Corona virus general questions mega thread

[FishandChips]

I remember reading an article how nearly 600 people a year die of the common flu in the UK. Now imagine every country in europe you are going to have a large number of people. Who unfortunately will suffer from the flu virus.

My question is has the media made us overeact to the corona virus ?. I am sure if the media had focused on the flu virus and its casualities there would be equally wide spread panic.

 

[John Cuthber]

The mortality rate for flu is about 0.1%.

The mortality rate for 19 NCov is about 2%

It's about 20 times more likely to kill you.

 

In the UK about 600 people a year die from flu- in spite of the fact that many people are vaccinated and that we have antivirals that help treat it.

So, it's not unreasonable to imagine that, if there's a serious outbreak in the UK, it's more likely that you will catch it and, if you catch it, it's more likely to kill you.

That's grounds for making a bit of fuss.

 

[Strange]

There is also the fact that when a new virus is encountered, the dangers are unknown so it makes sense to try and contain it as quickly as possible.

[Externet]

The corona virus spreading;  there is no recommendation to prepare the body for a better chance to fight the illness.  In lack of a vaccine, what medicines taken now have any chance of preventing/diminishing the roulette of contracting/getting infected from someone we come across ?

The U.S. citizens overseas, with positive symptoms being transported risking spread of the illness, is that the right thing to do, to bring the infected to US soil for an unclear/unproven  treatment ?

[iNow]

2 minutes ago, Externet said:

what medicines taken now have any chance of preventing/diminishing the roulette of contracting/getting infected from someone we come across ?

Stay away from others 

[Prometheus]

The principles of good hygiene are well known: hand washing, particularly around food prep of touching your eyes, sneezing and coughing into tissues and disposing them properly, keeping clean surfaces. be careful when sharing drinks etc.

The principles of a healthy immune system are also well known: diet, exercise, avoid excesses.

What's the need for medicine? If you are immuno-compromised there are a number of options, but you're better off discussing those with a physician.

[Sensei]

25 minutes ago, Externet said:

The U.S. citizens overseas, with positive symptoms being transported risking spread of the illness, is that the right thing to do, to bring the infected to US soil for an unclear/unproven  treatment ?

If you are referring to Diamond Princess pasangers only negatively tested will fly to US and they will have yet another 14 days quarantine..

The major risk are not the one with symptoms, but the one missing visible and detectable symptoms..

Edited February 16, 2020 by Sensei

[Externet]

The original ancient quarantine was quaranta (40) days, not 14.  No one knows the exact proven figures for the incubation of the new illnesses.  Left to guess if it will work ?

The ones you say are the major risk are the ones without detectable symptoms = the ones incubating for unknown lapses = Trojan horses = the ones being brought to the country ?

[iNow]

I’m more worried about the hysteria than the actual virus at this point 

[Externet]

More worrying is hysteria + virus + wait until this point is in the past.

[CharonY]

While I do not like to use of one disease to make another seem more harmless (it ain't a zero sum game). You should know that there are plenty of serious diseases endemic to the US. Seasonal flu is a big killer every year despite vaccinations and just because it is new it does not mean that existing measures are failing nor that there is a significant increase in overall risk. 

If you really want to be afraid, think about AB resistant bacteria.

[dimreepr]

7 hours ago, CharonY said:

If you really want to be afraid, think about AB resistant bacteria.

Indeed, or climate change... Or we could always relax and worry about what's for dinner... 🙄

It's being scared of the future that gets us up this 'shit creek' in the first place.

Edited February 18, 2020 by dimreepr

[PhilGeis]

Agree - draconian projections (from AB resistance to climate change) that folks don't eventually observe in their daily lives drives to skepticism.  I'm with dimreepr - what's for dinner?

[Sensei]

On 2/16/2020 at 4:52 PM, iNow said:

I’m more worried about the hysteria than the actual virus at this point 

Ridiculous comment.. At which point would you become smarter?

Update from Diamond Princess: over 620 infected (from 3700).  Two weeks ago (5 February) there was just.. 1.. the next day 10. the next day 20. the next day 61.. These numbers grow now over 50 per day.

Nearly 400 Americans from the ship were taken to US awaiting yet another two weeks quarantine in America.

So far two people from the ship died.

 

Edited February 20, 2020 by Sensei

[dimreepr]

13 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Ridiculous comment.. At which point would you become smarter?

Ridiculous comment, indeed.

[iNow]

17 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Ridiculous comment.. At which point would you become smarter?

Lol. Well, thanks for your reasoned and diplomatic response to my post. Perhaps you could tell us all how you really feel next time? 

Let's look at your numbers. 620 people infected on the ship, most quarantined, 2 died. Now, I'm very sorry for those families and would hate for the same to happen to me, but that's a death rate of only 0.3% (zero point 3 percent). Across the entire planet, something like 2100-2200 people are dead from coronavirus. 

Meanwhile, according to the CDC this years common flu virus has been remarkably mild yet 14,000 people have already died from it... just in the US alone. Also, 10 million people die from air pollution every year. 1.25 million from car crashes...

So, yeah. I'm sympathetic to those people who died from this thing and the families they left behind, but perspective matters. It's important to watch how this thing evolves and progresses, but IMO the hysteria doesn't match the risk.

Perhaps if I personally lived in a densely populated area or was regularly visiting China I'd present a different opinion, but I don't. One person across my entire state has been infected and they were okay after quarantine, so my stance is hardly "ridiculous," but you suggesting I'm somehow ignorant or dumb very much is.

Edited February 20, 2020 by iNow

[Sensei]

There are almost entire families dead in China with death rate at 80%-90% (20% remaining just because one family member is studying on the West).. If annual flu attacks, it does not kill entire family in two weeks. So stop bullshitting about comparison to annual flu. As it makes you less and less credible..

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Let's look at your numbers. 620 people infected on the ship, most quarantined,

Apparently you don't understand these numbers.. They were quarantined but still get infected and infecting others. Japan medics as soon as detected infected person were/are getting person outside of the ship to hospital. Still new 50 people were/are diagnosed per day..

In China there is so many infected, that hospitals are overcrowded and unable to handle so many people. If infected person is not immediately separated and hospitalized, he or she is dead. Ill person cannot walk, talk, work, go to shop for food. Have you seen videos with people losing consciousness on the street and failing and lying down on the ground? Lonely living person might die not because illness wins but because nobody could care him or her during illness and dies due to exhaustion. It is just a matter of escalation. Wuhan hospitals are full of people lying down everywhere on floors and crematoriums are unable to handle the all dead cases..

Japanese could handle it just because they at the moment have enough medics and staff to take care of ill people. Did you have math in primary school? What will happen if number of ill people will exceed medical staff human possibilities to help others? Wuhan medical staff is exhausted already. Dead rate will "fly through the roof" (your 0.3% is just temporary, and just because there is still enough medical staff).

I am totally astonished by your incompetence...

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Lol

Apparently it is very funny subject to laugh on loud on scientific forum...

Edited February 20, 2020 by Sensei

[iNow]

Okay. You're clearly very emotional about this topic. That sort of adds weight to my suggestion that the hysteria is an issue with this one.

Thanks for the exchange. As I already said more than once, my heart aches for those affected. That doesn't mean it's an issue worthy of the anxiety we're seeing. 

This is my opinion. Feel free to disagree and hold a different opinion, preferably without making it unnecessarily personal or attacking me personally.

2 hours ago, Sensei said:

Ridiculous comment.. At which point would you become smarter?

 

47 minutes ago, Sensei said:

stop bullshitting about comparison to annual flu. As it makes you less and less credible

 

47 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Did you have math in primary school?

 

48 minutes ago, Sensei said:

I am totally astonished by your incompetence...

Not helpful, mate. Again, seems a bit... hysterical.

[zapatos]

2 hours ago, Sensei said:

 

Update from Diamond Princess: over 620 infected (from 3700).  Two weeks ago (5 February) there was just.. 1.. the next day 10. the next day 20. the next day 61.. These numbers grow now over 50 per day.

Nearly 400 Americans from the ship were taken to US awaiting yet another two weeks quarantine in America.

You mean you keep thousands of people in close quarters and a virus spreads? Shocking!

[Sensei]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

This is my opinion. Feel free to disagree and hold a different opinion, preferably without making it unnecessarily personal or attacking me personally.

I was not attacking you personally but your attitude, to so serious subject as this one, which was (and still is) clearly disrespectful.. The same attitude had Wuhan and Hubei authorities just six weeks ago..

Edited February 20, 2020 by Sensei

[iNow]

To be clear, are you implicitly confirming my suggestion that the hysteria on this topic is too high, or are you trying to rebut it? It sure feels like the former.

[zapatos]

3 minutes ago, Sensei said:

I was not attacking you personally but your attitude, to so serious subject as this one, which was (and still is) clearly disrespectful.. The same attitude had Wuhan and Hubei authorities just six weeks ago..

Externet lives in the US. For him to be so worried about his well being indeed likely causes more risk for him than the actual virus does.

[Sensei]

8 minutes ago, iNow said:

That doesn't mean it's an issue worthy of the anxiety we're seeing. 

Even stock markets enterprise financial investors disagree with you.. China gov pumped 174 bln of USD, disallowed short-sale , disallowed selling stocks by large shareholder for six months..

..they are BS world about quantity of infected and dead people..

..not including cremated not hospitalised people in statistics..

 

[iNow]

That’s because businesses are stopping shipping and air travel is locked down, not bc people are dying in huge numbers. 

Apple has already shared earnings will be down and they’re a bell weather. 

It’s an issue we need to address. It requires focus. I feel compassion for those affected. 

As of today, I’m still more worried about the hysteria, especially here in the US. YMMV

[CharonY]

23 minutes ago, iNow said:

As of today, I’m still more worried about the hysteria, especially here in the US. YMMV

I agree with you here. While I maintain that it is a serious disease and needs monitoring (such as other contagious diseases). However, the assumptions that some folks make are in itself harmful. There are reports of people avoiding or even acting out against Chinese looking folks because for fear of getting infected. Meanwhile, as you noted, it is far more likely to get seasonal flu from your fellow citizen (regardless how they look like). 

Quote

There are almost entire families dead in China with death rate at 80%-90% (20% remaining just because one family member is studying on the West)

To me that looks like one of those exaggerated reports. Based on latest available data the fatality rate of folks below 50 is <0.4%. It is rather deadly for folks above 80 years old (~15%). While it is not impossible that a family has been wiped out but unless the families mostly consist of old folks, it is highly unlikely to have happened on a larger scale. And of course the consistent assumption that somehow there are far more deaths than reported based on the fact that the Chinese government might fudge numbers. Yet looking at closely monitored cases outside Chine, we still see no evidence of a higher death rate. The cruise ship alone is a test case where one can observe the rumored deadliness of the disease, with no way to fudge numbers. While tragic, the two persons who died on the ship were over 80 and the overall age is like skewed upward. I sincerely doubt that you will see those numbers go beyond the projections based on current numbers.

Sure, accurate numbers will only be obtained once it is over, but assuming that things are far worse based on rumors is in fact harmful, especially if it gets to the point where folks actually act on it rather than on available data.