U.S. Democratic Primary

[J.C.MacSwell]

3 hours ago, iNow said:

And now he's endorsed Elizabeth Warren. This is interesting to me, as during an early debate I thought to myself that he might be a good VP pick for her. Anyway, will be curious if his supporters move over.

Warren's poll fluctuations are greater than Castro's polling numbers. So it will be difficult to tell.

[iNow]

Good point. The numbers also don’t move in isolation (there are multiple confounding variables at play). 

[iNow]

I know everyone will be shocked and dismayed to read this, but Marianne Williamson has now also dropped out. She clearly wants to spend more time with her cosmic astral projection children or moon pixies. 

[CharonY]

... she was still in the race?

[iNow]

Lol. That about sums it up 

[J.C.MacSwell]

37 minutes ago, CharonY said:

... she was still in the race?

She was about to spike into the lead...

[J.C.MacSwell]

Looks like Booker is out:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/13/politics/cory-booker-ends-presidential-race/index.html

He might be my pick for A. Yang's VP though...

[iNow]

I just saw that, too. Like him and his message. Is too bad he didn’t get more traction. 

[MigL]

So JC likes A Yang.
I still like J Biden, although E Warren has grown on me like she has on a lot of people.

What about you, INow ?
( and everyone else also ? )

[iNow]

I can’t figure out who my #2 choice is in case my #1 doesn’t make the first round during caucus. I’ve got 3 weeks to decide. 

I’ve been pretty comfortable with and excited about Warren for going on a few months now. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

22 hours ago, MigL said:

So JC likes A Yang.
I still like J Biden, although E Warren has grown on me like she has on a lot of people.

What about you, INow ?
( and everyone else also ? )

I do. I think he is the most genuine and balanced candidate in the race.

It also helps that most of his ideas align fairly well with mine, as I've been pro UBI since the recession of the early eighties, and was in favour of Canada's VAT (our GST-Goods and Services Tax) when it was introduced to replace the hidden Manufacturers wholesale level tax that was in place back in 1991 (I was definitely in the minority on this...and subsequent governments got in promising to repeal it...but it's still here...guess what...we have to pay our bills somehow). 

I do think the $1,000 a month (Yang's "Freedom Dividend") is a fair bit higher than I would advocate, but in principle I think it is right, and economically workable, for reasons right across the "Right/Left" spectrum if done correctly...and I think Yang could do it. It might be tough to implement but nothing in comparison to the suggestions of Warren and Sanders. (Sanders is at least honest about his socialist approach, but seems not to understand the benefits of free enterprise and capitalism...which need to be properly harnessed for everyone's benefit...not killed) Warren has incredible energy but I find her more than a little disingenuous...apparently by recent polls others have as well...which is a shame as I think she would be a capable POTUS.

I think Biden's platform is solid except I don't think he is up to the task. I hope he picks a good VP if he wins the nomination.

I didn't like Butigieg's comments blaming Trump for the Iranians shooting down of Ukraine Flight 752, but I think he is capable and his platform reasonable. Same for Klobuchar, who I think won the last debate.

I probably like Tulsi Gabbard second to Yang. She is another rare one that is willing to address people right across the political spectrum and avoid the identity politics. (which was the downfall of Booker...and with Harris...Harris also struggling with honesty)

[MigL]

Excellent breakdown.
Now lets sit back and see what actually happens.

[iNow]

2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

do think the $1,000 a month (Yang's "Freedom Dividend") is a fair bit higher than I would advocate, but in principle I think it is right, and economically workable, for reasons right across the "Right/Left" spectrum if done correctly...and I think Yang could do it. It might be tough to implement but nothing in comparison to the suggestions of Warren and Sanders

If the US government is good at anything, it’s cutting checks in specific amounts to specific people on a recurring basis.

[iNow]

Regarding tonight’s debate, Warren is crushing the closing arguments and making the electability case quite well. She’s clear and crisp and ready. 

Biden is having perhaps his best performance, though he still seems to struggle finding his words and coupling his content with his passion. I feel his time has passed, but haven’t given up on him. 

Klobuchar keeps shoehorning in her anecdotes and jokes, but feels a bit forced. She’s trying to play jazz by reading music on sheets and it’s not my favorite thing. 

Steyer is making great points, but is reminding me he understands the issues, but doesn't understand how we can resolve them.  Meanwhile, Buttegieg reminds me he is great at speaking without saying anything of substance. Crazy smart dude, but WTF does he really stand for (beyond sound smart and slick)?

[MigL]

Is A Yang the only visible minority left in the running ?
Seems kind of strange for the Democrat party that has broad support from minorities.
If it wasn't for the couple of women still in the running, it would be the other party of the 'rich, old, white' men.

( not gonna lie. A Yang mentioned this very same thing )

Edited January 15, 2020 by MigL

[iNow]

Yes, and most agree it’s an issue, but one not easily fixed by rules. The minority candidates weren’t able to raise enough money. That’s why they dropped out. 

There’s a saying that presidential campaigns don’t end, they just run out of money. This happened to Gilibrand then Harris then Castro then Booker. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

3 hours ago, MigL said:

Is A Yang the only visible minority left in the running ?
Seems kind of strange for the Democrat party that has broad support from minorities.
If it wasn't for the couple of women still in the running, it would be the other party of the 'rich, old, white' men.

( not gonna lie. A Yang mentioned this very same thing )

Another of note is Tulsi. Does she count as visible minority?

 There's also African American Deval Patrick (I knew he was still in, but had to look the name up)

[iNow]

There were rules agreed to from the start. Those rules included thresholds for debate qualification. The folks all of your are citing didn't pass the threshold. Not everyone gets a cookie. I didn't qualify for the debate, either... and you should rightly laugh me out of the room if I started bitching about it online.

[MigL]

Ah OK.
There are others still in the running, they just didn't qualify for the debate ?

[iNow]

1 hour ago, MigL said:

Ah OK.
There are others still in the running, they just didn't qualify for the debate ?

Sort of, yes. It all falls down to how we each define "in the running." 538 has an excellent model to forecast, and all of "the others" are in the 1% range.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

They also have a summary of all of the various individual polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

 

[MigL]

5 hours ago, iNow said:

and you should rightly laugh me out of the room if I started bitching about it online.

I, personally, would love to see you in the debate, INow.
You might actually answer some questions, instead of 'dancing' around them ( like most politicians ).

[iNow]

Thanks, and a few of my colleagues through the years have suggested I should run for office given how closely I follow it, but I’d never put myself or my family through that hell. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

Got a little heated between Warren and Sanders after the debate.

Knowing her history with the facts, I suspect Warren deliberately took something she and Sanders discussed in 2018 out of context, and Bernie refused to confirm it...but who knows?

She accused him of calling her a liar after the debate and refused to shake his hand:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/15/politics/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-debate-audio/index.html

 

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/neverwarren-trends-to-top-spot-after-her-enormous-debate-fiasco-l3oVMWKZa0Shk-GUqDtu-g

[iNow]

Manufactured nonsense. The media has been horny to find a way of putting Warren against Sanders and they’re using this. 

Bernie can support women for POTUS and still think gender may be a handicap with our less tolerant voters. I think the conversation did happen and that’s the basis of it, but none of us knows.  We weren’t there, hence the energy across the Twittersphere. 

She made a smart strategic move and used it as an opportunity to differentiate herself from Bernie all while addressing the electability argument head on. Now the Sanders supporters have their panties in a bunch and are acting like a bunch of toddlers who need a nap and a Snickers and they keep reminding us of why so many millions of voters keep leaning Trump while they continue mandating consistent purity tests even for those who overlap with them on 99% of the issues. 
 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by iNow

[J.C.MacSwell]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

Manufactured nonsense. Bernie can support women for POTUS and still think gender may be a handicap with our less tolerant voters. 
 

Quite possibly what occurred...and Warren "remembered" it as Bernie claiming "a women can't win", which is what she accused him of.

5 minutes ago, iNow said:

 She made a smart strategic move and used it to take on the electability argument head on. Now the Sanders supporters have their panties in a bunch and are acting like a bunch of toddlers who need a nap and a Snickers and they keep reminding us of why so many millions of voters keep meaning Trump while they mandate consistent purity tests. 
 

 

I really don't believe she did. I think she tried to throw Bernie under the bus and stumbled under it herself.

I guess time will tell.