WWII - an alternative scenarios

[Moreno]

I think no other war in history had so many potential alternative scenarios which could have easily change the course of entire history as WWII. It includes:

1) Why Japan chose to attack US in Dec. 1941 instead attacking USSR together with Germany and Italy in Jun. 1941? Wouldn't it have a much better chances of success? And what would happen if Japan would attack USSR instead of US?

2) Why Germany proclaimed war on US in Dec. 1941 right after US proclaimed war on Japan? If Japan failed Hitler and proclaimed neutrality in war in Europe, why Hitler decided to remember an ally obligations in Dec. 1941? Wouldn't it be much clever decision for Germany to abstain from war with US? Would US proclaim war on Germany and open second front in Europe in 1944 if Germany wouldn't do it first? Especially when Japanese attacked US without any preliminary agreement with Germany about that?

3) Could Hitler won campaign in the East if he would attack USSR in different time of a year? For example during the spring of 1941 and not in summer? Could he won if he would capture Moscow? 

4) If Hitler would succeed to occupy entire continental Europe, would US be able to win by use of nuclear weapon only? And if yes, how many nuclear bombs would be needed?

 

Edited March 2, 2019 by Moreno

[Sensei]

1 hour ago, Moreno said:

1) Why Japan chose to attack US in Dec. 1941 instead attacking USSR together with Germany and Italy in Jun. 1941? Wouldn't it have a much better chances of success? And what would happen if Japan would attack USSR instead of US? 

That's extraordinary well-thought. I have to remember it to implement it in the new version of the Universe..

 

....but from historical point-of-view, you actually don't understand WHY Japan attacked USA... actually nearly nobody in US understands it, why "US was attacked" (because you're learning crap on history lessons)... So I will tell you the truth.. (similar like (almost) nobody in US understands Lockerbie (caused by murdering of daughter of Gaddafi) etc. etc.)

It began in XIX century.. from 1st opium war... then 2nd opium war...

after 2nd, US (not exclusively) sent warships to Japan and ordered to open ports for free trade.. (no big deal for US at that time! From their perspective)

Japan was shocked how easily western countries destroyed "great armies of great China empire".. Just a couple ships versus hundred (legacy) Chinese ships..

...then opened ports... opened to western culture.. opened to western knowledge.. to learn it... learned the everything what western countries knew... but they did not forget humiliation made by Americans to Japanese people at that time..

 

...delayed revenge...

 

Nationalists worldwide are cultivating such hates against other nations in their hearts and minds, and spreading them to the new generations.. sometimes to nations..

 

Edited March 3, 2019 by Sensei

[arc]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Japanese_border_conflicts

"The Soviet–Japanese border conflicts (also known as the Soviet-Japanese Border War) was a series of battles and skirmishes between the forces of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the Empire of Japan, as well as their respective client states of Mongolia and Manchukuo. Lasting from 1932 to 1939, most of the conflicts were small border skirmishes until May 1939, with the notable exception of the Battle of Lake Khasan. The border conflicts were resolved in a series of engagements at Khalkin-Gol, where the Soviets and Mongolians inflicted a decisive defeat on the Japanese. This resulted in the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact."

The Japanese had by December 7, 1941 a vast empire to administer and defend against U.S. interests in the Pacific, such as the Philippines, and the British and French interests in various S.E. Asian and Western Pacific territories, and specifically, The Dutch East Indies; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_East_Indies_Campaign, in what was a direct tactical goal as Japan turned its attention from possible soviet mineral wealth to S.E. Asia. it was inevitable that they would confront or be confronted in those competing colonial interests.  A repeat of Khalkin-Gol  defeat could have resulted in a full advance of the Soviets into much of Japanese held territories. Much of Japan's expansion was in direct response to the U.S. oil embargo that was levied for invading Manchuria and China. They were after raw materials that were essential for industry and military expansion that were not available in Japan, oil, rubber, metals like iron, copper, chromium and a variety of other strategic chemical elements that such an endeavor required.  Invading Soviet territories would have unlikely provided such returns for their efforts considering they would be dealing with a industrialized opponent on their homeland through adverse winter theaters of operations. Something the Germans should have considered heavily BTW.  They knew they were to be spread thin by such a vast stake in S.E. Asian and island territories at that time of initiating Peal Harbor it would have only further strained their efforts. Seeing how it turned out, I would say had they done so it might have ended the Pacific theater long before the German surrender.

Edited March 3, 2019 by arc
Additional info

[Akmose]

1) Why Japan chose to attack US in Dec. 1941 instead attacking USSR together with Germany and Italy in Jun. 1941? Wouldn't it have a much better chances of success? And what would happen if Japan would attack USSR instead of US?

If my memory is correct the Japanese attacked the US before pearl harbor. We had supplied the Chinese with weapons and the flying tigers during their war with japan. This angered the Japanese. We sent two ships into China to remove our diplomats and their families. These ships had American flags painted on the roof. The Japanese where informed of their movement into China. The Japanese attacked the ships killing some of the people onboard. This lead to the US cutting Japan off from US controlled oil. At that point they only had two things they could do. Surrender to the US demands or war with us.

They where doing a lot of damage to the Chinese but it still was a lot to handle. A prolonged was on two fronts would have not been winnable. Its one thing to take territory from an enemy but then you have to hold it.

2) Why Germany proclaimed war on US in Dec. 1941 right after US proclaimed war on Japan? If Japan failed Hitler and proclaimed neutrality in war in Europe, why Hitler decided to remember an ally obligations in Dec. 1941? Wouldn't it be much clever decision for Germany to abstain from war with US? Would US proclaim war on Germany and open second front in Europe in 1944 if Germany wouldn't do it first? Especially when Japanese attacked US without any preliminary agreement with Germany about that?

I assume that Hitler declared war on the US for much of the same reasons. We where supplying weapons and personal to the english and Russia. As soon as war was declared the German uboats started attacking the US ships. He probably hoped to get the english to surrender before too long. As well as cutting off our supply shipments to Russia.

[Moreno]

16 hours ago, arc said:

 A repeat of Khalkin-Gol  defeat could have resulted in a full advance of the Soviets into much of Japanese held territories.

Unlikely. In 1941 Soviets were so busy with repelling Germans, they wouldn't be able to send any significant forces to protect their Far East. Even contra, in Dec. 1941 they withdrew a few Siberian divisions as their last hope and the last reserve to defend Moscow. If Japanese would unleash the same strength and fury against USSR as they did it against US, all Siberia and Russian far East would be theirs just in few months. They had strong Navy and even plenty of air carriers to attack Russian cities and towns on the Pacific. Fortunately they didn't do it, of course. But really strange why not.

Edited March 3, 2019 by Moreno

[arc]

2 hours ago, Moreno said:

Unlikely. In 1941 Soviets were so busy with repelling Germans, they wouldn't be able to send any significant forces to protect their Far East. Even contra, in Dec. 1941 they withdrew a few Siberian divisions as their last hope and the last reserve to defend Moscow. If Japanese would unleash the same strength and fury against USSR as they did it against US, all Siberia and Russian far East would be theirs just in few months. They had strong Navy and even plenty of air carriers to attack Russian cities and towns on the Pacific. Fortunately they didn't do it, of course. But really strange why not.

Unfortunately for your argument the Japanese didn't agree with your assessment;

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Japanese_Neutrality_Pact

"After the Fall of France and the subsequent expansion of the Axis Powers, the Soviet Union wished to mend its diplomatic relations in the Far East in order to safeguard its eastern border and concentrate on the European theatre of war. On the other hand, Japan, bogged down in a seemingly interminable war with China and with diplomatic relations with the United States rapidly deteriorating, sought an accommodation with the Soviet Union that would improve its international standing and secure the northern frontier of Manchukuo against possible Soviet invasion."

Additionally, the Japanese had no other agenda outside of displacing U.S. and European colonialism and the domination of Asia Pacific with their own. This is about accessing resources to feed a war machine with raw materials and fertile land to grow food to feed a growing Japanese population that will soon begin to occupy and administer these latest acquisitions to their empire.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_East_Indies_campaign

"The East Indies was one of Japan's primary targets if and when it went to war because the colony possessed abundant valuable resources, the most important of which were its rubber plantations and oil fields;^[12][13] the colony was the fourth-largest exporter of oil in the world, behind the U.S., Iran, and Romania"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_occupation_of_the_Dutch_East_Indies

"Following its military campaign in China, Japan turned its attention to Southeast Asia, advocating to other Asians a 'Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere', which they described as a type of trade zone under Japanese leadership. The Japanese had gradually spread their influence through Asia in the first half of the 20th century and during the 1920s and 1930s had established business links in the Indies. These ranged from small town barbers, photographic studios and salesmen, to large department stores and firms such as Suzuki and Mitsubishi becoming involved in the sugar trade."

Bombing and attacking Soviet cities on the Pacific would have had little no strategic value to the Japanese strategies outlined above. They were running on the edge of a sword, so to speak, and they knew it. Inciting the Soviets would have only decreased their chances of success. 

I wish you would make some citations supporting your argument.  

 

 

[Moreno]

On 3/3/2019 at 5:21 PM, arc said:

Bombing and attacking Soviet cities on the Pacific would have had little no strategic value to the Japanese strategies outlined above. They were running on the edge of a sword, so to speak, and they knew it. Inciting the Soviets would have only decreased their chances of success. 

I wish you would make some citations supporting your argument.  

 

 

I they would attack USSR together with Germans in 1941 they would finish it quite fast, probably.