Phi for All Posted February 29, 2020 Posted February 29, 2020 3 hours ago, zapatos said: All polls are based on what people think at the time it is taken. With the tanking of the stock market and the spread of COVID-19, by the time November rolls around I might be able to beat Trump in the general election. I have some ideas about your campaign.... 1
zapatos Posted February 29, 2020 Posted February 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, Phi for All said: I have some ideas about your campaign.... LOL! I LOVE IT!
MigL Posted February 29, 2020 Posted February 29, 2020 I'd vote for you, Zap. You're not over 65, are you ?
zapatos Posted February 29, 2020 Posted February 29, 2020 Haha, no not yet. When I run I'll pledge to fight for meaningful actions to reduce gun deaths, guarantee working wages, stop letting the few get rich on the backs of the many, ensure government sponsored health coverage for all, stop treating everyone who needs assistance like they are lazy, take fiscal responsibility seriously, treat people fairly, hire back everyone who has quit the State and Justice departments, and issue a global apology to everyone who was offended by recent dick behavior in the White House. In other words I expect to be unelectable, or if elected, to be stonewalled at every turn. 1
iNow Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 Biden’s up over 50%. Bernie is second with 15%. Next is Steyer, Pete, and Warren. Only 12% reporting so far tho, but Joe has this one in the bag.
iNow Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 Despite posting his best performance yet, a healthy third just below Bernie, Tom Steyer has just (erm... finally) dropped out of the race
CharonY Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 I think you may overestimate the collective memory of folks. 10 hours ago, zapatos said: All polls are based on what people think at the time it is taken. With the tanking of the stock market and the spread of COVID-19, by the time November rolls around I might be able to beat Trump in the general election.
dimreepr Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 (edited) 19 hours ago, CharonY said: A big issue with those polls is that without further analyses they are not really predictive of the election outcome due to the weird system. Really only a small subset of the population is going to determine the next president. And they don't know who they are... With the potential devastation of COVID-19... Edited March 1, 2020 by dimreepr
iNow Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, dimreepr said: And they don't know who they are... With the potential devastation of COVID-19... I wouldn’t expect the spread in Michigan, Wisconsin, amd Pennsylvania to be so severe that enough people died from it to meaningfully affect the election results.
dimreepr Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, iNow said: I wouldn’t expect the spread in Michigan, Wisconsin, amd Pennsylvania to be so severe that enough people died from it to meaningfully affect the election results. I imagine your right, not because of the deaths, but because the fear has a limited time to spread... Sorry, I know this is also off topic, but the relevance grows...
zapatos Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 9 hours ago, CharonY said: I think you may overestimate the collective memory of folks. I'm not sure I was referencing their memory. Would you mind expanding on that a bit?
zapatos Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 After thinking about it... I don't believe the impact of COVID-19 and the economy will be a thing of the past by November. But my larger point was that suggesting the poll numbers may change in Trump's favor in the future if certain things occur may be fun to speculate about, but is not very meaningful. There are a nearly infinite number of things that can occur between now and November, some that would help Trump and some that would help the Democrats. As an example was given about a scenario that could help Trump, I gave an example that could hurt Trump. By posting the poll I was only trying to indicate what people were thinking now.
MigL Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 Don't know whether the virus outbreak will hurt or help D Trump in November. But the stock market ( and my retirement savings ) is taking a hit. The economy has been No. 1 on D Trump's bragging list for the past two years, and if that goes in the dumps, like 2008-9, he might as well kiss his asinine Presidency goodbye. ( and as much as I dislike D Trump, I really think that's too high a priceto pay, to be rid of him )
zapatos Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 I read an article that shows the three most likely scenarios of the coronavirus pandemic easing up in either the first, second or third quarters of this year, with the second quarter being most likely. That would be followed by an economic rebound in the quarter following the easing. If the coronavirus pandemic does indeed ease up in the second quarter then Trump could see the economy rebounding just in time for the election. And as we've seen so many times, the economy is a major driver for who wins the election.
MigL Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 Back to the OP... Does anyone think J Biden's vote percentage, more than twice B sander's, is the result of Democrats being afraid that B Sanders actually might take the nomination ? Or is this simply a fluke ( throw old Joe a bone ) ? E Warren seems to be relegated to 'runner up' status. I hope this doesn't give M Bloomberg the opportunity to come up the middle. One Billionaire has done enough damage to the Presidency; don't relish the thought of another. 1
CharonY Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 6 hours ago, zapatos said: I'm not sure I was referencing their memory. Would you mind expanding on that a bit? Mostly because often these events have only a short term impact. The release of the FBI letter just before the election hurt Hillary Clinton, as they were close to the election. But folks just tend to remember the last thing that circulated through the media (impeachment is ancient history by now). So unless there is a story connecting whatever recent thing is happening directly to Trump, I kinda doubt that it will have a huge impact. As you said, it would depend on the economy at the time of the election. It should also be added that the way Trump and his followers operate, there are no bad stories (because obviously they are are all fake).
iNow Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 (edited) 51 minutes ago, MigL said: Does anyone think J Biden's vote percentage, more than twice B sander's, is the result of Democrats being afraid that B Sanders actually might take the nomination ? Or is this simply a fluke ( throw old Joe a bone ) ? Biden’s support has always been high among black voters, but the real split here is between young and old. Those under 45 vote Bernie. Those over 45 vote Biden. This is true regardless of skin color. Where Biden is struggling is that there are too many other “moderate” candidates in his lane “stealing his” votes. His vote share is being split between him, Pete, Amy, Steyer until this weekend, and now Bloomberg starting Tuesday. What this means is Bernie wins consistently, but only with around 30% of voters. Biden keeps lagging because the moderate lane hasn’t consolidated. Bernie’s winning, however, has helped him raise enormous money (I think $45M in February) while Biden had to put all of his eggs in the South Carolina basket and hasn’t been able to campaign anywhere else. Tuesday’s gonna be interesting... and telling. Edited March 1, 2020 by iNow
J.C.MacSwell Posted March 1, 2020 Posted March 1, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, MigL said: Back to the OP... Does anyone think J Biden's vote percentage, more than twice B sander's, is the result of Democrats being afraid that B Sanders actually might take the nomination ? Or is this simply a fluke ( throw old Joe a bone ) ? E Warren seems to be relegated to 'runner up' status. I hope this doesn't give M Bloomberg the opportunity to come up the middle. One Billionaire has done enough damage to the Presidency; don't relish the thought of another. Apparently, James Clyburn's endorsement of Biden just a couple days before the Primary vote was a fairly major factor in Biden's huge margin of victory: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/02/29/joe-biden-james-clyburn-south-carolina-icon-comeback/4912936002/ I don't think Bloomberg is going anywhere after watching the last couple debates, but who knows... Bernie could get a majority of delegates without the majority of votes, but if he falls short of that it will probably be a matter of by how much, and what tactics are used against him by the DNC et al. I don't think SC is an indication of "fear of Sanders" but there may be enough of that Tuesday to prevent him pretty much ending things at that point. Despite Biden's weak campaign so far, and not having the ads and infrastructure in place in Tuesday's States, his showing in SC and his name recognition might save him...at least to fight another day. Warren is toast. She never should have campaigned in the lane she did. That's Bernie's lane. He's already won it...it's just a matter of whether he can broaden it enough. As INow says...Tuesday will be interesting. +1 by the way MigL. Congrats on getting to 1000 points...(but any more and Warren wants to take away 2 percent a year from here on...) Speaking of the moderate lane...now Buttigieg is out: https://www.businessinsider.com/pete-buttigieg-drops-out-of-the-2020-presidential-race-2020-2 Is he making room for Bloomberg? VP Buttigieg? Edited March 1, 2020 by J.C.MacSwell
iNow Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 The best thing moderate candidates can do if they wish to stop Bernie is to drop out of the race and stop siphoning votes from Biden.
iNow Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 Exactly. JCM mentioned that at the tail end of his post
MigL Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 I don't worry about E Warren's 2 %, JC. I'm more worried about J Trudeau. Thanks for putting me 'over the top'. I'm celebrating with a Fernet Branca. ( think Jägermeister without the sugar, i.e. cough medicine )
zapatos Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MigL said: I'm celebrating with a Fernet Branca. I'm curious what your celebrations are like in Canada given your drink of choice! 🤪 Quote The beverage was originally promoted for its health benefits including as a remedy for “overeating, flatulence, hangovers, gas pains, (and) lifting yourself off the floor when you’ve mixed oysters and bananas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernet-Branca Edited March 2, 2020 by zapatos
MigL Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 It's a refined drink, for the discriminating gentleman who has achieved 1000 rep points . See A Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises, and Alfred Pennyworth at the Florence café. Besides, I used to drink it when I was a little kid in Italy.
CharonY Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 2 hours ago, iNow said: Exactly. JCM mentioned that at the tail end of his post Whoops, somehow missed that. Must be getting old(er).
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now