What are your thoughts on the Presidential Debate ?

[StringJunky]

5 minutes ago, iNow said:

Also likely a major part of his game plan... distract. 

Notice how everyone is talking about what a fuster cluck this debate was instead of covid deaths, his failure to pay taxes, his fraudulent funneling of money to his kids, him being a failed businessman, their hypocritical and rushed lifetime appointments to the Supreme Court, continued Russian election meddling, etc...

True.

[Sensei]

2 hours ago, koti said:

He also said "Stop yappin", "Shush" etc.
I think this is largely how Trump wins his arguments - He pisses you off and then takes advantage of it. Biden did a horrible job in this debate, he should have been ice cold and destroy POTUS with merritt but he fell into his emotional traps instead. 

Coin has two sides, Paul. If he wouldn't react, D.T. supporters could say 'see how he is neuter'...

 

I am waiting for the battle of presidents-to-be in some computer RTS game between them broadcasted on-line to the people (eSport -> ePolitics). Let them fight in some real-time strategy game. It would be funnier than debate (or debacle). If someone can't win simulated game, how can he or she wins in "the real world"? *)

In RTS game, players start with the same amount of goods (typically), unlike "the real world", where some gets access to nuclear bombs and nuclear rockets arsenal straight away, while they did not even pass IQ nor mental stability tests etc etc..

 

*) To win in RTS (after the initial stage) typical route is: zero (or almost zero) taxes to citizens... And it works regardless of which RTS you are playing...

Funny... none currently living politician use this route... Every single teenager, or ex-teenager in western world knows it since '90! (at least should knows it!)

It was used by the past leaders hundred+ years ago.. Worked until kings started to need more money for wars with neighborhood countries..

 

Instead of this silly "I challenge you" conquest on Twitter/Facebook/Instagram etc. to do something usually silly, one politician from 1st country should say, "I am challenging you" to politician from 2nd country, and let RTS game tournament begin. Observers watch the play worldwide. Instead of the real war, have online game play..

 

Kids born in the modern times (after 2k) know this, old kids (50-80 years old) had no chance to play, and win or lose, thousands of battles, so they want to start the real battles, in the real wars, with the real victims, with the real dead people..

Edited September 30, 2020 by Sensei

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Also likely a major part of his game plan... distract. 

Notice how everyone is talking about what a fuster cluck this debate was instead of covid deaths, his failure to pay taxes, his fraudulent funneling of money to his kids, him being a failed businessman, their hypocritical and rushed lifetime appointments to the Supreme Court, continued Russian election meddling, etc...

To be fair, do you think that any of these issues need more highlighting. I mean, if you are undecided on these issues, you are living so deep under a rock that you won't be able to watch the debate anyway. 

 

2 hours ago, koti said:

he should have been ice cold and destroy POTUS with merritt but he fell into his emotional traps instead. 

That was pretty much the strategy of the Clinton campaign. 

[Sensei]

41 minutes ago, CharonY said:

That was pretty much the strategy of the Clinton campaign. 

H.Clinton got 2 millions+ votes more than D.T. It is not her fault that you have screwed up, obsolete voting system, where in some states people vote directly, and some other states people vote indirectly, but through "electors".

In XVIII and early XIX century, such technique had some sense, because there was no instant direct reliable communication system between states which are thousands kilometers away..

 

It should be asked on US universities on IT lessons: make algorithm calculating how much more you can have votes for opponent, and still win when you have majority in electrical states..

(every US president-to-be would be using it....)

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Sensei

[Ten oz]

3 hours ago, StringJunky said:

Would you consider David Attenborough too old at 94? He's still sharp and knocking out programmes. Ginsberg at 87 on the SC. Chronological age doesn't mean much.

Princeton did a study of the impact that public support for particular policy ideas had and found it wasn't much. How the majority of the U.S. felt wasn't very influential regarding which policies passed or fail. Rather corporate preferences had the prominent influence.

The system simply isn't working for the majority of people and most realize it. However few have form ideas about in what ways it is broken or how to fix it. So we get competing groups calling for various changes: term limits for Congress & SCOTUS, eliminating the electoral college, age limits, voting holiday, etc, etc, etc. In my opinion few such proposals get at the heart of the problem. We allow politicians to cheat.

Take a look at Florida. Despite state law allowing those with felonies to get their voting rights restored after a period of time state officials would decline nearly all requests. Over a million people were denied the right to vote in elections all over the state where the those officials political Party was repeating squeaking out victories by sometimes just hundreds of votes. Then the law was changed via a voter supported referendum. So in response the state officials, same one who won tight elections because over a million people couldn't vote, instituted a fine of up to $1,500 to have ones voting rights restore. They just bypassed the referendum and added on this huge expensive only a minority of people can possibly afford. Yet Florida doesn't lose electoral influence in national elections or anything. Florida still gets to be just as impactful to the General Election as it always is despite the fact the state has a demonstratively corrupt system that disenfranchises significant portions of its voters.

Term limits, age limits, voting holidays, etc won't fix that. As a nation we are disgusting apathetic towards the way Politicians pick their voters rather than vice versa.

 

 

[iNow]

Something a bit lighter. So good and so quickly done!

 

1 hour ago, CharonY said:

do you think that any of these issues need more highlighting.

Yes. The more they’re mentioned, the more it hurts him with voters. 

1 hour ago, Sensei said:

H.Clinton got 2 millions+ votes more than D.T

Almost 3M, actually. 2,864,974 more

Edited October 1, 2020 by iNow

[CharonY]

10 minutes ago, iNow said:

Yes. The more they’re mentioned, the more it hurts him with voters. 

It is a sad state of affairs when it comes down preventing a disaster to take office again. But almost by necessity it does mean that it will overshadow any policy talks. You may be right, it might influence voters, but probably more in terms of actually casting a vote rather than addressing who to vote for. I mean, the only other model would be one in which folks immediately forget everything that is happening around them the second it is not on TV anymore.

... actually, maybe I need to revise my thinking of this situation.

[iNow]

17 minutes ago, CharonY said:

but probably more in terms of actually casting a vote rather than addressing who to vote for

Exactly. Trump will get crushed nationwide in the popular vote, but margins in key electoral states will likely be super tight. If you can drive just a handful more of your own voters to come out and just a handful of your opponents voters to stay home then that may just be enough to turn the the election. 

After all, it was only 79,646 total votes cast across three states that gave this horrible human being, fraudster, and grifter the presidency in the first place. Imagine if just a few more came out or just a few more stayed home...

23 minutes ago, CharonY said:

actually, maybe I need to revise my thinking of this situation.

Lol. Exactly 

[Ten oz]

21 minutes ago, CharonY said:

It is a sad state of affairs when it comes down preventing a disaster to take office again. But almost by necessity it does mean that it will overshadow any policy talks. You may be right, it might influence voters, but probably more in terms of actually casting a vote rather than addressing who to vote for. I mean, the only other model would be one in which folks immediately forget everything that is happening around them the second it is not on TV anymore.

... actually, maybe I need to revise my thinking of this situation.

Trump with the help of McConnell and the compliance of the Republican party at large has exercised as much authority as any POTUS in my lifetime. Yet beyond cutting taxes there isn't any signature policies Trump & Republicans have passed or pursued. After years of Repeal and Replace rhetoric Republican not only didn't actually how a Repeal/Replace plan ready they haven't shown interest in coming up with one. Rather Republicans mostly seem focused on packing courts and blocking Democrats proposals. The RNC didn't even bother to release a platform. They just pushed 2016's back out without even updating it to reflect they've be in power for the last few year.

I honestly do not know what Republicans stand for anymore. I know their supporters are angry and winning more power is what they lust for most but I don't know to what end? Republicans don't seem to be interested in policy at all. Democrats cannot debate Republicans on policy positions Republicans don't have. I am not sure how a candidate like Biden (Harris, Warren, Booker, Castro, etc) could engage with that audience. The disagreements aren't rooted in policy. 

25 minutes ago, iNow said:

After all, it was only 79,646 total votes cast across three states that gave this horrible human being, fraudster, and grifter the presidency in the first place. Imagine if just a few more came out or just a few more stayed home...

Imagine if everyone had equal access to vote.

Trump isn't trying to win a few more votes. Trump hasn't taken one step to broaden his appeal or get more voters to come out. What Trump has done is sabotage the Postal Services ability to process mail in ballots. State by state Republicans have exploited local laws to the maximum to restrict prior felons from voting, limited polling stations, denied funding required for election administration, etc. It is absolutely disgusting that it is an open secret than Biden cannot win a close race. Biden either wins in a landslide or it is 4 more years of Trump.

[iNow]

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

The disagreements aren't rooted in policy. 

By fairly large margins, when polled the majority of Americans support the items in the democratic platform. What they don’t support are the flat one-dimensional caricatures like socialism used to fear monger them. 

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

What Trump has done is sabotage the Postal Services ability to process mail in ballots. State by state Republicans have exploited local laws to the maximum to restrict prior felons from voting, limited polling stations, denied funding required for election administration, etc.

All true, and agree disgusting, but more than that it’s about sowing doubt in the process itself... convincing just enough people to stay home since the system is “rigged” and that it’s pointless to even try because their vote “won’t count” anyway. 

You don’t have to beat the chess master by planning 3 moves ahead when you can instead use a drill and saw to make the board itself no longer capable of holding up the pieces. 

It’s made worse by the fact that he’s inciting his own followers to destroy ballots and show up at polling places to intimidate voters and engage in vigilantism.  

1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

Biden either wins in a landslide or it is 4 more years of Trump

It’s a long-shot, but my deepest hope for election night is that Florida and Pennsylvania both come in for Biden early in the night. Game over. Go to bed. Nightmare almost over. 

They’ll both be close, though, and ballot counting will continue for several days... and IMO Trump is likely to take Florida given the way he’s been juicing the margins... appealing to Cubans with new sanctions against cigars and Rum (and talking up the evils of socialism from which they fled to America with their families) and giving millions of dollars on prescription gift cards to the elderly, etc. 

Edited October 1, 2020 by iNow

[koti]

8 hours ago, iNow said:

Something a bit lighter. So good and so quickly done!

 

I never thought I'd say these words but Weird Al comes across as very soothing in all this.

Edited October 1, 2020 by koti

[Ten oz]

7 hours ago, iNow said:

They’ll both be close, though, and ballot counting will continue for several days... and IMO Trump is likely to take Florida given the way he’s been juicing the margins... appealing to Cubans with new sanctions against cigars and Rum (and talking up the evils of socialism from which they fled to America with their families) and giving millions of dollars on prescription gift cards to the elderly, etc. 

While Trump seeks to manipulate in plain view the issue goes far beyond Trump. Red Shift has been a feature in U.S. elections for decades and has only gotten worse. Errors and anomalies will float Trump and down ballot Republicans 2-4 points in States like AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, WI, etc.

My belief is that on Election night Trump will start declaring victory in key states soon as the polls close. Trump will declare victory in FL, GA, OH, etc. Media pundits will cover him doing so. Pundits will caution that Trump declarations aren't official but won't be too aggressive about it. It is always seems important that everyone who isn't Trump stay professional. In declaring victory Trump will demand various states certify him the winner. Trump and Republicans officials in those states will start questioning efforts to complete counts. It will generate a lot of confusion. Some officials may actually just stop counting and defer to the courts for guidance. It will only get messier from there as state by state there are different laws on the books dictating rules and timelines for recounts, how long uncounted votes can sit, deadlines for results, and so on. Depending on how long courts take to step in and how brazenly some local officials sabotage/exploit the process we may run past critical local deadlines which make achieving full initial counts next to impossible. Think FL 00' but in several states at once.

I suspect the chaos will be successful in states like FL, GA, an TX. Races were STOLEN in those states back on 2018 and it didn't even involve a President on TV claiming victory and threatening to investigate and file lawsuits. None of those states have done anything to fix their processes since. So I assume they are potentially unwinnable for Biden. Election Night and the week following will be an absolute nightmare. I keep reading people confidently referencing the law and insisting Trump can't just declare himself the winner but for 4yrs now I have repeated seen Trump openly break the law without ramifications: Emoluments Clause, Hatch Act, Logan Act, Nepotism, Obstruction of Justice, Campaign Finance, etc. I've seen no evidence that our system of checks and balances is capable restraining Trump. If Trump declares he won FL and DeSantis comes out and says the same I think Trump wins FL. Sure there will be some hand wringing in FL's Attorney General's office but they will make it work.

My guess is it will come down to the Senate. If Republicans believe they kept they Senate they will hold ranks behind Trump during the chaos in the days following the elections. If Republicans project they lost the Senate they won't.

[dimreepr]

I recently watched a documentary "Grayson Perry's American road trip" in which a select group from Martha's vineyard, at a dinner party, he asked them a very pertinent question, "how much are you, the liberal elite, responsible for Trump?"; Ironically, he got a very angry denial, along the lines of "how dare you pidgeon hole, us!!!".

I have to wonder, at what point on the spectrum (liberal elite's to conservative elite's) does the understanding begin?

[iNow]

7 hours ago, koti said:

I never thought I'd say these words but Weird Al comes across as very soothing in all this.

Funny. Completely same feeling from me. It's strangely stress reducing  

5 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Errors and anomalies will float Trump and down ballot Republicans 2-4 points in States like AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, WI, etc.

I tend to agree and you're very likely right, but I believe it's less certain for those other states that aren't Florida or Georgia. Margins in Arizona look pretty good, as do MI and Wi... and IA has Trump leading, but that lead is shrinking. We'll see... Joni Ernst is also in the race of her life right now, but her opponent frankly isn't terribly compelling

5 hours ago, Ten oz said:

I keep reading people confidently referencing the law and insisting Trump can't just declare himself the winner but for 4yrs now I have repeated seen Trump openly break the law without ramifications: Emoluments Clause, Hatch Act, Logan Act, Nepotism, Obstruction of Justice, Campaign Finance, etc. I've seen no evidence that our system of checks and balances is capable restraining Trump.

QFT. People need to stop assuming previous standards and norms will apply and prepare for a hostile takeover of the country... ala a coup

2 hours ago, dimreepr said:

I have to wonder, at what point on the spectrum (liberal elite's to conservative elite's) does the understanding begin?

Probably at the point where you stop trying to pigeonhole people in simplistic one-dimensional frames like liberal and conservative

[dimreepr]

7 minutes ago, iNow said:

Probably at the point where you stop trying to pigeonhole people in simplistic one-dimensional frames like liberal and conservative

What about elite?

[iNow]

See above

[Ten oz]

2 hours ago, iNow said:

I tend to agree and you're very likely right, but I believe it's less certain for those other states that aren't Florida or Georgia. Margins in Arizona look pretty good, as do MI and Wi... and IA has Trump leading, but that lead is shrinking. We'll see... Joni Ernst is also in the race of her life right now, but her opponent frankly isn't terribly compelling

in 2016 Trump beat Realclearpolitic's aggregated polling by 7% in WI. Fivethirtyeight gave Clinton a 83.5% chance of winning WI which was better than Clinton's overall chance of winning the White House. In MI Trump beat aggregated polling by 4% and 538 gave Clinton 79% of winning which was also greater than her overall.

You are probably correct about AZ and IA. Nothing strange there. The numbers actually surprised me when I looked them up. Both finished within decimals of a percent of their polling in 2016. Which isn't to say I think every state will mirror polling. WI and MI had issues (see below). So I think MI & WI are right there with FL & GA as virtually unwinnable by anything less than robust margins.
 

Quote

 

"According to federal court records, 300,000 registered voters, 9 percent of the electorate, lacked strict forms of voter ID in Wisconsin. A new study by Priorities USA, shared exclusively with The Nation, shows that strict voter-ID laws, in Wisconsin and other states, led to a significant reduction in voter turnout in 2016, with a disproportionate impact on African-American and Democratic-leaning voters. Wisconsin’s voter-ID law reduced turnout by 200,000 votes, according to the new analysis. Donald Trump won the state by only 22,748 votes. "

"More than 80 voting machines in Detroit malfunctioned on Election Day, officials say, resulting in ballot discrepancies in 59% of precincts that raise questions about the reliability of future election results in a city dominated by Democratic and minority voters."

 

 

[John Cuthber]

The polling probably doesn't take account of voter intimidation which trump seems to be relying on this time.

[iNow]

Surely you don’t mean his “army of supporters” who are “desperately needed to ensure the Democrats don’t steal this election!”

 

[CharonY]

Only peripheral related, but Trump was tested positive for COVID-19. That could shake up the campaign a bit, depending on hot the progression is.

Also shows that no-one is fully safe.

[Ten oz]

4 hours ago, CharonY said:

Only peripheral related, but Trump was tested positive for COVID-19. That could shake up the campaign a bit, depending on hot the progression is.

Also shows that no-one is fully safe.

Trump has antagonized people for wear masks, insisted on holding rallies, repeated said re-opening is more important than further safety, and stood on the debate stage criticizing Biden. It is stunning full circle moment where all the undermining and downplaying is coming back at once. Trump has also spoken a lot about how young people are nearly immune and only older people get sick. Trump is 74yrs olds. Herman Cain was 74yrs old.

It is a really good thing the customary handshaking before and after the debate didn't happen. That moment of social distancing is now a solid example to all.

[koti]

7 hours ago, CharonY said:

Only peripheral related, but Trump was tested positive for COVID-19. That could shake up the campaign a bit, depending on hot the progression is.

Also shows that no-one is fully safe.

I’m pretty sure he’s got Covid-20. Covid-20 is much better than Covid-19 and POTUS has a tremendous relationship with Covid-20, much better than Covid-19.

Edited October 2, 2020 by koti

[dimreepr]

I have to wonder what will improve, if he looses? 

[iNow]

1 hour ago, dimreepr said:

I have to wonder what will improve, if he looses? 

Unsure, but it's also an open question about what happens if he loses!

We might look to the post-civil war era, or post civil-rights era for examples on how a deeply divided country begins to heal. Summarized, I imagine our relationship with other nations will get better again, and government norms will begin to restore, and new legislation will be passed to prevent some of these same things from happening again in the future, but that the populace itself will continue to divide from within and argue based on conspiracy theories and nonsense... we are dividing and conquering ourselves sadly, and an election loss from Trump won't magically fix that. 

9 hours ago, CharonY said:

Trump was tested positive for COVID-19

I'm not entirely comfortable with the level of schadenfreude I'm feeling right now

[StringJunky]

8 minutes ago, iNow said:

I'm not entirely comfortable with the level of schadenfreude I'm feeling right now

It could swing it any way.... it ain't over 'til it's over. It could be seen as a 'deep state' plot to knobble their man by Antifa. Would Pence be the nominee if Trump is out of it?

Edited October 2, 2020 by StringJunky