Corona virus general questions mega thread

[iNow]

45 minutes ago, CharonY said:

There are reports of people avoiding or even acting out against Chinese looking folks because for fear of getting infected.

Also, because they're xenophobic thugs, but I live in Trump's america so may have a cynical view right now of where our culture stands.

[Sensei]

48 minutes ago, CharonY said:

To me that looks like one of those exaggerated reports.

I am astonished and disappointed by you too.. so even you are not bothering with reading news from Wuhan, Hubei, China and world.. You even did not know what family I was talking about during reading my post! Unbelievable! (but you would probably know what rubbish D.T. wrote the last time on Twitter, right? Everybody lost mind on this world completely. Priorities completely up-side-down)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/coronavirus-kills-chinese-film-director-family-wuhan-covid-19

In this case fatality rate is not absolute function. Where you get y=f(x), with x depending on age, but it depends on availability of medical staff which will take care of person during illness.. Too many people will be infected = entire medical staff is a way too busy and tired of work to handle any more infected so infected patients are left alone and simply die.. Age of patient is meaningless if there is nobody to take care during illness.. 

Availability of medical staff depends on quantity of infected people. During annual flu only absolutely seriously ill are taken to hospitals. During this epidemic the all infected are taken to hospitals (which limits their availability to other patients).

Edited February 20, 2020 by Sensei

[hypervalent_iodine]

!

Moderator Note

Sensei, I’m sure you can make your points without also using insults.

 

[CharonY]

8 hours ago, Sensei said:

You even did not know what family I was talking about

You said:

Quote

 There are almost entire families dead in China with death rate at 80%-90% (20% remaining just because one family member is studying on the West).

Which heavily implies that it is a common occurrence to have families wiped out and that in at least one case someone only escaped death because they were abroad. Yet you provide one example in which all the folks (perhaps except wife, not sure) were above fifty. It is silly to extrapolate from this one case, while WHO and involved researchers provide different numbers.

Quote

but it depends on availability of medical staff which will take care of person during illness.

Of course that is true. And of course the death rate especially in Hubei are likely to be higher than elsewhere since the medical situation is worse. But how does it lend credibility to your claim that the disease is far more lethal than reported? If anything the rate will be higher specifically for Wuhan and Hubei than elsewhere due to the critical situation which are also exacerbated by the quarantine. There was at least one report that a disabled person died due to lack of care. So you are conflating the severity of the disease with what you believe the infrastructure issues are. Whether it will ultimately break (further) or hold (to some degree) remains to be seen,  but so far you have not provided any data one way or another as far as I can see.

So far in Hubei 62031 cases were reported in total. Of these 2029  have died and 10521 have been reported as cured. These are among the highest mortality rates (with decent N) reported, no doubt confounded by the bad situation there. AFAIK that are the numbers that are available. What data sources do you have that apparently are in direct contradiction to claims made by health professionals? 

Other numbers are available and have been reported in various threads here, but I would like to highlight again that currently we have ~56 ongoing cases worldwide (most being in Wuhan) compared to ~19k cases with outcomes. Of the latter 16.9k  were recoveries and 2.1k were deaths. So there is still a while until actual mortality and other information can be calculated accurately. While the numbers especially in Hubei could become worse , it should be noted that from all collected data about 79% only have mild conditions, who therefore should be fairly unaffected from overcrowded hospitals, unless they get sick otherwise, of course. Is it ideal or even good? Certainly not. Just to re-iterate, it is a serious disease, especially for the elderly.  It created a lot of local strain (exacerbated by the unprecedented quarantine enacted) and folks suffer, we should not forget that. But that is different from running wild with speculations of what could be. Right now those at the sidelines can only wait for the actual development. The internet has been running hot with misinformation which at best is annoying for the professionals and worst can seriously put people at risk. This is especially true if that panic does not lend to any beneficial actions. Remember the knee-jerk reaction from an US lawmaker who suggested euthanasia of folks coming into contact with Ebola?

[PhilGeis]

Please calm down Sensei.   One can be aware of the statistics without being anxious and being aware serves no purpose.  What are you doing about it other than worrying?

[dimreepr]

17 hours ago, Sensei said:

Availability of medical staff depends on quantity of infected people. During annual flu only absolutely seriously ill are taken to hospitals. During this epidemic the all infected are taken to hospitals (which limits their availability to other patients).

The best way to deal with a new virus is to stop it at source, so the action of the authorities will automatically be disproportionate to the actual risk. That leads (in this case) to hysteria, mostly because it's dominated the news even though, in terms of population, it's only affected a handful of people; the worst thing we can do is (be hysterical) add to the hysteria, because that creates fear and fear is the mind killer. 

So if you want to help those poor people who are directly affected by this, take a step back, don't be afraid, and use the intelligence we all know you have.

 

Edited February 21, 2020 by dimreepr

[Sensei]

Just to keep up-to-date the one who are not bothering with reading coronavirus news every day and calling it hysteria. From the all 328/329 US citizens evacuated from Japan and taken yet another time to quarantine in the military base in Texas, three positively diagnosed.. so far.. 14 were diagnosed in Japan after disembarking from the ship during travel to the airport.

 

Raport from Diamond Princess. Compilation of US passengers relations. Which is completely devastating to Japan authorities and medical staff..

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/world/asia/coronavirus-japan-cruise-ship.html

I am afraid that number of infected people in Japan will "fly through the roof" very soon...

Edited February 22, 2020 by Sensei

[iNow]

Sensei - You’re generally quite calm and logical in threads, yet here you’re coming across as a bit panicked and emotional. You’re also lashing out at folks like me who push back even slightly on the scale, scope, and risk being suggested around this health problem. 

If hysteria is the wrong word to describe otherwise bright and very rational people like you doing this, then what’s the right word?

Edited February 23, 2020 by iNow

[StringJunky]

9 hours ago, iNow said:

Sensei - You’re generally quite calm and logical in threads, yet here you’re coming across as a bit panicked and emotional. You’re also lashing out at folks like me who push back even slightly on the scale, scope, and risk being suggested around this health problem. 

If hysteria is the wrong word to describe otherwise bright and very rational people like you doing this, then what’s the right word?

We all live in different countries, with varied degrees of truth disseminated in each. Some people in more oppressive regimes don't have the luxury of unfettered access to unbiased news sources and may also be exposed to state-sponsored propaganda campaigns. One can only know what one can see.

Edited February 23, 2020 by StringJunky

[iNow]

2 hours ago, StringJunky said:

One can only know what one can see.

Indeed, and quite fair.

Our OP, however, is in the US and is what promoted my introduction of the word hysteria. While the US is way down at 45th on the global press freedom index (and Japan closer to 65th), most here can still access sources of mostly objective numbers and examine the overall risk with reason and perspective. 

Maybe that’s the better word... many of the posts and comments I keep seeing on this issue seem to lack appropriate perspective. 

Of course, even the concept of appropriate itself is subjective, so alas... around in circles we continue to go.

[StringJunky]

10 minutes ago, iNow said:

Indeed, and quite fair.

Our OP, however, is in the US and is what promoted my introduction of the word hysteria. While the US is way down at 45th on the global press freedom index (and Japan closer to 65th), most here can still access sources of mostly objective numbers and examine the overall risk with reason and perspective. 

Maybe that’s the better word... many of the posts and comments I keep seeing on this issue seem to lack appropriate perspective. 

Of course, even the concept of appropriate itself is subjective, so alas... around in circles we continue to go.

I don't think Sensei is and | was responding to your interpretation of his post. I was speculating as to why he might have the approach on this subject that he has, given that he's normally a measured poster.

Edited February 23, 2020 by StringJunky

[dimreepr]

3 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

I don't think Sensei is and | was responding to your interpretation of his post. I was speculating as to why he might have the approach on this subject that he has, given that he's normally a measured poster.

Sensei is undoubtably educated and intelligent and normally a measured poster, so the word hysteria seems valid, or maybe panic.

[CharonY]

Just to present a broader perspective; the comparison between coronavirus and influenza has been made earlier to contextualize the seriousness of the diseases. And I think it is somewhat apt. However, not because influenza is harmless, but rather because it is a serious disease that has a significant health burden even in highly industrialized nations. In the USA, for example, influenza results between 9-45 million symptomatic illnesses and between 12,000 to 60,000 deaths. And this is with the availability of vaccines. I.e. without vaccines spread and health impact are undoubtedly far worse. 

At the same time the new coronavirus is more lethal, more contagious (again, no vaccines or immunities), so how does the comparison make sense? First, it is to highlight that we have a deadly re-occurring disease and while tragic, we kind of cope, even if it is just by getting used to it. Second, it is about the spread. Despite the fact that each coronavirus case infects more folks than each influenza case, there are still much fewer overall infections so far. While the disease is far from being contained, we are still orders of magnitude away from the spread of seasonal influenza. One can think about it in terms of quantity vs quality in a way. That all being said, there are indications that we may look at an pandemic. That might sound scarier than it is, but there is a serious risk especially for countries with less developed health care systems. It is right for health care specialists to worry- there are quite a few unknowns and the more it spreads the harder it will be to contain. But on the other end regular folks should just protect themselves as for a regular (somewhat deadlier) flu and keep away from the elderly if one has any kind of respiratory syndromes (which should be normal behaviour, anyway).

[Huckleberry of Yore]

I made several trips to Beijing in 2004 and recall the SARS concern seemed less than Corona, maybe due to the lack of internet.  The hotel had CNN but that was a few minutes each day.  I hope the onset of spring will put an end to this threat.  Kio tsukete Sensei-sama.

I took this photo in the hotel elevator.  Don't know if they actually did though.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Huckleberry of Yore

[PhilGeis]

I recall temperature screening upon entry at airports started with SARS and is still in place in  China and some SE Asia countries.   Short of Cobalt 60 insertion for gamma irradiation, the elevator is not going to be "sterilized" hourly or at all.

 

[Phi for All]

10 hours ago, Huckleberry of Yore said:

I took this photo in the hotel elevator.  Don't know if they actually did though.

Interesting choice of words, and most likely exaggerated. Even if you could sterilize the whole elevator every hour, it's non-sterile the moment someone enters.

If anything, I'll bet they sprayed some Lysol into the cab. I wonder if they chose not to write "disinfected" because it implies the elevator used to be "infected"?

[zapatos]

2 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

Interesting choice of words, and most likely exaggerated. Even if you could sterilize the whole elevator every hour, it's non-sterile the moment someone enters.

If anything, I'll bet they sprayed some Lysol into the cab. I wonder if they chose not to write "disinfected" because it implies the elevator used to be "infected"?

Might just be a translation issue. You ever read assembly instructions for products that come from china?

[Phi for All]

7 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Might just be a translation issue. You ever read assembly instructions for products that come from china?

I want instructions, and I get philosophical guidance with drawings by Escher. 😝

[CharonY]

16 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

Interesting choice of words, and most likely exaggerated. Even if you could sterilize the whole elevator every hour, it's non-sterile the moment someone enters.

That is true for all sterilizing procedures. While I doubt that there is a real sterilization going on other than wiping with disinfectants, it does not strike me as wrong as such. 

[Mike Tannenbaum]

Can some one, please, explain me (I am a forensic doctor) if the virus has a supposedly such low rate death (2% aprox. Some "experts" say that flu virus is much worst) WHY all this overreaction: cities isolated, army in the streets, people histerically escaping and so on?

Are they telling us the truth? Do they know something we don't know yet? Thanks a lot !

[StringJunky]

12 minutes ago, Mike Tannenbaum said:

Can some one, please, explain me (I am a forensic doctor) if the virus has a supposedly such low rate death (2% aprox. Some "experts" say that flu virus is much worst) WHY all this overreaction: cities isolated, army in the streets, people histerically escaping and so on?

Are they telling us the truth? Do they know something we don't know yet? Thanks a lot !

Rumour and the internet = match + petrol.

[swansont]

2 minutes ago, Mike Tannenbaum said:

Can some one, please, explain me (I am a forensic doctor) if the virus has a supposedly such low rate death (2% aprox. Some "experts" say that flu virus is much worst) WHY all this overreaction: cities isolated, army in the streets, people histerically escaping and so on?

Are they telling us the truth? Do they know something we don't know yet? Thanks a lot !

The flu can be worse, but not for all strains, and we develop vaccines for the strains expected to be problematic each year.

Less is known about the coronavirus, and we don't (yet) have a vaccine for COVID-19.

 

[CharonY]

22 minutes ago, Mike Tannenbaum said:

Can some one, please, explain me (I am a forensic doctor) if the virus has a supposedly such low rate death (2% aprox. Some "experts" say that flu virus is much worst) WHY all this overreaction: cities isolated, army in the streets, people histerically escaping and so on?

Are they telling us the truth? Do they know something we don't know yet? Thanks a lot !

A) we do not know the actual fatality rate yet. The ~2% are based on current estimates, but it is higher than influenza (0.2-0.3%) but lower than either earlier SARS or MERS; B) Influenza is worse as it affects more people each season (at least so far), the result are overall more deaths; C) Deaths alone are not necessarily a great indicator, one should also consider other health burdens' D) Quarantines are enacted to curb spread. If a similar number of folks are allowed to be infected as seasonal influenza, the results are potentially devastating. 

Think about that way, seasonal influenza deaths are estimated to be around 250-645k worldwide each year. If the same amount of folks are infected (and ignoring demographic differences in outcome) we may end with upward to 20 times the number of fatalities. No need for conspiracy theories to see the need for intervention.  

Edit: sorry forgot to address the point about hysteria: I guess social media and the internet.

[Phi for All]

30 minutes ago, Mike Tannenbaum said:

Can some one, please, explain me (I am a forensic doctor) if the virus has a supposedly such low rate death (2% aprox. Some "experts" say that flu virus is much worst) WHY all this overreaction: cities isolated, army in the streets, people histerically escaping and so on?

Are they telling us the truth? Do they know something we don't know yet? Thanks a lot !

I'm not a doctor like you, but it seems easy to understand why we need drastic action while containment is still a possibility. Are you telling us the truth?

[Sensei]

6 minutes ago, Mike Tannenbaum said:

Can some one, please, explain me (I am a forensic doctor) if the virus has a supposedly such low rate death (2% aprox. Some "experts" say that flu virus is much worst)

Annual flu has fatality rate 0.1%-0.15%. Corronavirus at least twenty times higher. In China today 4% and Italy 3% (today 7 from 224 infected). Availability of medical staff is important factor affecting fatality rate. Without enough personel infected people will be dying not because they are simply ill, but because there is nobody to take care of them during illness..

"While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates thatinfluenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deathsannually since 2010."

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Annual flu has 45 mln infected and 800k hospitalised 1.8% rate. In the USA.

Coronavirus has 100% hospitalised rate.

There is physical limit how many people can be simultaneously hospitalised. 3rd world countries are not prepared for such pendemia..