Gaza Withdrawal

[Pangloss]

So what do you all think of the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip this week? I think it's quite a development myself. If you'd told me just a year or two ago that Ariel Sharon, of all people, would remove those settlements, I'd have said you were nuts.

 

Will this further the road to peace in the region?

[CPL.Luke]

I believe it will aid in the peace process. Especially because now our continued backing of israel may not be seen as such a threat to the muslim world

[5614]

I believe it goes one of 3 ways:

 

1) Everyone's happy, peaceful world.

 

2) Either Hamas take political control in the next election or they take control via violence and that, well, if it's political it could end up like #1, but probably not. So it's not such a good ending.

 

3) Israel is asked to withdraw from the Westbank which firstly there is too many people to remove via force and secondly I don't believe it will happen in any situation.

 

When Likud (Sharon's political party) was voted in it would never (with those policies that the Israeli's voted for) withdraw from Gaza, indeed Sharon had to sack several members of his party who supported the policies with which they were voted in (as opposed to the new withdrawl policy) so I don't know when the next election is, but I have doubts whether Sharon will stay on and it makes me wonder what the next person will be like.

[Pangloss]

Right, I believe the general consensus of observers is that Netanyahu (sp?) may try to take control of the party and become leader again, pushing Sharon out. Or at least there has been a lot of speculation in that direction over the past week or two, since he left Sharon's cabinet.

[Skye]

It depends what Israel does next. There's no-one on the Palestinian side, that I've heard anyway, that accepts this as a lasting compromise deal. It's seen as a first step to a Palestinian state that either includes some of Jerusalem (the Palestinian Authority's plans) or the whole of Israel (Islamic Jihad and Hamas). I think most Palestinian's would be happy with the PA position, but obviously there's a long way to go. If there is continued progress towards that goal then peace might continue. The difficulties getting such a minor pull out as this through the parliament probably mean it'll be violence again though. It'll be interesting to see how Israel uses the new Palestinian state to try to win the propaganda war.

[Pangloss]

Questions to ponder:

 

- What is Israel's next move? Should they or will they pull out of the West Bank and/or Jerusalem?

 

- Is a brokered peace possible that leaves some settlements in territory not part of Israel's original charter?

[Severian]

- What is Israel's next move? Should they or will they pull out of the West Bank and/or Jerusalem?

 

The should' date=' but they won't.

 

- Is a brokered peace possible that leaves some settlements in territory not part of Israel's original charter?

 

I don't think so. Realistically, the violence will only stop once the terrorists no longer have any motivation to continue. As long as Israel exists, there will be extremist factions out to get them.

 

If Israel pulls out of the West Bank, pulls out of East Jerusalem, gives Palestinians (and their descendents) the right to return to 'Israel' as citizens (with full rights), and becomes a secular democracy (rather than a Jewish one), then maybe the terrorists will stop. But that will never happen.

 

The Palestinian Authority may make a deal, but if it doesn't have the support of the people it is worthless.

[Skye]

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said on Monday Israel would need to scrap further West Bank settlements under any final peace deal with Palestinians but would never cede its biggest enclaves in the occupied territory.

 

He was speaking a week after uprooting Jewish settlers from all 21 enclaves in Gaza and four of about 120 in the West Bank to "disengage" from conflict in occupied territory. U.S.-led mediators see the move as a catalyst for future peacemaking.

 

"Not all the settlements in Judea and Samaria today will remain ... when (we have completed) the last stage of the 'road map'," Sharon said, using biblical names for the West Bank and referring to an internationally-backed peace plan.

 

Sharon stressed any such decision would only be part of a permanent peace accord, a position that enables him to balance world demands for a viable Palestinian state against a domestic political need to boost his support in the rightist Likud Party.

 

"Road map" talks are unlikely to start at least until after general elections in Israel and the Palestinian territories due next year.

 

Sharon did not say how many more settlements might be abandoned. Dov Weisglass, a senior aide to Sharon, has said Israel expected 180,000 of some 245,000 Jewish settlers could remain as part of a final peace deal, with U.S. approval.

 

Israel removed all 8,500 settlers from Gaza and 500 from the West Bank this month -- the first dismantling of Jewish enclaves from land Palestinians want for a state.

 

But Sharon repeated in his remarks on Channel 10 television Israel would never give up West Bank settlement blocs where the majority of settlers live among 2.4 million Palestinians.

 

"These settlements will remain in our hands and will be linked territorially to Israel. These blocs have first rate strategic importance for Israel," he said.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2005-08-29T213651Z_01_KNE826563_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-MIDEAST-DC.XML

[Douglas]

- What is Israel's next move? Should they or will they pull out of the West Bank and/or Jerusalem?

They'll probably give up the portion of the West bank that they did NOT re-occupy in 2000-2002.

[ElijahJones]

If I were to predict and I am usually wrong. I would guess that Sharon is going to feel compelled to negotiate quickly the fate of the West Bank settlements in exchange for compromise over Jerusalem. I think the realistic person on both sides realize that Jerusalem will have to be shared and that concessions in the West Bank on both sides might grease the wheels a bit. Also there is an issue of a secure highway between the West Bank and Gaza, Palestinian air and sea access. Those issues must be addresed so the Palestinitan people can become a part of the world market and begin developing infrastructure. In the last five years Israel has destroyed most of the infrastructure so the economy is sorely lacking. Once they start getting a little prosperity and a reprieve from violence on both sides the peace loving will grow strong. At some point their desire for a civil society will immediately criminalize any group paracticing terror or insiting it. That's the peace process my friends in a nutshell. I think that Abbas will follow through though he sometimes panders to Hamas. One good sign is that Hamas is going to take part in the upcoming elections but I expect trouble from them for many years to come. On the Israeli side Sharon is on a new course but I think Shimon Peres is the man to broker the final deal. Netanyahu is not a man to increase hostilities but he has a dogmatic view about the settlements, a view that Sharon has realized is untenable.

[Pangloss]

Skye's post seems to confirm that their thinking is to give up the lesser settlements and focus on retaining the major/older ones. I'm afraid that the hurricane and school work has kept me from keeping up to date on this, but that would be consistent with earlier articles I've read on the subject.

 

What matters, in the end, is that the two parties hammer something out, and then STICK to it.