyst projected Democrats won the house and Republicans kept the Senate. No big surprises. There were 33 Senate seats up for election and 23 Dem, 2 Independent, and 8 Republican. Democrats always had a mountain to climb just to avoid heavy Senate losses. In the house Democrats needed to pick up at least 25 seats and as of this morning they have picked up 27 with 16 races yet to have been called. It will be interesting to see the final numbers as they come out in a month or two. Despite failing to win the Senate Democratic candidates for Senate probably got several million more votes. 

[iNow]

1 hour ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

How the Democrats chose to campaign could have been as significant or more so.

You mean like by focusing on healthcare?

[geordief]

8 hours ago, iNow said:

It’s early, but the democrats have to be disappointed in the current results. 

It appears Trumps strategy to combat the blue wave may be working. 

Lots of races Dems should’ve won? They didn’t. 

You had me down with your pessimism last night. I went to sleep fearing the worst.

[iNow]

1 hour ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

You can't just assume the Trump's strategy worked.

It’s the most parsimonious explanation. In midterms, the presidents party is generally unmotivated to show up. Instead of letting an unmotivated base electorate lead to heavy losses, he very skillfully poured as much gasoline on to the fire as he could by whipping up resentments, driving the narrative toward distrust of others, the caravan, amd magnified this with powerful optics like sending 15,000 troops to the border. He also pounded democrats in an impressive campaign tour where he was hitting 3 large population centers per day for weeks. 

Democratic passion was extremely high... blue waves and whatnot... and Trump tamped it down tremendously, to his credit. 

[geordief]

20 minutes ago, iNow said:

It’s the most parsimonious explanation. In midterms, the presidents party is generally unmotivated to show up. Instead of letting an unmotivated base electorate lead to heavy losses, he very skillfully poured as much gasoline on to the fire as he could by whipping up resentments, driving the narrative toward distrust of others, the caravan, amd magnified this with powerful optics like sending 15,000 troops to the border. He also pounded democrats in an impressive campaign tour where he was hitting 3 large population centers per day for weeks. 

Democratic passion was extremely high... blue waves and whatnot... and Trump tamped it down tremendously, to his credit. 

To what effect? He has lost the support of the House of Representatives and only  marginally increased the GOP  margin in the Senate (ie no change).

 

Now he cannot stop scrutiny  over his personal and public  affairs . Is noone breathing any easier this morning?

[Ten oz]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

Democratic passion was extremely high... blue waves and whatnot... and Trump tamped it down tremendously, to his credit. 

Why are you crediting Trump for that were you under the impression Democrats would win the Senate? FiveThirtyEight, which you have cited in the past, have had the chances of Democrats winning the seat in the teens. Democrats did well last night. Democrats have been favored to win the House and Republicans favored to kept the Senate all year. Things went as expected. When all the fail results are in Republicans will have lost over 30 house seats (and control of the house) and lost at least 7 Governor mansions. 

I personally don't trust the overcomes in Florida,Texas, of GA as I read of too many issues in those states. Florida in particular is always a mess on election day. It is criminal in my opinion. The fact Florida is marred by long lines, overwhelmed polling sites, voter confusion, and machine errors every election with votes often coming down to just a single percentage point or two is inexcusable. Both Nelson and Gullium lost by less than a single percentage point meanwhile voting problems were reported all over the state. In TX and GA Cruz and Kemp similarly have razor thin margins as reports of errors come in. Sadly these things are too be expected in those states.

Quote

 

In North Miami, many Tuesday voters in the heavily black neighborhood were themselves frustrated as they learned that the North Miami library was not their proper voting location.

Irwin Braddy, a Miami-Dade employee assigned to monitor the location, estimated that just 235 people had been able to vote here —less than half of those who attempted to do so. Braddy explained that many voters had voted at the library during the primary, and so assumed they would be able to vote here again. And it seemed to him volunteer poll workers were not providing adequate explanations of what to do next for those who found themselves in the wrong place. Here

Glitchy paperless voting machines are affecting an untold number of early voting ballots in Texas and Georgia, raising the specter that two of the most closely watched races could be marred by questions about whether the vote count is accurate.

Civil rights groups and voters in the two states have filed complaints, alleging that electronic voting machines — some with touchscreens, some operated with dials — inexplicably deleted some people’s votes for Democratic candidates or switched them to Republican votes.The errors — which experts have blamed on outdated software and old machines — would appear to work to the advantage of Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke, and that of Georgia GOP gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp over Democrat Stacey Abrams. Here

 

 

[iNow]

Just now, geordief said:

Is noone breathing any easier this morning?

Only slightly. GOP was forecasted to pickup 1 seat in Senate. They got 2. 

26 governorships were being defended. Democrats took only 14. 

Democrats needed 23 seats to take the house. Median projected forecast was they’d get around 30, perhaps as much as 53 at the unlikely margins. They only got 26.

 

Sure, it’s better than nothing. No doubt, but It was IMO artfully tempered by Trumps racist focus and I’m disappointed that so many of my fellow citizens seem so bound and determined to repeat the mistakes of the pre-WW2 past... that the message of last night is mixed and muddy at best, not overwhelmingly in rebuke of xenophobia and dehumanization of ‘the other’ as I’d hoped. 

5 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Why are you crediting Trump for that were you under the impression Democrats would win the Senate? FiveThirtyEight, which you have cited in the past, have had the chances of Democrats winning the seat in the teens.

I feel he played the right notes. 538 forecast accounted for the impact of those notes. You can’t look at them as if they’re removed from trumps rhetoric. I’m specifically commenting on the way he drove GOP turnout, which should historically have been far lower. 

7 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Florida in particular is always a mess on election day. It is criminal in my opinion.

And the outcome for governor is currently separated by fewer than 34,000 votes, making your point even more salient. 

[Ten oz]

7 minutes ago, geordief said:

 

Now he cannot stop scrutiny  over his personal and public  affairs . Is noone breathing any easier this morning?

I don't get it either. Democrats don't appear to know how to take a win. Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million and ran around bragging what a massive victory his win was back in 2016. Now Republicans have lost control of the House yet Democrats seem prepared to let Trump take a victory lap because Republicans didn't also lose the Senate. It is comical. Democrats should be touting their gains in the House this morning threatening Trump's agenda with progressive proposals to healthcare, immigration, tax reform, and etc while also raising the specter of resolutions t protect the Mueller investigation and so. Democrats don't seems to know how to seize the moment and influence the narrative. They won last night. They need to start acting like it.

[geordief]

3 minutes ago, iNow said:

Only slightly. GOP was forecasted to pickup 1 seat in Senate. They got 2. 

26 governorships were being defended. Democrats took only 14. 

Democrats needed 23 seats to take the house. Median projected forecast was they’d get around 30, perhaps as much as 53 at the unlikely margins. They only got 26.

 

Sure, it’s better than nothing. No doubt, but It was IMO artfully tempered by Trumps racist focus and I’m disappointed that so many of my fellow citizens seem so bound and determined to repeat the mistakes of the pre-WW2 past... that the message of last night is mixed and muddy at best, not overwhelmingly in rebuke of xenophobia and dehumanization of ‘the other’ as I’d hoped. 

I think "slightly " underplays this when compared with what might have been

 

You are indeed coming from a low base when this result  is the near  best that could have been hoped for.

 

Like I said ,your post (and one or two others) sent me off to dreamland in expectation of a continuing GOP majority in the House of Representatives in the morning.

[J.C.MacSwell]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

Only slightly. GOP was forecasted to pickup 1 seat in Senate. They got 2. 

26 governorships were being defended. Democrats took only 14. 

Democrats needed 23 seats to take the house. Median projected forecast was they’d get around 30, perhaps as much as 53 at the unlikely margins. They only got 26.

 

Sure, it’s better than nothing. No doubt, but It was IMO artfully tempered by Trumps racist focus and I’m disappointed that so many of my fellow citizens seem so bound and determined to repeat the mistakes of the pre-WW2 past... that the message of last night is mixed and muddy at best, not overwhelmingly in rebuke of xenophobia and dehumanization of ‘the other’ as I’d hoped. 

Can you not see that what you are saying may be true to some extent, in some areas, but backfired to some extent in others? And the same can be said of the Democrat campaign.

As Ten oz points out, though it might be a missed opportunity for more, the final results were pretty much close to what was expected for quite a while.

The biggest News is the turnout.

[iNow]

Of course I see. I’m hardly some uninformed fool or partisan lemming. 

I also know myself well enough to know I wanted more. These thoughts are perfectly valid and consistent with each other. They’re my opinion. So what if your opinion is different?

I’m also disappointed Steve King kept his seat in my state and that Kim Reynolds handily beat Fred Hubbell. 

Yes, good things happened last night. Yes, bad things happened last night, too. I’m glad you’re all so excited. My enthusiasm is limited right now. Carry on...

[StringJunky]

I think the result was OK.The Dems at least have some teeth now for issues. On reflection, the Dems shouldn't have made such a fuss of the Kavanaugh appointment process because it was a slam dunk that he was in and all the pushback did was energise the Republican vote to start them off on the midterms.

Quote

“Today is more than about Democrats and Republicans, it’s about restoring the Constitution’s checks and balances to the Trump administration,” Nancy Pelosi, leader of the House Democrats, told supporters at victory party. -  Reuters

 

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by StringJunky

[Ten oz]

6 minutes ago, iNow said:

Only slightly. GOP was forecasted to pickup 1 seat in Senate. They got 2. 

26 governorships were being defended. Democrats took only 14. 

Democrats were never projected to win the Senate. Democrats did pickup an additional 7 Governor's mansions which is good in my opinion. 

12 minutes ago, iNow said:

Democrats needed 23 seats to take the house. Median projected forecast was they’d get around 30, perhaps as much as 53 at the unlikely margins. They only got 26

This isn't accurate. They currently have picked up 28 (per FiveThirtyEight) and 16 races have yet to be called with Republicans only favored to win 1 of the remaining races. Democrats will have picked up a number of seats on the mid 30's when all in said and done. So they met the median forecast. They didn't under perform as you appear to be suggesting. 

18 minutes ago, iNow said:

I feel he played the right notes. 538 forecast accounted for the impact of those notes. You can’t look at them as if they’re removed from trumps rhetoric. I’m specifically commenting on the way he drove GOP turnout, which should historically have been far lower. 

We don't have the total numbers yet. I suspect in total votes Democratic candidates got at least 6 million more votes last night. Only time will tell last night. For me the Senate was never in the cards. Democrats had too many seats to protect. Meanwhile I think there is a very real chance Republican stole the seats in TX and FL. 

[iNow]

1 minute ago, Ten oz said:

Democrats were never projected to win the Senate. <...> For me the Senate was never in the cards

It’s unclear why you felt the need to tell me this. I never suggested otherwise. I said GOP was forecasted to pickup 1 seat. They got 2. 

3 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

This isn't accurate. They currently have picked up 28

Thx for the correction. I looked at 538 before posting, but was on mobile and accidentally hit their blog which was last updated around 2am so searched elswhere. 

4 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Meanwhile I think there is a very real chance Republican stole the seats in TX and FL. 

And GA

[StringJunky]

5 minutes ago, iNow said:

It’s unclear why you felt the need to tell me this. I never suggested otherwise. I said GOP was forecasted to pickup 1 seat. They got 2. 

Thx for the correction. I looked at 538 before posting, but was on mobile and accidentally hit their blog which was last updated around 2am so searched elswhere. 

And GA

Reuters says they are projected to pick up 30+.

Quote

With some races still undecided, Democrats were headed for a gain of more than 30 seats, beyond the 23 they needed to claim their first majority in the 435-member House in eight years.

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by StringJunky

[Ten oz]

9 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

I think the result was OK.The Dems at least have some teeth now for issues. On reflection, the Dems shouldn't have made such a fuss of the Kavanaugh appointment process because it was a slam dunk that he was in and all the pushback did was energise the Republican vote to start them off on the midterms.

I disagree. Democrats were never projected to win the Senate. They picked up House seats and Governor mansions last night. The predictions for all this stuff far predates the Kavanaugh stuff. I think it is an error to assume recent news changed hearts and minds. Two Republicans who has been criminally indicted still won last night. People in the U.S. are extremely partisan and vote party almost no matter what. 

9 minutes ago, iNow said:

It’s unclear why you felt the need to tell me this. I never suggested otherwise. I said GOP was forecasted to pickup 1 seat. They got 2. 

Because you appear to accept my suggestion that Republicans stole at least 2 senate elections last night (O'Rouke and Nelson). Meaning in terms of vote enthusiasm and turnout Republicans legitimately gain zero Senate seats. 

[Raider5678]

21 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Meanwhile I think there is a very real chance Republican stole the seats in TX and FL.

Florida is looking suspicious however I think we can rule Texas out for suspicions of foul play causing the win. Almost every single county voted exactly as we thought they would. Additionally, the problems that Texas had at polling didn't add anywhere near 200,000 votes. I hate to say it but I think Republicans just happen to be more popular in Texas at the current moment.

As for Florida, one good thing that nobody seems to be focusing on is that Florida voted to grant voting rights to Ex-Felons and to no longer bar them from voting. Seems like a win by me.

18 minutes ago, iNow said:

It’s unclear why you felt the need to tell me this. I never suggested otherwise. I said GOP was forecasted to pickup 1 seat. They got 2. 

Is it just me or is it looking like they might pick up 4 in total?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

 

Additionally, I thought Democrats had just barely gained the majority so far as well:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html

Overall, at the end of the night, in the fight for the House Democrats got about 4 million more votes and gained anywhere from +26 seats to mid 30s.

I'm satisfied with the results and how our system worked out. Anyone else?

30 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

They picked up House seats and Governor mansions last night.

Speaking of Governors Mansions, what the heck is going on with Maine?

Edited November 7, 2018 by Raider5678