Coronavirus / COVID-19 posts

[hypervalent_iodine]

As of a few minutes ago, I went ahead and merged many of the threads and posts regarding Coronavirus into three threads:

 

 

 

 

 

I understand that many have questions regarding coronavirus / COVID-19, but I think we can do without 20 different threads on the topic. To reduce clutter, I have created the above threads, and would ask members to please direct their questions / findings to the relevant one. If anyone objects or thinks I have missed something, please let me know. I myself am working from home; time is a luxury I have far too much of at the moment. 

 

[albertcandy]

what about current situation of covid-19 

[iNow]

What about it? Better question needed to arrive at better answer. 

[beecee]

11 hours ago, albertcandy said:

what about current situation of covid-19 

Keep following the science.

[CharonY]

On 8/11/2021 at 7:38 AM, coxdenis32 said:

We are waiting for a new wave, but we hope for herd immunity((

I think at this point most already agree that herd immunity is not going to happen anymore. It was a bit of a pipe dream for a while (especially how things were going) and with delta it has become pretty much impossible.

[StringJunky]

23 hours ago, CharonY said:

I think at this point most already agree that herd immunity is not going to happen anymore. It was a bit of a pipe dream for a while (especially how things were going) and with delta it has become pretty much impossible.

You think it will be  persistent and ubiquitous, like flu and other common respiratory pathogens now? Is there too strains now? What factors tell you that herd immunity is off the table?

Edited August 13, 2021 by StringJunky

[CharonY]

4 hours ago, StringJunky said:

You think it will be  persistent and ubiquitous, like flu and other common respiratory pathogens now? Is there too strains now? What factors tell you that herd immunity is off the table?

I think I posted something about herd immunity here somewhere, but cannot find the post, so a quick recap:

The crux of the matter is the effective reproduction number, which is a function of the basic reproduction number (R0): R=R0xS, where R0 is the basic reproduction number and s is the proportion of sensitive folks in a population. At R=1 each infection will on average infect one other person. I.e. the infection will remain steady in a population. At R <1 we have a situation where herd immunity happens and the number of infections will decrease.

In other words, based on R0 you need a certain threshold of folks which are immune (given as 1-S) to reach an R<1. So we can calculate the required herd immunity threshold (H) as: H=1-1/R0  

The delta variant has a currently estimated R0 of 5-8 (some assume it to be as high as 10 but let's keep it at more conservative estimates for now). So the required proportion of immune folks to maintain infection rates steady would 80-87.5% and higher levels are required to make it drop.

Now the most effective vaccines are about 88% effective against delta and if we assume that 80% of the total population (including kids) is getting vaccinated, we still would only be at ~70% immune folks in the population. Considering vaccine hesitancy, the values are likely to be even lower. 

 

[iNow]

Summarized: vaccinations needed to reach herd immunity is based on ease of spread. How easy a virus can spread dictates how many people must be vaccinated to reach heed immunity. 

Now that Covid’s grandkid is spreading more easily (and also still evolving… see also lambda variant) all at the same time that [str]people[/str] fucking morons still refuse to vaccinate (and poorer countries simply can’t afford to) means reaching herd immunity is now all but impossible. 

Edited August 14, 2021 by iNow

[StringJunky]

Cheers guys

[iNow]

1 minute ago, StringJunky said:

Cheers guys

🥃 

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Summarized: vaccinations needed to reach herd immunity is based on ease of spread. How easy a virus can spread dictates how many people must be vaccinated to reach heed immunity. 

Now that Covid’s grandkid is spreading more easily (and also still evolving… see also lambda variant) all at the same time that [str]people[/str] fucking morons still refuse to vaccinate (and poorer countries simply can’t afford to) means reaching herd immunity is now all but impossible. 

What he said.

[TheVat]

Just a quick thanks to Charon for so clearly explaining RO and herd immunity... and to INow for revealing to me that one can write "fucking moron" at this website.  That's definitely going to free me up a bit when discussing anti-vax,  social media,  political factions, theocrats, "scientists" at the Heartland Institute,  climate denial,  Q-Anon, the MyPillow man,  and all who misuse the word "literally. "  

Cheers.  

[iNow]

Precision of language in science is critical to conveying accurate information and driving clear understanding. That one, however, must be used incredibly sparingly to ensure the parts we all love most about this community don’t degrade too quickly. 

[exchemist]

18 minutes ago, iNow said:

Precision of language in science is critical to conveying accurate information and driving clear understanding. That one, however, must be used incredibly sparingly to ensure the parts we all love most about this community don’t degrade too quickly. 

© Rex Tillerson 2017 😃

[TheVat]

28 minutes ago, iNow said:

Precision of language in science is critical to conveying accurate information and driving clear understanding. That one, however, must be used incredibly sparingly to ensure the parts we all love most about this community don’t degrade too quickly. 

Indeed.   I trust it will be understood my list was somewhat tongue-in-cheek and that I would not squander the Holy Hand Grenade of "FM" on mere fools.   

[beecee]

18 hours ago, iNow said:

 Now that Covid’s grandkid is spreading more easily (and also still evolving… see also lambda variant) all at the same time that [str]people[/str] fucking morons still refuse to vaccinate (and poorer countries simply can’t afford to) means reaching herd immunity is now all but impossible. 

At last as cases balloon in Sydney, Police, military personel, and other authorities have been given immense power to curb these anti-vaxxers and other anti-science morons, with quadruple increases in fines and jail. 

I hope you are wrong though with the unlikelyhood of herd immunity.

[CharonY]

41 minutes ago, beecee said:

At last as cases balloon in Sydney, Police, military personel, and other authorities have been given immense power to curb these anti-vaxxers and other anti-science morons, with quadruple increases in fines and jail. 

I hope you are wrong though with the unlikelyhood of herd immunity.

As mentioned above, the mechanisms make it very unlikely that given current circulation rates we can vaccinate our way out of this situation. That is not to say that eradication is impossible in the long run. Continuous vaccination efforts with isolating infected individuals and other measures together can, over time drive the virus down to extinction.

That being said, we would be likely looking at years at minimum for that to happen, if it happens. Polio eradication took decades and is still not complete, for example. It worked for smallpox, though (after close to two decades of efforts).

19 hours ago, iNow said:

(and poorer countries simply can’t afford to) 

So this is yet another thing that I cannot wrap my head around during this pandemic. Why the heck is there no patent waiver (at minimum)?  Somehow folks seem to continuously forget the "pan" in pandemic. Also it demonstrates that no, humanity is apparently not able to pull together to face a common foe, and that zombie movies are in fact documentaries of human folly.

[qgufmwa]

On the recent news basis, again covid attacking. Every use the mask and maintain social distance. 

[exchemist]

15 hours ago, qgufmwa said:

On the recent news basis, again covid attacking. Every use the mask and maintain social distance. 

In what country?