UFO evidence and how it's handled.

[dimreepr]

15 hours ago, Moontanman said:

My idea is that aliens are already here, slow boats from one stars oort cloud to another in rotating habitats where they live in lieu of planets. They avoid gravity wells and take thousands of years to travel slowly from one chunk of icy debris to another. sometimes, if they have the need and the icy chunk is big enough, they build another colony and continue on. Stumbling upon a planetary system with aboriginal life probably triggers some of them to investigate like we do when we find a new island with primitive humans. 

Why hasn't SETI detected them?

However well designed, a stealth craft wouldn't be perfect; we aren't club wielding primatives, however well advanced they are, they would still have to comunicate.

Edited November 5, 2019 by dimreepr

[swansont]

21 hours ago, Moontanman said:

Not true, in fact with technology like ours we could travel to other stars, you need to stop watching star wars... 

Have you come up with better arguments? Because if memory serves your rationale was seriously lacking when this came up not long ago.

[studiot]

21 hours ago, koti said:

I thought this insight by Ray Kurzweil was interesting:
 

 

What part did you think was interesting ?

I found several points, some interesting eg the linear v accelerating development comment and the prevalence of technology arguments comment (though he actually does both as well)

I also found some comments just plain wrong. eg the claim that humans are the only species that can use opposable grasp and learn/ reason/plan ahead/construct mental maps of something.

15 hours ago, Moontanman said:

My idea is that aliens are already here, slow boats from one stars oort cloud to another in rotating habitats where they live in lieu of planets.

Why only a (hard) technology solution?

Why not a biological solution instead of green men, green plants?

Would such aliens have need of UFOs?

The longest living life on Earth lives in  western North America and can last thousands of years, perhaps sufficient for star system hopping travel.

[dimreepr]

27 minutes ago, studiot said:

The longest living life on Earth lives in  western North America and can last thousands of years, perhaps sufficient for star system hopping travel.

TBF there's no reason to suppose the same individuals that started the trek, would finnish it.

Whatever the context.

 

[Moontanman]

44 minutes ago, swansont said:

Have you come up with better arguments? Because if memory serves your rationale was seriously lacking when this came up not long ago.

Lets say we disagreed or talked past each other at the least... 

1 hour ago, dimreepr said:

Why hasn't SETI detected them?

However well designed, a stealth craft wouldn't be perfect; we aren't club wielding primatives, however well advanced they are, they would still have to comunicate.

Communicate in what way? with what? Masers or lasers would have to be pointed very close to right at us to be detected.. 

[dimreepr]

Just now, Moontanman said:

Lets say we disagreed or talked past each other at the least... 

That's the beauty of science, we all get to have an opinion.

3 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

Communicate in what way? with what? Masers or lasers would have to be pointed very close to right at us to be detected..

And if they're visiting us to investigate, they would be.

[swansont]

47 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

Lets say we disagreed or talked past each other at the least... 

Let's not. Let's say you hand-waved your explanation without much in the way of science or analysis (which is consistent with the topic under discussion: lots of hand-waving, and not much in the way of actual scientific analysis)

49 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

 Communicate in what way? with what? Masers or lasers would have to be pointed very close to right at us to be detected.. 

So they can travel in interstellar space without having developed "pointing" technology?

[Moontanman]

3 hours ago, swansont said:

Let's not. Let's say you hand-waved your explanation without much in the way of science or analysis (which is consistent with the topic under discussion: lots of hand-waving, and not much in the way of actual scientific analysis)

So they can travel in interstellar space without having developed "pointing" technology?

I've acquired new technology since our last encounter that makes assimilation more difficult...    

4 hours ago, swansont said:

Let's not. Let's say you hand-waved your explanation without much in the way of science or analysis (which is consistent with the topic under discussion: lots of hand-waving, and not much in the way of actual scientific analysis)

So they can travel in interstellar space without having developed "pointing" technology?

Seriously a huge part of my argument comes from this Video or series of videos. If anyone want to watch them before any discussion of colonizing Oort clouds.

 

[swansont]

38 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

I've acquired new technology since our last encounter that makes assimilation more difficult...    

Seriously a huge part of my argument comes from this Video or series of videos. If anyone want to watch them before any discussion of colonizing Oort clouds.

This video, with the following description (emphasis added):

"Far beyond even Pluto and the Kuiper Belt is a vast and mostly empty region of space that we theorize may contain trillions of comets and other icy bodies."

[Moontanman]

21 minutes ago, swansont said:

This video, with the following description (emphasis added):

"Far beyond even Pluto and the Kuiper Belt is a vast and mostly empty region of space that we theorize may contain trillions of comets and other icy bodies."

The theroize was in how is was shaped not if it existed...  02:50 to 04:10

Edited November 5, 2019 by Moontanman

[swansont]

5 hours ago, Moontanman said:

The theroize was in how is was shaped not if it existed...  02:50 to 04:10

Not my point. 

“...that we theorize may contain trillions of comets and other icy bodies."

We don’t know what’s there. It’s conjecture.

 

[MigL]

Those lights and radar returns are 'angels' and they are performing 'miracles' in the sky.
Surely we should have an investigation of these Religious phenomena.

Seriously Moon, when it comes to UFO and aliens, your mantra seems to be
'Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence.'
Why do you not apply that criterion to Dieties/Creators ?

Why do you need the concept of 'aliens' so explain some unexplained events, but you are perfectly rational in the case of religion, and don't need the concept of 'God' to explain other unexplainable events ?
Not trying to ridicule you or anything of the sort, but would like an explanation for the line of thinking in one case as opposed to the other.

[Moontanman]

8 hours ago, MigL said:

Those lights and radar returns are 'angels' and they are performing 'miracles' in the sky.
Surely we should have an investigation of these Religious phenomena.

Seriously Moon, when it comes to UFO and aliens, your mantra seems to be
'Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence.'
Why do you not apply that criterion to Dieties/Creators ?

Why do you need the concept of 'aliens' so explain some unexplained events, but you are perfectly rational in the case of religion, and don't need the concept of 'God' to explain other unexplainable events ?
Not trying to ridicule you or anything of the sort, but would like an explanation for the line of thinking in one case as opposed to the other.

Just as soon the people in charge stop hand waving away evidence that would convince them of almost anything else. I don't know that any UFOs are aliens, I do know that ball lightings is assumed to be a thing and was for centuries (due to eyewitnesses only) yet until quite recently not even photos existed. And of course everyone knew rocks could not fall from the sky... There are, UAP''s lets call them, that simply defy rational explanation and only hand waving away at least some of the available data allows the status quo to continue. 

[Roamer]

@koti nice vid, but he's missing something;

the reason to think alien civilizations exist somewhere is that the universe is so vast(you throw the dice often enough, you're bound to get a six eventually); if any alien civ is a million year ahead of us, but they 're more then a million lightyears away from us, we couldn't ve detected them yet.

[dimreepr]

5 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

Just as soon the people in charge stop hand waving away evidence that would convince them of almost anything else. I don't know that any UFOs are aliens, I do know that ball lightings is assumed to be a thing and was for centuries (due to eyewitnesses only) yet until quite recently not even photos existed. And of course everyone knew rocks could not fall from the sky... There are, UAP''s lets call them, that simply defy rational explanation and only hand waving away at least some of the available data allows the status quo to continue. 

There's just no reason to assume there is no rational explanation, even if we don't happen to have one ATM.

1 minute ago, Roamer said:

@koti nice vid, but he's missing something;

He's just assuming rather a lot.

[Moontanman]

16 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

There's just no reason to assume there is no rational explanation, even if we don't happen to have one ATM.

No one is asking anyone to assume there is no rational explanation... Just stop shoehorning in stuff that doesn't fit, be brave enough to simply say "I don't know"  a reasonable skeptical 12 year old could pick apart the 1952 Washington, DC sightings so called explanation. The desire to appear to know what was going on was so strong they went out on a limb and sawed down the tree!   

16 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

He's just assuming rather a lot.

I was say extrapolating...  

16 minutes ago, Roamer said:

@koti nice vid, but he's missing something;

the reason to think alien civilizations exist somewhere is that the universe is so vast(you throw the dice often enough, you're bound to get a six eventually); if any alien civ is a million year ahead of us, but they 're more then a million lightyears away from us, we couldn't ve detected them yet.

To be fair this video was about us in the not too horribly distant future... 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Moontanman

[dimreepr]

2 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

No one is asking anyone to assume there is no rational... Just stop shoehorning in stuff that doesn't fit, be brave enough to simply say "I don't know"  

But there are things we do know, for instance we (that is you and I) know it's not god or santa.

[Moontanman]

9 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

But there are things we do know, for instance we (that is you and I) know it's not god or santa.

In the 1952 Washington sighting radar inversions don't cut it either... In fact it's just more insults from arch debunker Philip Klass who would deny aliens while they were giving him an anal probe...

There was a lot of confusion going on during those two weekends but radar inversions to not even come close to explaining all or even most of them... It could have just been a perfect storm of natural phenomena but insulting the people who worked the radar and ignoring civilians on the ground with no knowledge of what was going on or interactions with aircraft was just dishonest... 

 

On 11/5/2019 at 7:18 AM, dimreepr said:

Why hasn't SETI detected them?

However well designed, a stealth craft wouldn't be perfect; we aren't club wielding primatives, however well advanced they are, they would still have to comunicate.

To answer that i would have to know why you think SETI should have detected them... 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Moontanman

[dimreepr]

4 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

In the 1952 Washington sighting radar inversions don't cut it either... In fact it's just more insults from arch debunker Philip Klass who would deny aliens while they were giving him an anal probe...

There was a lot of confusion going on during those two weekends but radar inversions to not even come close to explaining all or even most of them... It could have just been a perfect storm of natural phenomena but insulting the people who worked the radar and ignoring civilians on the ground with no knowledge of what was going on or interactions with aircraft was just dishonest... 

A lot depends on perspective, are you sure you want to jump down that rabbit hole?

[Moontanman]

1 minute ago, dimreepr said:

A lot depends on perspective, are you sure you want to jump down that rabbit hole?

I'm always ready to jump down that particular rabbit hole. 

 

[dimreepr]

2 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

I'm always ready to jump down that particular rabbit hole. 

Well then, perhaps we should first revisit a few of our exchanges on the religion sub-forum. 

[Moontanman]

4 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

Well then, perhaps we should first revisit a few of our exchanges on the religion sub-forum. 

Just explain how multiple unrelated eyewitnesses saw glowing balls of light, said light lights interacted with aircraft, multiple independent radars, Military people on the ground seeing glowing balls, said glowing balls were seen over the white house and the best the air force could do was say weather inversions and dumb radar operators caused it? 

And Philip Klass said "dumb radar operators" no one who involved in the explanation initially was a scientist or even an expert in the systems being discussed, radar or weather. Now it probably wasn't alien space drones trying to piss off the POTUS but the "Dumb Radar Operator" quip by Dr Klass should have caused him to lose his academic standing at least as a UFO investigator...    

Edited November 6, 2019 by Moontanman

[dimreepr]

2 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

Just explain how multiple unrelated eyewitnesses saw glowing balls of light, said light lights interacted with aircraft, multiple independent radars, Military people on the ground seeing glowing balls, said glowing balls were seen over the white house and the best the air force could do was say weather inversions and dumb radar operators caused it? 

History is not a scientific subject for good reason, even a few minutes can skew the evidence.

[swansont]

54 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

Just as soon the people in charge stop hand waving away evidence that would convince them of almost anything else. I don't know that any UFOs are aliens, I do know that ball lightings is assumed to be a thing and was for centuries (due to eyewitnesses only) yet until quite recently not even photos existed.

And recreated in a lab setting.

https://www.livescience.com/7035-mysterious-ball-lightning-created-lab.html

But I don't see how ball lightning is an example of "hand waving away evidence". It seems to me that it's the opposite of that. A phenomenon was observed, but solid confirmation of it was lacking. What evidence was hand-waved away?

 

54 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

And of course everyone knew rocks could not fall from the sky...

This is called "conventional wisdom" and has been a bane of science for a long time.

 

54 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

There are, UAP''s lets call them, that simply defy rational explanation and only hand waving away at least some of the available data allows the status quo to continue. 

 

What conclusive evidence is there that UFOs are aliens? Conclusive meaning you can positively eliminate all other (scientifically reasonable) explanations?

Couple with that, what plausibility argument exists that is not based on conjecture and wishful thinking that a piloted or autonomous craft could get here from interstellar distances?

Why, with the explosion of the number of people carrying a camera with them at all time, haven't we seen better pictures? (and is there data showing the number of observations has scaled with the number of potential picture-takers?)

On 11/5/2019 at 7:18 AM, dimreepr said:

Why hasn't SETI detected them?

However well designed, a stealth craft wouldn't be perfect; we aren't club wielding primatives, however well advanced they are, they would still have to comunicate.

This brings to mind the question of why, as our detection methods get better, do we not find "aliens" more easily? The aliens are far from home, and it seem unlikely that they are doing R&D and deploying new technology "in the field" and there would not be time for new craft to get here with more advanced technology. They are presumably stuck with whatever they had when they left home.

 

[Moontanman]

4 hours ago, swansont said:

And recreated in a lab setting.

https://www.livescience.com/7035-mysterious-ball-lightning-created-lab.html

Not until quite recently but well before then assumed to exist. 

 

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But I don't see how ball lightning is an example of "hand waving away evidence". It seems to me that it's the opposite of that. A phenomenon was observed, but solid confirmation of it was lacking. What evidence was hand-waved away?

You really don't see what you just did? Ball lighting had no evidence other than things people claimed to have seen yet was assumed to be a real phenomena. UFOs are attributed to dumb radar operators even when that, if it were true, doesn't even come close to explaining what occurred. The desperation to explain no mater what destroys any possible objectivity... 

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This is called "conventional wisdom" and has been a bane of science for a long time.

And evidently still is... 

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What conclusive evidence is there that UFOs are aliens? Conclusive meaning you can positively eliminate all other (scientifically reasonable) explanations?

I'm not asking for conclusions, I'm asking for data to taken at face value rather than twisted to support some predetermined conclusion... 

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Couple with that, what plausibility argument exists that is not based on conjecture and wishful thinking that a piloted or autonomous craft could get here from interstellar distances?

This simply the same as saying that someone on a log raft couldn't get to North America from Europe therefore no one ever well. The Vikings did it in not much better though a series of smaller steps. 

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Why, with the explosion of the number of people carrying a camera with them at all time, haven't we seen better pictures? (and is there data showing the number of observations has scaled with the number of potential picture-takers?)

Pictures are either too good to be true or not good enough to matter, not enough of them or far too many all of those have been used to debunk UFOs

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This brings to mind the question of why, as our detection methods get better, do we not find "aliens" more easily? The aliens are far from home, and it seem unlikely that they are doing R&D and deploying new technology "in the field" and there would not be time for new craft to get here with more advanced technology. They are presumably stuck with whatever they had when they left home.

 

You are assuming, one all sighting have equal merit, two aliens must travel from their home planet to us in one go, three as we get more advanced we become more dangerous and better tech is used to observe, play, mess up or whatever it is that aliens do. Four, you are assuming they are aliens. 

There is a cavern someplace in the London Metro system, long abandoned, people who go there are sure they have contacted the supernatural, ghosts, demons ect. It was once and still maybe a popular tourist spot, a few researchers took it seriously and over a period of time were able to determine the acoustics of the cavern was the culprit. 

At least some legitimate researchers attribute some UFOs to earthquake lights and electromagnetic effects on the human brain when underground crystal deposits are stressed by tectonic movement. No smoking gun really but possible steps in the right direction that writing them off as dumb radar operators will not...  

Edited November 6, 2019 by Moontanman