Ukraine and Russia

[Ten oz]

Tensions are elevated between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is stating that Russian assets have attacked 3 of their ships off the coast of Crimea. What are the potential implications of this and how should NATO respond if at all?

Quote

 

Ukraine's navy says Russia has fired on and seized three of its vessels off the coast of the annexed Crimea, in a major escalation of tensions.

It said two gunboats and a tug were captured by Russian special forces after a chase. Two Ukrainian crew members were injured.

Russia is yet to comment on the claims.

The crisis began when Russia accused the Ukrainian ships of illegally entering its waters and stopped them from sailing into the Sea of Azov.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46338671

 

 

[StringJunky]

NATO should send "volunteers" along with military assets painted in Ukraine colours. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

Edited November 25, 2018 by StringJunky

[Ten oz]

U.N. will meet to discuss the matter today and in Ukraine they are considering martial law Here .

The U.S. and UK  have been among the leading voices on matters concerning Russia for several decades yet currently seem too embroiled with internal minutiae of far less significance than its being given to response adequately. I think history shows that it is better to stay on top of these matters before they get out of hand. Once forces are mobilized and bombs are dropped everything  become more difficult. If Russia moved to annex the rest of the Ukraine (they already took Crimea) I don't get the feeling the U.S., UK , or anyone else will feel like risking WW3 to do anything about it. I think there is something very dangerous about that .Allowing bad actors around the world to misbehave as a means of avoiding larger conflicts only emboldens those forces globally. Whether its Syria's continued use of chemical gas, Saudi Arabia's human rights abuses in Yemen, or Russian aggression in Ukraine we are seeing an escalation in abuses among some of the worlds top Armed Forces. There are serious risks in continuing to ignore it. 

 

[Silvestru]

17 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

U.N. will meet to discuss the matter today and in Ukraine they are considering martial law Here .

The U.S. and UK  have been among the leading voices on matters concerning Russia for several decades yet currently seem too embroiled with internal minutiae of far less significance than its being given to response adequately. I think history shows that it is better to stay on top of these matters before they get out of hand. Once forces are mobilized and bombs are dropped everything  become more difficult. If Russia moved to annex the rest of the Ukraine (they already took Crimea) I don't get the feeling the U.S., UK , or anyone else will feel like risking WW3 to do anything about it. I think there is something very dangerous about that .Allowing bad actors around the world to misbehave as a means of avoiding larger conflicts only emboldens those forces globally. Whether its Syria's continued use of chemical gas, Saudi Arabia's human rights abuses in Yemen, or Russian aggression in Ukraine we are seeing an escalation in abuses among some of the worlds top Armed Forces. There are serious risks in continuing to ignore it. 

Talk about up to date. You linked this 2 minutes after it was posted on BBC. Thank you Ten.
The situation is horrible. I strongly think NATO should get involved and not just "disapprove R's actions". 

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, Silvestru said:

Talk about up to date. You linked this 2 minutes after it was posted on BBC. Thank you Ten.
The situation is horrible. I strongly think NATO should get involved and not just "disapprove R's actions". 

We can't sit on our hands much longer, Putin is an empire builder.

[Silvestru]

4 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

We can't sit on our hands much longer, Putin is an empire builder.

I think it's a bad look for NAT0 seeing that there have been multiple warnings and no action. 

We have a saying in my country: The dogs bark, the bear keeps walking.

[StringJunky]

13 minutes ago, Silvestru said:

I think it's a bad look for NAT0 seeing that there have been multiple warnings and no action. 

We have a saying in my country: The dogs bark, the bear keeps walking.

It might just be that other things happening elsewhere and domestically within the NATO countries that is diminishing the problem: too distracted.

[Ten oz]

46 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

It might just be that other things happening elsewhere and domestically within the NATO countries that is diminishing the problem: too distracted.

This is what I think. However I also think Russia had a hand in those distractions for this very reason. 

[Silvestru]

8 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

This is what I think. However I also think Russia had a hand in those distractions for this very reason. 

This is my thought exactly. But (and this might be an unpopular opinion) I think also Poroshenko might be pulling off a Nixon. (extending the Vietnam war to cause Fear, uncertainty and doubt to get re-elected).

BTW as a slight off-topic, I have "noticed" many Nixon tricks in this conflict. Remember the checkers speech? 
And you know, the kids, like all kids, love the dog and I just want to say this right now, that regardless of what they say about it, we're gonna keep it.

I saw many similar strawman speeches during the last years in this conflict. 

[Ten oz]

Ukraine govt has declared Martial Law Here . Germany's Angela Merkel spoke Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko via phone today and thus far only spokes people for UK's Prime Minister and the U.S. President have commented. 

[Raider5678]

6 hours ago, Silvestru said:

We have a saying in my country: The dogs bark, the bear keeps walking.

But that doesn't necessarily mean the dog should attack the bear, especially if the dog would get killed by the bear and the bear would be shot by the dog's owner.

Also known as Mutually Assured Destruction.

6 hours ago, StringJunky said:

We can't sit on our hands much longer, Putin is an empire builder.

That's the truth. But what should we do with our hands?

[StringJunky]

13 minutes ago, Raider5678 said:

But that doesn't necessarily mean the dog should attack the bear, especially if the dog would get killed by the bear and the bear would be shot by the dog's owner.

Also known as Mutually Assured Destruction.

That's the truth. But what should we do with our hands?

Put a symbolic amount of NATO assets in Ukraine, to start. Not enough to be an immediate threat to Russia but enough to to say "We are here and watching, and we will defend our ally". If it was me, I'd have a few thousand "volunteers" there, as i said earlier, decked out in unmarked clothes. The lesson there is that if he wants play that game, we can too. We need to get savvy and involved in hybrid warfare. The days of fighting in a field are over.

Edited November 26, 2018 by StringJunky

[Ten oz]

10 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Put a symbolic amount of NATO assets in Ukraine, to start. Not enough to be an immediate threat to Russia but enough to to say "We are here and watching, and we will defend our ally"

Right, the mutual assured destruction stuff is not any sort of deterrent if it isn't believed. Russia's actions imply they don't anticipate meaningful consequences. 

I would like to see Theresa May and Trump publicly address the matter. Additionally I would like to see the U.S. send our Sec of State and or other cabinet level officials to the Ukraine to assess the situation. I believe having high level officials in the region would at the very least quiet things down for a for days as Russia is not likely to take further action while diplomats are in the region.

[StringJunky]

10 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Right, the mutual assured destruction stuff is not any sort of deterrent if it isn't believed. Russia's actions imply they don't anticipate meaningful consequences. 

I would like to see Theresa May and Trump publicly address the matter. Additionally I would like to see the U.S. send our Sec of State and or other cabinet level officials to the Ukraine to assess the situation. I believe having high level officials in the region would at the very least quiet things down for a for days as Russia is not likely to take further action while diplomats are in the region.

Yeah, that would help as well. The general idea being that we are active in the area.

[pavelcherepan]

9 hours ago, StringJunky said:

If it was me, I'd have a few thousand "volunteers" there, as i said earlier, decked out in unmarked clothes.

Looking forward to WW3, thank you. Always wanted to play Fallout IRL.

Interesting timing with this event though. EU is busy with riots in France and Brexit talks and US is having it's own issues with the Mexican immigrants among other things. Also, as another piece of 'coincidental' timing, now that Ukraine government has introduced martial law in several regions, how will that influence the upcoming presidential elections coming up on the 31st of March. It's noteworthy that said martial law has been introduced particularly in the regions adjacent to Russia, that are less supportive of the current government.

I really wonder what the plan of the Ukrainian command was when sending military vessels into Russia-controlled waters without prior arrangements? Of course, they can say that de jure this is their own territorial waters, but c'mon, they would be expecting some sort of reaction.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2018 by pavelcherepan

[StringJunky]

3 hours ago, pavelcherepan said:

Looking forward to WW3, thank you. Always wanted to play Fallout IRL.

This is what is making people wet their pants and Putin is exploiting it handsomely. Time to man up. 

[Silvestru]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

This is what is making people wet their pants and Putin is exploiting it handsomely. Time to man up. 

I don't think diplomacy failed. I think it was not done correctly by NATO. We should not really "man up", there should be a serious get-together and have negotiation with Russia.

Right now it looks like leaders are just threatening or blaming via press conferences. This is not communication. 

[Ten oz]

4 hours ago, pavelcherepan said:

Looking forward to WW3, thank you. Always wanted to play Fallout IRL.

Interesting timing with this event though. EU is busy with riots in France and Brexit talks and US is having it's own issues with the Mexican immigrants among other things. Also, as another piece of 'coincidental' timing, now that Ukraine government has introduced martial law in several regions, how will that influence the upcoming presidential elections coming up on the 31st of March. It's noteworthy that said martial law has been introduced particularly in the regions adjacent to Russia, that are less supportive of the current government.

I really wonder what the plan of the Ukrainian command was when sending military vessels into Russia-controlled waters without prior arrangements? Of course, they can say that de jure this is their own territorial waters, but c'mon, they would be expecting some sort of reaction.

You question rational behind why Ukrainian ships would be in where they were while acknowledging it is their own territorial waters. Shouldn't the same logic apply to Russia? Not only did Russia annex part of the Ukraine but Russia has interfered with Ukrainian elections even going so far as to poison officials. What sort of reaction should Russia expect?  Considering Russia's history of election interference I see know reason to assume the Martial Law declaration is a move by the current govt to manipulate election. There are no pro-Russian candidates tracking to win the election.  So implying that martial law somehow stifles pro Russia voices ahead of the election is a stretch.  Without pro-Russian candidates in play this Election to begin with I don't see how the current Ukrainian govt's recent moves does anything to negatively impact their elections. 

There is nothing wrong with fearing a third world war but it definitely shouldn't be used as a call for inaction. Standing by quietly while Putin exercises increasing amounts of authority and force only makes a larger conflict more likely. Whether it is the women and children dying in Yemen, the Russian led military assaults in Syrian, or now what's happening in Ukraine I keep seeing people imply some version of the notion that allowing these abuses today somehow spares of larger conflict tomorrow. I think history clearly saying otherwise.

Quote

 

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Ukraine’s 2019 calendar has a presidential ballot on March 31 and Rada (parliamentary) elections no later than October. No clear favorite has emerged in either. The Kremlin undoubtedly will seek to influence both elections with money, supportive electronic media, active social media, and cyber operations. The few openly pro-Russian faces that remain in Ukraine, such as Victor Medvedchuk, also will likely help out.

Moscow’s influence campaign faces challenges, however. Ukrainians are on the alert for Russian interference. Moreover, no candidate or party wants a “pro-Moscow” label. And Russia’s occupation of Crimea and part of the Donbas means that a significant portion of the electorate that in the past has been pro-Russian will not be voting.

Russian interference thus may make the Ukrainian elections more chaotic. It will not, however, deliver a pro-Russian president or sizable pro-Russian bloc in the Rada.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/10/09/russia-vs-ukraine-more-of-the-same/

 

 

Just now, Silvestru said:

I don't think diplomacy failed. I think it was not done correctly by NATO. We should not really "man up", there should be a serious get-together and have negotiation with Russia.

Right now it looks like leaders are just threatening or blaming via press conferences. This is not communication. 

Russia interfered with U.S. elections in 2016 and this year. Russia also put cyber propaganda, financial support, and intelligence assets behind Brexit in the UK. Putin is intentionally sowing division in the Western World and it is working. The U.S. is behaving combative towards NATO and the U.N. while the UK is dissatisfied with the EU. As western partnerships dissolve Putin is working to consolidate power within Russia, strength the power of his allies like Assad, and move on his seemingly unprotected (Ukraine is not technically part of NATO) neighbors. It is a best case scenario for Putin. If this were a game of Chess Russia has put western democracy in check. It isn't checkmate but a counter move is required. 

[Silvestru]

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

Russia interfered with U.S. elections in 2016 and this year. Russia also put cyber propaganda, financial support, and intelligence assets behind Brexit in the UK. Putin is intentionally sowing division in the Western World and it is working. The U.S. is behaving combative towards NATO and the U.N. while the UK is dissatisfied with the EU. As western partnerships dissolve Putin is working to consolidate power within Russia, strength the power of his allies like Assad, and move on his seemingly unprotected (Ukraine is not technically part of NATO) neighbors. It is a best case scenario for Putin. If this were a game of Chess Russia has put western democracy in check. It isn't checkmate but a counter move is required. 

My point is that we need to think and not act out of anger. Too many people are thinking or Russia as the enemy. This path I feel takes us to armed conflict.

I think we should think about strict economical sanctions. I know many countries are importing many goods from Russia like Gas and others but we should try to cut trade as much as possible with Russia. No imports/exports. Also take some defensive measures just in case but we should not provoke from a military point of view. A cornered bear is a dangerous one.

It had an effect last time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_financial_crisis_(2014–2017)

[Ten oz]

16 minutes ago, Silvestru said:

My point is that we need to think and not act out of anger. Too many people are thinking or Russia as the enemy. This path I feel takes us to armed conflict.

I think we should think about strict economical sanctions. I know many countries are importing many goods from Russia like Gas and others but we should try to cut trade as much as possible with Russia. No imports/exports. Also take some defensive measures just in case but we should not provoke from a military point of view. A cornered bear is a dangerous one.

Sanctions require partnership among Allies to enforce. Those partnerships are currently frayed. That has been part of Russia's objective with it's election interference. Sanctions also take time to develop and implement. Considering Ukraine has declared Martial Law, Russia has 3 Ukraine ships, and an election is looming something more immediate is required than sanctions which are at least a couple years away from having any impact on Russia's economy. 

I am not recommending war. I simply want the U.S. President and the UK Prime Minister to be more vocal, definitive, and visible on what's currently happening. As it stands I have no idea if or where the line in the Sand is for my (U.S.) govt in this issue. If Russia invaded Ukraine tomorrow I have idea what, if anything, my govt should do. I consider that a serious problem. We should all know what the rules of engagement look are. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by Ten oz

[iNow]

7 hours ago, pavelcherepan said:

Also, as another piece of 'coincidental' timing, now that Ukraine government has introduced martial law in several regions, how will that influence the upcoming presidential elections coming up on the 31st of March.

The martial law approved by vote yesterday is set to expire in 30 days, before the end of December. It’s possible they’ll renew it, but until they do then impact to March 31 elections should be nil.

[Silvestru]

All things aside. I think Porushenko's actions should have been consulted with NATO beforehand. I am not discussing who has what rights on the Azov sea but just the implications of sending 2 warships in a sea that a country not known for it's rational decisions believes it has total rights on. 

If I asked this forum last week. "Hey guys what would happen if Ukr sent 2 warships to the Azov sea and not turn back after being warned?" I am sure the majority of us would at least consider an aggressive response from Russia. I mean seriously. What were they hoping for here? To test Rus? Well results are in accordance to our prediction.

pavelcherepan raised a similar point but no one addressed it. What was the game plan here?

[iNow]

3 minutes ago, Silvestru said:

What was the game plan here?

Hopefully not another assassination of Archduke Ferdinand or Lusitania sinking...

[Silvestru]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

Hopefully not another assassination of Archduke Ferdinand or Lusitania sinking...

That's why we should discuss with Ukr. as well before we "man up". The modern citizen cannot afford to be provoked so easily and vote to take action before we investigate what happened. 

Those times should be behind us. 

[Ten oz]

7 minutes ago, Silvestru said:

That's why we should discuss with Ukr. as well before we "man up". The modern citizen cannot afford to be provoked so easily and vote to take action before we investigate what happened. 

Those times should be behind us. 

Do you currently have an idea of where the line in the Sand lays? I don't. I would like my govt to provide some clarity on whether or not we'd intervene if Russia moved to annex the Ukraine.