The end of modern civilization is near?

[Moreno]

Population native to nearly all industrially developed nations is not self sustainable demographically. They could retain the same level of population (or small growth) only due to immigration from less developed nations. More and more of these immigrants come and will come from the countries which were not even fully industrialized. What do you think majority of modern industrialized countries will look like in 40-100 years? Do you think they will experience no sharp and long term crisis in this timeframe and no major revision of existing model will be needed? Do you think there will be at least the same pace of the scientific and technical development and economic/social output in 50-1000 years as now, if present demographic trends will continue? Ethnic German females produce less than 1 child on average, 1/3 of 35 years old Japanese are childless... 

Average fertility rates by country. Grey - less than 2, yellow - less than 3, orange - 3-4, red - more than four. The CIA world factbook is taken as the source. I suspect that data for Saudi Arabia and Turkey could be incorrect. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Moreno

[iNow]

So, basically Malthusianism again?

[Strange]

37 minutes ago, Moreno said:

Do you think there will be at least the same pace of the scientific and technical development and economic/social output in 50-1000 years as now, if present demographic trends will continue?

Arguably, it should increase. Immigrants are, on average, healthier than the non-migrant population (1) and tend to be more entrepreneurial (2) and do better educationally.

Also, with an ageing population with a fertility rate of 1 or less, wealthier countries depend on immigration for the future workforce.

I'm not sure what your point is?

(1) https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/4/default.htm

(2) https://hbr.org/2018/10/research-shows-immigrants-help-businesses-grow-heres-why

Quote

The end of modern civilization is near?

You know how they say "there is no such thing as a stupid question" ?

[Moreno]

56 minutes ago, iNow said:

So, basically Malthusianism again?

I wonder whether modern industrialized nation are not going to do something to increase fertility rates of their native and most educated population and whether no one influential is even thinking in this direction. But it looks like some major social and economic changes will need to be implemented to correct the problem.
 

Quote

 

Arguably, it should increase. Immigrants are, on average, healthier than the non-migrant population (1) and tend to be more entrepreneurial (2) and do better educationally.

 

Immigrants are coming from different countries. For example from coastal China, Korea or Eastern Europe. But now these countries started to experience demographic problems themselves and cannot be regarded as a bottomless supply of immigrants. But if we are talking about immigrants from predominantly agrarian or resource selling countries/territories, are you sure they (and their descendants) are more successful than native population in developed countries?! Where did you take these speculative statements from? Majority of politicians and researchers claim rater completely opposite things...

Edited May 4, 2020 by Moreno

[StringJunky]

6 minutes ago, Moreno said:

I wonder whether modern industrialized nation are not going to do something to increase fertility rates of their native and most educated population and whether no one influential is even thinking in this direction. But it looks like some major social and economic changes will need to be implemented to correct the problem.

Why? To preserve ethnic bloodlines? I think climate change will facilitate more migration well before that becomes an issue. Japan is facing this issue right now and looking at the options.

Edited May 4, 2020 by StringJunky

[Strange]

50 minutes ago, Moreno said:

I wonder whether modern industrialized nation are not going to do something to increase fertility rates of their native and most educated population and whether no one influential is even thinking in this direction.

The big problem is over population. So the ideal is to reduce fertility rates (which you do mainly by improving education, particularly for women).

But, perhaps not surprisingly, some far right leaders do try to follow the policy you suggest. 

50 minutes ago, Moreno said:

But now these countries started to experience demographic problems themselves and cannot be regarded as a bottomless supply of immigrants.

Yes, that can be a problem. But it can also be a benefit to the home country: many migrants from poorer countries send back money. Many migrants will eventually return with higher education and wealth than they would have had otherwise.

But, again, the solution is not stopping migration. The solution is improving education, health and wealth in all countries. 

50 minutes ago, Moreno said:

are you sure they (and their descendants) are more successful than native population in developed countries?

Well I thought you might ask that, which is why I provided links to the evidence. 

50 minutes ago, Moreno said:

Majority of politicians and researchers claim rater completely opposite things...

Which would you trust more: far-right populists and their “researchers” or the scientific evidence?

[Moreno]

2 minutes ago, Strange said:

Which would you trust more: far-right populists and their “researchers” or the scientific evidence?

This is the thing which are claimed by such politicians as Angela Merkel, Macron, and some British prime minister. Do you want me to find the links? Do you regard them far-right? And many others. Vladimir Putin. Trump is building the fence with Mexico for some reason. Could you name some well known entrepreneurs, scientists etc, who are immigrants (or their descendants) from agrarian/resource based countries? Well, there are few of them, but they already came to the West with huge money, rather than earned them from the scratch in the West. 

[Strange]

12 minutes ago, Moreno said:

Do you want me to find the links?

Yes.

12 minutes ago, Moreno said:

Do you regard them far-right?

Certainly the last few British Prime Ministers. I would be surprised about the others. (So, yes, citations definitely needed.)

13 minutes ago, Moreno said:

And many others. Vladimir Putin. Trump is building the fence with Mexico for some reason.

And Orban. And the Brazilian one. As I said, far-right populists. 

14 minutes ago, Moreno said:

Could you name some well known entrepreneurs, scientists etc, who are immigrants (or their descendants) from agrarian/resource based countries?

Why? Isn't the scientific evidence good enough? You prefer some anecdotes about celebrities instead? (One could find plenty of individual examples, obviously, but I'm not going to bother because it isn't relevant.)

 

[J.C.MacSwell]

 

1 hour ago, Moreno said:

 What do you think majority of modern industrialized countries will look like in 40-100 years? 

 

Picking any easy one: (I doubt I'll be here in 40 years to be rebutted)

I think the populations will be greater and more ethnically diverse, barring some catastrophe, with immigration making up for the lower birth rates in developed countries.

[Moreno]

36 minutes ago, Strange said:

The big problem is over population. So the ideal is to reduce fertility rates (which you do mainly by improving education, particularly for women).

Then what is the optimal population quantity on Earth should be? And what to do if population will start to go below that level somewhere in the future?

[J.C.MacSwell]

7 minutes ago, Strange said:

Yes.

Certainly the last few British Prime Ministers.

 

Far right? Do you consider all 3 Conservatives far right?

6 minutes ago, Moreno said:

Then what is the optimal population quantity on Earth should be? And what to do if population will start to go below that level somewhere in the future?

Nature (read evolution) tends to favour a surplus. Not many fear a situation where immigration can't make up any difference caused by birth control, female education etc.

[Strange]

17 minutes ago, Moreno said:

Then what is the optimal population quantity on Earth should be? And what to do if population will start to go below that level somewhere in the future?

I don't think there is any such thing.

[Moreno]

9 minutes ago, Strange said:

I don't think there is any such thing.

So, you think population on Earth will grow indefinitely? And those agrarian countries which have high fertility rates now will supply immigrants forever? Also, if modern post-industrial countries suppose to import large quantities of immigrants from agrarian/industrial countries, then don't you afraid that later countries will constantly experience large brain drain and it will constantly interrupt their development? Sorry, I forgot there is a scientific evidence that all the Papuans are extremely talented, so perhaps it will not.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Moreno

[Strange]

6 minutes ago, Moreno said:

So, you think population on Earth will grow indefinitely?

What? No. Who said that? The average fertility rate has already fallen enough to limit population growth. It is predicted to grow to somewhere between 7 and 11 billion people. That is probably, just about sustainable. Unlimited growth would not be. If efforts to improve health and education work then it should start decreasing from there, which will put less of a strain on the Earth's resources.

10 minutes ago, Moreno said:

And those agrarian countries which have high fertility rates now will supply immigrants forever? Also, if modern post-industrial countries suppose to import large quantities of immigrants from agrarian/industrial countries, then don't you afraid that later countries will constantly experience large brain drain and it will constantly interrupt their development? Sorry, I forgot there is a scientific evidence that all the Papuans are extremely talented, so perhaps it will not.

I don't know where all this nonsense is coming from. What is this "scientific evidence that all the Papuans are extremely talented" you are talking about? (I mean, maybe they are. I have no idea. But it seems unlikely.) And how is it relevant? The population of PNG is about the same as a large city. So what are you talking about?

[J.C.MacSwell]

9 minutes ago, Strange said:

What? No. Who said that? The average fertility rate has already fallen enough to limit population growth. It is predicted to grow to somewhere between 7 and 11 billion people. That is probably, just about sustainable. Unlimited growth would not be. If efforts to improve health and education work then it should start decreasing from there, which will put less of a strain on the Earth's resources.

I don't know where all this nonsense is coming from. What is this "scientific evidence that all the Papuans are extremely talented" you are talking about? (I mean, maybe they are. I have no idea. But it seems unlikely.) And how is it relevant? The population of PNG is about the same as a large city. So what are you talking about?

Welcome to 2011!

[Moreno]

12 minutes ago, Strange said:

That is probably, just about sustainable. Unlimited growth would not be. 

So, it will stabilize at some level and freeze at that point forever? And modern post-industrial nations with their deeply negative population rates will be forgotten like a nightmare?

[MigL]

This is purely anecdotal, but I will present it anyway...

During the 1950s ( after the war ) most Italian small towns and villages south of Rome  were 'agrarian'. Very few businesses and even less industry ( mostly in larger cities ) and any paying job was extremely difficult to come by.
My dad emigrated to Argentina for work in the early 50s, and returned to Italy in '55.
He married my mom in '57 and I was born a few years later. He went to work in Switzerland for several years, and I only saw him during summer vacation and Christmas time. Finally, we came to Canada in '68, so the whole family could be together.
My dad worked two jobs, and my mother also worked, but we purchased a home ( where I still live ), and both my brother and I were able to attend University ( we both studied physics ).

I consider myself to be a productive member of society, even though I come from what you've labelled an 'agrarian' background.
Where people come from doesn't matter; what matters is what they make of themselves.

Edited May 5, 2020 by MigL

[iNow]

5 minutes ago, MigL said:

Where people come from doesn't matter

But it does to the ignorant and small minded 

[Moreno]

34 minutes ago, MigL said:

This is purely anecdotal, but I will present it anyway...

During the 1950s ( after the war ) most Italian small towns and villages south of Rome  were 'agrarian'. Very few businesses and even less industry ( mostly in larger cities ) and any paying job was extremely difficult to come by.
My dad emigrated to Argentina for work in the early 50s, and returned to Italy in '55.
He married my mom in '57 and I was born a few years later. He went to work in Switzerland for several years, and I only saw him during summer vacation and Christmas time. Finally, we came to Canada in '68, so the whole family could be together.
My dad worked two jobs, and my mother also worked, but we purchased a home ( where I still live ), and both my brother and I were able to attend University ( we both studied physics ).

I consider myself to be a productive member of society, even though I come from what you've labelled an 'agrarian' background.
Where people come from doesn't matter; what matters is what they make of themselves.

So, would you agree on unlimited immigration to Canada from any country? There is no limit to a number of immigrants Canada can accept? There should be no any selection? I was talking about entire civilizations rather than city/countryside differences. South Italy still produces not too much from what I know, but still whole Italy is a relatively successful post-industrial country, which was an industrial powerhorse in the past.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Moreno

[iNow]

1 hour ago, Moreno said:

So, you think population on Earth will grow indefinitely?

36 minutes ago, Moreno said:

So, would you agree on unlimited immigration to Canada from any country? There is no limit

You do realize it’s not all or nothing, right? That there are many other thresholds available on the spectrum? It’s not a binary choice. 

[CharonY]

It is interesting that OP also does not consider the increasing development of countries which coincides with a reduction of birth rates. It is also weird that folks worrying about native birth rates at the same time hold up the spectre of unlimited immigration. And of course the weird assumption that if fewer natives are around that somehow there will be a cultural/scientific decline, without of a shred of evidence, of course.

 

[Moreno]

6 hours ago, CharonY said:

And of course the weird assumption that if fewer natives are around that somehow there will be a cultural/scientific decline, without of a shred of evidence, of course.

Quote

IQ scores have been steadily falling for the past few decades

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/13/health/falling-iq-scores-study-intl/index.html

There are IQ tests in different countries regularly. 25 years ago there were claims that average German IQ scores on this tests were 102 points, while Russian 96 points. Now they reduced average German to 99 point, while increased average Russian to 97 points. Which is higher than real average USA somewhere at 94-96 points.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/average-iq-by-country/

Quote

 

CharonY said:

It is interesting that OP also does not consider the increasing development of countries which coincides with a reduction of birth rates.

 

Of course I do. And it makes me to think that immigration cannot be regarded as an indefinite solution. Ultimately all the World population will start to decline indefinitely and some other solution will be needed to encourage stability. So, maybe it's better to start these "other solutions" right now in post-industrial countries than organize brain drain from developing countries hindering their development?

Edited May 5, 2020 by Moreno

[Strange]

10 hours ago, Moreno said:

So, it will stabilize at some level and freeze at that point forever? 

No. Who said that?

9 hours ago, Moreno said:

So, would you agree on unlimited immigration to Canada from any country?

No one said that.

Please stop making these idiotic straw man arguments.

I am going to report this thread as breaking the rule about discussions in good faith.

7 hours ago, CharonY said:

And of course the weird assumption that if fewer natives are around that somehow there will be a cultural/scientific decline, without of a shred of evidence, of course.

And, if anything, what evidence there is points in the other direction.

1 hour ago, Moreno said:

Ultimately all the World population will start to decline indefinitely and some other solution will be needed to encourage stability. So, maybe it's better to start these "other solutions" right now in post-industrial countries

The population is expected to peak around the end of the century. Any decline from there will be slow. It may be another century until the population drops to the current level. And another 100 or 200 years before it falls to a level that is easily sustainable without putting excessive strain on resources.

So starting to promote population growth now seems just a little premature. Maybe you could hang on for another 300 years or so and see what the situation is then.

However, I don't think these forecasts take into account the possibility of disastrous climate change or, say, a global pandemic. 

[Moreno]

Quote

German IQ Free Fall: 5 Years To Stability Threshold Germans On The Run And The Reasons

https://www.science20.com/alpha_meme/german_iq_free_fall_5_years_to_stability_threshold_germans_on_the_run_and_the_reasons-180605

41 minutes ago, Strange said:

So starting to promote population growth now seems just a little premature.

Developed countries need to change their model in order to increase domestic fertility rates and provide extensive help to developing countries to stabilize their population and help them combat extensive fertility rates which hinder their development and cause crushing impact on ecology. Otherwise soon there will be no rainforests anymore. And stop the brain drain.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Moreno

[Strange]

12 minutes ago, Moreno said:

German IQ Free Fall: 5 Years To Stability Threshold Germans On The Run And The Reasons

Racist quotes racist for support. What a surprise.