A posible reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

[JamesVa94]

While reading The Modern Prometheus the other day, a specific passage got my attention; the one where Frankenstein meets two of his college teachers, the one being Krempe who told him to discard all of the ancient natural philosophy knowlegde he had, and rather gaze to modern forms of it. The other, professor Waldman, who instead tells Frakenstein not to discard said knowledge at all, for that is the base and core of everything we've achieved so far.

Then, a specific person came to my mind: Edward Jenner. Called by many "The father of inmunology". Of course, he comes to mind in regards of the current situation we are in. Jenner was merely a curious man, a literateur who happened to find the Cowpox being able to affect humans, with the exception of those who where in a very close connvivance with said animal, and such persons would already be vaccinated against the smallpox, due to their inmune system adaptability to fight the virus because of such coexistence with the cow, or in that case, the reservoir.

Having all of that in mind, this research takes its focus on that idea. Experts think that the most possible reservoirs of the SARS-CoV-2 Could be the bat, but somehow it hasn't yet done enough to shed some light on the matter of the current pandemic. 

Looking at the world map of the infected countries with Jenner discoveries/theory on mind, Indonesia seems to stand out as one of the less affected places despite being the fourth most populated place in the world. As of now, Indonesia has a total of 26,940 confirmed COVID-19 cases. It is important to note that cultural beliefs in Indonesia lead people not to listen the recommended sanitary measures while still reporting a low rate of contagion. With this idea on mind by hand with Jenner's we could say that there could possibly be a reservoir thats in direct connvivance with Indonesian people. 

With the previous in mind we can take a look a their ecosystem or fauna and link it to other places that could potentialy bring us to a reservoir. If we keep Edward discoveries in mind, we can take a look for example at Goats, wich have a high coexistence with Indonesia citizens. If we go to a China contagion map we see that Ningxia has a really low contagion rate, while sharing some cultural way of life with Indonesia. Furthermore, in the list of the items sold at the Wuhan Wet market that also shares goats as some of the items. Also, according to a National Geographic article a study on march 2020 identified a number of species that the virus could infect, the Goat was among these species.

The purpose of this post is to aproach the matter in a way that most seem to be discarding by ignoring something that we have on plain sight, as it happened on Jenners cows. I am not by all means saying that the Goat is the reservoir, but rather bringing to attention that the old investigation philosophy should not be discarded by the new.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/miracle-explains-bali-coronavirus-cases-200502035557649.html

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:COVID-19_Outbreak_Cases_in_Mainland_China.svg

https://mustsharenews.com/wuhan-market-animals-menu/

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2020/03/coronavirus-animal-reservoir-research/

Edited June 1, 2020 by JamesVa94
Finger mistakes

[swansont]

Are the numbers reliable?

From your first link

Quote

 

But the real question is - is this real or just an artefact of under-reporting?"

Indonesia has one of the worst COVID-19 testing rates in the world - only 374 for every million compared with 20,241 for every million in the United States and 24,600 in Singapore, according to coronavirus tallying site Worldometer. In Bali, an island of about four million people, only about 1,300 tests have been conducted so far.

 

 

[JamesVa94]

No, at least not from the medical and authority point of view. But from the people's reaction it might. Indonesia's main religion is Islam, they gather in large numbers and pray; they also refuse to pray in home. Acording to them, it is their prayers and good karma that keeps them safe, wich at some degree shows that the people is positive about not having that many infected. Also, theres what Dr Hadisoemarto said wich is in the Aljazeera Article: The truth is no one can explain what is happening in Bali. It's very interesting, and someone needs to go there and do the research because it could help us come up with an answer to stop COVID-19 in its tracks.

Thats why Nignxia got my eye too. They're an independent region in China, the predominant religion is Islam as well, wich leads people to have a specific way of life and convvivance with the world around them. They only had 78 COVID-19 cases, all of them recovered, no deceases.

[swansont]

You agree we can’t believe the numbers, and then base your argument on believing the numbers.

[JamesVa94]

I agree that the numbers given the evidence and context of indonesia specifically, cannot be trusted.

Edited June 2, 2020 by JamesVa94

[CharonY]

The issue here is a lack of direct evidence (e.g. identification of a related coronoavirus in goats). It is a fairly reductionist approach as the total case number is not merely a function of population, but is dependent on a variety of factors such as:

a) number of travel-related cases and when they arrived

b) measures (or lack thereof) implemented by the government

c) infection clusters-evidence suggest that cases cluster together and only spread somewhat slower outside these clusters so travel within a country is also relevant

and perhaps the most important factor:

d) testing rate, Indonesia has very low test rates (as mentioned above) and also a relative high positive return on tests, further indicating undertesting.

 

 

 

[PhilGeis]

James - numbers aside, what is your hypothesis and ho would you test?

Edited June 3, 2020 by PhilGeis

[dimreepr]

On 6/1/2020 at 8:45 PM, JamesVa94 said:

While reading The Modern Prometheus the other day, a specific passage got my attention; the one where Frankenstein meets two of his college teachers, the one being Krempe who told him to discard all of the ancient natural philosophy knowlegde he had, and rather gaze to modern forms of it. The other, professor Waldman, who instead tells Frakenstein not to discard said knowledge at all, for that is the base and core of everything we've achieved so far.

They're the same, the only problem is when spiritualism is mistaken for magic; for instance quarantine and the magical 40 days spent in the wilderness.

[JamesVa94]

4 hours ago, PhilGeis said:

James - numbers aside, what is your hypothesis and ho would you test?

The same as Jenner's. The reservoir is in direct and constant connvivance with the people. For the Cowpox it was the farmers who where in direct contact with the cows that noticed they weren't being affected of smallpox that severely, yet, they didn't knew the cause of it until Edward came with his research. 

Same could be the case in here. Indonesian people, mostly islam believers attribute their high resilience to the COVID-19 to their prayers, wich they also perform in high clusters of people gathered in one place. This could potentially mean that the reservoir is in direct connvivance with them, i specifically focus on this culture because they have a regulated way of living and interacting with the world and animals according to their beliefs.

If we link that with Ningxia (islamic region in china) also being the second region less affected in china we get stronger support of the theory.

[PhilGeis]

James - again what is hypothesis and  exp. design, simply stated, without reference or discussion.

[JamesVa94]

3 hours ago, PhilGeis said:

James - again what is hypothesis and  exp. design, simply stated, without reference or discussion.

Research the highest human-animal connvivance species in this regions. Based on their connvivance, take the possible CORONA hosts and expose them to the virus via inoculation. 

Taking again the goats example: have two of them directly inoculated, while two other just keep them in close connvivance with the inoculated ones to asses the possible contagion.

[dimreepr]

22 hours ago, JamesVa94 said:

The same as Jenner's. The reservoir is in direct and constant connvivance with the people. For the Cowpox it was the farmers who where in direct contact with the cows that noticed they weren't being affected of smallpox that severely, yet, they didn't knew the cause of it until Edward came with his research. 

Same could be the case in here. Indonesian people, mostly islam believers attribute their high resilience to the COVID-19 to their prayers, wich they also perform in high clusters of people gathered in one place. This could potentially mean that the reservoir is in direct connvivance with them, i specifically focus on this culture because they have a regulated way of living and interacting with the world and animals according to their beliefs.

If we link that with Ningxia (islamic region in china) also being the second region less affected in china we get stronger support of the theory.

No, we just get examples of magic over science.

And I'm, possibly, your best advocate for the benefits of religion, on this site.

[JamesVa94]

8 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

No, we just get examples of magic over science.

And I'm, possibly, your best advocate for the benefits of religion, on this site.

No, you're missing the point. They believe their karma and prayers protects them, wich in turn they decide to ignore the proper sanitary measures and still show a low contagion rate. 

The thing here is that it's not their prayers or the karma, much like the cows with the farmers, it could be the reservoir that creates a strong resilience to the virus. 

Let's take cultural beliefs as just variables. Toss religion aside, the reason they decide to ignore the sanitary measures could be anything else.

[dimreepr]

5 minutes ago, JamesVa94 said:

No, you're missing the point.

Then you're going to have clarify your point in much more detail.

7 minutes ago, JamesVa94 said:

it could be the reservoir that creates a strong resilience to the virus. 

Any reservoir that contains legionnaires disease, is a source of infection.

[JamesVa94]

4 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

Then you're going to have clarify your point in much more detail.

Any reservoir that contains legionnaires disease, is a source of infection.

Alright, we have a community that seems to have a strong resilience to the virus, low contagion rate considering their population. 

¿What do we know about it? ¿What is their culture, how do they live? That's the point to mention cultural beliefs here, because it gives us information about their way of life and how they interact with the world around them. 

This was vital in the case of Jenner's smallpox. Farmers don't get smallpox, ¿Why, how do they live, what kind of interaction with the world around them do they have? This information allows to select the posible CORONA reservoirs, and narrow it down to the ones the community has a strong connvivance with them.

[dimreepr]

2 minutes ago, JamesVa94 said:

Alright, we have a community that seems to have a strong resilience to the virus, low contagion rate considering their population. 

All we know is, we have a community that seems to have avoided contamination.

And since this pandemic has been called "the rich disease", it's perfectly plausible that a poor community has not been in touch with a rich one...

[PhilGeis]

"Research" is an activity and goat "example" is speculation.  What is your hypothesis?