Will A.I destroy more jobs than it creates?

[Raider5678]

17 hours ago, Prometheus said:

I'm delighted to see lawyers on the redundant list. However, i think it far too optimistic. Lawyers (in the UK at least) come from a privileged sector of society and they will not let their children's future cushty jobs go easily. Once jobs for the affluent are started to be affected there will be significant push back (not that there won't be push back from the poor - but who cares about the poor).

2

It's already happening.

Do you know that Ctrl + F function on your computer?

That allows lawyers to scan thousands of papers millions of times faster than the average team of lawyers. 

So, instead of spending 12 hours a day scanning through documents looking for that one key piece of evidence, with a team of 15 expert lawyers........ it's now 1 lawyer using a computer.

 

A vast majority of lawyer work is repetitive paperwork. The TV shows are great and all when they show trial lawyers, but that's actually a relatively rare thing in the world of law. Most of it is just paperwork, which is highly susceptible to automation.

[Sensei]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry of Yore said:

Yeah, I'm an embedded software engineer and I'll bet you've flown in an aircraft with my code helping to get you to your destination safely and on time.  Y2K was way more than BCD for heaven's sake. 

I just gave example that your comment "Y2K problem is nonsense", was actually nonsense.

There is "limitless" errors in existing software caused by resolution of stored data in original software, hardware, signed/unsigned 8 bits, 16 bits, 32 bits etc.

The all these errors someday will appear. The majority of them, in unexpected moment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem

"The Year 2038 problem relates to representing time in many digital systems as the number of seconds passed since 1 January 1970 and storing it as a signed 32-bit binary integer. Such implementations cannot encode times after 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038. Just like the Y2K problem, the Year 2038 problem is caused by insufficient capacity of the chosen storage unit."

2 hours ago, Huckleberry of Yore said:

As engineers we don't design the safety of our systems to fail because the year has 3 zeroes in it.  Perhaps you are too young and don't have personal knowledge.

No. You are too self-confident about your skills and overestimates them. Then read this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_formatting_and_storage_bugs

NASA lost spacecraft due to such error. Nonsense you say? I will better no comment your skills...

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/09/130920-deep-impact-ends-comet-mission-nasa-jpl/

""Basically, it was a Y2K problem, where some software didn't roll over the calendar date correctly," said A'Hearn. The spacecraft's fault-protection software (ironically enough) would have misread any date after August 11, 2013, he said, triggering an endless series of computer reboots aboard Deep Impact."

"On September 20, 2013, NASA abandoned further attempts to contact the craft.[77] According to A'Hearn,[78] the most probable reason of software malfunction was a Y2K-like problem. August 11, 2013, 00:38:49, was 232 of one-tenth seconds from January 1, 2000, leading to speculation that a system on the craft tracked time in one-tenth second increments since January 1, 2000, and stored it in a signed 32-bit integer, which then overflowed at this time, similar to the Year 2038 problem.[79]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Impact_(spacecraft)#Contact_lost_and_end_of_mission

2 hours ago, Huckleberry of Yore said:

As I recall, there were a few credit card companies whose billing systems had some glitches, but the Y2K scare was an embarrassing time, and demonstrates how the masses can be lead into hysteria. 

There was no large issues, just because programmers and company management were persuaded problem is real, and they managed to fix their software prior date..

 

Year 2010

"For example, the SMS protocol uses BCD encoding for dates, so some mobile phone software incorrectly reported dates of messages as 2016 instead of 2010. Windows Mobile was the first software reported to have been affected by this glitch; in some cases WM6 changed the date of any incoming SMS message sent after 1 January 2010 from the year 2010 to 2016.[8][9]"

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Sensei

[Huckleberry of Yore]

13 hours ago, Sensei said:

I just gave example that your comment "Y2K problem is nonsense", was actually nonsense.

You are misquoting me!  I said the Y2K event was vastly overblown, overhyped, and a case of mistaken mass hysteria.  Just as appears to be happening with "AI".

13 hours ago, Sensei said:

NASA lost spacecraft due to such error.

Yeah, that's NASA.  Didn't they lose one over a temperature conversion bug too.

13 hours ago, Sensei said:

"The Year 2038 problem relates to 

I'm quite familiar with UTC.  We've been aware of the 2038 problem since forever, and here 20 years before the event have taken steps to upgrade.  (I have.)  Still, not sure why they don't just use that 32nd bit; I guess they can, it's just that existing software still needs to be upgraded.  Still, I hope you aren't suggesting planes fall out of the sky, or nuclear reactors will melt down on 1/18/38?

13 hours ago, Sensei said:

There was no large issues, just because programmers and company management were persuaded problem is real, and they managed to fix their software prior date..

You've proven my point.  Which was: the majority of the population didn't think programmers could fix all the problems so they vastly overestimated the risks.  I was there.  We had to set the date on all of our PCs and see if they were compliant.  I recall, "Yeah the old Packard Bell in the closet says it's 1900.  Should we upgrade the firmware?  No just throw it in the garbage."   And, my industrial controllers don't care what year it is, to make it so would be negligent.  They care about temperatures and motor speeds; worst case would have been activity log files would have reported the year as 1900 on timestamps.  Embarrassing but not catastrophic.

14 hours ago, Sensei said:

I will better no comment your skills...

I've never claimed engineers are perfect, they make mistakes all the time.  For example, a certain Asian nation put a nuclear reactor on the shoreline known to be susceptible to earthquakes and tsunamis.  Didn't work out too well, but we learn and move on.  That'll be the case with AI too.

Edit:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/25/technology/automation-davos-world-economic-forum.html

A very relevant article about managers at Davos secretly conspiring to eliminate jobs with autoamation.  Reminds me of my early career in commercial avionics.  The Fortune 100 company I worked went through a phase of investing and proposing we eliminate all software engineers by automatic code generation.  The idea was all you needed were systems engineers that wrote specs.  The new magical (and expensive) software system would automatically generate the code.  It was a boondoggle.  And most of us knew it would be, just not management.  They found out eventually, and some had to be "reskilled" (they were fired).

[swansont]

!

Moderator Note

The matter at hand is AI. Not the Y2K bug, or global warming. Please stay on topic.

 

[Fans]

This is a wrong question to ask, a fake perspective.

The A.I., in itself, is a tool. So a TOOL can not create or destroy jobs, by itself.

Happy day!

 

[Endy0816]

2 hours ago, Fans said:

This is a wrong question to ask, a fake perspective.

The A.I., in itself, is a tool. So a TOOL can not create or destroy jobs, by itself.

Happy day

AGI maybe. Ceases to be a tool. Hopefully sees us as partners.

.

[Yahya Al-Samawi]

On 1/26/2019 at 8:10 PM, Obsessed With Gaming said:

Also what will the world be like if there are no jobs left? Will we just sit around all day doing nothing? Or will there always be jobs regardless?

I believe if the AI took over all the jobs of humans that will not mean that we will go around doing nothing. Life will be like paradise is described we will have all the time for doing what we love, walking around, having fun, writing stories and books. every thing will b very cheep because no one one will complaint about his/her hard job, and production will continue 24/7.

I believe there must be no worries about  jobs or how we will live. Everything will be good if AI took over jobs.

Dr. Yahya AL-Samawi

Computer Science Department

[Endy0816]

On 4/4/2019 at 11:18 AM, Yahya Al-Samawi said:

I believe if the AI took over all the jobs of humans that will not mean that we will go around doing nothing. Life will be like paradise is described we will have all the time for doing what we love, walking around, having fun, writing stories and books. every thing will b very cheep because no one one will complaint about his/her hard job, and production will continue 24/7.

I believe there must be no worries about  jobs or how we will live. Everything will be good if AI took over jobs.

Dr. Yahya AL-Samawi

Computer Science Department

 

Thing is computers could and to an extent already do, make works of art and literature too.

If goods have any cost, we will still need jobs of some sort or general system of payments from the gov.

I think sheer physical law prevents true post scarcity, though most everything may be much less scarce.

[Yahya Al-Samawi]

7 hours ago, Endy0816 said:

Thing is computers could and to an extent already do, make works of art and literature too.

If goods have any cost, we will still need jobs of some sort or general system of payments from the gov.

I think sheer physical law prevents true post scarcity, though most everything may be much less scarce.

I believe there must be some work for human after all, but much more easier. That is what is most important. I work almost all the time because life needs that. I believe AI will make our life easier and funnier

[wtf]

We have more automation than at any time in human history, and also way more jobs. Of course there are always dislocations. The buggy whip makers had to "learn to code" as they say. You can train an algorithm to recognize a tumor, but a human being has to break the news to the sufferer. Of course there was a story recently that a guy was told he was going to die by a robot. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47510038. But in the future there will always be a need for "high touch" jobs. Remember that although the masses will be taught by machines, the elite will send their kids to schools staffed by gifted teachers. Humans aren't done yet. I hope. 

[dimreepr]

15 hours ago, wtf said:

We have more automation than at any time in human history, and also way more jobs. Of course there are always dislocations. The buggy whip makers had to "learn to code" as they say. You can train an algorithm to recognize a tumor, but a human being has to break the news to the sufferer. Of course there was a story recently that a guy was told he was going to die by a robot. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47510038. But in the future there will always be a need for "high touch" jobs. Remember that although the masses will be taught by machines, the elite will send their kids to schools staffed by gifted teachers. Humans aren't done yet. I hope. 

3

if we make it through a century the machines could do everything we can. if the machines can do everything, money, jobs will have little meaning.

[Ten oz]

7 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

if we make it through a century the machines could do everything we can. if the machines can do everything, money, jobs will have little meaning.

Money is simply a way humans organize efforts. I think at some point in the future humanity will need to move away from monetary systems. Money is just a structure and once machines can do everything a human can do that structure will obsolete. That said I assume money becoming obsolete is a ways off. 

On 4/4/2019 at 1:18 PM, Yahya Al-Samawi said:

I believe if the AI took over all the jobs of humans that will not mean that we will go around doing nothing. Life will be like paradise is described we will have all the time for doing what we love, walking around, having fun, writing stories and books. every thing will b very cheep because no one one will complaint about his/her hard job, and production will continue 24/7.

I believe there must be no worries about  jobs or how we will live. Everything will be good if AI took over jobs.

I think (my opinion) sex and the natural biological desire to pass our genetic information on is one of the primary driving factor in all societies. Having a good job and making good money is a means of securing a good mate. It is part of what motivate people to pursue careers, everyone cares about there place in society. It is rather unsophisticated really. Birds have colorful feathers, elaborate dances, nests, and etc to attract mates and Humans have nice cars, clothes, and etc to do the same. We are just animals after all. 

In the absences of a monetary system where humans continuously compete for resources and jockey for position in society something else will just fill that void. Sadly I don't think it will be walking around, having fun, writing stories and books. We will still compete for sex. People will still lie, cheat,and steal it gain any advantage they can.  

[dimreepr]

10 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

I think (my opinion) sex and the natural biological desire to pass our genetic information on is one of the primary driving factor in all societies. Having a good job and making good money is a means of securing a good mate. It is part of what motivate people to pursue careers, everyone cares about there place in society. It is rather unsophisticated really. Birds have colorful feathers, elaborate dances, nests, and etc to attract mates and Humans have nice cars, clothes, and etc to do the same. We are just animals after all.

2

money is a means of securing a good future take that away and we're back to who we feel a desire or liking for...

or the one with the biggest rock...

[Ten oz]

5 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

money is a means of securing a good future take that away and we're back to who we feel a desire or liking for...

The undesired and disliked won't take that laying down. 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Ten oz

[dimreepr]

39 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

The undesired and disliked won't take that laying down. 

 some might, with lube. 

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

People will still lie, cheat,and steal it gain any advantage they can.  

indeed, but the forecast may be less advantageous, without a means of securing a good, better, future.

Edited April 6, 2019 by dimreepr

[Yahya Al-Samawi]

2 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Money is simply a way humans organize efforts. I think at some point in the future humanity will need to move away from monetary systems. Money is just a structure and once machines can do everything a human can do that structure will obsolete. That said I assume money becoming obsolete is a ways off. 

I think (my opinion) sex and the natural biological desire to pass our genetic information on is one of the primary driving factor in all societies. Having a good job and making good money is a means of securing a good mate. It is part of what motivate people to pursue careers, everyone cares about there place in society. It is rather unsophisticated really. Birds have colorful feathers, elaborate dances, nests, and etc to attract mates and Humans have nice cars, clothes, and etc to do the same. We are just animals after all. 

In the absences of a monetary system where humans continuously compete for resources and jockey for position in society something else will just fill that void. Sadly I don't think it will be walking around, having fun, writing stories and books. We will still compete for sex. People will still lie, cheat,and steal it gain any advantage they can.  

You are wright, human instinct will force many to fight against AI because it deprive them their usual human life. But, many will find it nice to have AI doing all the hard and bad work for them.

[Prometheus]

Just saw this article, stating UK workers' productivity is stagnant, and wondered whether it might be a little insight into future employment (although the article does not mention automation, it just made me think of this thread): human workers still in employment but able to less and less productive as automations takes the slack. Might not be a bad model - people are still employed, can focus on tasks they perhaps enjoy, while AI is the workhorse. Not sure that would sit well with employers though - extra expense for little productivity.