Ukraine and Russia

[Silvestru]

34 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Do you currently have an idea of where the line in the Sand lays? I don't. I would like my govt to provide some clarity on whether or not we'd intervene if Russia moved to annex the Ukraine. 

I didn't pretend I do. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think you can really have this clarity from the POTUS. Aside from being unreliable in his statements he is more connected to Russia than Piroshki and Vodka.

I've seen it a lot in movies but the US never fought directly with Russia if you don't count US's involvement in Russia's civil war. I really don't expect that the current US government would vote to intervene if your scenario came true.

You guys specialise more in conflicts involving 3'rd world countries.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Silvestru

[Ten oz]

14 minutes ago, Silvestru said:

I didn't pretend I do.

I didn't mean to imply you did.

15 minutes ago, Silvestru said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think you can really have this clarity from the POTUS. Aside from being unreliable in his statements he is more connected to Russia than Piroshki and Vodka.

I agree, it is sort of my point. Russia's election interference is paying dividends.

18 minutes ago, Silvestru said:

I've seen it a lot in movies but the US never fought directly with Russia if you don't count US's involvement in Russia's civil war. I really don't expect that the current US government would vote to intervene if your scenario came true.

You guys specialise more in conflicts involving 3'rd world countries

The line in the sand was always clearly identifiable.  

[Silvestru]

1 minute ago, Ten oz said:

The line in the sand was always clearly identifiable.  

Sorry Ten, went overboard a bit, I can't be objective these days as I have many Ukrainian colleagues at work and I hear only their stories and their family struggles. It's getting to me.

Please continue keeping us up to date during these hard times. 

[Ten oz]

Russia has released video of the Ukrainian sailors. I think it is insane Russia have not returned the sailors. I think it is a punitive and aggressive act to flaunt them on camera while they're prisoners. 

Quote

 

MOSCOW -- Russia has released video of a group of captured Ukrainian sailors giving oral confessions to deliberately violating Russian territory. Russian security forces seized the sailors and their Ukrainian military vessels on Monday in the Kerch Strait in a maritime standoff which has seen tensions between the two neighbors spike. It was not clear whether the sailors' confessions, given in the custody of Russia's security services, were made under duress.

Russia says the Ukrainian vessels sparked the confrontation by refusing to yield upon orders from Russian border forces to change their course in Russian territorial waters.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-sailors-captured-kerch-strait-crimea-confession-video-2018-11-27/

 

 

[pavelcherepan]

On 11/27/2018 at 5:28 AM, StringJunky said:

If it was me, I'd have a few thousand "volunteers" there, as i said earlier, decked out in unmarked clothes.

Just once again I'm wondering of you rationale for this idea. What would the point of it be? So, say some border clash broke out and some of your unofficial volunteers got killed. US government wouldn't be able to hold that against Russia, since US troops weren't officially there. Thankfully this will not be a casus belli and will not be a reason for NATO to get involved.

Not sure what your point is.

10 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Russia interfered with U.S. elections in 2016 and this year.

Oh, this year again. Does Russia interfere with all elections everywhere?

8 hours ago, Ten oz said:

If Russia invaded Ukraine tomorrow I have idea what, if anything, my govt should do.

I'm pretty sure government would have some plans on paper, it's just not smart to share them around beforehand. 

4 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Russia has released video of the Ukrainian sailors. I think it is insane Russia have not returned the sailors.

They've been detained for trespassing and not complying with official's requests. Just out of curiosity, what do you think, say, US would do if they detained a ship with a crew who were trespassing and trying to run from authorities? Would they be immediately released or will be detained for questioning?

Edited November 27, 2018 by pavelcherepan

[StringJunky]

12 minutes ago, pavelcherepan said:

Just once again I'm wondering of you rationale for this idea. What would the point of it be? So, say some border clash broke out and some of your unofficial volunteers got killed. US government wouldn't be able to hold that against Russia, since US troops weren't officially there. Thankfully this will not be a casus belli and will not be a reason for NATO to get involved.

Not sure what your point is.

Oh, this year again. Does Russia interfere with all elections everywhere?

I'm pretty sure government would have some plans on paper, it's just not smart to share them around beforehand. 

They've been detained for trespassing and not complying with official's requests. Just out of curiosity, what do you think, say, US would do if they detained a ship with a crew who were trespassing and trying to run from authorities? Would they be immediately released or will be detained for questioning?

The sea of Azov is not solely Russian, so I don't know where you are coming from.

[pavelcherepan]

14 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

The sea of Azov is not solely Russian, so I don't know where you are coming from.

I did not say that. I was asking what is the point in having military personnel there in unmarked clothes as you'd suggested.

[iNow]

45 minutes ago, pavelcherepan said:

Oh, this year again. Does Russia interfere with all elections everywhere?

Yes. This year again. Plenty of evidence in support.

No. Not everywhere. Nobody said that. Not even close.

Let’s not degrade the conversation with silliness. 

[pavelcherepan]

22 minutes ago, iNow said:

Yes. This year again. Plenty of evidence in support.

Don't want to de-rail the discussion, but just quick question: what would NOT be considered an interference? For example, if Russian government officials voiced a support towards a certain party/candidate and state-owned media would be used to support that candidate/party in a very open way, would that be considered interference?

[iNow]

52 minutes ago, pavelcherepan said:

quick question: what would NOT be considered an interference?

Lots of stuff. How many examples do you want?

 

Drinking vodka while playing MarioKart. 

Shaving a mohawk on to a dog. 

Shoveling snow with a bra. 

Opening champagne with a sword. 

Wrestling a bear. 

Carving owls into rock faces.

Nude windsurfing...

 

I could go on. 

Edited November 28, 2018 by iNow

[pavelcherepan]

54 minutes ago, iNow said:

Drinking vodka while playing MarioKart. 

Shaving a mohawk on to a dog. 

Shoveling snow with a bra. 

Opening champagne with a sword. 

Wrestling a bear. 

Carving owls into rock faces.

Nude windsurfing...

 

I could go on. 

Was it not you who just recently said that we shouldn't degrade conversation with silliness? 

[Raider5678]

7 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Russia has released video of the Ukrainian sailors. I think it is insane Russia have not returned the sailors. I think it is a punitive and aggressive act to flaunt them on camera while they're prisoners. 

Quote

Well, the soldiers have confessed their crimes. Guess it's obvious who instigated it.

 

Anyways, this is bad. Very bad.

Russia released that video of the sailors confessing, and it's quite obvious they were forced to. I doubt that force didn't include the threat of torture, or perhaps torture itself. Russia wouldn't do that unless they knew for a fact those sailors weren't going to go back to their home country and tell everyone about it. Even though we know about it, it'd be humiliating to Russia politically if they did that, the sailors went back and then said they were forced to confess by Russians. 

Those sailors are not going home. Ever.

Edited November 28, 2018 by Raider5678

[iNow]

33 minutes ago, pavelcherepan said:

Was it not you who just recently said that we shouldn't degrade conversation with silliness? 

I answered the question you asked. If you want better answers, recommend you ask better questions. 

18 minutes ago, Raider5678 said:

Those sailors are not going home. Ever.

While certainly possible, this clearly isn’t certain. Don’t give up hope. 

[Raider5678]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

While certainly possible, this clearly isn’t certain. Don’t give up hope. 

I meant to put a "probably" in there somewhere. It does seem like I'm giving an absolute now.

[pavelcherepan]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

I answered the question you asked. If you want better answers, recommend you ask better questions. 

1 hour ago, Raider5678 said:

I gave a pretty concrete example and asked whether that would be considered interference or not. It was an alright question. Instead of answering it, you decided to ridicule me for whatever reason.

Edited November 28, 2018 by pavelcherepan

[iNow]

4 hours ago, pavelcherepan said:

 if Russian government officials voiced a support towards a certain party/candidate and state-owned media would be used to support that candidate/party in a very open way, would that be considered interference?

No

[pavelcherepan]

Thank you. 

[iNow]

14 minutes ago, pavelcherepan said:

Thank you. 

My pleasure. A logical follow-up would be, what types of behaviors ARE considered interference. To that:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/us/politics/russia-interference-midterm-elections.html

https://medium.com/dfrlab/trolltracker-facebook-uncovers-active-influence-operation-74bddfb8dc06

And:

https://issuu.com/nyusterncenterforbusinessandhumanri/docs/nyu_stern_cbhr_combating_russian_di?e=31640827/63115656

See also:  https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/exhibits-080118.pdf

Edited November 28, 2018 by iNow

[pavelcherepan]

23 minutes ago, iNow said:

My pleasure. A logical follow-up would be, what types of behaviors ARE considered interference. To that:

Fair enough. I like this one:

Quote

American colloquial language yet characteristic of native Russian-speakers, especially an inability to use grammatical articles, “the” and “a/an,” and difficulties with singular and plural verb forms. As @DFRLab has reported, this was one of the most telling identifiers of the troll accounts which targeted the U.S. from Russia in 2014-2017.

From what I'd seen on my Facebook feed, a very big chunk of native English speakers struggle with those as well or simply don't care about grammar online. Although, personally I blame Australian education system.

[iNow]

10 minutes ago, pavelcherepan said:

Fair enough. I like this one:

From what I'd seen on my Facebook feed, a very big chunk of native English speakers struggle with those as well or simply don't care about grammar online.

Yeah. Many of my fellow citizens are, indeed, poorly educated and exercise poor use of grammar. Only a fool would disagree with you there. 

I reckon we’re pretty fortunate then that those aren’t the sole criteria used when identifying election interference by foreign powers. 

[Ten oz]

Russia is strengthening its military presence in Crimea. 

Quote

 

MOSCOW/KERCH, Crimea, (Reuters) - Russia said on Wednesday it would send more of its advanced S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to Crimea and a Reuters reporter saw a Russian warship deploying nearby as tensions with Ukraine rose over Moscow's seizure of Ukrainian navy ships.

Russia has steadily poured new military hardware into Crimea since it annexed it from Ukraine in 2014, turning it into what Kremlin-backed media have called a fortress.

Moscow's announcement about new missiles follows its seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels and their crews on Sunday over what it said was their illegal entry into Russian waters, something Ukraine denies. Here

 

 

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

Russia is strengthening its military presence in Crimea. 

 

According to Reuters, this has likely been planned well in advance of the current issues; probably months.

[Ten oz]

13 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

According to Reuters, this has likely been planned well in advance of the current issues; probably months.

Yes, I read that. Still bad timing. Yesterday it was video of the sailors and today it is this. 

[MigL]

It's too bad...
At one time, the Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power in the World.
They decided, in 1994, to join the NPT, and dismantle their sizeable nuclear arsenal.

I don't think even V Putin would be brave enough to pull these stunts if the Ukraine was still a nuclear power.
If you live beside a 'bear' ( not you Silvestru ), you'd better invest in a rifle.

( say what you will about 'evil' Americans, but Canadians haven't had to face this kind of behavior since 1812 )

[Silvestru]

8 hours ago, MigL said:

It's too bad...
At one time, the Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power in the World.
They decided, in 1994, to join the NPT, and dismantle their sizeable nuclear arsenal.

I don't think even V Putin would be brave enough to pull these stunts if the Ukraine was still a nuclear power.
If you live beside a 'bear' ( not you Silvestru ), you'd better invest in a rifle.

( say what you will about 'evil' Americans, but Canadians haven't had to face this kind of behavior since 1812 )

Wow, I never thought about that before. I mean who knows what would have happened but interesting thought nonetheless.