Final Popular Vote Tally Estimate

[Airbrush]

Based on data available today 11-23-2020 with 98% popular votes counted.  Please check my math: 🙂

Biden     79.8 M

Trump    73.8 M

Total    153.6 M (million votes counted already)

Total votes already counted as 98% (153.6/98 = 1.57) x 2 = 3.13 million votes yet to be counted.  So Biden gets 51.95% (79.8/153.6) of the remaining 3.1 million votes to be counted (0.5195 x 3.1 = 1.61) and Trump gets 48.05% of the remaining 3.1 million votes (0.4805 x 3.1 = 1.49).

So based on current proportions in the popular vote, Biden should have a final total of 79.8 + 1.61 = 81.4 and for Trump 73.8 + 1.5 = 75.3

Final vote tally estimate:

Biden     81.4 million votes

Trump    75.3 million votes

Total     156.7 million votes

Biden will beat Trump by 6.1 million votes.  Does anyone get a different estimate?  Let's see how far off I am when the count is done. 😃

Edited November 23, 2020 by Airbrush

[John Cuthber]

I doubt it will matter much but the "late" votes are often postal.

Trump told his minions not to use postal voting.
So postal votes will be disproportionately from Biden supporters.
The tricky question is by how much?

 

[Airbrush]

On 11/23/2020 at 2:15 PM, John Cuthber said:

I doubt it will matter much but the "late" votes are often postal.

Trump told his minions not to use postal voting.
So postal votes will be disproportionately from Biden supporters.
The tricky question is by how much?

Very good point John, thanks.  That is a likelihood.  So with that in mind, with 3.1 million votes uncounted, Biden's total tally could be at most  79.8 + 3.1 = 82.9, if all the uncounted are Biden votes.  The range would be:

Biden     81.4 to 82.9 (let's call it 81 to 83 million votes)

Trump   73.8 to 75.3 (74 to 75 million votes)

[John Cuthber]

Realistically, it will be somewhere in between.

 

[Airbrush]

Today, on Nov 27, the vote count is still 98% counted and 2% not counted.

Comparing the vote count at Nov 13 to Nov 23, a period of 10 days, Biden got 60% and Trump got 40% of the LATE counted votes.

When you compare the next 4 days (Nov 23 - Nov 27), Biden got 66% and Trump got only 33%.  So Trump's share of late votes is declining.

Trump may not get more than 74 million votes, and Biden will end up with close to 83 million votes, which is a difference of 9 million votes.  It took 2 weeks to count only one percent of the late votes and 2% remain to be counted.

The 3rd most votes went to Jo Jorgensen who got about 1.9 million votes.

 

Edited November 27, 2020 by Airbrush

[Airbrush]

On 11/27/2020 at 11:06 AM, Airbrush said:

Today, on Nov 27, the vote count is still 98% counted and 2% not counted.

Comparing the vote count at Nov 13 to Nov 23, a period of 10 days, Biden got 60% and Trump got 40% of the LATE counted votes.

When you compare the next 4 days (Nov 23 - Nov 27), Biden got 66% and Trump got only 33%.  So Trump's share of late votes is declining.

Trump may not get more than 74 million votes, and Biden will end up with close to 83 million votes, which is a difference of 9 million votes.

Final tally:  Biden 81.0 million votes,  Trump 74.1 million votes, so Biden wins by 6.9 million votes.

popular vote 2020 election - Bing

Edited December 3, 2020 by Airbrush

[MigL]

26 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

so Biden wins by 6.9 million votes.

Actually, no.
J Biden wins by Electoral College certified votes; not the popular vote.
And sore Losers seem to think they win by repeating the phrase "election fraud" on the news.

Where do you think you live, Airbrush; in a country where elections make sense  ?

Edited December 3, 2020 by MigL

[Ten oz]

Trump losing the popular vote by 7 million is even more significant considering the investment Republicans have made in voter suppression. Thousands of polling locations have been closed, new registration laws instituted, new deadlines, ballots designed to confuse, etc, etc. In the past Republicans hid their efforts but in the months leading up to this election were brazen about their desire to prevent people from voting. Despite the carefully imposed inconveniences Biden received 7 million more votes. I think it is obvious the number would have easily been in the double digits if elections were manage in good faith. Trump won NC by a percent and Texas by just 5.5%. Both potentially would've been Biden's if not for disenfranchisement.

 

I keep seeing people discuss that we (USA) is a divided nation and implying we are split equally but that isn't true. Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 general elections. won the popular vote by millions that last 4 straight general election. The majority of the nation has a preference.