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Hijack fromclimate change intensified the amount of rainfall in recent hurricanes

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On 11/14/2018 at 3:37 PM, beecee said:

https://phys.org/news/2018-11-climate-simulations-wetter-windier-hurricanes.html

Climate simulations project wetter, windier hurricanesNovember 14, 2018, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

New supercomputer simulations by climate scientists at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have shown that climate change intensified the amount of rainfall in recent hurricanes such as Katrina, Irma, and Maria by 5 to 10 percent. They further found that if those hurricanes were to occur in a future world that is warmer than present, those storms would have even more rainfall and stronger winds.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-climate-simulations-wetter-windier-hurricanes.html#jCp

the paper:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0673-2

Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events

Abstract

There is no consensus on whether climate change has yet affected the statistics of tropical cyclones, owing to their large natural variability and the limited period of consistent observations. In addition, projections of future tropical cyclone activity are uncertain, because they often rely on coarse-resolution climate models that parameterize convection and hence have difficulty in directly representing tropical cyclones. Here we used convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate whether and how recent destructive tropical cyclones would change if these events had occurred in pre-industrial and in future climates. We found that, relative to pre-industrial conditions, climate change so far has enhanced the average and extreme rainfall of hurricanes Katrina, Irma and Maria, but did not change tropical cyclone wind-speed intensity. In addition, future anthropogenic warming would robustly increase the wind speed and rainfall of 11 of 13 intense tropical cyclones (of 15 events sampled globally). Additional regional climate model simulations suggest that convective parameterization introduces minimal uncertainty into the sign of projected changes in tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall, which allows us to have confidence in projections from global models with parameterized convection and resolution fine enough to include tropical cyclones.

 

So how come it isn't raining in California?

Because climate change is making it drier.

Define schizophrenia?

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Strange

Strange

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8 minutes ago, Olin said:

So how come it isn't raining in California?

How many hurricanes does California have?

And don't confuse weather and climate. 

9 minutes ago, Olin said:

Because climate change is making it drier.

Yep. Climate is complicated 

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Olin

Olin

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21 minutes ago, Strange said:

How many hurricanes does California have?

And don't confuse weather and climate. 

Yep. Climate is complicated 

LOL seems that you need to not confuse climate and weather, or are hurricanes not weather in your world

 

Hurricanes that affect California are mainly the remnants of hurricanes or tropical storms. In the twentieth century, only four eastern Pacific tropical cyclones have brought tropical storm-force winds to the Continental United States: the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm, Tropical Storm Joanne in 1972, Tropical Storm Kathleen in 1976, and Tropical Storm Nora in 1997.[4]

Pre–1930[edit]

  • After October 1854: A system considered to be a tropical cyclone made landfall over northern California, just north of the Golden Gate.[5]
  • October 2, 1858: The 1858 San Diego hurricane passed very close to Southern California. It brought several hours of hurricane and gale-force winds to an area stretching from San Diego to Los Angeles. This storm was reconstructed as just missing making landfall, dissipating offshore.[4]
  • Sometime before October 14, 1858: Since this tropical cyclone is reported in a newspaper as being only "one of the most terrific and violent hurricanes ever noted", the report may imply the existence of an earlier hurricane in southern California.[4] Other than occurring before the newspaper account was published (October 18, 1858), everything else about this "hurricane", including whether it even existed, is unknown.[4]
  • Before June or after October 1859: A system considered to be a tropical cyclone made landfall between Cape Mendocino and San Francisco Bay.[5]
  • August 11–12, 1873: Rain from a tropical storm fell on San Diego. The rain on August 12 set a record for wettest August day.[6]
  • July 20–21, 1902: The remnants of a hurricane brought rain to southern California.[7]
  • August 18–19, 1906: A tropical cyclone moved northward from the Gulf of California, and brought rain to southern California.[7]
  • September 15, 1910: The remnants of a hurricane brought rain to Santa Barbara County.[7]
  • August 26, 1915: The remnants of a tropical cyclone brought around an inch of rain to Riverside.[7]
  • September 11–12, 1918: The remnants of a tropical cyclone produced six inches (150 mm) of rain to the mountains of southern California.[7]
  • August 20–21, 1921: A tropical cyclone moved north from Baja California and into Arizona, producing rain in both southern California and Arizona.[7]
  • September 30, 1921: The remnants of a tropical cyclone moved northward from Baja California, and brought rain to Arizona and parts of California.[7]
  • September 18, 1929: A tropical cyclone in the Pacific Ocean dropped rain over southern California.[7]

1930s[edit]

  • September 28–October 1, 1932: The remnants of a hurricane brought four days of rain. Flash floods killed 15 people.[7]
  • August 25, 1935: A tropical cyclone moved northward from the south, and brought rain to southern California and parts of Arizona.[7]
  • August 9, 1936: A hurricane's remnants moved north and brought heavy rains to the Los Angeles area.[7]
  • September 4–7, 1939: The remnants of a hurricane brought over a year's worth of rain to parts of southern California.[7]
  • September 11–12, 1939: The remnants of a hurricane from the Gulf of California brought rain to parts of California.[7]
  • September 19–21, 1939: The remnants of a tropical cyclone brought rain to California.[7]
  • September 25, 1939: The 1939 California tropical storm made landfall near Long Beach.[7] Winds were near 80 km/h (50 mph) and rain was near 12 inches (300 mm). At sea, 48 people were killed. On land, 45 were killed in flooding, although these deaths may be partially attributable to a nasty thunderstorm immediately preceding the tropical storm.[3] This is the only known landfall in California by a tropical cyclone at tropical storm strength, during the twentieth century.[7]

1940s[edit]

  • September 1941: Moisture from a hurricane brought rain to California.[7]
  • September 9–10, 1945: The remnants of a tropical cyclone moved northward and brought rain to southern California.[7]
  • September 30–October 1, 1946: The remnants of a tropical storm brought several inches of rain to California.[7]

1950s[edit]

  • August 27–29, 1951: The remnants of a tropical cyclone brought enough rain to wash out some roads in southern California.[7]
  • September 19–21, 1952: The remnants of a hurricane brought rain to mountains in southern California.[7]
  • July 17–19, 1954: The remnants of a hurricane moved into Arizona, bringing rain to the state and parts of California.[7]
  • October 1–6, 1958: The remnants of a hurricane moved into Arizona, causing heavy rain in that state and in parts of California.[7]
  • September 11, 1959: The remnants of a hurricane generated some rain over California.[7]

1960s[edit]

1970s[edit]

300px-Hurricane_Heather_1977.jpg
 
Hurricane Heather on October 5, 1977
  • September 30–October 1, 1971: Atlantic Hurricane Irene crossed Central America and became Hurricane Olivia. Olivia eventually re-curved and made landfall in Baja California, with the remnants bringing rain to California.[7]
  • September 3, 1972: Tropical Depression Hyacinth made landfall in California[9] and produced rain in the area of Los Angeles.[7]
  • October 6, 1972: Hurricane Joanne made landfall in Mexico and managed to bring gale-force winds and rain to Arizona, as well as California.[7]
  • September 9–12, 1976: Hurricane Kathleen crossed the Baja California peninsula moved into California as a tropical storm. Yuma, Arizona reported sustained winds of 91 km/h (57 mph).[7] Rains from Kathleen caused catastrophic damage to Ocotillo, California and killed three[7] to six people.[10]
  • August 18–19, 1977: Hurricane Doreen denegerated into a remnant low off the coast of California.[7] The remnants moved inland and caused flooding and crop damage as 7.01 inches (178 mm) of rain fell on Yuma Valley, Arizona.[11]
  • October 6–7, 1977: Hurricane Heather's remnants moved into Arizona, bringing 8.30 inches (211 mm) of rain to Nogales, Arizona and up to 14 inches (360 mm) of rainfall to the adjacent mountains. The remnants also brought significant rainfall to southern California. This led to significant flooding in both states.[12]
  • September 5–6, 1978: Tropical Depression Norman made landfall in California.[13] Its remnants produced several inches of rain.[7]

1980s[edit]

  • June 29–30, 1980: Hurricane Celia's remnants produced a minor amount of rain over California.[7]
  • September 17–18, 1982: Remnants from Hurricane Norman generated rain over Arizona and southern California.[7]
  • September 24–26, 1982: The remnants of Hurricane Olivia produced over 7 inches (177 mm) of rain in California.[7]
  • September 20–21, 1983: The remnants of Hurricane Manuel produced rain in California.[7]
  • October 7, 1983: The very weak remnants of Hurricane Priscilla caused showers in Southern California.[7]
  • September 10–11, 1984: Hurricane Marie's weak remnants generated showers over Southern California.[7]
  • September 22–23, 1987: The remnants of Hurricane Norma generated thunderstorms over Southern California, which caused some flooding.[14]
  • October 5–12, 1987: Weather associated with Hurricane Ramon caused moderate to heavy rain in southern California. The highest amount noted was 2.14 inches (54 mm) at Camp Pendleton.[14]
  • September 1989: Hurricane Octave's remnants brought rain to California, doing minimal damage.[15]

1990s[edit]

250px-Hurricane_Linda_12_sept_1997_2100Z
 
Hurricane Linda on September 12, 1997
  • June 1990: The remnants of Hurricane Boris briefly caused heavy rainfall in Southern California. This was one of the reasons why it was the wettest June in San Diego, since record-keeping began in 1850.[16] Despite this, less than an inch (25 mm) of rain fell in most locations.[17]
  • July 1992: The remnants of Hurricane Darby caused cloudiness in California. These clouds were also enough to delay the landing of the Space Shuttle Columbia for a day, and cause it to land in Florida instead of California.[18]
  • August 1992: Hurricane Lester's remnants caused rain in extreme Southern California.[19]
  • August 5, 1997: Surf from Hurricane Guillermo caused rip currents near Corona Del Mar, and a place just north of Huntington Beach, injuring three people and killing one.[20]
  • August 19–20, 1997: Tropical Storm Ignacio's remnants produced gusty winds over the outer waters of California, and passed directly over the San Francisco Bay Area, before moving across the interior of the Pacific Northwest. Sporadic moderate to heavy rainfall was recorded in both California and the states of the Pacific Northwest.[21]
  • September 13–14, 1997: Hurricane Linda was at one point forecast to make landfall in Southern California.[22] Instead, it moved out to sea, although large waves caused by Linda did wash five people off a jetty in Newport Beach.[22] Also, Linda's outer rainbands generated thunderstorms over southern California, causing flash floods in some regions.
  • September 25–26, 1997: After making landfall in Baja California, Hurricane Nora maintained tropical storm status into California and Arizona. Moderate to heavy rains fell across southeast California and Arizona, with a new 24-hour maximum for Arizona  (305 mm (12 inches) falling in the Mogollon Rim). Damage totaled several hundred million, including $40 million (1997 USD) to lemon trees. There were a few indirect deaths caused by the hurricane.[23]

2000s[edit]

2010s[edit]

250px-Odile_2014-09-14_0600Z.jpg
 
Hurricane Odile on September 14, 2014
  • July 18–20, 2012: Associated moisture and clouds from the remnants of Hurricane Fabio generated scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Los Angeles Basin.[29]
  • September 5–7, 2012: Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm John brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to California.[30]
  • August 25–26, 2013: Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Ivo caused some thunderstorms and flooding in southern California.[31]
  • September 3, 2013: Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Kiko fueled the monsoon across the Southwestern United States, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.[32]
  • August 26–29, 2014: Large swells from Hurricane Marie caused high waves and rip currents.[33]
  • September 8, 2014: The remnants of Hurricane Norbert caused thunderstorms and flooding in Southern California.[34]
  • September 16–17, 2014: Hurricane Odile's outer rainbands brought thunderstorms to parts of Southern California, as a tropical storm. The remnants of Hurricane Odile also caused damage across central and eastern San Diego County on September 16, 2014, generating high winds and several uncharacteristically powerful thunderstorms in the region. Wind gusts over 20 knots reportedly uprooting trees, felled branches, cut power lines, crushed several cars, and flipped at least one airplane at Montgomery Field Airport.[35][36]Dry lightning generated by a line of severe thunderstorms in one of the rainbands set fire to a palm tree in San Diego[37] and storm force wind gusts within those severe thunderstorms left 6000 customers without power.[38]
  • October 6–7, 2014: Hurricane Simon's outer rainbands bring scattered thunderstorms and flash floods to parts of Southern California as a tropical storm, and later as a tropical depression, with a brief rain shower in San Diego County on October 7.
  • June 9–10, 2015: A low pressure system containing the remnants of Hurricane Blanca brought showers to Southern California on June 9.[39] Some flooding was reported in Santa Barbara County. On June 10, the low pressure system moved north to the San Francisco Bay Area and brought scattered showers there as well. Many rainfall records were broken.[40]
  • July 18–20, 2015: The remnants of Hurricane Dolores brought scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout Southern California, breaking many rainfall records and causing flooding.[41][42] One such flash flood caused a bridge to collapse which shut down Interstate 10 between Indio and Blythe, effectively shutting off the primary Phoenix-to-Los-Angeles route.[43] The good news was that the rain helped firefighters contain the North Fire within 3 days.
  • August 6, 2015: Hurricane Guillermo interacted with a longwave trough in the subtropical jet to its northeast to spawn a rare dry-season atmospheric river,[44] which went on to send moisture toward the San Francisco Bay Area, bringing a rare lightning storm to that area that night. Since the storm was dry and hardly brought any rain, the NWS issued a Red Flag Warning for that area.[45]
  • September 8–15, 2015: The remnants of Hurricane Linda brought localized downpours from Santa Barbara to San Diego, California.[46] On September 15, Los Angeles received 2.39 inches of rain, making it one of the wettest September days since records dating back to 1877,[47] second only to 1939.
  • July 11–12, 2017: Dangerous rip currents from Hurricane Eugene combined with swells of 4 to 8 ft (1.2 to 2.4 m) across Southern California.[48]
  • September 3–4, 2017: Moisture from Tropical Storm Lidia's remnant low brought flash flooding and thunderstorms to Southern California. Lidia's remnants also triggered a microburst event in Santa Barbara.[49]
  • July 7–8, 2018: As a tropical storm, Hurricane Fabio brought rip currents to the coastline of California, and showers and humid conditions to Northern California.[50]
  • August 9–11, 2018: Hurricane John brought high surf to the coast of Southern California.[51]
  • October 1, 2018: Hurricane Rosa brought scattered thunderstorms to parts of Southern California as a tropical storm, triggering flash flood watches in San Diego County.[52]
  • October 12, 2018: The remnants of Hurricane Sergio spawned numerous thunderstorms in Southern California, as well as triggering a high surf advisory along the coast. One thunderstorm made by the remnants of Sergio caused a power outage in Montebello that lasted from 10:00 P.M. to 1:00 A.M. PT (Pacific Time).
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Strange

Strange

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9 minutes ago, Olin said:

LOL seems that you need to not confuse climate and weather, or are hurricanes not weather in your world

You miss the point. California gets (almost) no hurricanes and this thread is about ... guess what, hurricanes. So rainfall in California is off topic. 

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Olin

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5 minutes ago, Strange said:

You miss the point. California gets (almost) no hurricanes and this thread is about ... guess what, hurricanes. So rainfall in California is off topic. 

You miss the point as hurricanes were used as an example of climate change, and clearly they are weather.

That said all the people who believe in climate change do is make up stuff anyway.

Can you explain when climate change is known to have not been happening on the Earth?

No you can't, just as you can't actually say that the melting of the ice age was caused by caveman roasting mammoths, or fossil fuel burning that

was not happening 

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hypervalent_iodine

hypervalent_iodine

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Olin said:

You miss the point as hurricanes were used as an example of climate change, and clearly they are weather.

That said all the people who believe in climate change do is make up stuff anyway.

Can you explain when climate change is known to have not been happening on the Earth?

No you can't, just as you can't actually say that the melting of the ice age was caused by caveman roasting mammoths, or fossil fuel burning that

was not happening 

 

!

Moderator Note

I suggest that if you want to speculate on the existence of climate change, that you open your own thread and kindly stop hijacking this one. 

 
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58 minutes ago, hypervalent_iodine said:

 

!

Moderator Note

I suggest that if you want to speculate on the existence of climate change, that you open your own thread and kindly stop hijacking this one. 

 

Actually when I open my own thread I will be banned again.  The fact is that none of you can mount any argument against the truth which is actually very plain to see, the truth is that climate change is real and was happening when thousands of feet thick ice sheets formed, and when they melted.  The minor melting happening today is quite normal, which is why Mann only looked at the last thousand years........................LOL

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iNow

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12 minutes ago, Olin said:

climate change is real and was happening when thousands of feet thick ice sheets formed, and when they melted.  The minor melting happening today is quite normal

When these ice sheets formed and melted in the past, there were still natural explanations for the change.

Volcanism. Changes in solar tilt. Changes in gas concentrations from shifting ecology. Etc. 

We know the climate is shifting now. You’re arguing it’s natural. 

Okay, then. If you reject human activity as the primary cause of the increasing rate of change, then you are still left to explain:

What natural forcing agent is driving the changes we’re currently experiencing? 

Saying “it’s natural” and walking away isn’t good enough. What natural event is driving today’s changes if not humans?

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2 minutes ago, iNow said:

When these ice sheets formed and melted in the past, there were still natural explanations for the change.

Volcanism. Changes in solar tilt. Changes in gas concentrations from shifting ecology. Etc. 

We know the climate is shifting now. You’re arguing it’s natural. 

Okay, then. If you reject human activity as the primary cause of the increasing rate of change, then you are still left to explain:

What natural forcing agent is driving the changes we’re currently experiencing? 

Saying “it’s natural” and walking away isn’t good enough. What natural event is driving today’s changes if not humans?

Are you seriously trying to say that the climate was not shifting when thousands of feet of ice formed covering continents, and again when it melted?

Are you seriously implying this? or that the baby changes happening now when compared to thousands of feet of ice forming and then melting are not normal?

Don't give up your day job

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beecee

beecee

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14 minutes ago, Olin said:

Actually when I open my own thread I will be banned again.  The fact is that none of you can mount any argument against the truth which is actually very plain to see, the truth is that climate change is real and was happening when thousands of feet thick ice sheets formed, and when they melted.  The minor melting happening today is quite normal, which is why Mann only looked at the last thousand years........................LOL

Nonsense, the problem is not so much climate change, its human induced climate change. And really your threads that are closed are because debate with you is impossible, because of  your total childish behaviour in not debating in good faith.  Evidenced in the following weird question.....

Quote

So how come it isn't raining in California?

 

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Just now, beecee said:

Nonsense, the problem is not so much climate change, its human induced climate change. And really your threads that are closed are because debate with you is impossible, because of  your total childish behaviour in not debating in good faith.  Evidenced in the following weird question.....

 

My threads were closed because you can not disprove one thing in any of them, so you stomp your little feet and end the truth in favor of your fiction

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beecee

beecee

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1 minute ago, Olin said:

So you can't point to any mistake that I have made.

Excellent, thank you for your honesty

Don't be so obtuse and naive...Your why "isn't it raining in California"among many many others in many threads illustrate your lack of real knowledge on the subject. You know the difference between climate change and weather?

Your claim that Australia was not under drought conditions was another wild arse guess/denial/ignorance. I'm sure there are many others of which at this time I'm too lazy to look for, but hey! its here for all to see!  :P 

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iNow

iNow

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Olin said:

Are you seriously trying to say that the climate was not shifting when thousands of feet of ice formed covering continents, and again when it melted?

Are you seriously implying this? or that the baby changes happening now when compared to thousands of feet of ice forming and then melting are not normal?

Don't give up your day job

Willfully ignorant. 

Intentionally obtuse.

Obvious reading comprehension problem.  

Those are your options. Which best describes you?

I vote troll, but want to offer you the benefit of the doubt. 

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Olin

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1 minute ago, beecee said:

Don't be so obtuse and naive...Your why "isn't it raining in California"among many many others in many threads illustrate your lack of real knowledge on the subject. You know the difference between climate change and weather?

Your claim that Australia was not under drought conditions was another wild arse guess/denial/ignorance. I'm sure there are many others of which at this time I'm too lazy to look for, but hey! its here for all to see!  :P 

Again, the climate is most certainly changing.  It's been getting warmer for 20,000 years, deserts are forming, as other areas are greening.  Claiming that Australia did not recently have the worst flooding ever filmed is actually funny.

But you keep trying, feel free to call a friend

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beecee

beecee

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32 minutes ago, iNow said:

When these ice sheets formed and melted in the past, there were still natural explanations for the change.

Volcanism. Changes in solar tilt. Changes in gas concentrations from shifting ecology. Etc. 

We know the climate is shifting now. You’re arguing it’s natural. 

Okay, then. If you reject human activity as the primary cause of the increasing rate of change, then you are still left to explain:

What natural forcing agent is driving the changes we’re currently experiencing? 

All well established and valid points.

Quote

Saying “it’s natural” and walking away isn’t good enough. What natural event is driving today’s changes if not humans?

It's good enough for our friend obviously, as evidenced in the obnoxious way he answered your thread...or should I say didn't answer your thread.

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Olin

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1 minute ago, beecee said:

All well established and valid points.

It's good enough for our friend obviously, as evidenced in the obnoxious way he answered your thread...or should I say didn't answer your thread.

The changes today are minor when compared to ice ages beginning and ending.  You need to accept this, as you can not prove otherwise and all the evidence proves that today's changes are minor

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beecee

beecee

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Posted
1 minute ago, Olin said:

Again, the climate is most certainly changing.  It's been getting warmer for 20,000 years, deserts are forming, as other areas are greening.  Claiming that Australia did not recently have the worst flooding ever filmed is actually funny.

But you keep trying, feel free to call a friend

I don't need to call anyone, and once again, you have avoided through ignorance and/or obtuseness the fact that parts of Australia are in drought.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/

7-month rainfall deficiencies map

 

and as long as you keep arguing and debating so dishonestly, this thread will probably also be closed, or your worthless pots extracted.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/archive/20181003.archive.shtml

September was Australia's driest on record

Rainfall was very much below average nationally, and particularly low across the southern mainland

Rainfall deficiencies have increased across eastern Australia and southern coastal areas of Western Australia at each of the 6-, 9- and 18-month timescales

Lower-level soil moisture was below average for September across eastern and northern Australia, and parts of inland and southern Western Australia.

The BoM is the Bureau of Meteorology

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Olin

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Just now, beecee said:

I don't need to call anyone, and once again, you have avoided through ignorance and/or obtuseness the fact that parts of Australia are in drought.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/

7-month rainfall deficiencies map

 

and as long as you keep arguing and debating so dishonestly, this thread will probably also be closed, or your worthless pots extracted.

 

A map drawn by someone duped by climate change fools

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=worst+flooding+ever+in+australia&FORM=HDRSC2

 

 

 

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Olin

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Just now, beecee said:

There is only one fool debating in this thread...I'll leave you to your fantasies, as it is obvious as to what will happen.

Have a good day!  

No that is not  evidence that anything I have said is wrong, or that climate change began recently in Earth terms

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iNow

iNow

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Posted
51 minutes ago, iNow said:

When these ice sheets formed and melted in the past, there were still natural explanations for the change.

Volcanism. Changes in solar tilt. Changes in gas concentrations from shifting ecology. Etc. 

We know the climate is shifting now. You’re arguing it’s natural. 

Okay, then. If you reject human activity as the primary cause of the increasing rate of change, then you are still left to explain:

What natural forcing agent is driving the changes we’re currently experiencing? 

Saying “it’s natural” and walking away isn’t good enough. What natural event is driving today’s changes if not humans?

Feel free to address this any time. 

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