U.S. Democratic Primary

[J.C.MacSwell]

1 minute ago, iNow said:

According to the link I shared, he had:

Round ONE: 5,760 supporters
Round TWO: 1,124 supporters

While it's only 62% of precincts reporting thus far, this result pretty clearly means he didn't meet the 15% viability threshold in the majority of precincts. About 4,600 of the people who chose him in Round 1 were forced to choose someone else in Round 2 (or go home and not given anyone their vote).

So where does the 1.1 percent come from? Neither round fits the bill.

Voter turnout would be above 150,000 but below 200,000...correct?

[iNow]

Of those districts reporting, he had enough to secure 1% of their delegates after that 2nd/final round was finished. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by iNow

[J.C.MacSwell]

44 minutes ago, iNow said:

Iowa Update (finally!!): 62% of precincts reporting / these numbers will shift -

 

1) Pete @ 27%

2) Bernie @ 25%

3) Warren @ 18%

4) Biden @ 15%

5) Amy @ 12%

 

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa?xid=ec_crm_iowa_d

For @J.C.MacSwell - Yang @ 1.1%

That could be the death knell for Biden, South Carolina notwithstanding. Klobuchar and possibly Buttigieg is well positioned to benefit if he continues to drop.

Warren should have positioned to be there for that seeming inevitability, but chose to tack and cover Bernie, who always goes left regardless of the forecast.

Edited February 4, 2020 by J.C.MacSwell

[iNow]

It definitely hurts Biden. Klobuchar really needed to break into top 3 to have a shot (maybe top 4, but she didn't even get that).

Pete needed first and it appears he got it. He’ll be raising massive funds through donations the rest of this week. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

It definitely hurts Biden. Klobuchar really needed to break into top 3 to have a shot (maybe top 4, but she didn't even get that).

Pete needed first and it appears he got it. He’ll be raising massive funds through donations the rest of this week. 

12% looks pretty strong for her at this point. Especially being a moderate just behind Biden (obviously not Nationally).

She is still a dark horse, but I think this helps.

23 minutes ago, iNow said:

Of those districts reporting, he had enough to secure 1% of their delegates after that 2nd/final round was finished. 

Thanks. So well above 1.1% of the vote, though not significantly different from his polling numbers (there were a lot of optimistic claims that his online support was unreached by the polls)

I mean Klobuchar 12% to Yang 1%...not good optics for a guy that has numbers very close Nationally.

[iNow]

2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

12% looks pretty strong for her at this point.

I understand the point you’re making, but those delegates will go to someone else if she can’t pull back ahead before the convention. 

There are basically 3 “tickets” out of Iowa. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Those are the only people who will get donations, media coverage, and consequently votes in the next primaries these next few weeks. 

Klobuchar needed to surprise people with a strong showing. 5th place is not a strong showing. There’s no medal on the podium for her. She needed to outperform her polling. She’s been no better than 5th place for months. She didn’t outperform. She didn’t surprise. She came in exactly where we expected.

5th. That means 4 other people did better than her. That’s fatal to her campaign... unless by some miracle she happens to come in 1st next week in New Hampshire. TBH... I’d bet a few Benjamin’s that just ain’t gonna happen. She’s done. Mark my words.

Biden is in similar territory. He is running out of money fast and raising more is gonna be that much harder since he only made 4th. The wildcard is he’s a former VP of the well loved Obama, so we’ll have to wait and see how he does in the next 3 contests (NH, NV, and SC), but he’s wounded and bleeding badly after getting embarrassed in Iowa last night. 

Edited February 5, 2020 by iNow

[J.C.MacSwell]

13 minutes ago, iNow said:

I understand the point you’re making, but those delegates will go to someone else if she can’t pull back ahead before the convention. 

Obviously.

 

14 minutes ago, iNow said:

There are basically 3 “tickets” out of Iowa. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Those are the only people who will get donations, media coverage, and consequently votes in the next primaries these next few weeks. 

 

Why 3? Why not 4? Why not just 2? It's not the Olympics.

16 minutes ago, iNow said:

 

Klobuchar needed to surprise people with a strong showing. 5th place is not a strong showing. There’s no medal on the podium for her. She needed to outperform her polling. She’s been no better than 5th place for months. She didn’t outperform. She didn’t surprise. She came in exactly where we expected.

Okay...I have to admit that Bronze Medalist Warren did better...but Klobuchar wasn't expected to have 2/3 of her support at this point.

 

23 minutes ago, iNow said:

 

5th. That means 4 other people did better than her. That’s fatal to her campaign... unless by some miracle she happens to come in 1st next week in New Hampshire. TBH... I’d bet a few Benjamin’s that just ain’t gonna happen. She’s done. Mark my words.

 

Your Benjamins are pretty safe...very doubtful she wins New Hampshire...but few would count her totally out if she improves above 5th...even fewer would consider Iowa to have been fatal.

 

28 minutes ago, iNow said:

Biden is in similar territory. 

Maybe. But if so Klobuchar's in the passing lane.(Is Biden still driving? Or is he in the back seat having a nap?)

41 minutes ago, iNow said:

He is running out of money fast and raising more is gonna be that much harder since he only made 4th. The wildcard is he’s a former VP of the well loved Obama, so we’ll have to wait and see how he does in the next 3 contests (NH, NV, and SC), but he’s wounded and bleeding badly after getting embarrassed in Iowa last night. 

Agree. I expect abandonment like rat's off a sinking ship...but I don't think Klobuchar's ship has sailed quite yet.

Do I expect her to win? No. But I think she will hang in for a while, especially as Biden slips.

[iNow]

5 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Why 3? Why not 4? Why not just 2? It's not the Olympics.

Good question. That’s just how it’s been for decades in every single election season we’ve had.

Number 1 gets the biggest bump, Number 2 gets honorable mention, and Number 3 remains a long shot, but still in it.

The rest, however? They dropped the ball. They don’t get a trophy for attendance. Thanks for playing, but time to go home. 

Im exaggerating slightly for effect and to drive home the point (since other states could change things), but only slightly.  

[StringJunky]

Just seen Nancy Pelosi rip up a copy of Trump's State of The Union Address this morning. November is going to be one acrimonious election. The Dems have got to keep together in their primaries and not cut each other up bickering  in their selection process.

[J.C.MacSwell]

9 hours ago, iNow said:

Good question. That’s just how it’s been for decades in every single election season we’ve had.

Number 1 gets the biggest bump, Number 2 gets honorable mention, and Number 3 remains a long shot, but still in it.

The rest, however? They dropped the ball. They don’t get a trophy for attendance. Thanks for playing, but time to go home. 

Im exaggerating slightly for effect and to drive home the point (since other states could change things), but only slightly.  

I think we pretty much agree on the principles you outlined, just not to the same degree.

Given Biden may be in trouble in his very moderate lane, where do you think that support may end up? I see Buttigieg and Klobuchar, possibly  Bloomberg, gaining from it, with a possible multiplier if it comes with perceived "electability".

CNN quote: 

"God, it's good to be in New Hampshire," Biden said as he began his speech in a Girls Inc. gym in Nashua. "You have no idea how happy we were to be headed to New Hampshire and Nashua."

JCs Translation: God, it's good to get out of Iowa...

[iNow]

2 hours ago, StringJunky said:

Just seen Nancy Pelosi rip up a copy of Trump's State of The Union Address this morning.

It interests me how viral this moment has become, yet people ignore how she reached out to shake his hand at the beginning and he snubbed her, very clearly seeing it and walking right past it (or how he treated the SOTU as a campaign rally attacking democrats and lying every few words... but this thread isn’t about that). Acrimonious was a good word choice. 
 

 

2 hours ago, StringJunky said:

The Dems have got to keep together in their primaries and not cut each other up bickering  in their selection process

QFT, though historically that doesn’t happen until there’s a clear front runner or after the convention. 

1 hour ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Given Biden may be in trouble in his very moderate lane, where do you think that support may end up?

Pete, or maybe Bloomberg later, but the Bloomberg approach is a bit of a bank shot strategy where the needle must be perfectly threaded to work. 

[MigL]

The US is a big country, INow, with differing demographics.
The preferences of delegates in one state may not coincide with those of another.
You make it sound like the race is over after just getting out of the starting blocks.

If there's one thing I've learned over the last three years, it's that American politics has become full of surprises.
How else to explain the popularity of arguably the worst POTUS ever.
D Trump is polling at almost 50 % approval; higher than B Obama at the same point in his Presidency.
All while in the midst of an impeachment trial.

Whomever Democrats pick as their Presidential candidate, they had better make sure he/she can defeat D Trump.
Otherwise, no matter how 'lofty' ( or lefty  ) their platform, they will only be the runner up.

Edited February 5, 2020 by MigL

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

It interests me how viral this moment has become, yet people ignore how she reached out to shake his hand at the beginning and he snubbed her, very clearly seeing it and walking right past it (or how he treated the SOTU as a campaign rally attacking democrats and lying every few words... but this thread isn’t about that). Acrimonious was a good word choice. 
 

Like she said, she took the polite option. I read his SOTU and it was FOS.

[iNow]

1 hour ago, MigL said:

How else to explain the popularity of arguably the worst POTUS ever.

Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda. Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda. Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda. Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda.Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda...

But this thread is about the Democratic primary, so would be helpful if we could avoid the Trump blackhole... in fact, let's not even approach the event horizon or Schwartzchild... erm... Orange Child?... radius here

[J.C.MacSwell]

3 hours ago, iNow said:

Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda. Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda. Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda. Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda.Coordinated, focused, and repetitive propaganda...

But this thread is about the Democratic primary, so would be helpful if we could avoid the Trump blackhole... in fact, let's not even approach the event horizon or Schwartzchild... erm... Orange Child?... radius here

Isn't Trump the  "primary" target?

Seems like the reporting of the Iowa caucus has stalled out at 71%. This is past the point of blaming the faulty app alone.

[iNow]

35 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Seems like the reporting of the Iowa caucus has stalled out at 71%.

The big population centers have all reported. Any change we see with additional results at this point will likely be pretty marginal.

Btw - It's at 75% now

[swansont]

Iowa sends 56 delegates out of 4366. A little over 1%

The demographics change markedly after NH. I would guess the only real impact here is fundraising  

[iNow]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

I would guess the only real impact here is fundraising

That’s is a key one for sure, but there is an additional impact on future voters decisions / choices, as well. 

When choosing your bracket in the Super Bowl for example, your team choice is influenced by performance in previous games. Same applies to some extent in our elections. 

[iNow]

With Iowa (sort of) behind us and New Hampshire upcoming, I think Pete could have a chance at this thing as long as he doesn’t get squished in Nevada and South Carolina.

Time will tell and the worst I can be is wrong, but that’s where my gut is right now. 

FYI - 538 is reporting that Yang is laying off staff members. Not a good sign during a time when candidates need to be rapidly ramping up

[J.C.MacSwell]

So who gets centre stage tonight? Bernie, or Pete? (the two leaders in the Iowa with 99% now reported)

Do they switch if we get updates and the lead changes? 

[iNow]

2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

So who gets centre stage tonight? Bernie, or Pete? (the two leaders in the Iowa with 99% now reported)

Do they switch if we get updates and the lead changes? 

Bernie got more votes. Him and Pete are tied for state delegate "equivalents." I think it's Warren's turn to shine, but Biden is not bringing it and he's got to show up tonight if he's gonna get out of this rut. His poor performance is giving a lot of steam to Michael Bloomberg who's hired several thousand more staff members and pumped a massive amount of cash into new ads since the Iowa cluster

[iNow]

Warren came to play. Pete took all the incoming. Steyer had some good moments, as did Klobuchar. Yang played his old hits, but felt a bit off key. Biden disappointed... again. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

10 hours ago, iNow said:

Warren came to play. Pete took all the incoming. Steyer had some good moments, as did Klobuchar. Yang played his old hits, but felt a bit off key. Biden disappointed... again. 

They all spoke well (I thought Biden started poorly but he recovered well) . The winner depends on if you buy what they are selling.

If I had to pick a winner it would be the Democratic Party. The debate was well moderated, and candidates generally respected each other and weren't talking over and interrupting each other as in past debates...and no overt personal attacks.

Much better performance by Warren, attacking other's positions without seeming to attack them personally and getting her points across. I wouldn't say she won but this should help her IMO.

I would say Bernie did very well. If you want socialism you have to like how he performed, and was as always forthright in his responses. So if you believe the economy won't sputter while he redistributes goods and services in a fairer manner then he won the debate hands down. How do you pay for Health Care for All? It's already being spent, just not evenly or equitably, while profits are being made. Besides...there are unlimited $15/hr government jobs for everyone...even for those in the health care insurance industry that he will end...to fall back on...

Klobuchar might have had her best debate yet. Having moderate positions make it harder respond than when you believe in magic...and she still did very well. For me, outside of Yang, she won the debate.

Biden still had centre stage...I wondered how it would look with the same responses in say Pete's position, Pete who is now ahead of him after Iowa.

Steyer seemed in command at times, though mostly attacking Trump.

Yang spoke well. I wish he would focus even more on the positive secondary economic effects of UBI, his freedom dividend. ("Ask not what your $1000 Freedom Dividend can do for you...ask what the Freedom Dividend X 1,000 can do for your community" JCM circa Feb 2020 )

Buttigieg, as usual, spoke very well but I think he lost out on a chance to appeal to Black voters, currently the achilles heal of his support. He struggled with explaining why Black convictions for marijuana possession went up significantly during his tenure as mayor. He seemed to be taken blindside and answered in a way that I don't think he would have if better prepared for it. Warren was asked if his answer was substantial enough (IIRC), and replied "no" but instead of attacking him further made her own points on systemic racism...I think that looked much better for her, and the damage was already done to Pete by the moderator.

 

 

 

[MigL]

Thanks for the breakdown JC.
But unless someone breaks out and really resonates with the voters, I think the Democrats are trying to choose the candidate who will come in second to D Trump in the November election.
If you're just 'preaching to the choir' ( your base ), you can't do any better than H Clinton did 3 yrs ago.
Even after al the crap he's pulled, and an impeachment, D Trump is still polling high enough to win it.
Unless one of the Democratic candidates can steal away some of that support, I don't see them ousting D Trump.

[J.C.MacSwell]

On 2/8/2020 at 4:40 PM, MigL said:

Thanks for the breakdown JC.
But unless someone breaks out and really resonates with the voters, I think the Democrats are trying to choose the candidate who will come in second to D Trump in the November election.
If you're just 'preaching to the choir' ( your base ), you can't do any better than H Clinton did 3 yrs ago.
Even after al the crap he's pulled, and an impeachment, D Trump is still polling high enough to win it.
Unless one of the Democratic candidates can steal away some of that support, I don't see them ousting D Trump.

That base is seemingly more divided, and Trump's GOP probably more united, than they were 3 years ago.

So what do we think? Bloomberg to the rescue? I can't see Bernie's grassroots crowd providing support for a Billionaire taking over. Same to a lesser extent if it's Buttigieg with his "wine cave" of billionaires. (I think he's had 40 support his campaign)

Biden? Would his supporters wake up in time to vote on election day? (why do they put the supporters looking like they're falling asleep behind him when he's speaking...are they trying to make him seem energetic by comparison?)

Warren? Too bad she chased Bernie to the Left before accusing him of being a sexist...if she had stayed more moderate and praised his good intentions she'd be winning this...with at least a good shot at beating Trump (especially if they hadn't impeached the SOB to his benefit!) 

Yang? I'm still hoping but he's still a long shot.

Klobuchar? Steyer? Gabbard? Long shots.

Michelle Obama? Still not too late...

Romney, LOL? 

Trump himself? (DNC gotta stop Sanders somehow) https://politics.theonion.com/dnc-mulls-asking-donald-trump-to-run-as-democrat-in-eff-1841432132

“He’s obviously not our first choice, but Trump has a track record of winning elections, not to mention he does well with the conservative voters we’ll need to swing some red states blue—if that’s who we need to ask to ensure Bernie doesn’t win, we’ll do it,” said DNC chairman Tom Perez,