U.S. Democratic Primary

[iNow]

We’ll know more after Tuesday night in New Hampshire, but it’s the Nevada and South Carolina primaries that will likely be the most informative 

[J.C.MacSwell]

Just now, iNow said:

We’ll know more after Tuesday night in New Hampshire, but it’s the Nevada and South Carolina primaries that will likely be the most informative 

Lot's of polling out of NH, mostly with Sanders leading Buttigieg, followed by Warren, Biden Klobuchar.

The next debate will take place prior to the Nevada and South Carolina primaries. With Bloomberg added. It will be interesting to see how he does and how the others react to him.

It might be not until after Super Tuesday that we get a real sense, and it may still be wide open after that.

[iNow]

Bernie leading and Biden limping Bloomberg is loving. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

My current New Hampshire prediction:

1.Sanders   2.Buttigieg   3.Warren   4,5 Klobuchar/Biden (toss up)   6.Yang

I would not at all be surprised to see Biden come 5th

[iNow]

8 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

My current New Hampshire prediction:

1.Sanders   2.Buttigieg   3.Warren   4,5 Klobuchar/Biden (toss up)   6.Yang

I would not at all be surprised to see Biden come 5th

Sounds reasonable to me. Also, 538 made a similar call in their podcast last night

[J.C.MacSwell]

54 minutes ago, iNow said:

Sounds reasonable to me. Also, 538 made a similar call in their podcast last night

Any link (I briefly tried a few google searches but nothing came up for last night)

I just realized they are an hour + long...

Here's the polls I generally look at: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

Edited February 10, 2020 by J.C.MacSwell

[iNow]

1 hour ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Any link (I briefly tried a few google searches but nothing came up for last night)

They recorded it live last night in Manchester, New Hampshire, but only got published to their feed today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/live-from-manchester-the-politics-podcast-previews-the-new-hampshire-primary/

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by iNow

[J.C.MacSwell]

The link (currently) seems to be people playing some estimating game, but not as to upcoming NH results.

[J.C.MacSwell]

Nice to see Klobuchar with her double digit percent lead, which she has maintained for some time now...

Explanation: They literally released early results of her having 8 votes (double anyone else) out of a total of 27, while the polls are still open.

Nice little boost for her...

Can't get advertising cheaper than that!

Edited February 11, 2020 by J.C.MacSwell

[iNow]

It’s a tradition. There are 2 or 3 tiny towns in NH that begin voting at midnight. Everyone in the town must vote and they get to report the results to the media by like 12:15am. #DixvilleNotch

Yang has dropped out of the race

Michael Bennett is out, too

[iNow]

On 2/10/2020 at 2:17 PM, J.C.MacSwell said:

My current New Hampshire prediction:

1.Sanders   2.Buttigieg   3.Warren   4,5 Klobuchar/Biden (toss up)   6.Yang

I would not at all be surprised to see Biden come 5th

Klobuchar cleaned up with the over 65 crowd and did well with 45+ too. Took a solid 3rd place. 

Warren was a leader for under 45 voters, often ahead of Buttigieg in some age blocs, but not enough to hit top 3 and Bernie took the night. 

Biden left early and flew to South Carolina. His “I’m the most electable” shtick is taking a hit with all of these 4th-5th place finishes. 

[MigL]

I have to wonder if the Biden 'brand' has taken a hit because of all the accusations made by D Trump and Republicans.
A lot of people may be thinking "where there's smoke, there is fire".

I guess my 'virtual' vote, now, has to be for E Warren.
But she'd better kick it into higher gear.

[iNow]

12 minutes ago, MigL said:

I have to wonder if the Biden 'brand' has taken a hit because of all the accusations made by D Trump and Republicans.

Of course, it did. Even some of my otherwise intelligent neighbors are downright convinced he’s engaged in criminal acts. His poor debate and campaign trail performance has only amplified his problems. 

[iNow]

Deval Patrick is now out, too

Edited February 12, 2020 by iNow

[swansont]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Deval Patrick is now out, too

Who?

(I think there was a tweet I saw about how his whole supporter will be disappointed)

[Phi for All]

14 hours ago, MigL said:

I have to wonder if the Biden 'brand' has taken a hit because of all the accusations made by D Trump and Republicans.
A lot of people may be thinking "where there's smoke, there is fire".

It worked on Hilary. The Republicans and FOX enjoyed taking a hatchet to her. I'm sure folks will still be smelling smoke after Biden is acquitted a couple of times, after massive federal investigations conclude they didn't have the time to find enough evidence. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

12 minutes ago, swansont said:

Who?

(I think there was a tweet I saw about how his whole supporter will be disappointed)

She's a nice lady. If her daughter-in-law had supported him as well he would have easily had twice the support.

[iNow]

Analysis I’ve encountered today:

Yes, Bernie won, but 3/4th of New Hampshire voted for somebody else. 

Buttigeig would’ve been the clear winner, but Amy Klobuchar ate away his core voters. Pete’s taken a play out of the Trump playbook and never turns down an interview. He’s on every news program, Sunday show, podcast, sport channel, horse lovers weekly, and knitting competition you can find. 

Bernie and Warren are unlikely to do well in Nevada due to the high number of voters that are union members (who love the healthcare they’ve negotiated and don’t want to surrender it to a government plan).

Former Senator from Nevada / former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (he was before Mitch McConnell) might put his finger on the proverbial scale and speak up in support someone... but who?

Finally, the current shine on Bloomberg is likely to wear off once he steps on to the debate stage and the message is no longer a quaffed controlled paid for advertisement. 

Bernie would be 80 years old on his first day of the presidency 

Edited February 13, 2020 by iNow

[iNow]

Tonight’s debate in Vegas is feisty! More octagon than cspan and Bloomberg is taking some hits. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

On 2/8/2020 at 12:19 PM, J.C.MacSwell said:

They all spoke well (I thought Biden started poorly but he recovered well) . The winner depends on if you buy what they are selling.

If I had to pick a winner it would be the Democratic Party.

Okay. I only saw highlights from last night but if I had to pick a winner this time it was the GOP. (dare I say Trump?)

It seems Bloomberg struggled, especially early.

Bernie did fine Democratic Candidacy wise, but took some hits that may hurt him if he wins it.

Warren was certainly on the war path (forgive me), but again did very well. (I think the attacks on Bloomberg were fair game...he just didn't handle them well) 

Biden was there (he was, wasn't he?)

Everyone else was sub par? 

Where is the candidate to beat Trump? Bernie could start pulling away here...

[iNow]

In the 90s, Clinton was unelectable. 

In 2008, Obama was unelectable.

In 2016, Trump was unelectable. 

Every one of them became president. 

Point being?

I find these conversations about electability and continued prognostications about who can beat Trump rather silly. We just don’t know. 

[CharonY]

3 hours ago, iNow said:

I find these conversations about electability and continued prognostications about who can beat Trump rather silly. We just don’t know. 

Indeed. It is also largely self-defeating as folks assume what others may assume and adjust their votes/polls according to the assumption which creates a feedback of bad assumptions, er so to say. Electability often is connected to identity first and political orientation second which creates complicated situations as outlined by this article (among others).

[Airbrush]

The intelligence agencies reported to Sanders a month ago that Russia was helping Sanders to win his primary.  Also intelligence believes Putin is helping Trump, although Trump denies it.  In Trump's last rally he remarked that he wanted to run against Sanders.  Why?  It looks like Putin and Trump want Sanders to win the primary because they have something special to damage Sanders in the general election.  Just a thought.

[iNow]

No, it’s because moderate republicans who hate Trump and could be convinced to vote democratic this year will likely instead stay home if it’s Bernie who gets nominated. 

It’s about suppressing turnout among those potentially willing to vote against your opponent. 

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, iNow said:

No, it’s because moderate republicans who hate Trump and could be convinced to vote democratic this year will likely instead stay home if it’s Bernie who gets nominated. 

It’s about suppressing turnout among those potentially willing to vote against your opponent. 

Yes, I think so. He's a step too far for Republican-leaning floaters. They need to be moderate, straight and probably male.... thinking in purely tactical terms. Unfortunately, I might add.