MonteCarlo Method for 1 person

[zak100]

Hi,

 

I have a question which I want to solve using MonteCarlo Method

Suppose we have a car for sale and a buyer is 65% satisfied with the price of the car, 75% satisfied with the outlook of the car like its body, color, tires and 85%  satisfied with the running i.e. the engine? What is the probability that the car would be sold to the said buyer? How we can do a simulation using Monte Carlo Method? 

 

I found the answer as: 0.65 * 0.75 * 0.85 = 0.4143

 

Is this a correct solution? Also please tell me can I use MoteCarlo method for one person?

 

Zulfi.

 

 

[mathematic]

You have assumed the buyer's "satisfactions" are independent, which may not be true.

[zak100]

Hi,

Thanks for your response. I don't know how can I make buyers satisfactions dependent. I am assuming that buyer's satisfaction depends upon price of the car, outlook of the car and engine of the car based upon the probability values. Please guide me how can I make buyer's satisfactions in a proper manner. I think I am not able to understand this concept properly. 

 

Please help me to improve this problem and also my solution in the context of MonteCarlo.

 

Zulfi.

[mathematic]

Real world complication example:  how willing the buyer is willing to pay a given price will strongly correlate how well the care is running.