Comparing Corona Virus Success Stories with Abysmal Failures

[CharonY]

According to an article (in Vanity Fair of all places), the bumbling response in the US was not only sheer incompetence on the top, but also strategic:

Quote

Against that background, the prospect of launching a large-scale national plan was losing favor, said one public health expert in frequent contact with the White House’s official coronavirus task force.

Most troubling of all, perhaps, was a sentiment the expert said a member of Kushner’s team expressed: that because the virus had hit blue states hardest, a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically. “The political folks believed that because it was going to be relegated to Democratic states, that they could blame those governors, and that would be an effective political strategy,” said the expert.

That logic may have swayed Kushner. “It was very clear that Jared was ultimately the decision maker as to what [plan] was going to come out,” the expert said.

So far COVID-19 has killed over 155,000 people. In comparison, flu killed an estimated 24-62k throughout the 19/20 season (in addition, of course). And the deaths are trending upwards.

 

Edit: and on top the WH decided not to have the CDC collect and publish COVID-19 data but rather now want to do it themselves. Certainly nothing shady going on here.

[J.C.MacSwell]

20 hours ago, CharonY said:

According to an article (in Vanity Fair of all places), the bumbling response in the US was not only sheer incompetence on the top, but also strategic:

One thing the article notes is the long average delivery time for results of tests (4 to 11, and then 7 currently was mentioned. A couple of weeks back my wife was tested here in Nova Scotia on a Sunday afternoon and told she would receive results in the next 24 to 48 hours. She actually received them the next morning. (negative as expected)

Nova Scotia currently has just 2 known active cases with just the 2 new ones in some time (as of 2 days ago there were 0 known active cases). Both related to travel outside the country and both were self isolating on arrival so hopefully no spread will come of it. We've benefitted from having a small population, approx 1 million, that is relatively easy to isolate geographically, though we've increased our "bubble" to about include 3 other Atlantic Provinces with similar low numbers of active cases (total approx 2.4 million in the Atlantic Provinces)

Despite low case numbers, as of yesterday masks have been mandated for most indoor public spaces in anticipation of a second wave coming after schools open in September and Flu season approaches. 

 

Again with regard to the article: Obviously there are better ways and worse ways to respond to this disease. The best National plan would help in the US, but I doubt it needs to be centrally managed from the Whitehouse. 

Canada has a smaller population than California. Our National response has only required cooperation with the US. Different set of circumstances of course but California is probably as capable of directing it's own response.

Edited August 1, 2020 by J.C.MacSwell

[iNow]

45 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

The best National plan would help in the US, but I doubt it needs to be centrally managed from the Whitehouse. 

It sort of has to be. If the logistics are centralized at the federal level, who other than the WH would manage it? They’re the executive branch and consequently are responsible for executing national policies and programs.

[J.C.MacSwell]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

It sort of has to be. If the logistics are centralized at the federal level, who other than the WH would manage it? They’re the executive branch and consequently are responsible for executing national policies and programs.

Sorry INow. That was badly worded. "The best National plan would help in the US, but I doubt it needs to be centrally managed from the Whitehouse" by it I meant the response to the pandemic, thinking at more State and local levels, not the National plan itself.

[swansont]

Some things have to be done at the WH level, because presidential authority is required. Compelling companies to do certain manufacturing, for instance.

[iNow]

Also, the virus doesn’t recognize state borders. I can drive to any state from any state, so having one approach in Ohio that differs from the approach in Michigan is pretty dumb. National standards are the only way to do this right. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Also, the virus doesn’t recognize state borders. I can drive to any state from any state, so having one approach in Ohio that differs from the approach in Michigan is pretty dumb. National standards are the only way to do this right. 

Some restrictions apply...

[CharonY]

And it should be added that in Canada feds heavily supported provincial responses, e.g. by negotiating and buying PPE in bulk on their behalf.

Meanwhile, in the US the feds made the states outbid each other for PPE access and helped private contractors to enrich themselves in the process.

[J.C.MacSwell]

26 minutes ago, CharonY said:

And it should be added that in Canada feds heavily supported provincial responses, e.g. by negotiating and buying PPE in bulk on their behalf.

Meanwhile, in the US the feds made the states outbid each other for PPE access and helped private contractors to enrich themselves in the process.

I can see that being an advantage for Provinces. Is it also somehow an advantage for Canada vs (say) California?

I do believe Canada has been able to negotiate generally better prescription drug  pricing, though unclear how they are able to do that.

[CharonY]

4 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

I can see that being an advantage for Provinces. Is it also somehow an advantage for Canada vs (say) California?

Do you mean in direct competition or overall efficiencies when comparing to a large state? What Canada has also done is trying to create a better supply chain for PPEs but also chemicals for required for testing. While Canada tried to help provincial labs and other test labs to get needed stocks (including asking research labs for unused chemicals at the beginning of the pandemic) in the US each state needed to secure their own supply and outbid each other, as well as the feds, which also outbid several states in the process. 

So even with California's buying power it meant that prices went up and on top, the fact that it is harder to secure a supply chain, it also meant that they needed to stockpile more, and thereby creating more scarcity. 

[iNow]

9 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Some restrictions apply...

Such as?

I know New York has said that people from certain other states (like mine) must self-quarantine for 2 weeks upon arriving, but that’s not possible to enforce in any way. IMO, it’s a bit like putting the tag on the bottom of a mattress which says do not remove under penalty of law. I’ve removed tens of them and nobody was ever the wiser.

I can also fly into any airport and walk right out the sliding doors into an Uber without so much as a temperature check. I can kayak from South Dakota into North Dakota and go into town and wander the streets going into and out of shops and food services as I see fit without any identification... and other countless similar examples.

Given this, I’m unclear on the point your communicating. Did you have any specific restrictions in mind?

Edited August 2, 2020 by iNow

[CharonY]

Just a guess, but maybe you cannot drive to Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam and/or Alaska? The latter being loophole that Canada tries to patch as folks do not want diseased folks from the South. Which, btw., is fricken ironic.

[iNow]

Bah. I can drive to Hawaii.. if my car is cool enough. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

10 hours ago, iNow said:

Such as?

I know New York has said that people from certain other states (like mine) must self-quarantine for 2 weeks upon arriving, but that’s not possible to enforce in any way. IMO, it’s a bit like putting the tag on the bottom of a mattress which says do not remove under penalty of law. I’ve removed tens of them and nobody was ever the wiser.

I can also fly into any airport and walk right out the sliding doors into an Uber without so much as a temperature check. I can kayak from South Dakota into North Dakota and go into town and wander the streets going into and out of shops and food services as I see fit without any identification... and other countless similar examples.

Given this, I’m unclear on the point your communicating. Did you have any specific restrictions in mind?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/travel/state-travel-restrictions.html

Of course if you are willing and capable of breaking guidelines and laws, no restrictions would apply to you.

Fortunately for us in Nova Scotia it is a little harder to do so.

On 8/1/2020 at 9:16 AM, J.C.MacSwell said:

 We've benefitted from having a small population, approx 1 million, that is relatively easy to isolate geographically, though we've increased our "bubble" to about include 3 other Atlantic Provinces with similar low numbers of active cases (total approx 2.4 million in the Atlantic Provinces)

 

As all of you would understand better than most, even seemingly small advantages can become huge, due to the nature of exponential spread and the ability to keep numbers low enough that contact tracing is effective. (though things can still change very quickly)

Edited August 2, 2020 by J.C.MacSwell

[iNow]

36 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Of course if you are willing and capable of breaking guidelines and laws, no restrictions would apply to you.

You mean like all those millions of Americans who refuse even to wear a simple mask? 

[J.C.MacSwell]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

You mean like all those millions of Americans who refuse even to wear a simple mask? 

Why would I not? I've been a proponent of there appropriate use here even back when the CDC was claiming them as dangerous and unnecessary for the general public.

[iNow]

6 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Why would I not? I've been a proponent of there appropriate use here even back when the CDC was claiming them as dangerous and unnecessary for the general public.

My bigger point is that your mention of restrictions is interesting, but not relevant since they’re unenforceable and ignored by many. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

1 minute ago, iNow said:

My bigger point is that your mention of restrictions is interesting, but not relevant since they’re unenforceable and ignored by many. 

They are still very relevant.

As bad as it might be, it would be worse without them or ignored by more.

[iNow]

Ok. Maybe. 

[CharonY]

Here is an interesting paper examining responses to COVId-19. It focuses on Europe but it highlights how important coordinated efforts are:

Quote

As rates of new COVID-19 cases decline across Europe due to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Here, we use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we found that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe meant half as many lockdown periods were required to end community transmission continent-wide.

 

[StringJunky]

On 7/31/2020 at 5:42 PM, CharonY said:

According to an article (in Vanity Fair of all places), the bumbling response in the US was not only sheer incompetence on the top, but also strategic:

So far COVID-19 has killed over 155,000 people. In comparison, flu killed an estimated 24-62k throughout the 19/20 season (in addition, of course). And the deaths are trending upwards.

 

Edit: and on top the WH decided not to have the CDC collect and publish COVID-19 data but rather now want to do it themselves. Certainly nothing shady going on here.

Here's a few current confirmed cases trends I picked out from John Hopkins data site: 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

UK

 

Columbia

 

Germany

 

China

 

India

 

US

Edited August 2, 2020 by StringJunky

[iNow]

As bad as US has been, India seems likely to surpass given their sheer size 

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

As bad as US has been, India seems likely to surpass given their sheer size 

Most likely. In a country of that size implementing effective containment is difficult. However, surprisingly China had a decent success to keep it contained,  (even if they do underreport). But I do not understand the Indian system well enough to comment. The little what I heard is that their reporting system is mostly inadequate, which does not bode well.

[iNow]

1 hour ago, CharonY said:

Most likely. In a country of that size implementing effective containment is difficult. However, surprisingly China had a decent success to keep it contained,  (even if they do underreport). But I do not understand the Indian system well enough to comment. The little what I heard is that their reporting system is mostly inadequate, which does not bode well.

Their reporting system is less relevant to me than their lifestyle. Close communal living and lack of education or hygiene are frustratingly common across the subcontinent. 

[CharonY]

29 minutes ago, iNow said:

Their reporting system is less relevant to me than their lifestyle. Close communal living and lack of education or hygiene are frustratingly common across the subcontinent. 

The reporting system is to me a stronger indicator of organized central responses are going to be. There are countries with similar challenges (though being way smaller) which have been more successful than others. In most cases a strong coordinated response was the reason.

Case in point, we got a rich, well-educated country high standard of living and much fewer issues with sanitation. But the response was half-hearted, to say the least.