Game Theory and Patriot Games

[Trurl]

Ok to show I don't just waste my time looking for patterns in factoring. I have also studied game theory. Not so much the rigorous math, but the protocols. With a little knowledge and possible outcomes you can make some good predictions.

I don't know if my reference will be lost on those who don't follow American football but here it is.

I predicted on January 10th 2019 that Antonio Brown would become a New England Patriot.

I have proof in the YouTube video link following. But my simple approach to game theory does not end there. Simply put the Patriots are ruining football. What if we the fans could devise a game plan that would defeat the Patriots. We could use game theory and math. It would be a great challenge.

youtu.be/SX1QAXp53f4

 

http://youtu.be/SX1QAXp53f4

Edited September 11, 2019 by Trurl
Link missing

[mathematic]

Get Brady to age faster.

[swansont]

!

Moderator Note

Is there any substance to discuss here?

 

[Trurl]

On 9/11/2019 at 8:06 PM, swansont said:

!

Moderator Note

Is there any substance to discuss here?

 

Yes the science of game theory. And how to design a football game scheme that will stop the Patriots offense.

 

About 15 years ago there was an online Star Wars game. The Imperial forces strength far outweighed the Rebels. One Rebel-based player planned an attack the devestated the Imperial forces. It ruined the game but it should what an underdog can do.

 

There is a branch of science called network science where the general public has access to the data. I'm saying if several thousand people were analyzing the game tape they would discover why the Pats always have better play calling.

 

I know they have won the Super Bowl 6 of 8 times, but they have done it with different teams, often not the more talented teams.

 

So I am asking is there a way to use science to insure the integrity of the game?

 

Something that can be measured by the fans? Probality is out.

 

I have read about people using computer football simulators. I don't know what they use. I have a $20 game I bought off Steam.

 

But I end with this, with drafts and salary caps how is it possible for one team to dominate the game 20 years?

[swansont]

12 hours ago, Trurl said:

Yes the science of game theory.

Then ask questions about game theory.

 

12 hours ago, Trurl said:

And how to design a football game scheme that will stop the Patriots offense.

That's really not what game theory does.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

"Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interaction in between rational decision-makers.[1] It has applications in all fields of social science, as well as in logic and computer science. Originally, it addressed zero-sum games, in which each participant's gains or losses are exactly balanced by those of the other participants. Today, game theory applies to a wide range of behavioral relations, and is now an umbrella term for the science of logical decision making in humans, animals, and computers."

IOW, it's not about strategy or tactics, per se. Football isn't a zero-sum game, and it can't really be boiled down to logical decision-making.

 

 

12 hours ago, Trurl said:

About 15 years ago there was an online Star Wars game. The Imperial forces strength far outweighed the Rebels. One Rebel-based player planned an attack the devestated the Imperial forces. It ruined the game but it should what an underdog can do.

That's also not game theory

 

 

[Sensei]

14 hours ago, Trurl said:

 

About 15 years ago there was an online Star Wars game. The Imperial forces strength far outweighed the Rebels. One Rebel-based player planned an attack the devestated the Imperial forces. It ruined the game but it should what an underdog can do.

 

There is a branch of science called network science where the general public has access to the data. I'm saying if several thousand people were analyzing the game tape they would discover why the Pats always have better play calling.

 

I know they have won the Super Bowl 6 of 8 times, but they have done it with different teams, often not the more talented teams.

 

So I am asking is there a way to use science to insure the integrity of the game?

 

Something that can be measured by the fans? Probality is out.

 

I have read about people using computer football simulators. I don't know what they use. I have a $20 game I bought off Steam.

Example:

How often team wins on homeland and how often team loses on homeland?

How often team wins on opponent stadium and how often team loses on opponent stadium?

These data can be easily extracted from tables and made statistics.

Do you know what these questions mean in the reality: team which is flying long route to opponent is more tired of route. Also there must be added timezone changes.

If coach of team is knowledgeable, or have proper advisors, could reduce team tiredness and decrease effects from timezone changes.

When team is arriving to important opponent city? A few hours prior match? Day prior match? Couple days prior match?

How much of time is spend in airplanes, and how much time is spend in buses? Team has private jet or is using public air traffic (which extends travel of the team, and make them more tired). Teams without private jets (due to costs) obviously will be more tired and less likely to win a game.

How coach is dealing with alcohol, cigarettes, narcotics, doping.. ? i.e. are there performed regular daily basis tests on the whole team? Selected players? or none?

(normal football players in my country were known for drinking a lot of alcohol, and spending night by night in casinos)

Edited September 14, 2019 by Sensei

[Trurl]

Thanks for the input, but I'm not far in left field here. But you are right I have to put it into something calculable.

 

How bout this. I just heard you have to put pressure on Brady (the Patriot's quarterback), but he releases the ball too fast. So the game theory "decision" is to determine when Brady is throwing fast and when he needs more time for his receivers to get down field.

The decision to make is stopping the small gains. The Steelers usually take away the deep allowing the short, but this doesn't work. The Pats march up the field with short passes.

But the only way to stop such an offense is to solve when the Pats are short or long plays.

My solution (recommendation (not mathematically proven)) is to make the receivers go deep. I say this because Brady is relying on his receivers to get open. The receiver goes short when the defender goes deep and will go deep if the defender tries to stop the short pass.

So rush Brady if receivers go deep and don't rush Brady when you give up the short. This strategy correlates with Brady decision and time to release, and how he is allowing his receivers to dictate the march down the field.

 

I know this sounds simplistic but I think we could test it scientifically. From my understanding game theory is simply decision making. I know not all football is logic, but the strategy is game theory even if it is too complex for math. But you guys insisted on a concrete example. Let me know if this is a more fundamental approach.

I chose this example for a clear choice of when to rush Brady. Obviously the offense has the advantage. A few recivers going different routes and going deep or should would complicate the math.

But I include this example if the Pats go undefeated this season this forum may be interested in how they are doing it once again.

[swansont]

5 hours ago, Trurl said:

Thanks for the input, but I'm not far in left field here. But you are right I have to put it into something calculable.

 

How bout this. I just heard you have to put pressure on Brady (the Patriot's quarterback), but he releases the ball too fast. So the game theory "decision" is to determine when Brady is throwing fast and when he needs more time for his receivers to get down field.

Still not game theory.

 

 

[Endy0816]

On 9/10/2019 at 10:08 PM, Trurl said:

Ok to show I don't just waste my time looking for patterns in factoring. I have also studied game theory. Not so much the rigorous math, but the protocols. With a little knowledge and possible outcomes you can make some good predictions.

I don't know if my reference will be lost on those who don't follow American football but here it is.

I predicted on January 10th 2019 that Antonio Brown would become a New England Patriot.

I have proof in the YouTube video link following. But my simple approach to game theory does not end there. Simply put the Patriots are ruining football. What if we the fans could devise a game plan that would defeat the Patriots. We could use game theory and math. It would be a great challenge.

As my girlfriend is a big Patriots fan, helping you would result in a negative payoff for myself.

Seriously now you're talking more about strategizing than Game Theory. Game theory is more along the lines of the Prisoner's Dilemma or outcomes of different simple evolutionary strategies.

 

[swansont]

A serious flaw here is that you are thinking that you can come up with a strategy that perhaps 50 other professional head coaches have not been able to devise, along with the reality that strategy (and its success) is impacted by talent.

The best strategy, it seems, is to make the Patriots play in Miami against a Dolphins team that isn't historically bad (i.e. not this year's incarnation) Brady was 7-10 in Miami going into yesterday's game 

 

[Trurl]

On 9/16/2019 at 8:20 AM, swansont said:

A serious flaw here is that you are thinking that you can come up with a strategy that perhaps 50 other professional head coaches have not been able to devise

Obviously Tomlin is a great coach and the other 48 are knowledgeable professionals. I'm not saying that I know the game more or could outcoach them. I'm saying apply science and math. There is something simple everyone is overlooking.

 

On 9/16/2019 at 6:30 AM, Endy0816 said:

Seriously now you're talking more about strategizing than Game Theory. Game theory is more along the lines of the Prisoner's Dilemma or outcomes of different simple evolutionary strategies.

 

Well Game Theory explained the Cold War and I saw an example where a goalie uses it to block left instead of right. But even though this is also strategy, Game Theory still applies. If Game Theory couldn't help make sense of complex decisions it wouldn't be useful.

 

I have many other ideas to measure but I do not have access to game footage. So if anyone has access to any such game footage

[swansont]

1 hour ago, Trurl said:

Obviously Tomlin is a great coach and the other 48 are knowledgeable professionals. I'm not saying that I know the game more or could outcoach them. I'm saying apply science and math. There is something simple everyone is overlooking.

That’s valid if you have eliminated the scenario where Belichick is a better coach than most, and the Patriots have amassed better talent than most other teams. (In part because they work well within the salary cap limitations)

[altaylar2000]

On 9/11/2019 at 5:08 AM, Trurl said:

Ok to show I don't just waste my time looking for patterns in factoring. I have also studied game theory. Not so much the rigorous math, but the protocols. With a little knowledge and possible outcomes you can make some good predictions.

I don't know if my reference will be lost on those who don't follow American football but here it is.

I predicted on January 10th 2019 that Antonio Brown would become a New England Patriot.

I have proof in the YouTube video link following. But my simple approach to game theory does not end there. Simply put the Patriots are ruining football. What if we the fans could devise a game plan that would defeat the Patriots. We could use game theory and math. It would be a great challenge.

 

Game theory does not take into account politics, so it is almost useless. For example, the forecast for the economy there is maximum dumping, but in reality there will be monopolization, collusion and government regulation

[Prof Reza Sanaye]

2 hours ago, altaylar2000 said:

Game theory does not take into account politics, so it is almost useless. For example, the forecast for the economy there is maximum dumping, but in reality there will be monopolization, collusion and government regulation

Game theory has proven to be of almost no value even  in incremental short-term prediction of things under the present pandemic circumstances. Even Vaccine Diplomacy among nations has all but very little proven to be solid evidence for developments in the pandemic symptoms internationally. Game theory's involvement with other traditional methodologies of forecasting has also not brought about much improvement. 

Quote : 

{{ Since the Covid-19 pandemic began, we’ve seen pervasive uncertainty manifest in a sudden and massive divergence in macroeconomic projections. For example, in early February, the spread among economic growth forecasts for Q2 in the U.S. was 3.5 percentage points according to FocusEconomics data. By April 29, the most optimistic forecast among the 28 institutions in our weekly coronavirus survey saw the U.S. economy contracting 8.2%. The most pessimistic projected a huge 65.0% contraction — a spread of 56.8 percentage points — with an average of -31.4%. While most institutions expected a rebound in Q3, some saw further declines. And in Q4, although all economists projected growth of some form, forecasts ranged from a minimum of +1.1% and a maximum of +70.0%. The spreads observed in recent weeks are by far the widest recorded since we started covering the U.S. a decade ago. }}  

Link for the Quote: 

https://hbr.org/2020/05/why-economic-forecasting-is-so-difficult-in-the-pandemic 

Shall we possibly resort to Chaosmotics ? Fractals ? Even more of non-linearity ? Else ?